Community Modeling DiscussionGrand Ballroom 5:00 – 6:30 Today

Summer Workshop – June 22, 2008Sunday after CEDAR and before GEM/Shine in Zermatt, Utah

What is our vision for a community space weather modeling program?

Contact organizing committee: Tim Fuller-Rowell, Joe Huba, Jon Linker, Terry Onsager, Aaron Ridley, Chris Russell, Mike Wiltberger

The space weather community has been asked by NSF to discuss and make recommendation on a possible future community modeling program.

Space Weather Prediction – Highest Priority Needs

• Customer Requirements

• Major Space Weather Product Categories

• High Priority Need: One-Day Advanced Prediction

• Goal for Today’s Session and Follow-on Activities

W. Murtagh and T. Onsager NOAA SWPC

Focus of this session: One-day advanced prediction

© ISO New England Inc. 2003

Procedure: Implement Solar Magnetic Disturbance Remedial Action

Process Name: Implement Emergency Operations

Procedure Number: RTMKTS.0120.0050

Revision Number: 6

Procedure Owner: Steve Weaver

Effective Date: March 29, 2005

  Approved By: VP Operations Review Due Date: January 1, 2006

    1. Discontinue maintenance work and restore out of service high voltage transmission lines. Avoid taking long lines out of service.        2. Maintain system voltages within acceptable operating range to protect against voltage swings.

   3. Review the availability of the Chester SVC and Orrington capacitor banks to respond to voltage deterioration if necessary.        4. Adjust the loading on Phase 1 or Phase II, the Cross Sound Cable and Highgate HVdc ties to be within the 40% to 90% range of nominal rating of each pole.

   5. Reduce the loading…

Station 3 Gen Transformer 4, GIC damage – ESKOM, Oct 2003

RequirementsElectric Utilities

User Requirement Timeliness Customer Rationale

ELECTRIC UTILITIES

K-7 Geomagnetic Storm Warnings

Minutes to hoursOperators want as much lead time as possible, but any lead time is considered useful

North America Electricity Reliability Corp. (NERC)

Midwest Independent System Operator(MISO)

If the index is K-7 or higher, MISO notifies all NERC reliability coordinators concerning the level and expected duration of the event. These forecasts are shared with all power system groups in North America so those power systems that are particularly susceptible to GIC can institute preventive procedures

Geomagnetic Storm Warnings/Watches

1-2 days >50% accuracy

Various Power Companies

Allows maintenance procedures that shut down some facilities to be rescheduled, thus maintaining the full reserve for emergency situations.

Geomagnetic Storm Warnings (K-5 through K-9)

2-3 hours>80% accuracy

Various Power Companies

Bring reserve or maintenance generation on line

Geomagnetic Storm Warnings (K-5 through K-9)

15-30 minutes >90% accuracy

Various Power Companies

Reduce loading: use more conservative margins

Communications

• SatCom and VHF communications are limited over the Pole – HF becomes primary

• Federal Aviation Regulation (FAR 121-99) –requires continuous communications

• Geomagnetic storms and solar radiation storms can result in prolonged periods (days) of degraded HF communications

HF Communication only

Requirements

Aviation

Radiation Exposure

• A big concern for many

• Airlines have introduced restrictions on polar route due to this increased radiation

• FAA have issued “advisory” (no mandates)

AVIATION

User Requirement Timeliness Customer Rationale

Forecasts (text or graphics) of radiation storms at energy levels that could create a radiation hazard for aircrew and passengers

6, 12, and 18 hours

Airlines Forecasts need to be early enough to plan a crew change (for a stop in route) and/or flight-plan. 18 hours is best but a lesser lead time will still aid in the decision making

Nowcasts (text or graphic) of radiation storms at energy levels that could create a radiation hazard for aircrew and passengers

Near real-time(<30 minutes)

Airlines Will enable mitigation procedures to reduce dose during extreme radiation storms

Graphical forecast product to include intensity, onset and duration, and boundary of degraded communicated areas for Polar routes

12 to 24-hoursUpdated every 6

hours

FAANavCanada(Air Traffic Control)Airlines

Accurate predictions will help with route selection and management, emergency response, and other critical decision making processes at the control centers

• Deep-sea drilling operations

• Surveying companies - land surveying, topographic work, etc.

