Community Transitions and the Spatial Distribution of Crime

Anna Stewart, James Ogilvie and Troy Allard

Workshop presentation 11 July 20082

Background• Queensland fastest growing state in Australia

– Between 2001 and 2006 10% increase in population to just over 4 million people– Expected to double in next 40 years– Hospitals, water, roads and public transport– Increase in 25 to 30 year old couples

• Key growth factor is natural resources– Coal, gas, minerals (copper, lead, zinc, gold and silver), petroleum – China demand for commodities

• Government focus on infrastructure – 1.6 million dollars every hour spent on infrastructure

• Little or no focus of the impact of growth on crime

Workshop presentation 11 July 20083

Research Questions

• What is the impact of this growth on crime?

• Data– ABS 2001 and 2006 census data by SLA

– QPS 2001 and 2006 reported crime data by SLA

Workshop presentation 11 July 20084

Profile of the population growth• 2001 and 2006 ABS census data• Queensland divided into 479 Statistical Local Areas (SLA)• 2006 mean population 8,495 (SD = 8,495)

– Min population = 66– Max population = 72,683

• 2001 to 2006 mean population growth 822.77 (SD = 1,497.9)– Min growth = - 856– Max growth = 10,856 (increase of 69%)

Workshop presentation 11 July 20085

Workshop presentation 11 July 20086

Workshop presentation 11 July 20087

Workshop presentation 11 July 20088

Remoteness areas• Major Cities (N = 256)

– Highest population growth• Inner Regional (N = 60)

– Highest total population– High population growth

• Outer Regional (N = 77)• Remote (N = 28)• Very Remote (N = 57)

– No growth• Migratory (N = 2)

Workshop presentation 11 July 20089

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

Major City Area Inner RegionalAustralia

Outer RegionalAustralia

Remote Auatralia Very RemoteAustralia

2001

2006

Workshop presentation 11 July 200810

Change in population heterogeneity by SLA• Percentage of population between 10-19

– Decrease, 14% to 13.4%, range 0 - 27%

• Percentage of population Indigenous

– Increase, 8.9% to 9.3%, range 0 – 97%

• Percentage of population born overseas

– Increase 15.5% to 16%, range 0 – 52%

• Short term Residential Stability:

– Prop of families with different residential address one year ago

– Increase in stability 26.4% to 23%, range 06 to 58%

• Long term residential stability

– Prop of families with different residential address five years ago

– Increase in stability drop from 54% to 51%, range 12% to 94%

Workshop presentation 11 July 200811

Social and economic change• Proportion of households in poverty

– No change, mean 22%, range 3% to 65%• Proportion of households with a single parent

– No change, mean 17% ,range 0 to 56%• Proportion public housing

– Significant increase, 3% to 4%, range 0 to 90• Proportion unemployed

– Significant drop, 7.5% to 4.5%, range 0 to 15% • Proportion buying/owning own home

– Significant drop, 59% to 58%, range 0 to 92%• Median family income per week

– Significant increase $921 to $1212, range $445 to $2512

Workshop presentation 11 July 200812

Police offending data

• QPS data for reported offences by SLA

– 2006 total of 420,454 reported offences • personal (8%), • property (54%) • other (38%)

• Between 2001 and 2006, overall 6% drop in reported offences

Workshop presentation 11 July 200813

Crime by SLA• Personal crime

– No change between 2001 and 2006– Average rate 1.2 offences per 100 population– Maximum 17.3 offences per 100 population

• Property crime– Decrease between 2001 and 2006– 9.3 offences per 100 population to 6.5 offences per 100 population

• Other crime– Increase between 2001 and 2006– 3.6 offences per 100 population to 5.0 offences per 100 population

Workshop presentation 11 July 200814

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Major CityArea

Inner RegionalAustralia

Outer RegionalAustralia

RemoteAuatralia

Very RemoteAustralia

rate

per

100 personal

property

other

Workshop presentation 11 July 200815

Workshop presentation 11 July 200816

Workshop presentation 11 July 200817

Research Questions• What is the impact of this growth on crime?• How do crime increasing areas differ from crime

decreasing areas?– Population growth and stability

• Total population 01 and 06• One year stability 01 and 06

– Housing affordability• Prop in poverty 01 and 06• Prop owning/buying 01 and 06• Prop public housing 01 and 06

Workshop presentation 11 July 200818

Crime category• Crime category SLAs for personal and property crime

– Crime increasing SLA• Property crime - 8.8%• Personal crime – 12.4%

– Crime decreasing SLA• Property crime – 56.6%• Personal crime – 14.9%

– High crime stable SLA• Property crime – 8.8%• Personal crime - 10.1%

– Low crime stable SLA• Property crime – 27.7%• Personal crime – 62.7%

Workshop presentation 11 July 200819

Property crime

• Interaction effect time*crime category– Poverty

– Own/buy home

• Main effect– Population

– Stability

Workshop presentation 11 July 200820

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

poverty 2001 poverty 2006

high crime

decreasing crime

increasing crime

stable low crime

Workshop presentation 11 July 200821

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

Own/buy 2001 Own/buy 2006

high crime

decreasing crime

increasing crime

stable low crime

Workshop presentation 11 July 200822

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

high crime decreasing crime increasing crime stable low crime

mar

gina

l mea

n po

pula

tion

Workshop presentation 11 July 200823

0.21

0.22

0.23

0.24

0.25

0.26

0.27

0.28

high crime decreasing crime increasing crime stable low crime

pro

po

rtio

n d

iffe

ren

t ad

dre

ss 1

year

ag

o

Workshop presentation 11 July 200824

Personal crime

• Significant interaction effect– Poverty– Public housing– Population– Stability

• Main effect– own

Workshop presentation 11 July 200825

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

Poverty 2001 Poverty 2006

high crime

decreasing crime

increasing crime

stable low crime

Workshop presentation 11 July 200826

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

2001 2006

prop

ortio

n in

pub

lic h

ousi

ng

high crime

decreasing crime

increasing crime

stable low crime

Workshop presentation 11 July 200827

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

2001 2006

Mea

n po

pula

tion high crime

decreasing crime

increasing crime

stable low crime

Workshop presentation 11 July 200828

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

2001 2006

prop

ortio

n di

ffere

nt a

ddre

ss 1

yea

r ago

high crime

decreasing crime

increasing crime

stable low crime

Workshop presentation 11 July 200829

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

high crime decreasing crime increasing crime stable low crime

marg

inal

mean

pro

p o

wn

/bu

yin

g

Workshop presentation 11 July 200830

What does it all mean?

• Place is important• Complex interactions among variables• Factors that drive personal crime not necessarily

the same as property crime

• I should not put up an abstract before I have done the analyses