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June 2010
June 2010
1
Missile Defense and Missile Threats: Middle East Trends
Missile Defense and Missile Threats: Middle East Trends
Rubincon Ltd.
Defense Technology Consulting
Defense Technology Consulting
Missile Defense and Missile Threats: Middle East Trends
Missile Defense and Missile Threats: Middle East Trends
Uzi Rubin
• The Radical Alignment and its new doctrine of Hybrid War.
• The continued buildup of rockets and missile threats.
• Iran’s missile and space programs – an update.
All information herein come from open sources. Copyright Rubincon Ltd
June 2010
June 2010
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Missile Defense and Missile Threats: Middle East Trends
Missile Defense and Missile Threats: Middle East Trends
Rubincon Ltd.
Defense Technology Consulting
Defense Technology Consulting
Iran’s Lengthening Shadow: The Rise of the Radical Alignment
Hamas in Gaza
June 2010
June 2010
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Missile Defense and Missile Threats: Middle East Trends
Missile Defense and Missile Threats: Middle East Trends
Rubincon Ltd.
Defense Technology Consulting
Defense Technology Consulting
The Radicals’ New Military Doctrine: Hybrid Warfare
“We have devised a new type of warfare that is unlike
anything the world has ever seen, a kind of warfare that is
somewhere between regular war and guerilla”
Hassan Naserallah, 2008
• The underlying assumption is that Western societies are inherently weak,
morally corrupt and fearful of casualties. They lack the moral fiber and
willpower to sustain prolonged attritions.
• In contrast, the practitioners of Hybrid Warfare are strong, morally upright,
heroic and fearless – they “embrace death”.
• Hybrid Warfare seeks to exploit these perceived strengths and weaknesses to
defeat the antagonist’s society rather than his armed forces.
June 2010
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Missile Defense and Missile Threats: Middle East Trends
Missile Defense and Missile Threats: Middle East Trends
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Main Features of Hybrid Warfare
• Hybrid Warfare consists of three elements:
Deterrence by overt and highly visible threat of
attritional warfare against the adversary’s homeland
and population.
Once hostilities commence – attrition of the adversaries
mainly by rocket and missiles fired from within population centers into
population centers.
Preservation of the attritional capacity against counterattack by
decentralization and hiding of weapons, troops and command structures.
• Defeat and setbacks are neither conceded or permitted, regardless of cost in human
lives. “Victory” is invariably declared in each and every engagement.
• Offensive assets are deliberately embedded in population centers, exploiting
the aggressors’ own civilian casualties to publicly deligitimize Western adversaries.
Hybrid warfare characterization by Brig Gen Itai Brun, IDF Genral Staff
June 2010
June 2010
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Missile Defense and Missile Threats: Middle East Trends
Missile Defense and Missile Threats: Middle East Trends
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10 Rounds Basement “Pop Up” Launcher (Southern Lebanon)
June 2010
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Missile Defense and Missile Threats: Middle East Trends
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Converted Dumpster 9 Round “Pop Up” Launcher (Location Unknown)
Credit: Dr. Natan Farber
June 2010
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Missile Defense and Missile Threats: Middle East Trends
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Converted Donkey Cart Launcher (Baghdad)
June 2010
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Missile Defense and Missile Threats: Middle East Trends
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Conceptual basement “Pop Up” launcher for heavy rockets (Southern Lebanon, Gaza)
Credit: Dr. Natan Farber
June 2010
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Missile Defense and Missile Threats: Middle East Trends
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SCUD B
Range: 300 Km
Warheads: Explosive, Cemical
SCUD C
Range: C. 600 Km.
Warheads: Exploseive, Chemical
SCUD D
Range: C. 700 Km.
Warheads: Explosive, Chemical
Cluster – Runway demolition
Antipersonnel, Fuel/Air,
Probably terminally guided
Syria’s Scud Variants Missiles
June 2010
June 2010
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Missile Defense and Missile Threats: Middle East Trends
Missile Defense and Missile Threats: Middle East Trends
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Syria’s Heavy and Medium Rockets
M600 rocket
Range C. 300 Km.
Fully guided
“302 mm”’
Range C. 120 Km.
“220 mm”’
Range C. 70 Km.
(Russian “Ouragan” 220 mm MLRS)
Fatah 110 Image from www. Globalsecurity.com
China WS-1
June 2010
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M
M
600
600
Scud
Scud
D
D
Syria’s Ballistic Missiles and Rockets in Regional Context
June 2010
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M
M
600
600
Scud
Scud
D
D
Syria’s Ballistic Missiles and Rockets in Regional Context
June 2010
June 2010
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Missile Defense and Missile Threats: Middle East Trends
Missile Defense and Missile Threats: Middle East Trends
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Lebanon/Hizbullah Acquire Ballistic Missiles
SCUD B
Range: 300 Km
Fatah 110 guided rocket
Range: C. 200 Km.
