urbanization & landuse modeling in grape model

Urbanization & Landuse Modeling in GRAPE Model

Atsushi KUROSAWAThe Institute of Applied Energy (IAE), JAPAN

International Workshop on Urbanization, Development Pathways andCarbon ImplicationsTsukuba, Japan

March 28-30 2007

The views are solely those of the individual author and do not represent organizational views of IAE.

Outline

1.Urbanization and LanduseModeling

2.Carbon Management(*)(*) Collaboration WorkTakanobu Kosugi*1, Koji Tokimatsu*2, Norihiro Itsubo*2,3, Ryota Ii*4, Hiroshi Yagita*2,5, Masaji Sakagami*6*1 College of Policy Science, Ritsumeikan University*2 Research Center for Life Cycle Assessment, AIST*3 Musashi Institute of Technology*4 Pacific Consultants Co., Ltd.*5 Nippon Institute of Technology*6 Nihon Fukushi University

3.Summaries

Outline


2.Carbon Management

3.Summaries

Reg. Landuse & Food Bal.

FOREST

(FRS)

CROPLAND

(CRP)

GRASSLAND

(GRS)

URBAN

(URB)

OTHER AREA

(DSR)

CEREAL

GRASS

-FED

MEAT

GRASS

-FED

LIVESTOCK

CROP

-FED

LIVESTOCKHUMAN

BEING

OTHER

FOOD

PROTEIN

CALORIECROP

-FED

MEAT

LANDUSE LIVESTOCK & FOOD NUTRITION

TRADABLE

GOODS

function of

per capita GDP

function of

per capita GDP

# Modeling Urbanization

- Current Urbanization Area GLCC (Global Land Cover Characterization)USGS (U.S. Geological Survey)UNL (Univ. of Nebraska-Lincoln)JRC (EC Joint Research Center)Version 1 (1997)Satellite Data - Apr.1992 to March 1993Grid Data 1km x 1kmNew version (ver.2) available

Adjusted to base year (2000) using urban population information.

# Modeling Urbanization (cont.)

- GLCC (ver.1) classificationGrasslandWoodlandForestMosaics incl. AgricultureMosaics dominating AgricultureCroplandWetlandDesert, BarrenWater, CoastIce, Cold, DesertUrban – 24,928 Mha in 1992

# Modeling Urbanization (cont.)- Future Area Estimate

Urban Population Ratio Increase with Upper Bound (80%)

Same Population Density (base year)>>> Urban Area Required.

Urban Population Ratio

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

NAMR

WEUR

JAPN

OCEA

CPAS

SEAS

MENA

SSAF

LAMR

FSEE

# Modeling Urbanization (cont.)- Uncertainties in Urban Area Estimate

Urban Area DesignTransportation - Automobile or Mass Transit?Housing - Detached or CollectiveInfrastructure (Water, etc.)

Global Urban Area

0

10

20

30

40

50

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

(Mha)

FSEE

LAMR

SSAF

MENA

SEAS

CPAS

OCEA

JAPN

WEUR

NAMR

Outline


2.Carbon Management(*)(*) Collaboration WorkTakanobu Kosugi*1, Koji Tokimatsu*2, Norihiro Itsubo*2,3, Ryota Ii*4, Hiroshi Yagita*2,5, Masaji Sakagami*6*1 College of Policy Science, Ritsumeikan University*2 Research Center for Life Cycle Assessment, AIST*3 Musashi Institute of Technology*4 Pacific Consultants Co., Ltd.*5 Nippon Institute of Technology*6 Nihon Fukushi University

3.Summaries

# Coupling of IAM and LCIA: Motivation

* Existing Frameworks- Integrated assessment models (IAMs) to analyze climate change mitigation strategies.

- Life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) to make comprehensive analysis of environmental effects of product life cycle.

* Application to Adaptation StudyCoupling of IAM and LCIA can provide common and consistent framework basis for bottom-up and top-down integration in climate change impact assessment.

