Atmosphere Monitoring

CAMS Regional Production

QA/QC for AQ Assessment

Augustin Colette (INERIS, FR)

Fairmode Plenary, March, 1st, 2021

AtmosphereMonitoring

C A M S Q A / Q C f o r A Q A s s e s s m e n t

• Quality Assurance

– Model Documentation

– EIONET observations

• Quality Control

– Evaluation reports

– Continuous improvement

AtmosphereMonitoring

C A M S _ 5 0 : R e g i o n a l P r o d u c t i o n

• Near Real Time Forecast (D+0,1,2,3)• Near Real Time Analyses (E2a, D-1)

• Interim Analyses (E2a, D-20), March YY+1• Validated Analyses (E1a), Sep YY+2

AtmosphereMonitoring

• Full report available from: – https://atmosphere.copernicus.eu/documentation-

regional-systems/

• Includes, for each of the 9 operational models + ENSEMBLE– Synthetic factsheet– Forward model

• Model geometry• Forcings and boundary conditions

– Meteorology– Chemistry– Surface emissions

• Dynamical core• Physical parameterisations

– Turbulence and convection– Deposition

• Chemistry and aerosols

– Assimilation system

• Updated after each major upgrade, or at least twiceyearly

M o d e l D o c u m e n t a t i o n

AtmosphereMonitoring

• NRT Production (Forecasts/Analyses: D-1)– EIONET AQ e-reporting E2a UTD data

– Objective classification: • Joly&Peuch Atmos. Env. 2012

• Amplitude of daily/weekly cycles

• 1-5: mainly rural/suburban

• 6-7: mainly urban

– Last update: fall 2020• Extend historical training period

• Include classes 6-7: to increase the focus on urban areas

• Reanalyses (Validated E1a /Interim E2a D-20)– rural, suburban and urban stations labelled as

“background”

– 66% “assimilated” (red) and 33% “evaluation” (blue) based on station density criteria and closest neighbors

• Regular updates of the lists of stations included in the evaluations documented in quarterly reports

I n s i t u E I O N E T A Q o b s e r v a t i o n s

AtmosphereMonitoring

• Annual report for Validated (Y+2) and Interim(Y+1) analyses

• Pollutants: O3, NO2, PM10, PM2.5, SO2, CO

• Diagnostics:

– Taylor diagram for Europe

– Maps of RMSE/Bias/Corr

– Mean score by large European region & station typology

– Threshold detection, contingency tables and Performance Diagrams

• Key Performance indicators

Q C : V a l i d a t e d & I n t e r i m R e a n a l y s e s

O3max NO2max PM10 PM2.5

IRA/RMSE 16 22 18 18

VRA/RMSE 16 22 18 18

IRA/RBIAS 35% 50% 50%

VRA/RBIAS 35% 50% 50%

AtmosphereMonitoring • Quarterly reports

– https://atmosphere.copernicus.eu/index.php/regional-services

– Timeliness of daily production

– Surface evaluation (E2a): O3, NO2, PM10, PM2.5

– For each of the 9 operational models+ ENSEMBLE

– KPI: European median of RMSE• O3max 16µg/m3, NO2max:

22µg/m3, PM10 16µg/m3, PM2.5 16µg/m3

• Score methodology– https://regional.atmosphere.copernic

us.eu/doc/USER_GUIDE_VERIFICATION_STATISTICS.pdf

Q C : N R T A n a l y s e s ( D - 1 )

AtmosphereMonitoring • Ongoing developments to include

Deltatool MQI/MQO in quarterlyevaluation of operational analyses

• Tested for ENSEMBLE and individualmodels

• O3, NO2, PM10

• CAMS_50 very interested in testing the new FAIRMODE forecast indicators!

Q C : N R T A n a l y s e s

AtmosphereMonitoring • Evaluation above the surface (CAMS_84)

• Quarterly report:

– https://atmosphere.copernicus.eu/index.php/regional-services

• Comparison individual models & global (IFS)

– High altitude Eionet & GAW stations

– Ozone sondes

– IAGOS/MOZAIC

– Satellite: GOME-2 (NO2), MOPIT (CO)

– Surface remote sensing (DOAS)

– Earlinet extinction profiles

Q C : e v a l u a t i o n a b o v e t h e s u r f a c e

AtmosphereMonitoring • CAMS_61: regional development

– Analyze forecast results and dedicated model runs to suggest developments that can improve the forecast for individual model and for the regional models in general

– Phase 1 (Jan-June 20): analyze 2018 and 2019 NRT production• https://aerocom-

evaluation.met.no/main.php?project=cams61&exp=2018-day1

– Phase 2 (June 20-Feb 21): analyze model reruns for 2018 with detailed chemical speciation and other output

• https://aerocom-evaluation.met.no/overall.php?project=cams61_p2&exp=2018-rerun

– Phase 3 (Feb 21-June21): analyze sensitivity runs (focused on specific topics identified in phase 1+2)

• Scope of chemical evaluation to validate model applications for source apportionment– Joint EMEP/CAMS model intercomparison for residential wood

burning (Eurodelta-Carb)

• Further developments expected with NRT data flow fromACTRIS observations

Q C : M o d e l D e v e l o p m e n tExample from phase 2 evaluation

Still Work in Progress

Courtesy H. Fagerli, MetNO & CAMS_61 partners

AtmosphereMonitoring • Quality Assurance

– Model Documentation

– EIONET observations

• Quality Control– Evaluation reports analyses

– Continuous improvement

• Future perspectives– Use of FAIRMODE MQI/MQO

– Chemical evaluation• Model development

• Source apportionment

C A M S Q A / Q C f o r A Q A s s e s s m e n t

AtmosphereMonitoring

T H A N K Y O U F O R Y O U R A T T E N T I O N

A u g u s t i n . C o l e t t e @ i n e r i s . f r