james anderson - global seafood alliance

1

James Anderson World Bank –University of Rhode Island United States Dr. James Anderson leads the World Bank’s Global Program on Fisheries and Aquaculture. He previously chaired the Department of Environmental & Natural Resource Economics at the University of Rhode Island.

Anderson was also the editor of Marine Resource Economics from 1999 through 2011.

Anderson’s recent work has focused on the role of seafood in food security, constraints to aquaculture development and seafood market analysis.

Shrimp Production Review James L. Anderson

The World Bank, Washington, DC, USA

Diego Valderrama Food and Resource Economics Department, University of Florida, USA

GOAL 2013 Shrimp Production Survey

Issues & Challenges

GOAL 2013 Survey Shrimp Aquaculture Production by World Region:

1991 - 2015

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

Million MT

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Other Middle East / Northern Africa Americas India China Southeast Asia

Sources: FAO (2013) for 1991-2011; GOAL (2013) for 2012-2015. Southeast Asia includes Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Malaysia, Philippines, Myanmar and Taiwan. M. rosenbergii is not included.

2006 - 2011 Annual growth rate: 4.8%

2013- 2015 Projected annual growth rate: 6.9%

-5.7%: 2011-12 -9.6%: 2012-13

EMS/AHPNS initially surfaced in China in 2009 and then spread to Vietnam and Thailand. Global production is expected to be about 15% below the 2011 levels.

GOAL 2013 Survey Shrimp Aquaculture Production by World Region:

1991 - 2015

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

Million MT

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Expectation Other Middle East / Northern Africa Americas India China Southeast Asia


2006 - 2011 Annual growth rate: 4.8%

2013 is 23% below expectation

Shrimp Aquaculture by Major Producing Regions: 2008 – 2015

0.0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

1.5

1.8

Million MT

Southeast Asia China India Americas Middle East / NorthAfrica

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015


Impact of AHPNS: China, Thailand and Mexico report the largest declines in production in 2013.

Shrimp Aquaculture by Major Producing Regions: 2008-2011 vs. 2011-2015

3.2%6.6% 4.3%

10.0%7.0%

30.5%

5.0%

1.4%

-0.4%

-6.3%-12%

-6%

0%

6%

12%

18%

24%

30%

36%

Southeast Asia China India Americas Middle East /North Africa

Average Annual Growth Rate

2008-2011 2011-2015


Shrimp Aquaculture in Asia: 2008 – 2015 Major Producers

0.0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

1.5

1.8

Million MT

China Thailand Vietnam Indonesia India

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Sources: FAO (2013) for 2008-2011; GOAL (2013) for 2012-2015. M. rosenbergii is not included.

EMS related declines 2011-13 are expected for China (-26%), Thailand (-47%) and Vietnam (-43%).

India and Indonesia expect substantial increases in production 2011-13: +136 and +42%, respectively), assuming no major impact from EMS/AHPNS.

Shrimp Aquaculture in Asia: 2008 – 2015

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Thousand MT

Bangladesh Malaysia Philippines Myanmar

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015


FAO statistics seem to under-estimate current production levels in Myanmar.

Shrimp Aquaculture in Asia: 2008 – 2015

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Thousand MT

Taiwan South Korea Japan

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015


Taiwan also produces significant amounts of Macrobrachium rosenbergii (around 6,000 tons, not shown here).

Shrimp Aquaculture in Asia: 2008-2011 vs. 2011-2015

7.0%9.2% 8.1%

-0.7%

6.6%

0.5%2.9%

-11.7%

30.5%

10.7%

-6.3% -5.8%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

China Thailand Vietnam Indonesia India Bangladesh


2008-2011 2011-2015


Shrimp Aquaculture in Asia: 2008-2011 vs. 2011-2015

9.8%

2.0%0.3%

-5.7%

14.1%

2.8%

-1.6%

19.7%

5.6%4.9%3.5%

1.2%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Malaysia Philippines Myanmar Taiwan South Korea Japan


2008-2011 2011-2015


Shrimp Aquaculture in Latin America: 2008 – 2015 Major Producers

0

40

80

120

160

200

240

280

Thousand MT

Ecuador Mexico Brazil

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015


Mexico heavily impacted by AHPNS in 2013:

production down by 60%, with partial recovery afterwards.

Brazil expects to reach 100,000 tons by 2015.

