economic roundtable estimating the scope of services and cost to end homelessness prepared for bring...

Economic RoundtableEconomic Roundtable

Estimating the Scope of Services and Cost to End

Homelessness

Estimating the Scope of Services and Cost to End

Homelessness

Prepared for Bring LA Home!Prepared for Bring LA Home!

Economic RoundtableEconomic Roundtable 22

Questions to Answer in Estimating Cost

Questions to Answer in Estimating Cost1. How many people are homeless?

a. How big is the current homeless population?b. How many additional people become homeless each year?c. How many people escape homelessness each year?d. How many households are comprised by the homeless population?

2. What services are needed?a. How many people are in each needs-related category?b. What is the distribution of service needs within each category?c. How much does each type of service cost?

3. How much spendable resources do homeless people have?a. How many are enrolled in each public benefits program?b. What level of benefits is provided by each program?c. How many are employed?d. What is the earnings distribution among employed individuals?

4. How are housing needs met?a. What is the distribution of housing needs by size of housing unit?b. How much does each size of unit cost?c. How much of their spendable resources do households use for

housing?d. What subsidies are required after households pay what they are able

for housing?e. How long are subsidies provided?

1. How many people are homeless?a. How big is the current homeless population?b. How many additional people become homeless each year?c. How many people escape homelessness each year?d. How many households are comprised by the homeless population?

2. What services are needed?a. How many people are in each needs-related category?b. What is the distribution of service needs within each category?c. How much does each type of service cost?

3. How much spendable resources do homeless people have?a. How many are enrolled in each public benefits program?b. What level of benefits is provided by each program?c. How many are employed?d. What is the earnings distribution among employed individuals?

4. How are housing needs met?a. What is the distribution of housing needs by size of housing unit?b. How much does each size of unit cost?c. How much of their spendable resources do households use for

housing?d. What subsidies are required after households pay what they are able

for housing?e. How long are subsidies provided?


Population SizePopulation Size


Homeless Population EstimateHomeless Population Estimate Estimated point-in-

time population: 33,900 family

members 44,700 single

individuals Estimated annual

population: 119,100 family


individuals The size of the

homeless population is affected by: The length of time for

which individuals are homeless

The number of people who have repeat stints of homelessness.

Estimated point-in-time population: 33,900 family


individuals Estimated annual

population: 119,100 family


individuals The size of the

homeless population is affected by: The length of time for

which individuals are homeless

The number of people who have repeat stints of homelessness.

Table 8

Estimated Point-in-Time and Annual Homeless Population in Los Angeles County in 2002 by Family Status and Duration of Homelessness

Data from Los Angeles County Department of Public Social Services caseload in 2002, Winter Shelter Program residents in 2002, and National Survey of Homeless Assistance Providers and Clients in 1996

Family Members

Single Individuals Total

Homeless and Received CalWORKs or General Relief in 20021 101,681 70,585 172,266Estimated Ratio of Annual to Point-in-Time Homeless Population2 3.51 3.02Point-in-Time Recipients of CalWORKs or General Relief in 20023 28,969 23,385 52,354Estimated % of All Homeless Getting CalWORKs or GR in 20024 85% 52%Estimated Total Point-in-Time Homeless Population in 20025 33,921 44,678 78,600Estimated Total Annual Homeless Population in 20026 119,064 134,853 253,918

% Homeless 6 months or less7 86% 66%% Homeless 7-12 Months7 5% 11%% Homeless 12+ Months7 9% 22%Homeless 6 months or less8 29,314 29,689 59,003Homeless 7-12 Months8 1,544 5,041 6,585Homeless 12+ Months8 3,063 9,947 13,011Estimated Annual Turnover of Persons Homeless <6 months9 4.14 4.25Estimated Annual Turnover of Persons Homeless 7-12 Months9 1.33 1.33Estimated Annual Turnover of Persons Homeless 12+ Months9 1.00 1.00% Homeless <6 Months and Only Time in the Year10 92% 92%% Homeless 7-12 Months and Only Time in the Year10 77% 77%% Homeless 12+ Months and Only Time in the Year10 100% 100%% Homeless <6 months, and More than 1 Time in the Year10 8% 8%% Homeless 7-12 Months, and More than 1 Time in the Year10 23% 23%% Homeless 12+ Months, and More than 1 Time in the Year10 0% 0%Estimated Total Annual Homeless <6 Months in 200211 114,064 118,581 232,645Estimated Total Annual Homeless 7-12 Months in 200211 1,937 6,324 8,262Estimated Total Annual Homeless 12+ Months in 200211 3,063 9,947 13,011


Source Information for Estimating the

Size of Major Categories of

Homeless Residents

Source Information for Estimating the

Size of Major Categories of

Homeless Residents LAHSA’s estimates of the breakout of the homeless population in combination with Economic Roundtable estimates produce a detailed point-in-time estimate of homeless subpopulations.

