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Wildfire,

Creating a Policy-Window

A.van Gulik

M.Mulder

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Contents

Introduction

National Safety Strategy

Risk-assesment

Regional Risk-mapping

Modelling the Risk

Procesmanagement in

modelling the scenario

Next Steps

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Introduction

Risk-societyRM

RP

80 20

20 80

Response Capacity

Riskanalysis

Activity

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Riskmanagement

Analyse risks in order to make credible

scenarios and recommend effective steps

to balance Probability, Impact and

Response.

Ad the same time create awareness about

the rest-impact of risks in society

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National Safety Strategy (2006)

Risk = Probability x Impact

Riskmapping

All Hazard Approach,

Inventarisation, analysis, scenariobuilding

Capacity-planning, All through Safety-Chain

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Impact

Probability

WPF

normal

structure-fire

Large

Railaccident

BLEVE

Blackout C.I.

Wildfire ?

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Our Partners

Fire Brigades

Landowners

Land-users

Local communities

Several ministeries Provinces

Terrain-managers

Recreational sector

Police, Ambulance-sector ..

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The Scenario

Uncontrollable Wildfire

Hoogspanning

Vitens

Verzorgings

tehuis

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Probability

Fire-triangle

Fault tree analysis

Include means of

response

UncontrollableWildfire

Fuel FDI Ignition

Delayed

Response

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Urban Rural Interface

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Response Failure

Bestrijdingstactiek/techniek

Onvoldoende (p=0,35)

Bluswater niet aanwezig bij brongebied

(p=0,5)WTS functioneert niet

Onvoldoende Bluswater

Munitie/explosieven aanw.

(p=0,05)

Terrein niet berijdbaar

(p=0,25)

Wegwerkzaamheden (p=0,01)

Tegenstroomse evacuatie (p=0,05)

Toegang onvoldoende (p=0,5)

Ontoegankelijk terrein

Moeilijke Bereikbaarheid

Late ontdekking (p=0,5)

Late reactietijd (p=0,1)

Niet bereiken RAC (p=0,01)

RAC onbekwaam (p=0,19)

Technische Fout (p=0,02)

Menselijke Fout (p=0,2)

Onv. OpleidingOnv. Ervaring

Onv. Overzicht/inzicht incident

Late Alarmering

Foute Alarmering

Foute beslissing (H)OVD (p=0,35)

Late Opschaling

Not enough engines in time (p=0,5)

3e Orde2e Orde1e Orde

Wrong decision CoS

P = 0,35

Wrong tactics/technics

P = 0,35

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P = 4% annual

P = 54% in dry period

P = 41% with maximised

response capacity

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P = 96% !!

P = 50%

P = 40%

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Impact

Multiple use of space

No clear responsability

Californie/Portugal/Greece

Small Fire, Large Impact

Fast large-scale evacuation

No means of specialised capacity, no accurate

respons

Schiphol

Volendam

Enschede

Hotel Polen

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Next

Wildfire is a specialism

Capacity analysis

Expertise centre

Study of Impact

Get the partners to work

Political decision making