# LCIA tool LIME(*)

* Life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) tool for Japanese industrial production, marketing and environmental policy. Five years for development.(ref. Itsubo, et.al., Development of Weighting Factors for LCIA,

2003)

* Version 2 (LIME2) will be available soon.* Inventory – Impact – Category Endpoint

– Safegurd Subject – Single Index (i.e. Economic Valuation)

CO2

NOx

SOx

Land

Oil

Damage AssessmentFate Analysis Quality Analysis WeightingExposure Analysis

Inventory Concentration Impact Category Category Endpoint Safeguard

Subjects

Single Index

Single

index

Thermal/Cold Stress

Malaria

Skin Cancer

Cancer

Respiratory Disease

Cataract

Terrestrial

Aquatic

Plant

Benthos

Fishery

Crop

Energy

Materials

Global Warming

Acidification

Human toxicity (chemicals/metals)

Ecotoxicity

Ozone Depletion

Eutrophication

Oxidant

Creation

Land use

Benzene

NMVOC

TCDD

Lead

Total N

Total P

Waste

Copper ore

HCFCs

GHS in Air

Toxic. In Water

Toxic. In Soil

ODS in

Stratosphere

Toxic. In Air

Conc. Oxidant

Consumption of DO

Dep. of

Acidifying sub.

Resource Consumption

Cost

DALY

Primary

Productivity

Ecosystem

Biodiversity

Extinct Species

Dry weight

Human life

Waste

Dengue FavorHuman health

Social welfare

Air Pollution Disaster

CO2

NOx

SOx

Land

Oil



Subjects

Single Index

Single

index

Thermal/Cold Stress

Malaria

Skin Cancer

Cancer

Respiratory Disease

Cataract

Terrestrial

Aquatic

Plant

Benthos

Fishery

Crop

Energy

Materials

Global Warming

Acidification


Ecotoxicity

Ozone Depletion

Eutrophication

Oxidant

Creation

Land use

Benzene

NMVOC

TCDD

Lead

Total N

Total P

Waste

Copper ore

HCFCs

GHS in Air

Toxic. In Water

Toxic. In Soil

ODS in

Stratosphere

Toxic. In Air

Conc. Oxidant

Consumption of DO

Dep. of

Acidifying sub.


Cost

DALY

Primary

Productivity

Ecosystem

Biodiversity

Extinct Species

Dry weight

Human life

Waste


Social welfare


Social assets

GHGs Conc.

# MWTP (Marginal Willingness to Pay)

* Approach - Conjoint AnalysisStep 1: Questionnaires to Japanese PublicStep 2: Conditional Logit Model

(Random Utility Theory)Step 3: Estimation of MWTP* Coupling of MWTP with InventoryExampleJPY/DALY – MWTP for Human HealthDALY (Disability Adjusted Life Year)(DALY/kgCO2) * (JPY/DALY) = (JPY/kgCO2)

# Extension of LIME to world and future* Base year and Region : Japan, 2000* Proxy Indexes for ExtensionHuman Health – Population DensitySocial Assets – GDP/capitaNet Primary Productivity – Potential NPP by Chikugo Model- GCM and Mesh DataBiodiversity– Vascular plant numbers in IUCN red listof threatened species (no changes infuture numbers, because of large uncertainty)

#Extension of LIME to world and future (cont.)* Benefit Transfer : Income Effect Adjustment of MWTP (*1)MWTPr,t = MWTP janan,2000

*(GDPCAPr,t/GDPCAPjapan,2000)γγγγ

γ : γ : γ : γ : Income Elasticity (=0.5)

GDPCAP : GDP per Capita (*1) Conceptual Framework for Analyzing the Distribution of

Benefit and Costs of Environmental Policies, Pearce, 2003

�� Redefinition of GRAPE Damage Cost

# Impact Assessment of GRAPE and GRAPE/LIME

Literature survey and assumptions of authors

Not explicitly considered

Benefit Transfer

Literature survey and assumptions of authors

Climate zone adjustment

Extrapolation to other regions

Conjoint AnalysisNot explicitly considered

Willingness to Pay

LCIA (based on current Japanese condition)

Damage function of global average

temperature rise

Impact assessment method

Global warming, Acidification, Urban Air

Pollution, LU&LUCGlobal warmingImpact category

GRAPE/LIMEGRAPE

Other landuseOther landuse

BuildingsUrban

Agricultural fieldCropland

WastelandGrassland

ForestryForestry

LIME category proxyGRAPE

LIME / original definitionRice field, Agricultural field, Fruit tree area, Other tree area, Forestry, Wasteland, Buildings, Desert, Traffic (roads, railroads etc.), Other landuse

