Polls, Surveys and Statistics

Reading, Reporting and Editing Numbers in Journalism

“There are lies,

there are damn lies,

and there are statistics.”- Benjamin Disraeli

Polls, Surveys and Statistics

• What is the purpose?

• When do we use them?

• Where do we get the information?

• How do we use them?

• Why do we use them?

• Are they important in agricultural news coverage?Examples…

Surveys and Polls

• Why are surveys used?– to gather information and opinions on

the issues of the day.

• How are surveys used?– Prediction, change, proof– Examples…

• What types of surveys do the media use?– Polls, sampling of readers, etc.

Editing Stories with Numbers

• Sources– Who are the participants?– Who sponsored the survey?– Know whom you are dealing with.

• Sample– How many people were questioned?– Whom do they represent?

Editing Stories with Numbers

• Sample– Systematic or stratified sample– Increases reliability– Divide respondents into specific groups

•Age

•Gender

•Education

•Income

•Marital status

•Party affiliation

•Location

•Ethnicity

Editing Stories with Numbers

• Margin of Error– Opinion surveys

• Plus or minus percentage points• Example – candidate is leading the polls 52

percent to 48 percent with a margin of error of +/- 4 points. What can we report?

– Scientific study• Confidence level

– What is the probability that the results are due to chance?

– .95 confidence level, So what?

Be Skeptical

• How do you know?

• Have you done a study?

• Compared to what?– Other studies– Consistent results

Checking the Numbers

• Calculate percentages 15/60 * 100• One out of: 60/15 = 1 out of 4• More than vs as much

– $10,000 building purchased for five times more than it is worth, what price did you pay?

– $10,000 building purchased for five times as much as it is worth, what price did you pay?

Checking the Numbers

• Increase or decrease– Increased to 6 percent from 1 percent– Increased from 1 percent to 6 percent– Decreased to 1 percent from 6 percent– Decreased from 6 percent to 1 percent

• More than or Less than• Be aware of rounding

• Percent Changeincrease to 6 – from 4 = 22/4 = .5 *100 = 50 percent increase

Checking the Numbers

• Percentages should equal 100.– Round to a single decimal

• Percent increase vs. Percentage points– Government spending increases to 20

percent of the budget from 10 percent, that is a 10 percentage point increase or 100 percent increase.

20-10 = 10/10 = 1*100 = 100 percent