This data is then used to produce an annual estimate of the size of the population categories used for producing cost estimates.

LAHSA’s estimates of the breakout of the homeless population in combination with Economic Roundtable estimates produce a detailed point-in-time estimate of homeless subpopulations.

This data is then used to produce an annual estimate of the size of the population categories used for producing cost estimates.

Table 9

Estimated Point-In-Time Homeless Subpopulations inLos Angeles County in 2002

Subpopulations within single individuals and within family membersoverlap and add up to more than 100 percent

Percent of Population

Estimated Point-in-Time Population

Single IndividualsTOTAL 100% 44,678Females2 30% 13,403Males2 70% 31,275Chronic Substance Abuse1 50% 22,339Seriously Mentally Ill1 25% 11,170Dually-Diagnosed1 16% 7,148Veterans3 22% 9,988Persons with HIV/AIDS1 3% 1,341Victims of Domestic Violence1 9% 4,021Youth/Emancipated Foster Youth1 8% 3,575Other-Employment Disability3 25% 11,032Other-Elderly1 12% 5,495Other-Multi-Diagnosed1 5% 2,234

Family MembersTOTAL 100% 33,921Female Parents2 31% 10,634Male Parents2 10% 3,362Female Children2 29% 9,948Male Children2 29% 9,977Chronic Substance Abuse1 32% 10,856Seriously Mentally Ill1 4% 1,356Dually-Diagnosed1 1% 340Veterans (among parents)3 13% 1,829Persons with HIV/AIDS1 3% 1,017Victims of Domestic Violence1 34% 11,533Other-Multi-Diagnosed1 1% 340Other-Employment Disability3 23% 3,184


Estimating Population by Major Category

The Number of New Entrants into Homelessness Sets the Size of All Groups

Estimating Population by Major Category

The Number of New Entrants into Homelessness Sets the Size of All Groups

Category Methodology

Esti-mated

Count of adults & children

Esti-mated

Count of Adults

Persons per

House-hold

Estimated ratio ofP-I-T to

annual pop.

Estimated Number of Persons in First Year

Estimated Number of

Households in First Year

Estimated % of Unduplicated New Persons Each Sub-sequent Yr.

Estimated Nmbr Undup-licated New Persons

Each Subsequent Yr.

Estimated Nmbr Unduplicated New Households Each Sub-sequent Yr.

Single men and women

44,678 shown in Table 8, minus: 3,575 homeless youth, 11,170 seriously mentally ill, 7,148 dually-diagnosed, 2,234 multi-diagnosed, and 1,341 with HIV/AIDS shown in Table 9

19,210

short-term (1-6 mth)

19,210 x .6645 plus 19,210 x .2227 x .25 (redistribution of population breakout shown in Table 4 to offset over-representation of long-term in mentally ill category)

16,451 16,451 1.00 4.25 69,916 69,916 92% 64,323 64,323

mid-term (7-11 mth)


1,764 1,764 1.00 1.33 2,347 2,347 77% 1,807 1,807

long-term (12+ mth)

19,210 x .2227 x .25 (75% of long-term assumed to be in mentally-ill, dual- or multi-diagnosed category)

995 995 1.00 1.00 995 995 25% 249 249

Family Members

33,921 shown in Table 8 , minus: 1,356 seriously mentally ill, 340 dually-diagnosed, 340 multi-diagnosed, and 1,017 HIV/AIDS shown in Table 9

30,868


30,868 x ..8642 plus 3.,868 x .0903 x .25 (redistribution of population breakout shown in Table 8 to offset over-representation of long-term in mentally ill category)

28,133 11,660 2.69 4.14 116,469 43,297 92% 107,151 39,833

mid-term (7-11 mth)


1,174 486 2.69 1.33 1,561 580 77% 1,202 447

long-term (12+ mth)


1,562 648 2.69 1.00 1,562 581 25% 391 145

Unaccom-panied Yth (thru 24 yr)

8% of single individuals shown in Table 9 3,575 3,575 1.00 3.22 11,516 11,516 65% 7,447 7,447

Seriously Mentally Ill, Dual- Multi-Diagnosed

11,170 single individuals and 1,356 family members estimated to be seriously mentally ill; 7,148 single individuals and 340 family members estimated to be dually-diagnosed; 2,234 single individuals and 340 family members estimated to be multi-diagnosed, as shown in Table 9

22,588 21,391 1.06 1.99 44,868 42,328 20% 8,974 8,466

HIV+/AIDS 1,341 single individuals and 1,017 family members shown in Table 9 2,358 1,705 1.37 1.99 4,684 3,419 20% 937 684

TOTAL 78,600 58,674 3.23 253,918 174,979 65% 192,480 123,401

Category Methodology

Esti-mated

Count of adults & children

Esti-mated

Count of Adults

Persons per

House-hold

Estimated ratio ofP-I-T to

annual pop.

Estimated Number of Persons in First Year

Estimated Number of

Households in First Year

Estimated % of Unduplicated New Persons Each Sub-sequent Yr.

