energy: the next fifty years › 2014 › 08 › ... · 8/26/2014 · las 493 energy storage...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Energy: the Next Fifty Years › 2014 › 08 › ... · 8/26/2014 · LAS 493 Energy Storage University of Illinois at Chicago August 26, 2014 Energy, society and science: The fifty-year](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070816/5f106c617e708231d4490983/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
LAS 493 Energy Storage University of Illinois at Chicago
August 26, 2014
Messages
Energy determines the aspirations and limitations of society
Vibrant global society in fifty years requires strategic energy decisions now
Top priorities for energy and society in fifty years
Discovery science is the low cost engine of innovation for energy and society
Energy: the Next Fifty Years George Crabtree
Departments of Physics, Electrical and Mechanical Engineering
University of Illinois at Chicago and
Director, Joint Center for Energy Storage Research Argonne National Laboratory
Elizabeth Kocs Thomas Aláan
University of Illinois at Chicago
![Page 2: Energy: the Next Fifty Years › 2014 › 08 › ... · 8/26/2014 · LAS 493 Energy Storage University of Illinois at Chicago August 26, 2014 Energy, society and science: The fifty-year](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070816/5f106c617e708231d4490983/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
LAS 493 Energy Storage University of Illinois at Chicago
August 26, 2014
Energy, society and science: The fifty-year scenario
George Crabtree a,b, Elizabeth Kocs c,*, Thomas Alaan c
a Departments of Physics, Electrical and Mechanical Engineering, University of Illinois at Chicago, 845 W. Taylor Street, Chicago, IL 60607,USAb Materials Science Division, Argonne National Laboratory, 9700 S. Cass Avenue, Argonne, IL 60439, USAc The Energy Initiative, University of Illinois at Chicago, 845 W. Taylor Street, Chicago, IL 60607, USA
1. Introduction
The next fifty years will witness historic transitions in energy and society. Sustainable energy technologies such as wind,solar, biofuels, carbon sequestration, and electric vehicles are growing in our energy profile [1]. The old paradigm of a fewtechnologically and economically advanced countries dominating the global stage is giving way to the growing aspirationsand greater participation of developing countries in world affairs, driven by their desire to secure the societal benefits ofeconomic growth and advanced technology. Increased globalization driven by widespread education, communication, trade,and exchange of people and ideas provides the means for developing countries to achieve their economic and technologicalaspirations. It is increasingly recognized that a high standard of living is a dynamic benefit: continuous and significantadvances in science, technology, innovation, and competitiveness are critical to achieving and maintaining a high qualityof life.
2. Energy and society in fifty years
Energy is a basic human need, like food, shelter and mobility, pervading all aspects of our personal, professional, civic andinternational lives. Access to energy enables or limits human aspirations, as reflected in the correlation of energyconsumption with the human development index [2]. The societal benefits of technology, including modern energy-efficientresidential and commercial buildings, farm-raised crops and animals, medical diagnosis and care, transportation by car,truck and air, communication of knowledge, information and ideas by electronic media and the rapid exchange of goods and
Futures 58 (2014) 53–65
A R T I C L E I N F O
Article history:Available online 8 January 2014
Keywords:Energy researchSocietyClimateEnergy carriersEnergy storageEnergy market
A B S T R A C T
A vibrant, interactive, and rapidly advancing global society needs an adequate, low cost,predictable and diverse supply of energy; a stable climate; and an international market forenergy that mediates across countries, regions, and energy carriers. The sciencediscoveries needed to achieve these energy and societal outcomes are analyzed.
! 2014 Elsevier Ltd All rights reserved.
* Corresponding author. Tel.: +1 312 355 0954.E-mail address: [email protected] (E. Kocs).
