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Financial Modeling 1 TỐI ƯU HÓA PHI TUYẾN CHƯƠNG 3

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  • TI U HA PHI TUYNCHNG 3

  • 3.1 GiI THIU M HNH PHI TUYNTrn thc t c nhiu vn trong kinh t v trong cc hot ng kinh doanh c nhng mi lin h vi nhau khng phi l mi quan h tuyn tnh m l phi tuyn. S tn ti cc mi quan h khng theo t l ( doanh s t c khng theo t l vi gi bn v gi bn c th tng v doanh s c th gim.S tn ti cc mi quan h khng mang tnh cng b sung (ri ro ca danh mc s khc vi bnh qun gia quyn ca 2 chng khon trong danh mc ny.S hiu qu v khng hiu qu theo quy m (khi sn lng tiu th vt qu mt mc gii hn no th tng nh ph v bin ph n v s thay i)

  • 3.2 TI U HA PHI TUYN QUA THTrong phng php The hillclimbing m Solver p dng cho bi ton tm gi tr cc i, mt im dng u tin s c chn, sau hng th tng dn c thc hin bng cch phng chng cc mc thay i ban u dc theo ng gi tr ti u (Optimal Value OV) tng dn, ti im cao nht c th t c ca ng ny. Phng php ny s kt thc khi cc mc thay i phng chng theo tt c cc hng (o hm ring cp 1) tin dn v 0 (iu kin th nht c tha mn). Nhng im ny khi s lun l im cc tr a phng hoc im ti u a phng. Nhng im ti u khc c tip tc tm kim bng cch khi ng li chng trnh ti u ha, bt u ti mt im khi s khc cho gi tr ban u cc bin s ca m hnh.

  • 3.2 TI U HA PHI TUYN QUA THV d bi ton ti u ho phi tuyn c th hin qua th:Hm mc tiu Max x1 x2 > Maxiu kin rng buc: x12 + x2 1x1 + x2 3x1 + x2 2x1 0, x2 0

  • 3.2 TI U HA PHI TUYN QUA TH

  • 3.2 TI U HA PHI TUYN QUA TH

    Gii php ti u ca m hnh phi tuyn khng phi lun lun ti gc nh ca m hnh tuyn tnh

  • 3.2 TI U HA PHI TUYN QUA THS so snh gia LP v NLPC mt vi im tng ng gia LP v NLP. V d:Mt s gia tng (hay gim) RHS ca bt phng trnh rng buc () s ni lng iu kin rng buc. iu ny khng lm co li v c th m rng vng kh thi. Vic ni lng iu kin rng buc khng lm tn hi v c th gip gia tng gi tr mc tiu ti u.Vic tht cht iu kin rng buc khng gip ch v c th gy tn hi gi tr mc tiu ti u.

  • 3.2 TI U HA PHI TUYN QUA THGi tr ti u a phng (cc tr a phng) so vi gi tr ti u ton cc (cc tr ton cc) Trong m hnh LP cc tr a phng cng l cc tr ton ccTrong m hnh NLP c th va c cc tr a phng v va c ca tr ton cc. Gi tr cc i ton cc l im cc i theo rng buc ton cc bi v gi tr ca hm mc tiu ti im ny l ln nht so vi tt c cc im kh thi khc. Trong m hnh NLP tm ra cc tr ton cc t cc cc tr a phng cn phi b sung cc iu kin cc iu kin li v iu kin lm. Nhng iu kin ny phi c tha mn m bo rng gi tr ti u ha a phng cng s l gi tr ti u ha ton cc.

  • 3.2 TI U HA PHI TUYN QUA TH

  • 3.3 S DNG SOLVER CHO M HNH PHI TUYN

    Trong m hnh LP, Solver s dng phng php di chuyn t gc ny sang gc khc trong cc vng kh thi. Trong m hnh NLP, Solver s dng phng php leo dc da trn tin trnh tm kim dc c gim thiu chung v phng php ny cn c gi l GRG. Cc bc ca tin trnh ny c thc hin nh sau: S dng cc gi tr ban u ca cc bin s quyt nh tnh ton mt hng i c sao cho ci thin nhanh nht gi tr ca hm mc tiu.Solver li th mt hng tnh ton mi t mt im khi s mi, tin trnh trn c lp li cho n khi gi tr OV khng cn c ci thin tt hn trn bt k mt hng mi no th tin trnh tm kim gi tr ti u kt thc.