# GRAPE and LIME- Definition of Landuse Categories

# GRAPE output and “Impact Categories”&”Safeguard Subjects” of LIME

Primary Productivity, Biodiversity

Land UseLand Use Change (LUC)

Primary ProductivityLand UseLand Use (LU)

Human health, Social Assets, Primary Productivity

Acidification,Urban Air Pollution

SOx

Human health, Social Assets

Global Warming

6 Kyoto GHGs

Safeguard SubjectsImpact Categories

LIMEGRAPE output(Inventories in

LIME)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

year

Exte

rna

l costs

in p

erc

enta

ge

GD

P [

%]

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

Exte

rna

l C

osts

[B

illio

n $

/yr]

Land Use Change

Land Use

SOx

GHG

%GWP

# Global Total External Costs by Inventories

Tokimatsu, Itsubo, Kurosawa, Kosugi, Yagita and Sakagami, A simulation study of merging a lifecycle impact assessment (LCIA) with integrated assessment model (IAM) – a optimal economic growth via interlizingexternal costs by environmental impacts – (in Japanese), Kankyo Kagaku Kaishi, vol.19 no.1, pp25-36, 2006.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

year

Exte

rna

l co

sts

in p

erc

en

tag

eG

DP

[%

]

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

Exte

rna

l C

osts

[B

illio

n $

/yr]

Biodiversity

Primary Production

Social Assets

Humal Health

%GWP

# Global Total External Costs by Safeguard Subjects

Tokimatsu, Itsubo, Kurosawa, Kosugi, Yagita and Sakagami, A simulation study of merging a lifecycle impact assessment (LCIA) with integrated assessment model (IAM) – a optimal economic growth via interlizingexternal costs by environmental impacts – (in Japanese), Kankyo Kagaku Kaishi, vol.19 no.1, pp25-36, 2006.

Global Landuse (NOFDBK) [Billion ha]Global Landuse (NOFDBK) [Billion ha]Global Landuse (NOFDBK) [Billion ha]Global Landuse (NOFDBK) [Billion ha]

00002222444466668888101010101212121214141414

2000200020002000 2020202020202020 2040204020402040 2060206020602060 2080208020802080 2100210021002100都市都市都市都市そのそのそのその他他他他耕地耕地耕地耕地草地草地草地草地森林森林森林森林

Global Landuse Global Landuse Global Landuse Global Landuse ((((FDBKFDBKFDBKFDBK))))　　　　[[[[Billion haBillion haBillion haBillion ha]]]]

00002222444466668888101010101212121214141414

2000200020002000 2020202020202020 2040204020402040 2060206020602060 2080208020802080 2100210021002100都市都市都市都市そのそのそのその他他他他耕地耕地耕地耕地草地草地草地草地森林森林森林森林

UrbanOthersCroplandGrasslandForest

# LU & LUC

Forest Area Change- Biodiversity- NPP

UrbanOthersCroplandGrasslandForest

Global Sustainable Development Indices Global Sustainable Development Indices

for the Future:for the Future:

A Simulation Study Linked IAM with LCIA

Takanobu Kosugi*1, Koji Tokimatsu*2, Atsushi Kurosawa*3,

Norihiro Itsubo*2,4, Ryota Ii*5, Hiroshi Yagita*2,6, Masaji Sakagami*7

*1 College of Policy Science, Ritsumeikan University

*2 Research Center for Life Cycle Assessment,

National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology

*3 The Institute of Applied Energy

*4 Musashi Institute of Technology

*5 Pacific Consultants Co., Ltd.

*6 Nippon Institute of Technology

*7 Nihon Fukushi University

The 7th International Conference on EcoBalance

Nov. 14-16, 2006, at EPOCHAL TSUKUBA, Tsukuba, JAPAN

ObjectiveObjective

• Presenting

– a methodology to assess energy and materials systems from a

viewpoint of sustainable development in the future;

– preliminary results giving insights on energy and material-

related policies for sustainable development in 21st century.