Contents lists available at ScienceDirect
Futures
jou r nal h o mep ag e: w ww .e lsev ier . co m / loc ate / fu tu r es
0016-3287/$ – see front matter ! 2014 Elsevier Ltd All rights reserved.http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2014.01.003
http://ei.phy.uic.edu/resources/energy_science_society.pdf
Published Version
![Page 3: Energy: the Next Fifty Years › 2014 › 08 › ... · 8/26/2014 · LAS 493 Energy Storage University of Illinois at Chicago August 26, 2014 Energy, society and science: The fifty-year](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070816/5f106c617e708231d4490983/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
LAS 493 Energy Storage University of Illinois at Chicago
August 26, 2014
Energy Determines Aspirations and Limitations of Life
Energy
the prime mover of society
![Page 4: Energy: the Next Fifty Years › 2014 › 08 › ... · 8/26/2014 · LAS 493 Energy Storage University of Illinois at Chicago August 26, 2014 Energy, society and science: The fifty-year](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070816/5f106c617e708231d4490983/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
LAS 493 Energy Storage University of Illinois at Chicago
August 26, 2014
The World in Fifty Years . . .
. . . depends on the energy choices we develop now
wood
coal
oil
gas
fifty years
Steven Chu and Arun Majumdar, Nature 488, 294 (2012)
![Page 5: Energy: the Next Fifty Years › 2014 › 08 › ... · 8/26/2014 · LAS 493 Energy Storage University of Illinois at Chicago August 26, 2014 Energy, society and science: The fifty-year](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070816/5f106c617e708231d4490983/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
LAS 493 Energy Storage University of Illinois at Chicago
August 26, 2014
Conventional approach
Project energy futures based on today’s technologies
Extrapolate trends in efficiency and cost
Assume no breakthroughs
The energy future is a continuous extension of the present
Proactive approach
Define the global society we want in fifty years
Identify the strategic energy outcomes needed to enable that society
Target R&D breakthroughs to obtain those energy outcomes
Planning for the Energy Future
fifty years is long enough for energy R&D to produce breakthroughs
steer the energy–society nexus toward strategic global targets
![Page 6: Energy: the Next Fifty Years › 2014 › 08 › ... · 8/26/2014 · LAS 493 Energy Storage University of Illinois at Chicago August 26, 2014 Energy, society and science: The fifty-year](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070816/5f106c617e708231d4490983/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
LAS 493 Energy Storage University of Illinois at Chicago
August 26, 2014
The Global Society We Want in Fifty Years
• rapid growth of developing economies
• steady growth of developed economies
• aggressive pursuit of discovery science and innovation
• rapid deployment of innovative technologies
• lively communication, trade and exchange of people and ideas across national and regional boundaries
• globalization of opportunity and participation in scientific, technological, economic, social and cultural advances
“a vibrant, interactive, inclusive and rapidly advancing global society”
![Page 7: Energy: the Next Fifty Years › 2014 › 08 › ... · 8/26/2014 · LAS 493 Energy Storage University of Illinois at Chicago August 26, 2014 Energy, society and science: The fifty-year](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070816/5f106c617e708231d4490983/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
LAS 493 Energy Storage University of Illinois at Chicago
August 26, 2014
Energy Outcomes for a Vibrant Global Society in Fifty Years
Top Three Energy Outcomes
Energy security: adequate, affordable, sustainable, predictable basic to personal, social, professional, civic and commercial life
Stable climate Global discretionary resources are finite – after food, shelter, public health
Cost of climate change depletes discretionary resources for advancing society
e.g., discovery science, new technologies and improving the quality of life
Curb carbon emissions to avoid the human and economic costs of climate change
Economic development and growth the natural aspiration of people and countries, the source of discretionary resources
requires inexpensive, abundant energy
![Page 8: Energy: the Next Fifty Years › 2014 › 08 › ... · 8/26/2014 · LAS 493 Energy Storage University of Illinois at Chicago August 26, 2014 Energy, society and science: The fifty-year](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070816/5f106c617e708231d4490983/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