Estimated Nmbr Undup-licated New Persons

Each Subsequent Yr.

Estimated Nmbr Unduplicated New Households Each Sub-sequent Yr.

Single men and women

44,678 shown in Table 8, minus: 3,575 homeless youth, 11,170 seriously mentally ill, 7,148 dually-diagnosed, 2,234 multi-diagnosed, and 1,341 with HIV/AIDS shown in Table 9

19,210



16,451 16,451 1.00 4.25 69,916 69,916 92% 64,323 64,323

mid-term (7-11 mth)


1,764 1,764 1.00 1.33 2,347 2,347 77% 1,807 1,807

long-term (12+ mth)


995 995 1.00 1.00 995 995 25% 249 249

Family Members

33,921 shown in Table 8 , minus: 1,356 seriously mentally ill, 340 dually-diagnosed, 340 multi-diagnosed, and 1,017 HIV/AIDS shown in Table 9

30,868


30,868 x ..8642 plus 3.,868 x .0903 x .25 (redistribution of population breakout shown in Table 8 to offset over-representation of long-term in mentally ill category)

28,133 11,660 2.69 4.14 116,469 43,297 92% 107,151 39,833

mid-term (7-11 mth)


1,174 486 2.69 1.33 1,561 580 77% 1,202 447

long-term (12+ mth)


1,562 648 2.69 1.00 1,562 581 25% 391 145

Unaccom-panied Yth (thru 24 yr)

8% of single individuals shown in Table 9 3,575 3,575 1.00 3.22 11,516 11,516 65% 7,447 7,447

Seriously Mentally Ill, Dual- Multi-Diagnosed

11,170 single individuals and 1,356 family members estimated to be seriously mentally ill; 7,148 single individuals and 340 family members estimated to be dually-diagnosed; 2,234 single individuals and 340 family members estimated to be multi-diagnosed, as shown in Table 9

22,588 21,391 1.06 1.99 44,868 42,328 20% 8,974 8,466

HIV+/AIDS 1,341 single individuals and 1,017 family members shown in Table 9 2,358 1,705 1.37 1.99 4,684 3,419 20% 937 684

TOTAL 78,600 58,674 3.23 253,918 174,979 65% 192,480 123,401


Population SummaryPopulation Summary Annual population size is estimated for 9 categories of

homeless residents, each with it’s own profile of service needs and costs: Single men and women homeless 1-6 months Single men and women homeless 7-11 months Single men and women homeless 12+ months Family Members homeless 1-6 months Family Members homeless 7-11 months Family Members homeless 12+ months Unaccompanied Youth thru 24 years of age Seriously mentally ill, dual- multi-Diagnosed HIV+/AIDS

The number of individuals and households is estimated for each category.

The percent of the population accounted for by each category is assumed to remain the same regardless of population size.

The size of the homeless population is driven by the number of new entrants into homelessness each year.

Annual population size is estimated for 9 categories of homeless residents, each with it’s own profile of service needs and costs: Single men and women homeless 1-6 months Single men and women homeless 7-11 months Single men and women homeless 12+ months Family Members homeless 1-6 months Family Members homeless 7-11 months Family Members homeless 12+ months Unaccompanied Youth thru 24 years of age Seriously mentally ill, dual- multi-Diagnosed HIV+/AIDS

The number of individuals and households is estimated for each category.

The percent of the population accounted for by each category is assumed to remain the same regardless of population size.

The size of the homeless population is driven by the number of new entrants into homelessness each year.


Service Needs and CostsService Needs and Costs


Service Needs except Employment and Housing

Service Needs except Employment and Housing The percent of

each population category needing each service is estimated.

Service providers were polled.

Estimates are on the low side.

The model allows manipulation of these estimates.

The same estimates were used in all four scenarios.

The percent of each population category needing each service is estimated.

Service providers were polled.

Estimates are on the low side.

The model allows manipulation of these estimates.

The same estimates were used in all four scenarios.

Short-term single adults

75% 25% 10% 5% 6% 14% 38%

Mid-term single adults

75% 50% 15% 15% 19% 28% 50%

Long-term single adults

75% 75% 30% 25% 38% 40% 75%

Short-term family members

75% 25% 10% 5% 6% 8% 38%

Mid-term family members

75% 50% 15% 15% 19% 20% 50%

Long-term family members

75% 75% 30% 25% 38% 32% 75%

Unaccompanied youth

75% 75% 40% 25% 38% 40% 65%

Mentally ill, dual- multi-diagnosed

75% 75% 10% 35% 63% 32% 60%

HIV+/AIDS 75% 50% 20% 15% 13% 15% 75%

TOTAL 75% 50% 20% 20% 25% 20% 50%

Substance Abuse

Treatment

Med, Dental, Life Skills, Ed, Food, Clth, Childcare

Percent of Homeless Residents Needing and Using Services

Emergency Nonresidential

Population Category

Restorative Justice

Mental Health

Outreach or Access Center

Emerg/ Transitional

Shelter

Assistance Entering Housing


Three Factors Determine the Cost Differences in Scenarios 1-3 Differences in Housing Cost