June 2010
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Missile Defense and Missile Threats: Middle East Trends
Missile Defense and Missile Threats: Middle East Trends
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Gaza/Hamas Rockets
“Kassam” home made rockets
Ranges: 4 – 12 Km
Grad ER 122 mm artillery rocket
Range: 43 Km
Fajer 5 rocket
Range: 75 Km
Grad 122 mm artillery rocket
Range: 20 Km
June 2010
June 2010
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Missile Defense and Missile Threats: Middle East Trends
Missile Defense and Missile Threats: Middle East Trends
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A New Missile Player: Turkey ?
Chinese/Turkish B611/Yildirim Guided Rocket
June 2010
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Missile Defense and Missile Threats: Middle East Trends
Missile Defense and Missile Threats: Middle East Trends
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The Gulf States’ Response: “Mini National Missile Defenses”
• UAE rationale: Selecting between “Deterrence without Defense”,
“Deterrence with Defense” and “Defense without Deterrence”, the last
option was adapted.
THAAD, PAC 3
PAC 3
June 2010
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Iron Dome
Cost ratio ~0.01
David Sling
Cost ratio ~0.1
Arrow 3
Cost ratio ~0.75
Arrow 2
Cost: 1
Israel’s Response: The Multi Tier National Missile Defense System
Interoperable with Patriot, THAAD and AEGIS
June 2010
June 2010
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Are Iran’s ballistic missiles “Nuclear Capable?”
Shahab 3
Ghauri
No Dong
June 2010
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Range 1300 Km
Stretched Shahab 3
Declared range 2000 Km
Evolved Shahab 3 Variants
Shahab 3 As Acquired
Range 1800 Km?
Lightweight Shahab 3
(Renamed “Kadir 1”)
June 2010
June 2010
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Missile Defense and Missile Threats: Middle East Trends
Missile Defense and Missile Threats: Middle East Trends
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Iran’s Missile and Space Launcher Programs- an Update
The Shahab 3/Kadir 1 Liquid Propellant IRBM Program
Army Day Parade April 18
th
2010
June 2010
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Missile Defense and Missile Threats: Middle East Trends
Missile Defense and Missile Threats: Middle East Trends
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Iran’s Missile and Space Launcher Programs- an Update
The Shahab 3/Kadir 1 Liquid Propellant IRBM Program
Army Day Parade April 18
th
2010
June 2010
June 2010
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Missile Defense and Missile Threats: Middle East Trends
Missile Defense and Missile Threats: Middle East Trends
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Iran’s Missile and Space Launcher Programs- an Update
The Shahab 3/Kadir 1 Liquid Propellant IRBM Program
Ongoing RV Evolution
June 2010
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Missile Defense and Missile Threats: Middle East Trends
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From Ballistic Missiles to Space Launch Vehicles
2008: Kavoshgar test vehicle
2009: Safir Space Launch Vehicle2004: Shahab 3/Kadir 1
June 2010
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Missile Defense and Missile Threats: Middle East Trends
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Iran’s Missile and Space Launcher Programs- an Update
The New Liquid Propellant Simorgh Space Launcher
Announced Goal: Orbit the 70 Kg “Masbeh” in 2011
June 2010
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Missile Defense and Missile Threats: Middle East Trends
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Iran’s Missile and Space Launcher Programs- an Update
The New Liquid Propellant Simorgh Space Launcher and Launch Pad
Weight: 85 Tons. Lifting Capability to LEO: 700 Kg (?)
June 2010
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Missile Defense and Missile Threats: Middle East Trends
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Iran’s Missile and Space Launcher Programs- an Update
Iran’s
Rocket cluster
The New Liquid Propellant Simorgh Space Launcher
June 2010
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Missile Defense and Missile Threats: Middle East Trends
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Iran’s Missile and Space Launcher Programs- an Update
Russia’s
RD 107
Iran’s
Rocket cluster
The New Liquid Propellant Simorgh Space Launcher
June 2010
June 2010
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Missile Defense and Missile Threats: Middle East Trends
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Iran’s Missile and Space Launcher Programs- an Update
Single turbopump
Multiple turbopumps
Lateral Control Rockets
No Lateral Control Rockets
Russia’s
RD 107
Iran’s
Rocket cluster
The New Liquid Propellant Simorgh Space Launcher
June 2010
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Missile Defense and Missile Threats: Middle East Trends
Missile Defense and Missile Threats: Middle East Trends
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Iran’s Missile and Space Launcher Programs- an Update
The New Liquid Propellant Simorgh Space Launcher
A work in progress
June 2010
June 2010
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Missile Defense and Missile Threats: Middle East Trends
Missile Defense and Missile Threats: Middle East Trends
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Source: Norbert Brugge
Iran’s Missile and Space Launcher Programs- an Update
Simorgh Growth Potential
June 2010
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Missile Defense and Missile Threats: Middle East Trends
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From Scud Era Technology to Modern Solid Propellant Technology
Kadir 1 single stage liquid propellant IRBM
Sejjil two stage solid propellant IRBM
June 2010
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Missile Defense and Missile Threats: Middle East Trends
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The Sejil/Ashura Solid Propellant IRBM Program
September 27 2009 December 15 2009
2007
2008
2009 2010
?