LAS 493 Energy Storage University of Illinois at Chicago
August 26, 2014
On the road
• Replace fossil with wind and solar electricity
On the road but not sustainable
• Replace coal and gas electricity with safe, high performance nuclear electricity
• Replace coal and oil with safe, abundant and inexpensive shale gas
Not on the road
• Mitigate carbon emissions: mineralize carbon dioxide to rocks
• Develop electricity storage for cars and the grid
• Make chemical fuel a sustainable energy carrier
Energy Science for Society in Fifty Years
![Page 9: Energy: the Next Fifty Years › 2014 › 08 › ... · 8/26/2014 · LAS 493 Energy Storage University of Illinois at Chicago August 26, 2014 Energy, society and science: The fifty-year](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070816/5f106c617e708231d4490983/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
LAS 493 Energy Storage University of Illinois at Chicago
August 26, 2014
Wind and Solar Electricity
✓ Stable climate
✓ Energy security
Viable technologies
on deployment path
Remaining science challenges improve efficiency
lower cost
GW
20
10
0
30
40
50
60
US Wind and Solar Electricity
Cumula<ve Installed Capacity
wind
solar
Ave output: 17 GW US ave use: 450 GW
~ 3.8% of US electricity
15% growth/yr à 40% wind and solar electricity by 2030
![Page 10: Energy: the Next Fifty Years › 2014 › 08 › ... · 8/26/2014 · LAS 493 Energy Storage University of Illinois at Chicago August 26, 2014 Energy, society and science: The fifty-year](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070816/5f106c617e708231d4490983/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
LAS 493 Energy Storage University of Illinois at Chicago
August 26, 2014
Safe, Higher Performing Nuclear Electricity
Heat without combustion or carbon dioxide
Established experience curve
Now: 35% efficiency 2050: 50%
Materials for • Higher temperature
• Higher radiation damage • Corrosive environments
CuNb interfaces Michael Demkowicz-MIT
Reprocessing for • More electricity/fuel
• Less spent fuel storage • Shorter storage time
4 to 10 times smaller volume
Thousands of years instead of
hundreds of thousands of years
Challenges Safety
1960s technology Spent fuel
![Page 11: Energy: the Next Fifty Years › 2014 › 08 › ... · 8/26/2014 · LAS 493 Energy Storage University of Illinois at Chicago August 26, 2014 Energy, society and science: The fifty-year](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070816/5f106c617e708231d4490983/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
LAS 493 Energy Storage University of Illinois at Chicago
August 26, 2014
Shale Gas and Hydraulic Fracturing
EIA World Shale Gas Resources http://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/worldshalegas/
Abundant world wide sources
Inexpensive
Lower carbon emissions than coal or oil
$/MBTU peak 05-08: $12 non-peak 05-08: $8
Since Jan 2012: $2 - $4 Source: EIA
Potential Game Changer lower carbon emissions
energy security diversity of sources and uses
replace coal for power production oil for transportation
US Natural Gas Production EIA
Trill
ion
cubi
c fe
et
![Page 12: Energy: the Next Fifty Years › 2014 › 08 › ... · 8/26/2014 · LAS 493 Energy Storage University of Illinois at Chicago August 26, 2014 Energy, society and science: The fifty-year](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070816/5f106c617e708231d4490983/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
LAS 493 Energy Storage University of Illinois at Chicago
August 26, 2014
Hydraulic Fracturing Challenges – Science Needed
Operation
Distant horizontal drilling into thin shale layers
Local high pressure fractures rock
High pressure hydraulic fluid opens fissures
Sand driven into fissures to prop open
Gas and oil flow out
Challenges
Flow of fluids in mesoporous rock
contamination of water, air
initial rush of gas
sharp decline in first year
only 15% of shale gas recovered
Science Challenges Understand and control
fissure mechanics, pore formation, fluid flow in fractured rock
IEA, Golden Rules for a Golden Era of Gas (2012) Rachel Ehrenberg, Science News 182, 20 (2012)
![Page 13: Energy: the Next Fifty Years › 2014 › 08 › ... · 8/26/2014 · LAS 493 Energy Storage University of Illinois at Chicago August 26, 2014 Energy, society and science: The fifty-year](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070816/5f106c617e708231d4490983/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
LAS 493 Energy Storage University of Illinois at Chicago
August 26, 2014
MO + CO2 à MCO3 + energy Mg2Si2O4 + 2CO2 → 2MgCO3 + SiO2 + ~1.4 MJ/kg CO2
Also Ca, Fe, . . .