• FAA navigation systems

• Various DoD operations - Aircraft operations, weapon systems

Precision Farming - Pinpoint locations where changes in watering, fertilization or weed control are necessary

• Fastest growing customer base• Many “unsophisticated” users• Currently rely heavily on geomagnetic K-index• >K5 is level of concern• Graphical products being introduced

Requirements

GPS

Space Weather is single biggest source of error!

Forecasts of ionospherictotal electron content

>1 hour GNSS location systemsRadar systems. (civil and military)Drilling operations SurveyingNavigation systems

Accurate predictions of a disturbed ionosphere will ensure GNSS systems users postpone or modify operations dependant on precision measurements

Geomagnetic Kp and Ap Forecasts

Hours to days Surveying Used for planning and scheduling work.If activity is expected they consider rescheduling the survey so as to avoid erroneous survey results

GNSS and NAVIGATIONAL APPLICATIONS

User Requirement Timeliness Customer Rationale

• High-energy electrons cause satellite charging Orbit maintenance using electric propulsion

must be planned and executed with knowledge of this charging

LM A2100 GEO Communications Satellite

Requirements

Spacecraft Operations

• Satellite launch vehicles have a launch red line condition of 100 pfu at > 50 MeV

• Operations Centers put spacecraft or instruments in safe mode, or will curtail operations and limit station-keeping maneuvers

Proton and geomagnetic storm requirements vary by customer

SATELLITE OPERATIONS

User Requirement Timeliness Customer Rationale

Forecasts of hazardousenvironments affecting operational satellite systems. Energetic particle events and geomagnetic storm conditions of varying intensities

>1-2 days Satellite operators (civil and military)

Enables preventative measures to be accomplished and recovery procedures prepared. Spacecraft vulnerabilities vary.

• F10• Kp and Ap indices• Forecasts and

observations

Current valuesDaily forecasts3-day forecasts27-day

forecasts

NASA Essential in meeting the orbit determination accuracy requirements for NASA missions, where they routinely determine the orbit to within 20 meters. Predicted values allow for accurate orbit predictions that are required for mission planning and scheduling.

Prediction and specification of >50 MeV protons

Two days before launch to four minutes before launch.

Satellite launch companies

Launch teams cause single-word multiple upsets in the rocket control circuitry during launch. They monitor the proton flux closely and hold launch if >100 PFU at > 50 MeV. Warnings of severe events more than 1 day ahead allow for a planned launch delay.

Reliable forecasts of no solar activity of interest—i.e.,all-clear forecasts.95% AccuracyAvoid 95% of SPEs

3 – 7 Day •NASA•International space agencies•Commercial space providers

Higher confidence in exposure forecastGreater EVA scheduling flexibilityGreater mission schedule assurance

An all-clear forecast following a major SEP event or geomagnetic storm so that normal operations can be resumed.(Reliability TBD)

As Needed •NASA•International space agencies•Commercial space providers

Higher confidence in exposure forecastGreater EVA scheduling flexibilityGreater mission schedule assurance

NASA and DEEP SPACE OPERATIONS

Onset time for a SEP event30 MeV up to 100-200 MeV

10 to 12 hour forecast prior to a likely event

•NASA•International space agencies•Commercial space providers

Higher confidence in exposure forecastGreater mission schedule assurance

Space Weather Product Categories

• Long lead-time forecasts (1 to > 3 days)• Short-term warnings (notice of imminent storm)• Alerts and Specifications (current conditions)

• X-ray flares• Solar energetic particle events• Geomagnetic storms• Ionospheric disturbances• Radiation belt enhancements• Neutral density disturbances

Current Capabilities

What Progress Has Occurred in One-Day Prediction of:

• Solar Flares X-ray Flux

• Solar Energetic Proton Flux

• Geomagnetic Activity

• Radiation Belt Flux

• Ionospheric/Neutral Atmosphere Disturbances

- How good are we?

- What are the most important next steps?

- How will we measure our progress?

Questions?

What should our next steps be?

• Provide metrics of current capabilities (SWPC)

• Select one specific area for model comparison

- Flare and CME eruption time and magnitude

- Solar proton event onset time and magnitude

- CME arrival time and storm strength

- Radiation belt electron level

- Ionospheric storm onset and magnitude

• Organize model comparison

• Publish and present results

• Consider transition to operational product