Contributions Reduce Costs in Scenario 4

Three Factors Determine the Cost Differences in Scenarios 1-3 Differences in Housing Cost

Contributions Reduce Costs in Scenario 4

SCENARIOCautious Semi-

OptimisticOptimistic

Annual % Unduplicated New Homeless Persons Years 2-10 65% 65% 30%Percent of Adults in Labor Force After Services 50% 65% 65%Percent of Any-Time-Homeless-in-Year Population Receiving CalWORKs Benefits

30% 34% 34%

Percent of Any-Time-Homeless-in-Year Population Receiving SSI Benefits

20% 33% 33%

Percent of Any-Time-Homeless-in-Year Population Receiving General Relief Benefits

14% 21% 21%

FACTOR THAT VARY IN SCENARIOS

SCENARIOCautious Semi-

OptimisticOptimistic

Annual % Unduplicated New Homeless Persons Years 2-10 65% 65% 30%Percent of Adults in Labor Force After Services 50% 65% 65%Percent of Any-Time-Homeless-in-Year Population Receiving CalWORKs Benefits

30% 34% 34%

Percent of Any-Time-Homeless-in-Year Population Receiving SSI Benefits

20% 33% 33%

Percent of Any-Time-Homeless-in-Year Population Receiving General Relief Benefits

14% 21% 21%

FACTOR THAT VARY IN SCENARIOS

In Scenario 4, as in the other 3 scenarios, individuals begin by contributing 40% of their spendable income to pay housing costs. This amount increases by 5 percentage points each year for single adults with $7,000 to $11,999 and families with $10,000 to $15,999 in earnings.

In Scenario 4, as in the other 3 scenarios, individuals begin by contributing 40% of their spendable income to pay housing costs. This amount increases by 5 percentage points each year for single adults with $7,000 to $11,999 and families with $10,000 to $15,999 in earnings.


Take-up and Cost of

Services

Take-up and Cost of

ServicesMost frequently needed services:Outreach, access

centers 75%Shelter and

linked services 50%

Nonresidential support services 50%

Job training/ placement 33%-43%

Most expensive services:Supportive

housing $10 - 12,700

Subsidized housing $5 – 7,700

Substance abuse treatment $5,200

Assisted housing entry $5,000

Most frequently needed services:Outreach, access

centers 75%Shelter and

linked services 50%

Nonresidential support services 50%

Job training/ placement 33%-43%

Most expensive services:Supportive

housing $10 - 12,700

Subsidized housing $5 – 7,700

Substance abuse treatment $5,200

Assisted housing entry $5,000

Table 12

Estimated Take-up Rate for Services and Local Costs to Pay for One Cycle of Service or Subsidize for One Year of Housing

Type of Assistance Local Cost per Household Percent of Homeless Population Receiving Each Type of Assistance

Outreach, Access Centers $250 75%

Shelter, & Linked Services $1,500 50%

Restorative Justice $1,500 20%

Mental Health $675 25%

Substance Abuse Treatment $5,250 20%

Medical, Dental, Life Skills, Education, Food, Clothing, Childcare, Other

Average of $1,500 50%

General Relief $1,667 per year average 14% to 21% depending on scenario

CalWORKs No local cost 30% to 34% depending on scenario

Supplemental Security Income (SSI) No local cost 20% to 33% depending on scenario

Training & Employment $1,917 per labor force entrant 1/3 of labor force entrants will use job search assistance, and another 1/3 vocational training

Assisted Entry into Housing $5,000 20%

Market Rate Family Housing No subsidy Families with $16,000 or more in annual spendable resources

Market Rate Individual Housing No subsidy Single adults with $12,000 or more in annual spendable resources

Affordable Family Housing $5,150 yearly after tenant rent contribution

Families with $10,000 to $15,999 in annual spendable resources

Affordable Individual Housing $3,155 yearly after tenant rent contribution

Single adults with $7,000 to $11,999 in annual spendable resources

Subsidized Family Housing $7,726 yearly after tenant rent contribution

1/2 of families with less than $10,000 in annual spendable resources

Subsidized Individual Housing $5,160 yearly after tenant rent contribution

1/2 of single adults with less than $7,000 in annual spendable resources

Supportive Family Housing $12,726 yearly after tenant rent contribution


Supportive Individual Housing $10,160 yearly after tenant rent contribution


Table 12

Estimated Take-up Rate for Services and Local Costs to Pay for One Cycle of Service or Subsidize for One Year of Housing

Type of Assistance Local Cost per Household Percent of Homeless Population Receiving Each Type of Assistance