• Permanent, benign storage • No follow up monitoring • Capacity >> emissions
Carbon Dioxide Mineralization
carbon
CO2
carbonate
394 kJ/mol
90 kJ/mol
challenges / science solutions
Slow reaction kinetics – find catalysts
Non-reactive coating – control surface chemistry
Reservoir Gigatons Carbon
Atmosphere 720
Surface Ocean 670
Deep Ocean 36,730
Carbonate Rocks >60,000,000
Fossil fuels 4,130
Tannock Hall of Education, University of Notre Dame, Australia 2010
carbonate powder
![Page 14: Energy: the Next Fifty Years › 2014 › 08 › ... · 8/26/2014 · LAS 493 Energy Storage University of Illinois at Chicago August 26, 2014 Energy, society and science: The fifty-year](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070816/5f106c617e708231d4490983/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
LAS 493 Energy Storage University of Illinois at Chicago
August 26, 2014
40% of US primary energy devoted to electricity production
Electricity - the Great Enabler
source: EPRI
1880 2020 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 0.0
10
20
30
40
1900
%
![Page 15: Energy: the Next Fifty Years › 2014 › 08 › ... · 8/26/2014 · LAS 493 Energy Storage University of Illinois at Chicago August 26, 2014 Energy, society and science: The fifty-year](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070816/5f106c617e708231d4490983/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
LAS 493 Energy Storage University of Illinois at Chicago
August 26, 2014
Electricity as a Sustainable Energy Carrier
coal gas
heat mechanical motion electricity
communication
digital electronics
lighting heating
refrigeration
transportation
industry nuclear fission
35% of primary energy
34% of CO2 emissions
63% of energy lost
hydro wind
fuel cells
solar electric
solar thermal
clean, efficient, versatile
accommodates many sources and uses
fossil and renewable
e-
e-
loa
d
power grid
electric vehicles
![Page 16: Energy: the Next Fifty Years › 2014 › 08 › ... · 8/26/2014 · LAS 493 Energy Storage University of Illinois at Chicago August 26, 2014 Energy, society and science: The fifty-year](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070816/5f106c617e708231d4490983/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
LAS 493 Energy Storage University of Illinois at Chicago
August 26, 2014
Transportation 29%
Electricity Residential
15%
Electricity Commercial
15%
Electricity Industrial
10%
Industrial Non-electric
20%
EIA Annual Energy Review 2009
Two biggest energy uses poised for transformational change
Transportation 29% Oil à Electricity
Reduce foreign oil dependence
Reduce carbon emissions
Electricity 40% Coal à Gas à Wind and Solar
Reduce carbon emissions
Sustainable energy supply
Energy Demand
The bottleneck for both transitions is inexpensive, high density electrical energy storage
The Battery Development Challenge
![Page 17: Energy: the Next Fifty Years › 2014 › 08 › ... · 8/26/2014 · LAS 493 Energy Storage University of Illinois at Chicago August 26, 2014 Energy, society and science: The fifty-year](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070816/5f106c617e708231d4490983/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
LAS 493 Energy Storage University of Illinois at Chicago
August 26, 2014
‣ Transformational goals: 5-5-5 – 5 times greater energy density – 1/5 cost – within 5 years
Joint Center for Energy Storage Research (JCESR) TR
AN
SPO
RTA
TIO
N G
RID
$100/kWh
400 Wh/kg 400 Wh/L
800 W/kg 800 W/L
1000 cycles
80% DoD C/5
15 yr calendar life
EUCAR
$100/kWh
95% round-trip efficiency at C/5 rate
7000 cycles C/5
20 yr calendar life
Safety equivalent to a natural gas turbine
} Legacies ◦ Library of fundamental knowledge
� Atomic and molecular understanding of battery phenomena and materials
◦ Pre-commercial prototypes for grid and transportation ◦ New paradigm of battery development
� Build the battery from the bottom up � Battery as integral system � Discovery science, battery design and pre-commercial
prototyping in single highly interactive organization
![Page 18: Energy: the Next Fifty Years › 2014 › 08 › ... · 8/26/2014 · LAS 493 Energy Storage University of Illinois at Chicago August 26, 2014 Energy, society and science: The fifty-year](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070816/5f106c617e708231d4490983/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
LAS 493 Energy Storage University of Illinois at Chicago
August 26, 2014
Develop Chemical Fuel as a Sustainable Energy Carrier