Shrimp Aquaculture in Latin America: 2008 – 2015

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

28

32

Thousand MT

Honduras Peru Guatemala Nicaragua Venezuela Colombia Belize

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015


Most countries in Latin America expect to increase production by 2015 with the exception of Colombia, where the industry is expected to contract.

Shrimp Aquaculture in Latin America: 2008 – 2015

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Thousand MT

Panama Costa Rica Cuba El Salvador DominicanRepublic

Jamaica

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015


Production projections for Latin America are based on the assumption that AHPNS will not spread outside Mexico.

Shrimp Aquaculture in Other Reporting Countries: 2008 – 2015

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Thousand MT

Egypt Madagascar Australia New Caledonia

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015


P. stylirostris

P. monodon and merguiensis

P. monodon

Fenneropenaeus indicus;

P. japonicus;

P. semisulcatus.

World Shrimp Aquaculture (including M. rosenbergii) by Species: 1991 - 2015

0.0

0.6

1.2

1.8

2.4

3.0

3.6

4.2

Million MT

1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

P. vannamei P. monodon M. rosenbergii Other

12%

59%

67% 65%

71%

Percentages indicate the share of P. vannamei.

16%

72%

45%

76%

Sources: FAO (2013) for 1991-2011; GOAL (2013) for 2012-2015.

Shrimp Aquaculture (including M. rosenbergii) in Asia by Species: 1991 - 2015

0.0

0.6

1.2

1.8

2.4

3.0

3.6

Million MT

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

P. vannamei P. monodon M. rosenbergii Other

53%

63% 61%

68%

69%


37%

72%

7%

Sources: FAO (2013) for 1991-2011; GOAL (2013) for 2012-2015.

World Landings of Wild-Caught Shrimp by Species

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

Million MT Others / NS

Atlantic seabob(Xiphopenaeus kroyeri)

Northern white shrimp(Penaeus setiferus)

Northern brown shrimp(Penaeus aztecus)

Argentine red shrimp(Pleoticus muelleri)

Banana prawn (Penaeusmerguiensis)

Fleshy prawn (Penaeuschinensis)

Giant tiger prawn(Penaeus monodon)

Southern rough shrimp(Trachipenaeuscurvirostris) Northern prawn(Pandalus borealis)

Akiami paste shrimp(Acetes japonicus)

Source: FAO (2013).

World Production of Shrimp Capture Fisheries & Aquaculture

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

Million MT

Capture Fisheries Aquaculture Source: FAO (2013). Notes: M. rosenbergii is not included. China includes freshwater production of P. vannamei.

Aquaculture accounted for 54% of world shrimp supplies in 2011.

26 %

28%

54%

World Production of Shrimp by Species Capture Fisheries & Aquaculture Combined

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

Million MT

Others/NS

P. merguiensis

P. chinensis

Trachypenaeuscurvirostris

Pandalus borealis

Acetes japonicus

P. monodon

P. vannamei

Source: FAO (2013). Notes: M. rosenbergii is not included. Freshwater production of P. vannamei in China is included.

P. vannamei is the most important species in the world, with virtually all production coming from aquaculture.


4 %

28 %

40 %

Composition of Shrimp Aquaculture Production by Size Categories –

Comparison of Survey Data for Asia

7% 6% 7% 7% 5% 5%

18% 16% 14%17%

9% 9%

29% 30% 30% 23%

15% 16%

22% 19% 20% 21%

19% 25%

10% 12% 10% 15%

19%18%

6% 7% 7%7%

15% 11%

7% 5% 8% 5%12% 12%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

GOAL 2008 GOAL 2009 GOAL 2010 GOAL 2011 GOAL 2012 GOAL 2013

>70

61-70

51-60

41-50

31-40

26-30

21-25

15-20

<15

27%

46% 41%

Disease problems in Asia led to the harvesting of smaller sizes in 2011 and 2012.

25% 24% 23%

Composition of Shrimp Aquaculture Production by Size Categories –

Comparison of Survey Data for the Americas

16% 10% 11%9% 4% 7%

18%19% 15%

15%

8%10%

16% 20% 20%22%

22%19%

16% 19% 22% 23%

24% 21%

15% 13% 15%12%

17% 18%

11% 10%10%

10%13% 10%

6% 7% 4% 8% 10% 14%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

GOAL 2008 GOAL 2009 GOAL 2010 GOAL 2011 GOAL 2012 GOAL 2013

>70

61-70

51-60

41-50

31-40

26-30

21-25

15-20

<15

71%

29%

58%

42%

There is also a trend towards smaller sizes in Latin America.

