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  • Consumer Index Central and Eastern Europe

    Q1 2010

    Tel: +44 2089671655 [email protected] www.europanel.com

    © Europa nel GIE

    2010 pow

    ered by Gf

    K Pan el Serv

    ices an d Kantar

    Worldpanel

    Welcome to the Q1 2010 edition of Consumer Index. We hope you find it interesting. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you have any questions or comments.

  • © Europa nel GIE

    2010 pow

    ered by Gf

    K Pan el Serv

    ices an d Kantar

    Worldpanel

    © Europa nel GIE

    2010 pow

    ered by Gf

    K Pan el Serv

    ices an d Kantar

    Worldpanel

    Tel: +44 2089671655

    [email protected]

    www.europanel.com

    © Europa nel GIE

    2010 pow

    ered by Gf

    K Pan el Serv

    ices an d Kantar

    Worldpanel

    © Europa nel GIE

    2010 pow

    ered by Gf

    K Pan el Serv

    ices an d Kantar

    Worldpanel

    Consumer Index

    MAT Q1 10 vs. MAT Q1 09 Q1 10 vs. Q4 09

    Total FMCG Trends % value changes

    EU (27 countries)

    5

    0

    -5

    -10

    -15

    -20

    -25

    -30

    -35

    2.9 2.8

    13.6

    -5.5

    -1.7 -3.3

    UKRAINE

    4.2

    -8.7

    -0.6 -6.9

    -1.8 -12.8

    10.8

    -3.4

    -15.9 -10.4

    1.7

    -2.7

    10.9

    -3.8

    CZECH REPUBLIC

    CROATIA

    SERBIA BULGARIA

    ROMANIA

    RUSSIA

    SLOVAKIA

    POLAND

    BOSNIA & HERZEGOVINA

    Consumer Confidence

    Central and Eastern Europe

    Total Europe – Shopping Behaviour

    Trade Channel and Category Trends •Bosnia •Bulgaria •Croatia •Czech Republic •Poland •Romania •Russia •Serbia •Slovakia •Ukraine •Definitions •Sources and methodology

    p.2-3

    p.4 p.5 p.6 p.7 p.8 p.9 p.10 p.11 p.12 p.13 p.14 p.15

    Contents

  • © Europa nel GIE

    2010 pow

    ered by Gf

    K Pan el Serv

    ices an d Kantar

    Worldpanel

    © Europa nel GIE

    2010 pow

    ered by Gf

    K Pan el Serv

    ices an d Kantar

    Worldpanel

    Consumer Index

    © Europa nel GIE

    2010 pow

    ered by Gf

    K Pan el Serv

    ices an d Kantar

    Worldpanel

    © Europa nel GIE

    2010 pow

    ered by Gf

    K Pan el Serv

    ices an d Kantar

    Worldpanel

    Tel: +44 2089671655

    [email protected]

    www.europanel.com

    Overview of Trends

    Fresh Food

    Chilled Food

    Packaged Grocery

    Frozen Food

    Alcohol

    Soft Drinks

    Personal Care

    Home Care

    Pet Food

    Czech Republic Russia Slovakia

    FMCG Consumer Dashboard % Value Change Q1 2010 vs Q1 2009

    Bosnia & Herzegovina Bulgaria Poland RomaniaCroatia Serbia

    Increase of more than 0.5%

    Increase/decrease of 0.5% or less

    Decrease of more than 0.5%

    Category not covered

    Ukraine

    •FMCG value has increased in Q1 2010 across the majority of countries in the region (Czech, Poland, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Ukraine).   •Within the Czech Republic households are increasing in home consumption as a result of the economic situation in the country, with Fresh Foods, Alcohol and Pet Foods the fastest growing categories. Frozen Food and Personal Care are the only two categories to experience value decline.   •The impact of the early Easter can also be seen, affecting buying behaviour. In Poland, FMCG value increase is driven by an increase in purchases per household across all categories. In Russia the only category failing to note an increase in value terms was Soft Drinks, with Chilled, Frozen and Fresh foods all with strong performances in this period.   •In Serbia Household Care and Frozen Food both reported strong growth in a difficult economic context of high unemployment, frozen or reduced salaries and declining purchasing power. In Bulgaria a similar economic scenario has already led to FMCG decline. Home Care and Personal Care are both falling in value terms, despite an increase in volume, as households switch to cheaper products. Alcohol in Bulgaria has experienced growth in both volume and value whilst Soft Drinks have declined!   •Private Label continues to grow across the region. In Poland value share of private label now exceeds 20%.

