S3. Definition of a strategy

1

S3.8 From scenarios to action

S0.1 Define the limits of the system

S1.2 Identify the forces of changeS1.3 Define the forces of changeS1.4 Measure their mutual influences S1.5 Unveiling the driving forces

S2.6 Define the states of the driving forcesS2.7 Build up scenarios

S0 – Defining the system

S1 – Identification of the forces shaping the future

S2 – Identification of plausible futures

S3 – Definition of a strategy

Detailed steps

2

Objective – use the outputs of the scenario building to design and implement actions at various levels

Method Locally: use the scenarios to identify required actions along pathways

leading to the desired futures and avoiding undesirable ones

Globally: consolidate the knowledge generated at local level and enable foresighted grassroots organizations to challenge more global debates on research and policy

Outputs Implementation of foresight-based local action plans

Pro-active foresighted local organisations

S3.8 From scenarios to action

3

Different approaches can be used alternatively or simultaneously to build action plans from scenarios

Publicize and foster debates on the scenarios beyond the group of experts, involving the actors identified in the definition of the system

“Back-casting”, working from the scenarios to the current situations to identify pathways and strategies

In both cases: engage resources into collective concrete actions linked to the results of the foresight work

Both approaches can be combined, adapted to each situation, no “blue print”

Locally: from scenarios to actions

4

Develop communication supports for the scenarios to reach a wide and diverse audience such as pictures, drawings, compelling narratives, audios and videos…

Organize collective debates and/or individual conversations

Record feedback and proposition of actions

Produce sets of coherent actions directly linked to the scenarios and the feedback obtained from a diversity of stakeholders

1. Publicize and foster debate

5

Why? Avoid keeping the results at the level of the participants Avoid the results to be captured by groups of interest Give a more societal dimension to the work done Move towards a pro-active process (shaping the future)

Two complementary ways

with the local population with organisations involved in local development

1. Publicize and foster debate

1. Publicize and foster debate

How?

By whom? The members of the expert group

With whom? Citizens living in the territory

How many? More than 100

How? Individualy, in groups; open discussions on the resultsand opinions/preferences of every one

7

Example

8

The role and and place of agriculture and the rural world in Mayotte by 2020

9

F

Example

1010

The stories of the Future

Memorandum for public action

Example

Avoid undesirable scenarios Avoid imposing an inappropriate control system

discouraging any initiative in agricultural production Avoid giving unclear orientations and letting numerous

poles of decision decide in non coordinated ways Apply the social and environmental rules and norms

A critical point: the will to adjust the legal frame in order to avoid i) a technocratic authority based on inappropriate norms and standards and ii) an opportunistic behavior of inaction from decision makers

11

Example

Move towards desirables scenarios Invest in actions reconciling local capacities and external

knowledge and know-hows to help local actors to engage in commercial agriculture and in a rural world with diversified economic activities

Invest in identifying and promoting diversified production systems and multi-functional with self-consumption and commercial objectives

Two critical points : the development of knowledge allowing to propose compementary and viable models and support their implementation; the capacity to set legal frameworks allowing different production models to co’exist in complementary ways.

12

2. Backcasting

Drawing a backward track between futures and present

An alternative to traditional planning

Present Futures

13

How to do backcasting? Preliminary steps

A current situation that is clearly defined

A future situation that is clearly defined

Identify immediate actions needed just before the final situation is realised

Reiterate this process until reaching back the current situation

Future

Situation

Present

Situation14

How to do backcasting?

select a scenario as the starting point;

define outcomes that need to be achieved

identify main changes needed, obstacles and opportunities;

identify main actors and their roles;

discuss policy instruments and institutions needed to bring about the transition;

define a programme of action including immediate steps

Future

Situation

Present

Situation Outcome,

Change

Actors,

Instruments

. . . . . .

15

Scenario 1

Scenario 2

Scenario …Scenario n

State of Force 1

State of Force 2

State of Force 3

…

State of Force n

Presentsituation

Current state

Current state

Current state

Current state

Current state

2. Repeat for each other driving force

1. Do Backcasting to go from the future state of driving force 1 to its current state:What needs to be achieved along the way;What changes need to happen to achieve thatWho are the main actors and their roleWhat policy instruments and institutions are neededWhat are the immediate actions (next 5 years)

3. Determine the pathway to scenario1Compare results across driving forcesIntegrate the changes for all driving forces4. Repeat 1, 2, and 3 for each scenario

16

5. Determine the strategic elementsCompare results from each pathwayFind common actions across pathwaysIdentify actions in favour of desired scenarioIdentify actions against undesired scenarios

6. Design a programme of actionA chronology of changes neededThe main actors and their roleThe policy instruments and institutions neededA chronology of actions including immediate steps

Scenario 2

Scenario …Scenario n

4. Repeat 1, 2, and 3 for each scenario

17Support material: S3.8 Methodological Note