Declared Range: “Almost 2000 Km”
Calculated Range: More than 2400 Km
June 2010
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Missile Defense and Missile Threats: Middle East Trends
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Guessing Game #1: When Will Iran Be Able to Threaten Europe?
“Iran will not be able, for at least ten to fifteen years,
to master independently the “critical technologies”
for advanced mobile or silo-based IRBMs and ICBMs
because it does not have the scientific, economic, and
industrial infrastructure for developing these critical
technologies”.
“It is.. logically sound and safe to conclude that the
Sejjil 2 should be deployed to the Iranian military forces
no sooner than 2012”
“A three stage version of the Sejjil 2 delivering a 1
tonne warhead to 3700 Km is at least four or five years
away from possible deployment”
EWI report May 2009
IISS report May 2010
June 2010
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• Calculations by Wilkening, Mantague and Rubin using the EWI Addendum
figures for the Sejjil dimensions, weights and ISP figures yield a range of no less
2460 Km. with a one ton payload.
• This is the distance between Tabriz and Warsaw.
Accordingly, Iran will be shortly capable of targeting 6 EU countries
(Poland, Slovakia, Rumania, Hungary, Bulgaria and Greece)
Guessing Game #1: When Will Iran Be Able to Threaten Europe?
June 2010
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Relevant Ranges for Europe Territorial Threats
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To target London and most of the EU, a relatively modest upscale of the Sejjil
might be sufficient:
First Stage: 31.50 ton
Second Stage: 5,78 ton
Warhead: 1,0 ton
Take off weight: 38.28 ton
This missile might be compact enough to be
transportable on an scaled up Shahab mobile
launcher
Not to scale
Guessing Game #1: When Will Iran Be Able to Threaten Europe?
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Guessing Game #2: When Will Iran Be Able to Threaten the US?
“Iran will not be able, for at least ten to fifteen years,
to master independently the “critical technologies”
for advanced mobile or silo-based IRBMs and ICBMs”.
EWI May 2009
“It is reasonable to conclude that a notional Iranian
ICBM based on No Dong and Scud technologies is
more than a decade away from development.”
IISS May 2010
DOD May 2010
“With sufficient foreign assistance, Iran could probably develop
and test an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) capable of
reaching the United States by 2015,"
June 2010
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Iran’s Missile Capabilities in Retrospect
2000: Iran is testing an imported single stage,
1300 Km missile.
2010: Iran is in space, testing an indigenous two
stage solid propellant 2400 Km missile, is
reputably 5 to 10 years away from ICBM.
June 2010
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Iran’s SLV orbits a 27 Kg. satellite, February 3
rd
2009
• Second launch planned for 2011 with the heavier “Masbeh” 70 Kg. satellite
• Declared roadmap:
Earth observation (spy) satellites to LEO
Communication Satellites to GEO
Iranian man in space.
Assessing Iran’s Long Term Capabilities
June 2010
June 2010
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Sejjil
Sejjil based heavy SLV
(notional)
An Optional Backdoor to Iranian ICBMs: Solid Propellant Space Launchers
June 2010
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Sejjil
ICBM
(notional)
Sejjil based heavy SLV
(notional)
An Optional Backdoor to Iranian ICBMs: Solid Propellant Space Launchers
June 2010
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Possible Implications of Iran’s nuclear and missile programs
• Iran is making extraordinary efforts to portray its missile and nuclear programs
as unlinked, normative and non threatening to world peace:
The missile program is portrayed as non nuclear and
limited to regional ranges (2000 Km).
The space program is portrayed as scientific and commercial.
The nuclear program is portrayed as an necessary addendum
to commercial power production and as limited to low level,
non weapon grade enrichment.
• Nevertheless, the overall impression is that of a persistent, well coordinated
effort to acquire the wherewithal – infrastructure, materials and human resources
– for an indigenous Iranian arsenal of global range nuclear missiles, once it
decides to build it.
• This could be one component in a vision to elevate Iran to the top echelon of
world powers, on par with the US, Russia and China.
June 2010
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Excerpts from Ahmadinejad’s Speech To Iranian Intellectuals
Isfahan, December 4
th
2009
(Die Welt, December 12
th
2009)
• “We must not allow those who have dominated the world for 400 years to
continue to oppress us and saddle us with their arrogance”.
• “The economic powers of America and the Western World are in decline.”
• “ Latin America is on its way to monotheism.”
• “A country that has ASAT but does not have oil cannot be important in the
world.” (presumably China)
• “We want to put the World’s economy and politics in order, but we have only a
limited time”.
“ We need to seek a new way of exercising power to manage the world”.
June 2010
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