Outreach, Access Centers $250 75%

Shelter, & Linked Services $1,500 50%

Restorative Justice $1,500 20%

Mental Health $675 25%

Substance Abuse Treatment $5,250 20%

Medical, Dental, Life Skills, Education, Food, Clothing, Childcare, Other

Average of $1,500 50%

General Relief $1,667 per year average 14% to 21% depending on scenario

CalWORKs No local cost 30% to 34% depending on scenario

Supplemental Security Income (SSI) No local cost 20% to 33% depending on scenario

Training & Employment $1,917 per labor force entrant 1/3 of labor force entrants will use job search assistance, and another 1/3 vocational training

Assisted Entry into Housing $5,000 20%

Market Rate Family Housing No subsidy Families with $16,000 or more in annual spendable resources

Market Rate Individual Housing No subsidy Single adults with $12,000 or more in annual spendable resources

Affordable Family Housing $5,150 yearly after tenant rent contribution

Families with $10,000 to $15,999 in annual spendable resources

Affordable Individual Housing $3,155 yearly after tenant rent contribution

Single adults with $7,000 to $11,999 in annual spendable resources

Subsidized Family Housing $7,726 yearly after tenant rent contribution


Subsidized Individual Housing $5,160 yearly after tenant rent contribution


Supportive Family Housing $12,726 yearly after tenant rent contribution


Supportive Individual Housing $10,160 yearly after tenant rent contribution



Employment Rate and Earnings Distribution for Each Population Category are Based on Estimates for How Employment and Earnings for Category

Differ from the Overall Homeless Population

Employment Rate and Earnings Distribution for Each Population Category are Based on Estimates for How Employment and Earnings for Category

Differ from the Overall Homeless PopulationTable 2 Table 3

Estimated Labor Force Participation within Categories of the Point-in-Time PopulationCAUTIOUS SCENARIO

Estimated Distribution of Earnings within Subgroups of the Point-in-Time Population

Estimated Ratio of Subgroup Members to Total Homeless Persons in Income Group

Category Basis for Estimating Percent in Labor Force After Receiving Services

P-I-T Partici-pants in Labor

Force After Services

Annual Partici-pants in Labor

Force After Services-1st Year

Annual Partici-pants in Labor

Force After Services-Years 2-

10

Estimated Ratio of Employment Rate

to Overall Homeless

Employment Rate

Percent of Adults in

Labor Force

$0 Annual

Earnings

$3K Annual

Earnings

$6K Annual

Earnings

$9K Annual

Earnings

$12K Annual Earnings

$15K+ Annual

Earnings

Short-term single adults

88% of 13,835 short-term single adults 11,872 50,455 46,418 1.44 72% 0.31 1.24 1.25 1.38 1.51 1.64

Mid-term single adults

75% of 4,306 mid-term single adults 1,085 1,443 1,111 1.23 62% 0.64 1.35 1.46 1.29 1.11 1.09

Long-term single adults

60% of 1,070 long-term single adults 489 489 122 0.98 49% 1.02 1.45 1.35 1.10 0.88 0.55

Short-term adult family members

88% of short-term adult family members (adults make up 41% of the 27,373 family members)

8,414 34,834 32,047 1.44 72% 0.31 1.24 1.25 1.38 1.51 1.64

Mid-term adult family members

75% of mid-term adult family members (adults make up 41% of the 2,798 family members)

299 398 306 1.23 62% 0.64 1.35 1.46 1.29 1.11 1.09

Long-term adult family members

60% of long-term adult family members (adults make up 41% of the 697 family members)

319 319 80 0.98 49% 1.02 1.45 1.35 1.10 0.88 0.55

Unaccompanied youth

70% of the 71% of 3,575 unaccompanied youth that PUMS shows to be non-disabled

2,052 6,611 4,275 1.15 57% 0.77 1.45 1.25 1.10 0.96 1.09


25% of adults who are seriously mentally ill, dual-, and multi-diagnosed (adults make up 95% of the 22,588 persons in this population)

4,385 8,711 1,742 0.41 21% 1.92 0.52 0.52 0.46 0.40 0.27

HIV+/AIDS 50% of adult HIV+/AIDS (adults make un an estimated 72% of the homeless HIV+/AIDS population)

699 1,389 278 0.82 41% 1.28 1.04 1.04 0.92 0.80 0.55

TOTAL 29,615 104,648 86,380 1.00 50% 50% 8% 8% 9% 10% 15%


The Number of People in Each Category in the Labor Force Varies with the Scenario, But the Percent Distribution of Earnings Outcomes

Remains Constant in all Four Scenarios

The Number of People in Each Category in the Labor Force Varies with the Scenario, But the Percent Distribution of Earnings Outcomes

Remains Constant in all Four Scenarios

“High” earners: Short-term

50% more likely than mid-term

Mid-term 50% more likely than long-term

Non-earners: Long-term


Mid-term 50% more likely than short-term

“High” earners: Short-term


Mid-term 50% more likely than long-term

Non-earners: Long-term


Mid-term 50% more likely than short-term

Table 3-A

Estimated Annual Earned Income of Point-in-Time Homeless Adults, by Subgroup, After Receiving Services

