decision-making techniques

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Decision-Making Techniques. By: James Delk. What are Decision-Making Techniques(DMTs)?. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Decision-Making Techniques

Decision-Making TechniquesBy: James DelkWhat are Decision-Making Techniques(DMTs)?Decision making is the study of identifying and choosing alternatives based on the values and preferences of the decision maker. Making a decision implies that there are alternative choices to be considered, and in such a case we want not only to identify as many of these alternatives as possible but to choose the one that best fits with our goals, objectives, desires, values, and so on.. (Harris (1980))

Figure 1[1]What are DMTs cont.Decision making techniques fall into three major categories: random; intuition based; or analytical.[2]

RequirementsApples to oranges? Assigning values

Figure 2[3]DMT SetupDefine the problemDetermine requirementsEstablish goalsIdentify alternativesDefine criteriaSelect the method to be usedEvaluate against criteriaValidate against problem[4]Why use DMTsPhysical representation of optionsDouble check variablesFuture referencePresentationsStandard of measurementif you dont know where your going it doesnt matter which way you go(Lewis Carroll)

Figure 3[5]DMT Examplequestion/decision/option: pros (for - advantages)scorecons (against - disadvantages)score totalstotalsPros vs. Cons (weighted) Figure 5[6]DMT ExampleAnalytic Hierarchy Process

Figure 6[2]DMT ExampleSimple Decision Tree

Figure 7[2]the number of possible decision trees is exponential in the number of attributesDMT ExampleSimple Influence Diagram

Figure 8[2]DMT ExampleLinear Programming

Figure 9[7]Computer Science?AIDatabasesProgrammingSystem design Neural networks

Figure 10[8]Computer Science cont.System architecture

Figure 11[8]Game TheoryGame theory is "the study ofmathematical modelsof conflict and cooperation between intelligentrational decision-makers.[9]ABA1, 13, 3B0, 02, 2Zero-sum gain game theoryFigure 12[9]Multi Agent SystemsAmulti-agent system(MAS) is a system composed of multiple interactingintelligent agentswithin an environment.[10]Multi-agent systems are dependent upon a theoretical base that is provided through game theory.

Multi-agent systemFigure 13[10]MAS cont.Allowing multiple units to break down computations to the easiest level for completion by many different agents

Figure 14[11]Game theory sample code''' Approximate the strategy oddments for 2 person zero-sum games of perfect information. Applies the iterative solution method described by J.D. Williams in his classic book, The Compleat Strategyst, ISBN 0-486-25101-2. See chapter 5, page 180 for details. '' from operator import add, neg def solve(payoff_matrix, iterations=100): 'Return the oddments (mixed strategy ratios) for a given payoff matrix' transpose = zip(*payoff_matrix) numrows = len(payoff_matrix) numcols = len(transpose) row_cum_payoff = [0] * numrows col_cum_payoff = [0] * numcols colpos = range(numcols) rowpos = map(neg, xrange(numrows)) colcnt = [0] * numcols rowcnt = [0] * numrows active = 0 for i in xrange(iterations): rowcnt[active] += 1 col_cum_payoff = map(add, payoff_matrix[active], col_cum_payoff) active = min(zip(col_cum_payoff, colpos))[1] colcnt[active] += 1 row_cum_payoff = map(add, transpose[active], row_cum_payoff) active = -max(zip(row_cum_payoff, rowpos))[1] value_of_game = (max(row_cum_payoff) + min(col_cum_payoff)) / 2.0 / iterations return rowcnt, colcnt, value_of_gameFigure 15[12]O((m+n)*iterationsExample AI processIBMs Watson AIs decision processhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cU-AhmQ363I

Figure 16[13]References[1] hhttp://chamonixvue.wordpress.com/2012/02/06/decision-making/[2] http://www.decision-making-solutions.com/decision_making_techniques.html[3]http://blogs.helsinki.fi/dervin/2012/03/13/cfp-appels-and-oranges/[4] Flp, J.: Introduction to Decision Making Methods. Working Paper 05-6, Laboratory of Operations Research and Decision Systems, Computer and Automation Institute, Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Budapest, November 2005[5]http://djcase.com/case-in-point/ginny-wallace/structured-decision-making-common-sense-made-explicit[6] http://www.businessballs.com/problemsolving.htm[7]http://www.cs.duke.edu/courses/spring08/cps296.2/[8]http://www.ece.ubc.ca/sites/default/files/Falessi%202011%20CSUR.pdf[9] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Game_theory[10] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multi-agent_system[11]http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2012/02/superorganism-open-forum.html[12] http://code.activestate.com/recipes/496825-game-theory-payoff-matrix-solver/[13] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:DeepQA.svg