during operation iraqi freedom saw numerous false missile ...ghost targets can appear to be on...
TRANSCRIPT
An Informed Guess About Why Patriot Fired Upon Friendly Aircraft and
Saw Numerous False Missile Targets During Operation Iraqi Freedom
Theodore A. Postol Professor of Science, Technology, and National Security Policy
Security Studies Program, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Voice: 617 253-8077; FAX: 617 258-5750; e-mail: [email protected]
Distribution and Use of this Document is Encouraged and Unrestricted Comments and Further Information Are Welcome
MIT Security Studies Program
How Ghosting (False Ballistic Missile Targets) Can Occur When Two Similar Radars in the Same Operating Mode Track a Single Target
dL=c dt + dR
dL/2
Note: Relative Distances are Not to Scale
Note: Relative Distances are Not to Scale
“Ghost Target” generated by pulse that reflects off aircraft from a second radar at a slightly different time than the pulse from the first radar. Depending on the time-differences between pulses, the pulse from the second radar can create a false downrange target for the first radar. When this is done as an intentional electronic countermeasure, its effects are somewhat similar to that of a “repeater” jammer.
Ghost Targets Can Appear to be on Ballistic Missile Trajectories for Certain Aircraft Altitudes and Distances Between Radars
dL=c dt + dR
dL/2
Note: Relative Distances are Not to Scale
Note: Relative Distances are Not to Scale
“Ghost Target” identified as a ballistic missile due to its apparent altitude, speed, and rate of descent, which closely match that of a ballistic missile
Estimated Locations of Patriot Batteries
Aircraft at 30,000 ft
Aircraft at 15,000 ft
Cruise Missiles at 300 – 500 ft
Ranges at Which Patriot Batteries Can Illuminate Aircraft Flying at
Different Altitudes
Note: Radar Range Contours Assume that Patriot Batteries Can Search No Closer Than 3 Degrees from Local Horizontal Even With Horizon Diffraction.
Example of Overlapping Region Between Two Radars Where One of the Radars Could Create
False Ballistic Missile Targets for the Other
Example of Aircraft-Generated False Al Samoud / Al Fatah Trajectory from Two Similar Tracking Radars in the Same Operating Mode
Altit
ude
(km
)
20
10
Mach 0.85 Airplane
Ground Range (km)
00 10 20
Frog Ballistic Missile
4030 50
70
60
50
40
30
Al-SamoudShort-RangeBallistic Missile
Al Fatah /
7060 80
20 seconds18
1614
1210
Ghost Targets?
Ghost Target Generated from 0.1 MillisecondTime-Delay Between Arrival of a Second Pulsefrom a Second Nearby Operating Radar
Altitude, Speed, and Descent Rate of
Trajectory Seen by RadarRadar for 25 seconds
and Aircraft Shown at5 Second Intervals
Location of Missiles
12
17
Ballistic Missile and Aircraft Trajectories Expected by Patriot’s Artificial Intelligence Software in Operation Iraqi Freedom
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 800
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Ground Range (km)
Alti
tude
(km
)
Mach 2.5 Airplane
Mach 0.85 Airplane
Ballistic Missile
Al Husayn Scud
Short-Range
Location of Missiles
5 Second Intervalsand Aircraft Shown at
Frog Ballistic Missile
Mach 0.85 Cruise Missile
Al-SamoudAl Fatah /
AL HUSSEINLaunch
1Minute
Impact
~ 20 Secto
detect
~ 70 Sec for TES toProfile & broadcast
TDDS/TIBS
4Minutes
5Minutes
~ 20 Secfor
ellipse
~ 40 Sec toassess& warnPAWS & Conf
Bridge
~ 30Sec forpageralert
~ 6-7 min
Time for MSCs & Base Clustersto go through Battle Drills
AL SAMOUD /ABABIL-100
Launch
1Minute
2Minutes
Impact
~40 Secto clearhorizon
& to JDN
~ 3-4 min
Time for MSCs & Base Clusters to go through
Battle Drills
~ 20 to getbesttrack
~ 40 Sec toassess& warn
(PAWS &Conf Bridge)
~ 30Sec forpageralert
1st indicationof launch at CFLCC HQ.Initiate thePA Sys &
ConferenceBridge Alert
“SCUD” alert
2Minutes
3Minutes
Impactellipse
appears
Areas atrisk
announcedPAWS,
ConferenceBridge &
CFLCC CmdNet (SATCOM)
Pager goesoff
1st indicationof launch at CFLCC HQ. Initiate the PA Sys & Conference
Bridge Alert “SCUD” alert
Areas atrisk
announcedPAWS, Conf
Bridge &CFLCC Cmd
Net
Pager goesoff
= Time saved by announcing “Kuwait” at risk - not waiting forestimated impact ellipse
~ 3-4 min
~ 1:00 minor
~ 2:00 min(warning time once
EW gets to the MSC/Base)
Estimated Launch to Impact Timeline Estimated Launch to Impact Timeline
Actual total warning Actual total warning 30 30 -- 45 Seconds 45 Seconds
Launch to ImpactLaunch to Impact
Slide 50 from Briefing by the 32nd Army Air and Missile Defense Defense Command
Original Slide as Provided in the Briefing
Slide 50 from Briefing by the 32nd Army Air and Missile Defense Defense Command
Estimated Locations of Patriot Batteries