• Core methodology: extension and application of

GRAPE/LIME model, which merges an IAM

GRAPE and a LCIA method LIME.

– GRAPE is extended to be coupled with a new submodel that

explicitly deals with the materials supply and demand systems

including mining, refining and recycling of iron and steel,

aluminum and copper.

Kosugi, Tokimatsu, Kurosawa, Itsubo, Ii, Yagita, Sakagami, Global Sustainable Development Indices for the Future:A simulation study of merging a lifecycle impact assessment (LCIA) with integrated assessment model (IAM), The 7th International Conference on EcoBalance, 2006, Tsukuba, JAPAN

Human health, Social Assets,

Biodiversity, Primary Productivity

Carbon(D

eforestation)

CH

4(Livestock,Rice)

N2O

(Fertilizer),etc

ENERGY&MATERIAL

CLIMATE

IMPACT(LIME) LAND USE

ECONOMY

CO

2,CH

4,N2O

(Foss

il Fuel

)

Energy&M

aterial Cost

Energy&M

aterial

Trade

GH

G em

ission

OD

S em

ission L

anduse

Rel

ated

Cos

t

Foo

d/W

ood

Tra

de f(K,L,E,N,M)

- Energy

- Material

- landuse

- externalities

Carbon Trade

Bio

mass E

nerg

y

Lan

d

Deg

radatio

n

Landuse&change

Structure of GRAPE/LIME linkageStructure of GRAPE/LIME linkage

Kosugi, Tokimatsu, Kurosawa, Itsubo, Ii, Yagita, Sakagami, Global Sustainable Development Indices for the Future: A simulation study of merging a lifecycle impact assessment (LCIA) with integrated assessment model (IAM), The 7th International Conference on EcoBalance, 2006, Tsukuba, JAPAN

LIME LIME –– A Life Cycle Impact Assessment MethodA Life Cycle Impact Assessment Method



Subjects

Single Index

Single

index

(yen)

Thermal/Cold Stress

Malaria

Skin Cancer

Cancer

Respiratory Disease

Cataract

Terrestrial

Aquatic

Plant

Benthos

Fishery

Crop

Energy

Materials

Global Warming

Acidification


Ecotoxicity

Ozone Depletion

Eutrophication

Oxidant

Creation

Land use

CO2

NOx

SOx

Benzene

NMVOC

TCDD

Lead

Total N

Total P

Oil

Waste

Copper ore

Land

HCFCs

GHS in Air

Toxic. In Water

Toxic. In Soil

ODS in

Stratosphere

Toxic. In Air

Conc. Oxidant

Consumption of DO

Dep. of

Acidifying sub.


Cost

DALY

Primary

Productivity

Ecosystem

Biodiversity

Extinct Species

Dry weight

Human life

Waste


Social welfare



GRAPE/LIME linkageGRAPE/LIME linkageIntegrated assessment model for energy/economy (GRAPE)

Japanese version of lifecycle impact assessment (LIME)

Mergining two models - GRAPE and LIME

Optimal growth simulation by internalizing externalities

yrrgyrrgtyrrg ITKK ,0,1, )1( ⋅+⋅−=+ δ

yrrgyrrgyrrg LUCEMCMNELKfY ,,, ),,,,( −−=

yrrgyrrgyrrg IYC ,,, −=

( ) maxlog1,

,

,0 →

⋅⋅+= ∑ ∑ ⋅−

yr rg yrrg

yrrg

yrrg

Tyr

L

CLrU

yrrgyrrgyrrgyrrg EXTLUCEMCMNELKfY ,,,, ),,,,( −−−=

( )∑ ∑ ×=i s

SiS IFInvEXT ,.

EXT：total amount of environmental impacts: externalitiesInvs：inventory of environmental impact substanceIFis：monetary value of environmental impact for a unit of the substance


3. Summaries

* Urban area will increase by economic growth, population growth and migration from rural area.

* Urbanization will change the carbon stock of land through NPP change.

* Local environment and global environment assessment will be merged by linking IAM and LCIA.

* How should we model future urbanuncertainties?

urbanization & landuse modeling in grape model

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