Polls, Surveys and Statistics
Reading, Reporting and Editing Numbers in Journalism
“There are lies,
there are damn lies,
and there are statistics.”- Benjamin Disraeli
Polls, Surveys and Statistics
• What is the purpose?
• When do we use them?
• Where do we get the information?
• How do we use them?
• Why do we use them?
• Are they important in agricultural news coverage?Examples…
Surveys and Polls
• Why are surveys used?– to gather information and opinions on
the issues of the day.
• How are surveys used?– Prediction, change, proof– Examples…
• What types of surveys do the media use?– Polls, sampling of readers, etc.
Editing Stories with Numbers
• Sources– Who are the participants?– Who sponsored the survey?– Know whom you are dealing with.
• Sample– How many people were questioned?– Whom do they represent?
Editing Stories with Numbers
• Sample– Systematic or stratified sample– Increases reliability– Divide respondents into specific groups
•Age
•Gender
•Education
•Income
•Marital status
•Party affiliation
•Location
•Ethnicity
Editing Stories with Numbers
• Margin of Error– Opinion surveys
• Plus or minus percentage points• Example – candidate is leading the polls 52
percent to 48 percent with a margin of error of +/- 4 points. What can we report?
– Scientific study• Confidence level
– What is the probability that the results are due to chance?
– .95 confidence level, So what?
Be Skeptical
• How do you know?
• Have you done a study?
• Compared to what?– Other studies– Consistent results
Checking the Numbers
• Calculate percentages 15/60 * 100• One out of: 60/15 = 1 out of 4• More than vs as much
– $10,000 building purchased for five times more than it is worth, what price did you pay?
– $10,000 building purchased for five times as much as it is worth, what price did you pay?
Checking the Numbers
• Increase or decrease– Increased to 6 percent from 1 percent– Increased from 1 percent to 6 percent– Decreased to 1 percent from 6 percent– Decreased from 6 percent to 1 percent
• More than or Less than• Be aware of rounding
• Percent Changeincrease to 6 – from 4 = 22/4 = .5 *100 = 50 percent increase
Checking the Numbers
• Percentages should equal 100.– Round to a single decimal
• Percent increase vs. Percentage points– Government spending increases to 20
percent of the budget from 10 percent, that is a 10 percentage point increase or 100 percent increase.
20-10 = 10/10 = 1*100 = 100 percent