Percent in Annual Income Group Number in Annual Income GroupCategory $0 $3K $6K $9K $12K $15K+ $0 $3K $6K $9K $12K $15K+ Total

Short-term single adult

28% 10% 10% 12% 16% 25% 4,579 1,619 1,619 2,024 2,563 4,047 16,451

Mid-term single adult

38% 11% 11% 11% 11% 16% 679 188 203 203 203 289 1,764

Long-term single adult

51% 11% 11% 10% 9% 8% 505 114 106 98 90 82 995

Short-term adult family members

28% 10% 10% 12% 16% 25% 3,245 1,147 1,147 1,434 1,817 2,868 11,660

Mid-term adult family members

38% 11% 11% 11% 11% 16% 187 52 56 56 56 80 486

Long-term adult family members

51% 11% 11% 10% 9% 8% 329 74 69 64 58 53 648

Unaccom-panied yth.

43% 11% 10% 10% 10% 16% 1,523 410 352 352 352 586 3,575


79% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 17,005 877 877 877 877 877 21,391

HIV+/AIDS 59% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 1,006 140 140 140 140 140 1,705

TOTAL 50% 8% 8% 9% 10% 15% 29,059 4,622 4,568 5,247 6,155 9,023 58,674


For estimates of welfare benefits and total income see Tables 11-18 of the Population Services Matrix

For estimates of welfare benefits and total income see Tables 11-18 of the Population Services Matrix


Services, Costs and Income SummaryServices, Costs and Income Summary

In all 4 scenarios the following thing remain the same: The percent of the overall population in each category The percent of each population category needing each

service The cost of each service The distribution of earnings within each population

category The following things changed in different scenarios:

The size of the homeless population The number of people who are employed and have

earnings The number of people who receive public benefits The amount of spendable resources that people

contribute to housing

In all 4 scenarios the following thing remain the same: The percent of the overall population in each category The percent of each population category needing each

service The cost of each service The distribution of earnings within each population

category The following things changed in different scenarios:

The size of the homeless population The number of people who are employed and have

earnings The number of people who receive public benefits The amount of spendable resources that people

contribute to housing


Population-Services-Cost MatrixPopulation-Services-Cost Matrix


Estimated Level of Services Needed and Used by Subgroups of Homeless Residents

in Cautious Scenario

Estimated Level of Services Needed and Used by Subgroups of Homeless Residents

in Cautious ScenarioEmploy-ment

Public Assist. Street, Shelter

Market Rate Housing Affordable Housing

Subsidized Housing

Subsidized Supportive

Other Nonresidential Support Services**

Major Categories within the Homeless

Population Tra

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earc

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Cre

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Ret

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Gen

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Rel

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Out

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She

lter, &

link

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Fam

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Indi

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al

Fam

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Indi

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al

Fam

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Indi

vidu

al

Fam

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Indi

vidu

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Res

tora

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Just

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Men

tal H

ealth

Sub

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buse

Tre

atm

ent

Med

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, Den

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Life

Ski

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Foo

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Clo

thin

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hild

care

, O

ther

Single Men and Women Not: Seriously Mentally Ill, Dually-Diagnosed, Multi-Diagnosed, HIV/AIDS, or Unaccompanied Youth

Short-term 11,872 5,768 12,338 4,113 1,645 823 1,028 2,303 6,169

Mid-term 1,085 564 1,323 882 265 265 331 494 882

Long-term 489 287 746 746 298 249 373 398 746

Family Members Not: Seriously Mentally Ill, Dually-Diagnosed, Multi-Diagnosed, HIV/AIDS, or Unaccompanied Youth

Short-term 8,414 986 21,099 7,033 7,033 583 1,758 933 10,550

Mid-term 299 5 880 587 587 73 220 97 587

Long-term 319 0 1,172 1,172 1,172 162 586 207 1,172

Populations with Special Needs

Unaccomp. Yth. 2,052 988 2,681 2,681 1,430 894 1,341 1,430 2,324

Mnt. Ill Dual-Diag. 4,385 2,357 16,941 16,941 2,259 7,487 14,118 6,845 13,553

HIV+/AIDS 699 0 1,769 1,179 472 256 295 256 1,769

Estimated Total Point-in-Time, Annual and 10-Year Services that are needed and Will be Used by Homeless Residents

Total P-i-T persons 29,615 10,956 58,950 35,334 15,160 10,790 20,049 12,963 37,751

Annl hshld Yr 1 104,648 34,673 131,235 73,041 36,447 34,240 21,756 12,635 60,044 1,662 16,773 1,662 16,773 25,028 46,287 33,753 111,685

Ann hshld Yr 2-9 86,380 27,543 92,550 39,738 32,396 28,598 14,834 10,045 33,437 1,509 10,296 1,509 10,296 10,823 20,039 19,115 77,214

