Dr. Oscar Coto

II National CDM WorkshopBelize

August 2011

Estimation of Emissions Reductions in CDM Projects

Topics

1. CDM Methodologies

2. CDM Tools and guidances

3. Sources of information

4. Baseline, project and leakage emissions

5. Expected project emissions reductions

Estimation of emissions reductions in the CDM

a. Baseline emissions

b. Project emissions

c. Emissions due to leakage

Emissions reductions = a – (b + c)

Inputs

• CDM applicable methodology• Project boundaries• Sources and types of GHG• Tools and guidances of the CDM• IPCC estimative procedures• Specific informations• Etc.

Methodologies are vital in the CDM

• Compliance with CDM modalities and procedures

• Any CDM project must be eligible and should apply an approved baseline and monitoring methodology

• Approval can be requested for a new methodology but specific procedures apply

• Matching project activity and methodology is important

¿Why methodologies?

• A matter of regulatory principles• Important for replicability and conformance

with the UNFCCC and KP principles• Standarization and guidance

Types of CDM methodologies

Large scale

Consolidaded methodologies

Small scale methodologies

Status of methodologies

• Large scale: 77• Consolidated + 18 • Large scale A/R: 11• Consolidated A/R: 2• Small scale: 71 in 3 groups (energy generation,

energy efficiency, other types)• Small scale A/R: 7• Constant evolution on applicable versions

Taxonomy of a methodology

• I. Sources and applicability: approach, definitions, aplicability

• II. Baseline methodology: boundaries, estimative procedures, definition of baseline, emissions by source, etc.

• III. Monitoring methodology: data and parameters, descriptions, QC/QA procedures, plans, etc.

• IV. References and other information

Small scale methodology (SSC)

• Technology/ measures applicable• Frontiers• Baseline • Project emissions• Leakage• Emissions reductions• Monitoring• Considerations if the project is a part of a programe

of activities

Project boundaries

• Control principle

• Project contextualization, identification of relevant sources and types of GHGs

Project in the african palm industry

Capture and destruction of methane

in waste water in the

palm oil industry

Sugar cogeneration project

• Site of generation in the mill• Biomass transport to site• Interconnected generation (in

case of exports of electricity to a• Any site if there was natural

decay or decomposition of biomass in the baseline

CDM Tools

• Acompanny the methodologies and detail specific procedures and approaches for estimations of emissions

• 11 tools for large scale projects

• 11 tools, 4guidances for small scale projects

• 14 tools for large scale and SSC A/R projects

1. Tool for the demonstration and assessment of additionality Version 5.2 EB 39 annex 10

2. Combined tool to identify the baseline scenario and demonstrate additionality Version 2.2 EB 28 annex 14 T

3. Tool to calculate project or leakage CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion Version 2 EB 41 annex 11

4. Tool to determine methane emissions avoided from disposal of waste at a solid waste disposal site Version 5 EB 55 annex 18

5. Tool to calculate baseline, project and/or leakage emissions from electricity consumption Version 1 EB 39 annex 7

6. Tool to determine project emissions from flaring gases containing methane Version 1 EB 28 annex 13

7. Tool to calculate the emission factor for an electricity system Version 2 EB 50 annex 14

8. Tool to determine the mass flow of a greenhouse gas in a gaseous stream Version 1 EB 47 annex 10

9. Tool to determine the baseline efficiency of thermal or electric energy generation systems Version 1 EB 48 annex 12

10.Tool to determine the remaining lifetime of equipment Version 1 EB 50 annex 15

Emissions are related to …

• Types and sources of GHG and the associated significance to the specific conditions

• Delimitation of the project boundaries

• Relevant informations on the specific conditions that may apply to the process or project under consideration

Emissions sources could be …

• Emissions due to the generation of electricity in a power grid

• Emissions due to the decomposition of solid residues in a landfill

• Emissions due to the burning at open sky of biomass residues

• Etc.

Information could come from different sources

• “Default” factors• Specific project factors• Results from simulations, expert opinions, etc• Representative factors from similar technologies

applicable to the specific project conditions

In case of doubt … transparency and conservadurism

EB tends to specify conditions for information traceability in the documentation required

IPCC 2006 Guidelines are important sources of information

V1: General Guidance and Reporting

V2: Energy

V3: Industrial Processes and Product Use

V4: Agriculture, Forestry and other Land Use

V5: Waste

Available at www.ipcc.ch

Fuel Information

• IPCC default values

• Country specific

• In case country specific information is available, it is preferable to use it for the purpose of PDD estimations

Emissions associated to combustion of fossil fuels

COMBUSTIBLE CONT. ENERGÍA

CONTENIDO C/CO2

LPG 47.31 TJ/1000 ton

17.2 tC/TJ (0.063 k ton

CO2/TJ)

Diesel/LFO/no.2 43.3 TJ/1000 ton20.2 tC/TJ

(0.0741 k ton CO2/TJ

HFO/No. 6/BunkerC 40.2 TJ/1000 ton

21.1 tC/TJ (0.077 k ton

CO2/TJ)

Kerosene 44.75 TJ/1000 ton

19.6 tC/TJ(0.0719 k ton

CO2/TJ

Emissions associated to electricity consumption

• Product of the electricity consumed or saved multlied by an emission factor related to the source of electricity in the baseline

Emission factor for an electricity grid

• Remote systems• Interconnected systems• Represented by ton CO2 / MWh generated• Tools are available for its calculation

Information required for grid emission factors

General description of the sector

Types of installed capacity

Fuel consumptions by generation sources

Relevant context informations

Dispatch data

Etc.

Emission factor for grids in the region

País Factor de emisión

(T CO2/MWh)Costa Rica 0,32El Salvador 0,70Guatemala 0,65Honduras 0,65Nicaragua 0,75Panamá 0,56

RD 0,73

What about Belize?

Estimating Emissions Reductions involves the consideration of …

• Baseline emissions

• Project activity emissions

• Emissions due to leakage

Emissions in the baseline and project scenarios

Base Line Scenario

Project Scenario

Emissions

Time

Emissions that occur outside the project boundaries for which the project is responsible

Project

Baseline scenario

Project scenario

Leakage due to the project

Leakage

Remembering the PDD

At the PDD level

• Baseline information has to be included in Annex 3

• Project related emissions information has to be included in a section of the PDD

The net emissions reductions due to the CDM project activity are equal to

Baseline emissions –

Project activity emissions –

Emissions due to leakage

Now you know how to do it !

Select methodology

• Draw and understand the project boundaries• Define sources and types of GHG to consider• Construct a tableof emissions and equations/procedures• Construct your variable definitions and values• Estimate the relevant emissions due to baseline, project

and leakage