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Consumer Index Central and Eastern Europe

Q1 2010

Tel: +44 2089671655 [email protected] www.europanel.com

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Welcome to the Q1 2010 edition of Consumer Index. We hope you find it interesting. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you have any questions or comments.

© Europa nel GIE

2010 pow

ered by Gf

K Pan el Serv

ices an d Kantar

Worldpanel

© Europa nel GIE

2010 pow

ered by Gf

K Pan el Serv

ices an d Kantar

Worldpanel

Tel: +44 2089671655

[email protected]

www.europanel.com

© Europa nel GIE

2010 pow

ered by Gf

K Pan el Serv

ices an d Kantar

Worldpanel

© Europa nel GIE

2010 pow

ered by Gf

K Pan el Serv

ices an d Kantar

Worldpanel

Consumer Index

MAT Q1 10 vs. MAT Q1 09 Q1 10 vs. Q4 09

Total FMCG Trends % value changes

EU (27 countries)

5

0

-5

-10

-15

-20

-25

-30

-35

2.9 2.8

13.6

-5.5

-1.7 -3.3

UKRAINE

4.2

-8.7

-0.6 -6.9

-1.8 -12.8

10.8

-3.4

-15.9 -10.4

1.7

-2.7

10.9

-3.8

CZECH REPUBLIC

CROATIA

SERBIA BULGARIA

ROMANIA

RUSSIA

SLOVAKIA

POLAND

BOSNIA & HERZEGOVINA

Consumer Confidence

Central and Eastern Europe

Total Europe – Shopping Behaviour

Trade Channel and Category Trends •Bosnia •Bulgaria •Croatia •Czech Republic •Poland •Romania •Russia •Serbia •Slovakia •Ukraine •Definitions •Sources and methodology

p.2-3

p.4 p.5 p.6 p.7 p.8 p.9 p.10 p.11 p.12 p.13 p.14 p.15

Contents

© Europa nel GIE

2010 pow

ered by Gf

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ices an d Kantar

Worldpanel

© Europa nel GIE

2010 pow

ered by Gf

K Pan el Serv

ices an d Kantar

Worldpanel

Consumer Index

© Europa nel GIE

2010 pow

ered by Gf

K Pan el Serv

ices an d Kantar

Worldpanel

© Europa nel GIE

2010 pow

ered by Gf

K Pan el Serv

ices an d Kantar

Worldpanel

Tel: +44 2089671655

[email protected]

www.europanel.com

Overview of Trends

Fresh Food

Chilled Food

Packaged Grocery

Frozen Food

Alcohol

Soft Drinks

Personal Care

Home Care

Pet Food

Czech Republic Russia Slovakia

FMCG Consumer Dashboard % Value Change Q1 2010 vs Q1 2009

Bosnia & Herzegovina Bulgaria Poland RomaniaCroatia Serbia

Increase of more than 0.5%

Increase/decrease of 0.5% or less

Decrease of more than 0.5%

Category not covered

Ukraine

•FMCG value has increased in Q1 2010 across the majority of countries in the region (Czech, Poland, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Ukraine).   •Within the Czech Republic households are increasing in home consumption as a result of the economic situation in the country, with Fresh Foods, Alcohol and Pet Foods the fastest growing categories. Frozen Food and Personal Care are the only two categories to experience value decline.   •The impact of the early Easter can also be seen, affecting buying behaviour. In Poland, FMCG value increase is driven by an increase in purchases per household across all categories. In Russia the only category failing to note an increase in value terms was Soft Drinks, with Chilled, Frozen and Fresh foods all with strong performances in this period.   •In Serbia Household Care and Frozen Food both reported strong growth in a difficult economic context of high unemployment, frozen or reduced salaries and declining purchasing power. In Bulgaria a similar economic scenario has already led to FMCG decline. Home Care and Personal Care are both falling in value terms, despite an increase in volume, as households switch to cheaper products. Alcohol in Bulgaria has experienced growth in both volume and value whilst Soft Drinks have declined!   •Private Label continues to grow across the region. In Poland value share of private label now exceeds 20%.