Tot hshld Yr1-10 882,071 282,559 964,189 430,683 328,010 291,618 155,263 103,040 360,979 15,242 109,432 15,242 109,432 122,432 226,641 205,784 806,613

Avg Ann. New Hshld

88,207 28,256 96,419 43,068 32,801 29,162 15,526 10,304 36,098 1,524 10,943 1,524 10,943 12,243 22,664 20,578 80,661

Avg Ann Cost/Hshld $1,917 $1,667 $250 $1,500 $0 $0 $5,000 $5,169 $3,177 $7,992 $5,350 $12,992 $10,350 $1,500 $675 $5,250 $1,500Avg Annual Cost $M $169 $47 $24 $65 $0 $0 $78 $299 $669 $68 $338 $110 $653 $18 $15 $108 $121Cum 10-Yr Cost $M $1,691 $471 $241 $646 $0 $0 $776 $2,990 $6,687 $675 $3,376 $1,098 $6,531 $184 $153 $1,080 $1,210

Ass

iste

d Ent

ry in

to H

ousi

ng-

Hou

seho

lds


Annual Costs Under CAUTIOUS SCENARIO: Current Rate of New Homeless, Same Service Outcomes

$0

$500,000,000

$1,000,000,000

$1,500,000,000

$2,000,000,000

$2,500,000,000

$3,000,000,000

$3,500,000,000

$4,000,000,000

$4,500,000,000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Year

Annual

Loca

l C

ost

s

Outreach, Access Cntr

Shelter, & Linked Srv

Health, Ed., Childcare

Employment Srv

General Relief

Restorative Justice

Mental Health Srv

Sub. Abuse Rehab

Asst. Entry into Hsng

Fam. Affordable Hsng

Indiv. Affordable Hsng

Fam. Subsidized Hsng

Indiv. Subsidized Hsng

Fam. Supportive Hsng

Indiv. Supportive Hsng

Housing

Services


Annual Costs Under SEMI-OPTIMISTIC Scenario: Current Rate of New Homeless, Improved Service Outcomes

$0

$500,000,000

$1,000,000,000

$1,500,000,000

$2,000,000,000

$2,500,000,000

$3,000,000,000

$3,500,000,000

$4,000,000,000

$4,500,000,000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Year

Annual Local C

osts




Employment Srv

General Relief

Restorative Justice

Mental Health Srv

Sub. Abuse Rehab








Housing

Services

Annual Costs Under SEMI-OPTIMISTIC Scenario: Current Rate of New Homeless, Improved Service Outcomes

$0

$500,000,000

$1,000,000,000

$1,500,000,000

$2,000,000,000

$2,500,000,000

$3,000,000,000

$3,500,000,000

$4,000,000,000

$4,500,000,000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Year

Annual Local C

osts




Employment Srv

General Relief

Restorative Justice

Mental Health Srv

Sub. Abuse Rehab








Housing

Services


Annual Costs Under OPTIMISTIC Scenario: Reduced Rate of New Homeless, Improved Service Outcomes

$0

$500,000,000

$1,000,000,000

$1,500,000,000

$2,000,000,000

$2,500,000,000

$3,000,000,000

$3,500,000,000

$4,000,000,000

$4,500,000,000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Year

Annual Local C

ost




Employment Srv

General Relief

Restorative Justice

Mental Health Srv

Sub. Abuse Rehab








Housing

Services

Annual Costs Under OPTIMISTIC Scenario: Reduced Rate of New Homeless, Improved Service Outcomes

$0

$500,000,000

$1,000,000,000

$1,500,000,000

$2,000,000,000

$2,500,000,000

$3,000,000,000

$3,500,000,000

$4,000,000,000

$4,500,000,000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Year

Annual Local C

ost




Employment Srv

General Relief

Restorative Justice

Mental Health Srv

Sub. Abuse Rehab








Housing

Services


Annual Costs Under MODIFIED OPTIMISTIC Scenario: Reduced New Homeless, Improved Outcomes, Some Housing Subsidies Decline

0

500,000,000

1,000,000,000

1,500,000,000

2,000,000,000

2,500,000,000

3,000,000,000

3,500,000,000

4,000,000,000

4,500,000,000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Year

Annual Local C

ost




Employment Srv

General Relief

Restorative Justice

Mental Health Srv

Sub. Abuse Rehab








Housing

Services

Annual Costs Under MODIFIED OPTIMISTIC Scenario: Reduced New Homeless, Improved Outcomes, Some Housing Subsidies Decline