    Richard Herbert Europanel Global Business Development and Insight Director

  • © Europa nel GIE

    2010 pow

    ered by Gf

    K Pan el Serv

    ices an d Kantar

    Worldpanel

    © Europa nel GIE

    2010 pow

    ered by Gf

    K Pan el Serv

    ices an d Kantar

    Worldpanel

    Tel: +44 2089671655

    [email protected]

    www.europanel.com

    © Europa nel GIE

    2010 pow

    ered by Gf

    K Pan el Serv

    ices an d Kantar

    Worldpanel

    © Europa nel GIE

    2010 pow

    ered by Gf

    K Pan el Serv

    ices an d Kantar

    Worldpanel

    Consumer Index

    Bosnia Q1 2010

    Hypermarkets

    Supermarkets

    Other

    GDP (Value) 1.6%

    Rate of Food In�ation (Value) NA

    NA

    -5.5%

    +4.0%

    Rate of Unemployment

    Average FMCG Basket Size (Value)

    Frequency of FMCG Purchase

    Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010

    Bosnia – Trade Channels

    Bosnia – Trade Channels

    FMCG Value Share

    Year-on-Year % Change (Value)

    Total FMCG

    Hypermarkets

    Supermarkets

    Other

    Home Care

    Q1 2010 Key Indicators Year-on-Year % Change

    Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010

    Bosnia – Category Trends Year-on-Year % Change (Value)

    MAT Q1 2007 MAT Q1 2008 MAT Q1 2009 MAT Q1 2010

    Total FMCG

    Chilled Foods

    Packaged Grocery

    Alcohol

    Soft Drinks

    Personal Care

    2.2

    16.4

    0.0

    -7.1

    5.0

    2.6

    -5.5

    -5.0

    -1.4

    -7.8

    -4.7

    -6.2

    1.3

    -1.5

    -1.7

    3.4

    -3.3

    -1.8

    -9.3

    11.8

    -2.7

    -0.7

    9.9

    0.1

    -1.2

    -1.9

    -15.1

    -1.7

    -0.7

    10.8

    5.8

    -7.0

    -1.7

    17.9

    -2.2

    -5.0

    3.5

    -3.5

    -8.6 -8.5

    22.6

    15.0

    62.4

    24.7

    16.8

    58.5

    25.5

    18.5

    56.1

    26.4

    20.6

    53.0

    •Total FMCG continued its decline compared with last year as well as the previous quarter.

    •Only Chilled Foods and Personal Care categories experienced growth this quarter compared with the same period last year. Deodorants and Facial Care are driving the growth in the Personal Care category. In the Chilled Foods category the growth was driven by Mayonnaise, Yoghurt and Milk Desserts.

    •Hypermarkets continue to experience growth in each period, the last quarter experienced the largest growth.

    •Supermarkets marginally increased their share when versus the last quarter but declined when compared with the same period last year.

    •Traditional stores continue to underperform, leading to a decrease in market share.

    Please note: - Category, channel data and Average Basket size data are based on local currency - GDP and inflation rates are based on Euro currency

  • © Europa nel GIE

    2010 pow

    ered by Gf

    K Pan el Serv

    ices an d Kantar

    Worldpanel

    © Europa nel GIE

    2010 pow

    ered by Gf

    K Pan el Serv

    ices an d Kantar

    Worldpanel

    Consumer Index

    © Europa nel GIE

    2010 pow

    ered by Gf

    K Pan el Serv

    ices an d Kantar

    Worldpanel

    © Europa nel GIE

    2010 pow

    ered by Gf

    K Pan el Serv

    ices an d Kantar

    Worldpanel

    Tel: +44 2089671655

    [email protected]

    www.europanel.com

    GDP (Value) -3.6%

    Rate of Food In�ation (Value) -2.9%

    +53.0%

    -0.4%

    -1.2%

    Rate of Unemployment

    Average FMCG Basket Size (Value)

    Frequency of FMCG Purchase

    Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010

    Bulgaria – Trade Channels

    Bulgaria – Trade Channels

    FMCG Value Share

    Year-on-Year % Change (Value)

    Other

    Supermarkets & Hypermarkets

    Discounters

    Cash & Carry

    Small Grocery Shops

    Street Vendors + open markets

    Other

    Home Care

    Q1 2010 Key Indicators Year-on-Year % Change

    Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010

    Bulgaria – Category Trends Year-on-Year % Change (Value)

    +7.2%

    MAT Q1 2007 MAT Q1 2008 MAT Q1 2009 MAT Q1 2010

    2.1

    6.2

    -0.1

    1.7

    0.7

    2.8

    3.4

    -7.1

    -0.6

    6.5

    -3.7

    -4.5

    1.6

    4.9

    -7.0

    -0.6

    1.0

    -0.3

    9.4

    -2.2

    -1.2

    -1.1

    1.6

    -3.3

    4.9

    -3.5

    -2.3

    6.2

    +3.1% -2.9%-2.0% -4.2%

    Total FMCG

    Food Price Index

    Chilled Foods

    Packaged Grocery

    Alcohol

    Soft Drinks

    Personal Care

    Total FMCG

    Supermarkets & Hypermarkets