Richard Herbert Europanel Global Business Development and Insight Director

© Europa nel GIE

2010 pow

ered by Gf

K Pan el Serv

ices an d Kantar

Worldpanel

© Europa nel GIE

2010 pow

ered by Gf

K Pan el Serv

ices an d Kantar

Worldpanel

Tel: +44 2089671655

[email protected]

www.europanel.com

© Europa nel GIE

2010 pow

ered by Gf

K Pan el Serv

ices an d Kantar

Worldpanel

© Europa nel GIE

2010 pow

ered by Gf

K Pan el Serv

ices an d Kantar

Worldpanel

Consumer Index

Bosnia Q1 2010

Hypermarkets

Supermarkets

Other

GDP (Value) 1.6%

Rate of Food In�ation (Value) NA

NA

-5.5%

+4.0%

Rate of Unemployment

Average FMCG Basket Size (Value)

Frequency of FMCG Purchase

Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010

Bosnia – Trade Channels

Bosnia – Trade Channels

FMCG Value Share

Year-on-Year % Change (Value)

Total FMCG

Hypermarkets

Supermarkets

Other

Home Care

Q1 2010 Key Indicators Year-on-Year % Change

Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010

Bosnia – Category Trends Year-on-Year % Change (Value)

MAT Q1 2007 MAT Q1 2008 MAT Q1 2009 MAT Q1 2010

Total FMCG

Chilled Foods

Packaged Grocery

Alcohol

Soft Drinks

Personal Care

2.2

16.4

0.0

-7.1

5.0

2.6

-5.5

-5.0

-1.4

-7.8

-4.7

-6.2

1.3

-1.5

-1.7

3.4

-3.3

-1.8

-9.3

11.8

-2.7

-0.7

9.9

0.1

-1.2

-1.9

-15.1

-1.7

-0.7

10.8

5.8

-7.0

-1.7

17.9

-2.2

-5.0

3.5

-3.5

-8.6 -8.5

22.6

15.0

62.4

24.7

16.8

58.5

25.5

18.5

56.1

26.4

20.6

53.0

•Total FMCG continued its decline compared with last year as well as the previous quarter.

•Only Chilled Foods and Personal Care categories experienced growth this quarter compared with the same period last year. Deodorants and Facial Care are driving the growth in the Personal Care category. In the Chilled Foods category the growth was driven by Mayonnaise, Yoghurt and Milk Desserts.

•Hypermarkets continue to experience growth in each period, the last quarter experienced the largest growth.

•Supermarkets marginally increased their share when versus the last quarter but declined when compared with the same period last year.

•Traditional stores continue to underperform, leading to a decrease in market share.

Please note: - Category, channel data and Average Basket size data are based on local currency - GDP and inflation rates are based on Euro currency

© Europa nel GIE

2010 pow

ered by Gf

K Pan el Serv

ices an d Kantar

Worldpanel

© Europa nel GIE

2010 pow

ered by Gf

K Pan el Serv

ices an d Kantar

Worldpanel

Consumer Index

© Europa nel GIE

2010 pow

ered by Gf

K Pan el Serv

ices an d Kantar

Worldpanel

© Europa nel GIE

2010 pow

ered by Gf

K Pan el Serv

ices an d Kantar

Worldpanel

Tel: +44 2089671655

[email protected]

www.europanel.com

GDP (Value) -3.6%

Rate of Food In�ation (Value) -2.9%

+53.0%

-0.4%

-1.2%

Rate of Unemployment

Average FMCG Basket Size (Value)

Frequency of FMCG Purchase

Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010

Bulgaria – Trade Channels

Bulgaria – Trade Channels

FMCG Value Share

Year-on-Year % Change (Value)

Other

Supermarkets & Hypermarkets

Discounters

Cash & Carry

Small Grocery Shops

Street Vendors + open markets

Other

Home Care

Q1 2010 Key Indicators Year-on-Year % Change

Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010

Bulgaria – Category Trends Year-on-Year % Change (Value)

+7.2%

MAT Q1 2007 MAT Q1 2008 MAT Q1 2009 MAT Q1 2010

2.1

6.2

-0.1

1.7

0.7

2.8

3.4

-7.1

-0.6

6.5

-3.7

-4.5

1.6

4.9

-7.0

-0.6

1.0

-0.3

9.4

-2.2

-1.2

-1.1

1.6

-3.3

4.9

-3.5

-2.3

6.2

+3.1% -2.9%-2.0% -4.2%

Total FMCG

Food Price Index

Chilled Foods

Packaged Grocery

Alcohol

Soft Drinks

Personal Care

Total FMCG

Supermarkets & Hypermarkets