disasters as conflict triggers: a new framework for analysis in conflict-affected &...
TRANSCRIPT
D ISASTERS AS CONFLICT TRIGGERS:
A NEW FRAMEWORK FOR ANALYSIS IN
CONFLICT-AFFECTED & POST-CONFLICT STATES
OVERVIEW OF PRESENTATION
Discussion of literature on disasters and conflict link
Disaster Diplomacy & disasters in post-conflict settings
Overview of analytical framework
Case Study – 2005 Pakistan Earthquake
Next steps for research
Conclusion
INTRODUCTION
Little research on link between disasters and conflict
Literature in this field remains ambiguous
Some evidence linking rapid onset disasters to higher conflict risk
Little evidence to show that slow onset disasters affect conflict
DISASTER DIPLOMACY?
Almost no research on effects of disasters in post-conflict states
Some suggest “disaster diplomacy” effect
2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami in Aceh
1999 Earthquakes in Turkey, Greece
DISASTER DIPLOMACY?
Disaster diplomacy far from guaranteed
2004 Tsunami in Sri Lanka conflict
2001 Gujarat Earthquake in India
Given this fact:
What are pathways connecting disasters & conflict?
• Opportunity Pathway
• Regime Weakness Pathway
• Rebel Legitimacy Pathway
1.) Weak State Hypothesis
• Inequality Pathway
• Politicization of Response Pathway
• Conflict (In)sensitivity of Aid Pathway
2.) Disaster Politics
• Opportunity Costs Pathway
• Rebel Financing Pathway
3.) Disaster Economics
• Sons of the Soil Pathway
• Migration Disruption Pathway
• Migration as Organization Pathway
4.) Migration & Demographics
A NEW ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK
WEAK STATE HYPOTHESIS
Disasters may expose weak ruling governments to rebellion
Rebel Legitimacy Pathway
2004 Tsunami in LTTE-held areas
Map overlaying % of dead or missing from 2004 tsunami and LTTE-held areas in Sri Lanka
Le Billon & Waaizenegger(2007). “Peace in the wake of disaster? Secessionist conflicts and the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami.” pg, 416
DISASTER POLITICS
Disasters are not “natural” events - inherently political & socially constructed
Conflict (In)sensitivity of Aid Pathway
Aid disparities in Aceh after Tsunami
Destruction in Aceh, Indonesia after Indian Ocean Tsunami
Courtesy of National Geographic
DISASTER ECONOMICS
Disasters have economic costs, opportunities
Rebel Financing Pathway
Interahamwe extorted UN refugee aid after Rwandan genocide
Refugee camp for Hutus who fled into eastern DRC in 1994
MIGRATION & DEMOGRAPHICS
Disasters can lead to large-scale population movements, affect demographics
1. Sons of the Soil Pathway
2. Migration Disruption
3. Migration as Organization
DISPLACEMENT AFTER KATRINA
MIGRATION & DEMOGRAPHICS
Disasters can lead to large-scale population movements, affect demographics
Migration as Organization pathway
Burmese junta response to Cyclone Nargis
Cyclone Nargis affected areas
Courtesy of ReliefWeb
2005 PAKISTAN EARTHQUAKE
October 5, 2005: 7.6 magnitude earthquake
Affected 28,000km in Azad Jammu Kashmir & North West Frontier Province
Kills 73,338 people, seriously injures 73,000
2005 PAKISTAN EARTHQUAKE
Majority of damage done to housing, public buildings
Damage to schools killed 18,000 children
“the disaster that wiped out a generation of children” in Pakistan
Government completely unprepared for disaster of this magnitude
USING DISASTER-CONFLICT
FRAMEWORK FOR EARTHQUAKE
Earthquake response effort has clear conflict dynamics
Relevant pathways from framework:
Rebel Legitimacy
Conflict (In)sensitivity of Aid
Migration as Organization
REBEL LEGITIMACY
Pakistani government slow to respond
First step was reinforcing Line of Control
Militant organizations filled this gap
Saw response as opportunity to win hearts & minds
17 banned groups played role in response
Earthquake victims receive food from Jamaat-ud-Dawa, front group for Lashkar-e-Taiba
CONFLICT IN(SENSITIVITY) OF AID
Humanitarians used to working in weak states
Had little experience in Pakistan, did not understand political context
Organizations work directly with military regime, bypass civil society
DISASTER DIPLOMACY
Post-disaster changes largely path-dependent
Disasters can help catalyze existing diplomacy, cannot create it
Leaders must push diplomacy, but cannot get ahead of constituents
Non-disaster issues often dominate, undermine diplomacy potential
Need action by actors across scales on both sides of conflict
MIGRATION AS ORGANIZATION
Earthquake left 2.8 million Pakistanis homeless
Aid only provided to official IDP camps
Islamist groups took advantage of this decision
RESEARCH NEXT STEPS
Conducting surveys, interviews with practitioners and researchers
Demonstrate how conflict affected earthquake vulnerability in Pakistan
Trace connections between peacebuilding & disaster risk reduction (DRR)
Pressure and Release (PAR) Model of disasters, from Blaikie et al (1994)
CONCLUSION
Research on disasters & conflict ambiguous, doesn’t focus on post-conflict states
New framework traces 4 mechanisms, 11 possible pathways
Response to Pakistan Earthquake showed multiple pathways at work
Links between disasters & conflict suggests need to address both simultaneously
