eric boldt warning coordination meteorologist national weather service los angeles/oxnard august 20,...
TRANSCRIPT
Eric BoldtWarning Coordination MeteorologistNational Weather Service Los Angeles/OxnardAugust 20, 2015
EL NIÑO OUTLOOK 2015-16
• Ocean continues to reflect sustained and strengthening El Niño conditions
• Greater than 90% chance of an El Niño this winter
• Forecasters unanimously favor a “strong” category
Latest ENSO* InformationAugust 2015
El Niño Advisory in effect
* ENSO stands for El Niño Southern Oscillation
Normal Pacific Pattern
El Niño Pattern
Global Satellite on August 12, 2015
Clouds
Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies Last Four Weeks
Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies – One Year
Latest weekly (Aug. 17) value of Niño 3.4
region is +2.0° C
Sub-Surface Temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific (0-300m)
Comparison of SSH - 1997, 2015
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
- Cool phase since 1997- Warm phase past year
ENSO Model Predictions
Neutral
Summer Winter
Weak to Moderate
Strong
Classic El Niño Winter Impacts
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
21.59
18.9320.89
33.19
20.86
30.57
Past Strong (6) El Nino Rainfall in Los Angeles CA[includes 4-year prior rainfall]
Inch
es
?
1957-58 1965-66 1982-83 1991-92 1997-98 2015-16
53-54
61-62
68-69
87-88
11-12
1972-73
78-79
average
93-94
• El Niño tilts the odds of above normal rainfall for southwest California this winter
• The strength of this El Niño is the most difficult prediction; favors a strong event
• One El Niño winter season will not end the drought (over 30” rainfall deficit in 4-years)
• Prior to the rainy season, we should be prepared for a dangerous wildfire season
Conclusions
Thank You!805-988-6623 [email protected]
weather.gov/losangeles
@NWSLosAngeles weather.gov/losangeles NWSLosAngeles