Graves, Ebbesen, Mogensen, Lackner Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 15,1 (2011)
Cellulosic biofuels
requires land, low efficiency,
limited capacity
2007 à
Hydrogen
requires infrastructure, storage,
renewable production
2003 à
Carbon dioxide + water (hydrogen)
recycled chemical fuels
Significant science breakthrough
Drop-in replacement for fossil
Incremental change to established combustion
infrastructure
Promotes carbon mitigation, energy security
![Page 19: Energy: the Next Fifty Years › 2014 › 08 › ... · 8/26/2014 · LAS 493 Energy Storage University of Illinois at Chicago August 26, 2014 Energy, society and science: The fifty-year](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070816/5f106c617e708231d4490983/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
LAS 493 Energy Storage University of Illinois at Chicago
August 26, 2014
Develop Chemical Bonds as a Sustainable Energy Carrier
CO2 + H2O à many opportunities for sustainable chemical fuel
Graves, Ebbesen, Mogensen, Lackner Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 15,1 (2011)
![Page 20: Energy: the Next Fifty Years › 2014 › 08 › ... · 8/26/2014 · LAS 493 Energy Storage University of Illinois at Chicago August 26, 2014 Energy, society and science: The fifty-year](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070816/5f106c617e708231d4490983/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
LAS 493 Energy Storage University of Illinois at Chicago
August 26, 2014
The Cost of Doing Things
$ $ $ discovery
development
deployment
![Page 21: Energy: the Next Fifty Years › 2014 › 08 › ... · 8/26/2014 · LAS 493 Energy Storage University of Illinois at Chicago August 26, 2014 Energy, society and science: The fifty-year](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070816/5f106c617e708231d4490983/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
LAS 493 Energy Storage University of Illinois at Chicago
August 26, 2014
Why Discovery Science?
• The cost is low • It stimulates innovation
the lifeblood of economic competitiveness and growth
• It tells you what will fail before you attempt to develop it • It pays back more than it costs in economic return • It primes the innovation ecosystem
![Page 22: Energy: the Next Fifty Years › 2014 › 08 › ... · 8/26/2014 · LAS 493 Energy Storage University of Illinois at Chicago August 26, 2014 Energy, society and science: The fifty-year](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070816/5f106c617e708231d4490983/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
LAS 493 Energy Storage University of Illinois at Chicago
August 26, 2014
Perspective
Energy determines the aspirations and limitations of society
A vibrant, interactive, inclusive and rapidly advancing global society in fifty years requires strategic energy outcomes
• adequate, affordable, sustainable, predictable energy
• stable climate
• global economic development and growth
Discovery science targets for strategic energy outcomes
• wind and solar electricity
• safe, high performing nuclear electricity
• safe, inexpensive shale gas to replace coal and oil
• mineralization of carbon emissions to carbonate rocks
• electricity storage for transportation and the grid
• sustainable chemical energy carriers
Discovery science is the low cost engine of innovation for energy and society George Crabtree, Elizabeth Kocs, Thomas Lipsmeyer, Energy, Society and Science: the Fifty Year Scenario
to appear in Futures and available at http://ei.phy.uic.edu/res_publications.html
![Page 23: Energy: the Next Fifty Years › 2014 › 08 › ... · 8/26/2014 · LAS 493 Energy Storage University of Illinois at Chicago August 26, 2014 Energy, society and science: The fifty-year](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070816/5f106c617e708231d4490983/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
LAS 493 Energy Storage University of Illinois at Chicago
August 26, 2014
Multivalent Intercalation
Chemical Transformation
Replace monovalent Li+ with di- or tri-valent ions: Mg++, Al+++, . . .
Double or triple energy stored and released
Replace intercalation with high energy chemical reaction
Li-S, Li-O, Na-S, . . .
Replace solid electrodes with liquid solutions or suspensions:
lower cost, higher capacity, greater flexibility
Non-aqueous Redox Flow
Tailored structure-function relationships Redox couples, electrolytes, SEI . . .
Designer Organic
Molecules Black, Adams, Nazar, Adv. Energy Mater 2, 801 (2012)
Yang, Zheng, Cui, Ener Env Sci 5, 1551 (2013)
Beyond Li-ion Storage Concepts