UK Nuclear Market – An overviewDavid StellfoxEuropean Editor Platts Nuclear Publications+34 672 215 068 (mobile)+44 20 7176 6676 (office)david_stellfox@platts.com 

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The UK Energy Supply Status Quo

• Under central assumptions there will be a need for approximately 60 GW of net new capacity by 2025

• Of this 60 GW as much as 35 GW could come from renewables with 25 GW from other conventional generation capacity

• The Government expects that under this approach a significant proportion of the 25 GW will in practice be filled by nuclear power

• 25 GW is equivalent to about 16 of the largest reactors available on the market!

• Source: Draft Nuclear National Policy Statement http://data.energynpsconsultation.decc.gov.uk/documents/npss/EN-6.pdf

UK Nuclear Status Quo

• NUCLEAR CURRENTLY SUPPLIES ABOUT 14% OF UK ELECTRICITY

• British Energy (EDF owned)– 14 Advanced Gas-Cooled reactors– 1 Pressurised Water Reactor at Sizewell B

– These will start closing in 2014, with all except Sizewell B currently scheduled to be retired by 2023.

– Four Magnox Reactors – two each at Wylfa and Oldbury --owned by the UK Nuclear Decommissioning Authority and operated by Magnox North, which in turn are owned by US-based EnergySolutons

– All four will close within the next couple of years

Nuclear Companies to watch

• Utilities - 16,200 MW of new reactors planned

• NNB Genco: EDF Energy (80%) and Centrica (20%)– Plans to build four, 1,650-MW Areva EPR reactors

• Horizon Nuclear Power: E.On UK and RWE npower (50-50)– Plans to build up to 6,000 MW (roughly 4 to 6 reactors)

• Iberdrola (37.5%), GDF Suez (37.5%) & Scottish and Southern Energy (25%) (Unnamed consortium)– Plans to build up to 3,600 MW

Nuclear Companies to watch

• Reactor vendors:

• Areva – 1,650-MW EPR– Under construction in Finland and France

• Westinghouse (Toshiba) – 1,100-MW AP1000– Under construction in China; ordered in US

• GE Hitachi -- ESBWR

Nuclear Companies to watch

• AMEC • ARUP • Atkins • Babcock• Balfour Beatty• Bam Nuttall• Bechtel• Carillion• CH2M Hill • Costain• Doosan Babcock• EnergySolutions• Fluor Corp.

• Jacobs Ltd.• Kier Construction• Laing O'Rourke• Lloyd's Register• Mace Group Ltd.• Morgan Sindall• Mott McDonald• Rolls Royce• Serco• Sir Robert McAlpine• Thompson Valves• URS• Shaw Group

The Costs

• Olkiluoto-3, an Areva EPR being built in Finand– Built by Areva and Siemens on a turnkey contract worth €3.2

billion which under the contract was to be operating at the end of 2009. Currently at least 50% over budget (Areva has made provisions for €2.6 billion in losses, but hopes to recoup some in lawsuits) and four years behind scheduled start-up.

Flamanville-3, an Areva EPR being built in France

-- Being built by EDF; Cost has risen from €3.3 billion in 2005 to €5 billion currently (and counting?). Project is about three years behind schedule for operation.

The costs (continued)

• 2 AP1000 reactors to be built in Georgia (US); cost estimated at $14 billion

• 2 GE ABWR reactors planned at the South Texas Project; cost estimated at $13 billion

• EDF/Constellation Energy EPR reactor planned; cost estimated at more than $10 billion.