GOAL 2013 Survey Composition of Shrimp Aquaculture Production by

Size Categories – Aggregate 2012

9%

11%

14%

6%

15%

9%

19%

16%

12%

24%

10%

18%

6%

11%

4%12%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

US Imports World Supply

>70

61-70

51-60

41-50

31-40

26-30

21-25

15-20

<15

Source: GOAL (2013).

20% 41%

US size mix was consist with the production mix before 2011. Since the global supply is shifting toward smaller shrimp , the US market will have increasing price pressure

Expected Trends in Shrimp Aquaculture Size Categories - GOAL Survey 2013

Size Category Asia Americas World

<15 Decrease/Stable Stable Decrease/Stable

15-‐20 Stable Stable Stable

21-‐25 Stable Increase/Stable Stable

26-‐30 Stable Stable Stable

31-‐40 Decrease/Stable Increase Stable

41-‐50 Decrease/Stable Stable Decrease/Stable

51-‐60 Decrease Stable Decrease

61-‐70 Stable Stable/Decrease Stable

>70 Increase Decrease Increase

China expects increased production of >70 shrimp while Ecuador foresees a shift from smaller to larger counts.

Expected Trends in Shrimp Aquaculture Product Form - GOAL Survey 2013

Product Form Asia Americas World

Green / Head-‐on Stable/Decrease Increase Stable

Green / Head-‐off Stable/Decrease Stable/Decrease Stable/Decrease

Peeled Stable Increase Stable

Cooked Stable Increase Stable

Breaded Increase Increase Increase

Other Forms Stable/Increase Increase Stable/Increase

Production of green/head-off shrimp relative to other product forms will decrease in

Ecuador.

Diseases***Production costs - Feed/Fishmeal

Access to disease-free broodstock***International market prices

Seed stock quality & availabilityProduction costs - Others

Environmental managementFeed quality and availability

Product quality controlProduction costs - Fuel

Access to CreditBanned chemicals / antibiotic use

***International trade barriersMarket coordination

InfrastructureConflicts with other users

Public Relations Management

Not Important Extremely Important

Moderately Important

GOAL 2013 Survey Issues & Challenges in Shrimp Aquaculture

All Countries

Asterisk indicates a Top 3 issue in GOAL 2007 Survey

Diseases

Production costs - Feed/Fishmeal

Access to disease-free broodstock

International market prices

Seed stock quality & availability

Production costs - Others

Environmental management

Production costs - Fuel

Access to Credit

International trade barriers

2013 2012

Worldwide Top Issues & Challenges in Shrimp Aquaculture: 2013 Survey vs. 2012 Survey



