Conflict Dynamics

Trends, triggers and scenario planning• Conflict trends: the evolving nature of conflicts combined with

a variety of different conflict triggers require flexible responses by international actors. These trends include periodical events or precedents that recur in a cyclical way over a certain span of time. Trends are a critical element to consider when developing potential scenarios.

• Scenario planning: – On the basis of the analysis, development of scenarios (from the most

to the least likely) that reflect different possible conflict trends;– A way to locate and plan individual programmatic initiatives within a

more strategic framework of assistance;– Requires flexibility to adapt programmes.

Dividers and connectors• Dividers: processes, institutions that are not subject

to consensus in society. (e.g. clan structure and ethnicity, ideology, leadership feuds, religion, etc.) or might even actively contribute to reinforcing divisions within society.

• Connectors: Elements that connect people across subgroups (e.g. common concerns of youth, public spaces, markets, religion, etc.). Opportunities for positive change. ‘Champions’.

Dividers and connectors• When divisions are fueled or connectors are undermined,

societies can fragment and turn to violence.

• When connectors are reinforced and dividers are overcome, people find ways to live side-by-side, resolving divisions constructively.

• Determining which dividers and connectors have the most critical impact on the stability or fragmentation of a community is context specific.

• Inherent ambiguity: Religious leaders, elders, or common histories may be connectors in one society, while they may represent divisions in a different context.

Questions for group work

1. Based on your analysis and stakeholder mapping, develop the 3 scenarios that you think are the most likely in your country in the next year.

2. Based on your analysis and stakeholder mapping, identify at least two dividers and two connectors who is key to the (conflict) situation.

3. Reflect on the role of education – is it a divider or connector?