0

500,000,000

1,000,000,000

1,500,000,000

2,000,000,000

2,500,000,000

3,000,000,000

3,500,000,000

4,000,000,000

4,500,000,000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Year

Annual Local C

ost




Employment Srv

General Relief

Restorative Justice

Mental Health Srv

Sub. Abuse Rehab








Housing

Services


Annual Cost to Subsidize Housing for Different Size Households with

Different Levels of Income

Annual Cost to Subsidize Housing for Different Size Households with

Different Levels of Income Subsidy levels in each

housing category are similar in all four scenarios

Subsidy levels in each housing category are similar in all four scenarios

Estimated Annual Cost to Subsidize HousingBased on Households Paying 40% of Spendable Resources (including Food Stamps) on Housing; Estimated Rent = $570 for Studio Units and $882 for 2-Bedroom Units

$0

$0

$5,169

$3,177

$7,991

$5,351

$12,991

$10,351

$0

$0

$5,135

$3,146

$7,593

$5,053

$12,593

$10,053

$0

$0

$5,145

$3,142

$7,593

$5,075

$12,593

$10,075

$0 $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,000 $12,000 $14,000

Family Market RateHousing

Individual MarketRate Housing

Family AffordableHousing

IndividualAffordable Housing

Family SubsidizedHousing

IndividualSubsidizedHousing

Family SubsidizedSupportive

IndividualSubsidizedSupportive

Typ

e of H

ousi

ng

Annual Subisidy

Optimistic

Semi-Optimistic

Cautious

SCENARIO

Estimated Annual Cost to Subsidize HousingBased on Households Paying 40% of Spendable Resources (including Food Stamps) on Housing; Estimated Rent = $570 for Studio Units and $882 for 2-Bedroom Units

$0

$0

$5,169

$3,177

$7,991

$5,351

$12,991

$10,351

$0

$0

$5,135

$3,146

$7,593

$5,053

$12,593

$10,053

$0

$0

$5,145

$3,142

$7,593

$5,075

$12,593

$10,075

$0 $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,000 $12,000 $14,000

Family Market RateHousing



IndividualAffordable Housing

Family SubsidizedHousing


Family SubsidizedSupportive


Typ

e of H

ousi

ng

Annual Subisidy

Optimistic

Semi-Optimistic

Cautious

SCENARIO


Number of People Needing Different Levels of Housing

Subsidy in the Four Scenarios

Number of People Needing Different Levels of Housing

Subsidy in the Four Scenarios The four scenarios

produce vastly different profiles of housing need.

In the cautious scenario many more people are in subsidized housing, including very expensive supportive housing.

In the optimistic scenario many more people are in market rate housing and many fewer in supportive housing.

As increasing numbers of homeless people are housed, these different profiles result in multi-billion dollar differences in costs.

The four scenarios produce vastly different profiles of housing need.

In the cautious scenario many more people are in subsidized housing, including very expensive supportive housing.

In the optimistic scenario many more people are in market rate housing and many fewer in supportive housing.

As increasing numbers of homeless people are housed, these different profiles result in multi-billion dollar differences in costs.

Estimated Annual Housing Needs for Homeless Residents Under Three Different Scenarios

29,199

29,162

8,895

31,835

1,261

9,781

1,261

9,781

36,209

35,305

8,836

35,467

410

8,324

410

8,324

18,879

18,489

4,728

19,615

213

4,524

213

4,524

0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000

Family MarketRate Housing



IndividualAffordableHousing

FamilySubsidized

Housing


FamilySubsidizedSupportive


Typ

e o

f H

ou

sin

g

Average Annual Number of Additional Housing Units

Optimistic

Semi-Optimistic

Cautious

SCENARIO


SummarySummary1. More effective efforts to help homeless residents re-enter the

labor force and obtain public benefits will reduce costs by an estimated16 percent (cautious to semi-optimistic scenario).

2. Reducing the flow of people being cared for by major social institutions into homelessness will reduce costs by an estimated 47 percent (semi-optimistic to optimistic scenario).

3. Providing housing is by far the greatest cost in ending homelessness – accounting for two-thirds to three-quarters of total costs.

4. Requiring households with modest but still significant spendable resources (single adults with $7,000 to $11,999 and families with $10,000 to $15,999) to increase their contribution to rent costs by 5 percent each year will reduce costs by an estimated 37 percent (optimistic to modified-optimistic scenario).

5. The lowest cost scenario (modified optimistic) is estimated to cost roughly double what is currently being spent on homelessness.

1. More effective efforts to help homeless residents re-enter the labor force and obtain public benefits will reduce costs by an estimated16 percent (cautious to semi-optimistic scenario).

2. Reducing the flow of people being cared for by major social institutions into homelessness will reduce costs by an estimated 47 percent (semi-optimistic to optimistic scenario).

3. Providing housing is by far the greatest cost in ending homelessness – accounting for two-thirds to three-quarters of total costs.

4. Requiring households with modest but still significant spendable resources (single adults with $7,000 to $11,999 and families with $10,000 to $15,999) to increase their contribution to rent costs by 5 percent each year will reduce costs by an estimated 37 percent (optimistic to modified-optimistic scenario).

5. The lowest cost scenario (modified optimistic) is estimated to cost roughly double what is currently being spent on homelessness.