***DiseasesAccess to disease-free broodstock

***Production costs - Feed/FishmealSeed stock quality & availability

International market pricesEnvironmental management

Production costs - OthersProduct quality controlProduction costs - Fuel

Feed quality and availabilityBanned chemicals / antibiotic use

Access to Credit***International trade barriers

Market coordinationInfrastructure

Conflicts with other users Public Relations Management



GOAL 2013 Survey Issues & Challenges in Shrimp Aquaculture - Asia


***Diseases***International market prices

Access to Credit***Production costs - Feed/Fishmeal

Production costs - OthersAccess to disease-free broodstock

Feed quality and availabilityMarket coordination

International trade barriersSeed stock quality & availability

InfrastructureEnvironmental management

Production costs - FuelProduct quality control

Public Relations ManagementConflicts with other users

Banned chemicals / antibiotic use



GOAL 2013 Survey Issues & Challenges in Shrimp Aquaculture

Latin America


Diseases

Access to disease-free broodstock

Production costs - Feed/Fishmeal

Seed stock quality & availability

International market prices

Environmental management

Production costs - Others

Feed quality and availability

Access to Credit

International trade barriers

Asia Americas

GOAL 2013 Survey Top Issues & Challenges in Shrimp Aquaculture

Asia vs. Latin America



GOAL 2013 Survey Global economic conditions will be better

in 2014 compared to 2013

Outlook Asia Americas Others

Strongly Agree Belize, Cuba, Ecuador, Jamaica

Agree Bangladesh, China, India, Taiwan

Brazil, Colombia, Dominican Rep., El

Salvador, Guatemala, Mexico, Nicaragua, Peru

Neutral/No Opinion Indonesia, Malaysia,

Myanmar, Philippines, S. Korea, Thailand, Vietnam

Costa Rica, Honduras, Panama, Venezuela

Australia, New Caledonia

Disagree Egypt

Strongly Disagree

GOAL 2013 Survey Feed prices will be lower in 2014 compared to 2013


Strongly Agree

Agree Vietnam Brazil, El Salvador

Neutral/No Opinion S. Korea Colombia, Costa Rica

Disagree Bangladesh, China, India,

Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, Taiwan, Thailand

Belize, Cuba, Dominican Rep., Ecuador, Guatemala, Honduras, Jamaica, Mexico,

Nicaragua, Panama, Venezuela

Australia, Egypt

Strongly Disagree Philippines Peru New Caledonia

GOAL 2013 Survey The global shrimp market will strengthen in 2014

compared to 2013


Strongly Agree Myanmar, Taiwan Ecuador, Jamaica

Agree Bangladesh, China, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam

Belize, Brazil, Colombia, Cuba, Dominican Rep., El Salvador, Guatemala,

Panama, Peru, Venezuela

New Caledonia

Neutral/No Opinion India, Indonesia, Malaysia, South Korea Costa Rica, Honduras

Disagree Mexico, Nicaragua Australia, Egypt

Strongly Disagree

35

Trends in Trade: US, Japan, EU (France, Spain)

U.S. Shrimp Imports Down over 15% since 2011

0

80

160

240

320

400

480

560

640

1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013*

Thou

sand

MT

Other

Honduras

Malaysia

Mexico

China

Vietnam

India

Indonesia

Ecuador

Thailand

Source: USDC/NMFS (2013) * Estimate

After peaking in 2010 at 203,000 tons, imports from Thailand declined in 2011 and 2012

and are expected to fall even further in 2013 to around 90,000 tons. Ecuador, Indonesia,

and India are picking up some of the slack. Imports from Mexico have also fallen.

U.S. Landings of Wild-Caught Shrimp

0

40

80

120

160

20019

8019

8119

8219

8319

8419

8519

8619

8719

8819

8919

9019

9119

9219

9319

9419

9519

9619

9719

9819

9920

0020

0120

0220

0320

0420

0520

0620

0720

0820

0920

1020

1120

12

OthersPinkWhiteBrown

Source: USDC/NMFS (2012)

Thou

sand

MT

Trends in U.S. Shrimp Import Prices

Source: USDC/NMFS (2013)

-‐

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

10.00

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

2000

USD

/lb

<15/lb 31-‐40 >70/lb Peeled Composite

Real prices have been increasing since 2010.

P. monodon vs. P. vannamei U.S. Wholesale Prices

Source: Urner Barry (2013)

(2.00)

(1.00)

-‐

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

Jan-‐99 Jan-‐00 Jan-‐01 Jan-‐02 Jan-‐03 Jan-‐04 Jan-‐05 Jan-‐06 Jan-‐07 Jan-‐08 Jan-‐09 Jan-‐10 Jan-‐11 Jan-‐12 Jan-‐13

USD/

lb

Farmed, Ecuador White, 26-‐30 Farmed, SE Asian Tiger, 26-‐30 Premium (White minus Tiger)

Wholesale shrimp prices have been rising since 2010 but increased sharply during 2013, reflecting the reduced

availability of imported shrimp in the U.S. market as a result of EMS/AHPNS.

Spanish Shrimp Imports Down 22% since 2011

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013*

Thou

sand

MT

Others India Honduras Morocco Senegal Thailand Nicaragua China Ecuador Argentina

Source: Eurostat (2013) * Estimate

Reflecting the difficult economic conditions in the country, the Spanish market

contracted substantially in 2012 and is expected to contract even further in 2013 (-20%

relative to 2011). Argentina and Ecuador currently supply around 50% of the market.

French Shrimp Imports Down 3% since 2011

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013*

Thou

sand

MT

Others Vietnam Thailand Venezuela Madagascar Spain Netherlands Belgium India Ecuador

Source: Eurostat (2013) * Estimate

Ecuador’s exports to France have increased dramatically since 2001, currently

accounting for approximately 30% of the import market. Ecuador is also increasing

shipments to Asian markets (China, Vietnam).

Conclusion

2013 production is 15% less than 2011

23% less than the expected for trajectory for 2013 based on the past decade

Disease

Biggest Risk, Undermines market development, Under-investment in disease management

42

Thank You [email protected]

james anderson - global seafood alliance

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