  • 3.4 NG DNG M HNH PHI TUYNM hnh danh mc (portfolio)Khung tnh hung:Cc nh qun l danh mc u t lun tm kim ri ro thp v t sut sinh li cao nn c gng tt a ha t sut sinh li (ng vi ri ro cho php) hoc ti thiu ha ri ro (vi gii hn v ri ro).Nh u t cn xc nh t trng ti u vo cc loi chng khon trong danh mc.Tp hp cc quyt nh kh thi phi tha mn cc rng buc.Tng t trng u t = 1 (gii hn chnh sch u t ht)T trng mi loi phi cao hn hoc thp hn 1 con s cho php (gii hn chnh sch a dng ha)T trng phi >=0 (gii hn chnh sch khng bn khng).Tng vn u t nh hn ngun vn c sn (gii hn t nhin)Ri ro thp hn 1 mc no hoc TSSL phi cao hn mc cho php.

  • 3.5 M HNH PORTFOLIOBi ton ti u haHm mc tiu:TSSL danh mc -> MaxHoc RR danh mc -> MinBin s ra quyt nh:T trng u t vo cc chng khon (xi)Rng buc:Rng buc v vn u t.Rng buc v u t ht.Gii hn v trn ri ro hoc sn TSSL.Rng buc v bn khng v a dng ha.

  • 3.5 M HNH PORTFOLIOKin thc nn ti chnhxi l t trng u t vo c phiu i. i2 = phng sai ca chng khon th i12 = hip phng sai gia t sut sinh li c phiu 1 v 2ri = t sut sinh li mong i hng nm ca c phiu ib = t sut sinh li ti thiu mong i hng nm t tng s tin u t vo danh mcSi = mc u t ti a vo c phiu th i ; i = 1,2

  • 3.5 M HNH PORTFOLIOBi ton ti u haHm mc tiu:12x12 + 212x1x2 + 22x22 > MinBin s ra quyt nh:x1, x2Rng bucx1 + x2 = 1 (tt c s tin phi c u t ht)x1r1 + x2r2 b (t sut sinh li mong i ti thiu ca danh mc)x1 S1 (mc u t ti a vo c phiu 1)x2 S2 (mc u t ti a vo c phiu 2)x1, x2 0 (khng c bn khng c phiu)

  • YU CUChuyn bi ton ti u ha trn vo bng tnhS dng Solver gii quytSo snh vi kt qu ha trong schThc hnh vi danh mc gm 3 chng khon.

    BI TP LN:S dng s liu thc t lp v gii quyt m hnh Portfolio trong thc t (S lng chng khon trong danh mc l 5)

  • 3.6 M HNH QUN L HNG TN KHO EOQKin thc nn ti chnh

    Cc chi ph lin quan n tn khoTi cng mt thi im khi mt doanh nghip c hng nhng li ch t vic s dng hng tn kho th cc chi ph c lin quan cng pht sinh tng ng, bao gm:Chi ph t hng (Ordering costs)Chi ph tn tr (Carrying costs)Chi ph thit hi do kho khng c hng (Stockout costs)

  • 3.6 M HNH QUN L HNG TN KHO EOQKin thc nn ti chnh

    Chi ph t hngChi ph t hng bao gm cc chi ph giao dch, chi ph vn chuyn v chi ph giao nhn hng. Chi ph t hng c tnh bng n v tin t cho mi ln t hng. Chi ph tn trChi ph tn tr bao gm tt c cc chi ph lu gi hng trong kho. Chi ph tn tr c tnh bng n v tin t trn mi n v hng lu kho hoc c tnh bng t l phn trm trn gi tr hng lu kho trong mt thi k. Chi ph thit hi khi khng c hng (hng tn kho ht)Chi ph thit hi do hng tn kho ht (Stockout costs) xy ra bt c khi no doanh nghip khng c kh nng giao hng bi v nhu cu hng ln hn s lng hng sn c trong kho.

  • 3.6 M HNH QUN L HNG TN KHO EOQKin thc nn ti chnhGi Q l lng hng tn kho cho mi ln t hng. Ti thi im u k, lng hng tn kho l Q v thi im cui k l 0 nn s lng tn kho bnh qun trong k l:

    Gi C l chi ph lu gi cho mi n v hng tn kho th tng chi ph lu gi hng tn kho trong k l:

  • 3.6 M HNH QUN L HNG TN KHO EOQKin thc nn ti chnhGi S l lng hng tiu th trong k nn s ln t hng trong k l

    Gi O l chi ph cho mi ln t hng th tng chi ph t hng trong k l:

    Gi TC l tng chi ph th:

  • 3.6 M HNH QUN L HNG TN KHO EOQ

  • 3.6 M HNH QUN L HNG TN KHO EOQV d:Cng ty bn s Steco c nhu cu hng ha mi thng duy tr mc n nh l vo khong 5.000 sn phm (60.000 sn phm/nm).Gi nh chi ph cho mt ln t hng ca cng ty Steco l 25$. Chi ph lu gi tnh trn mi sn phm tn kho bao gm chi ph c hi ca vn l 20% trn gi mua vo v chi ph tn tr l 4% trn gi mua vo mi sn phm. Vy chi ph lu gi cho mi n v hng tn kho l 24% x 8,00$ = 1,92$.

  • 3.6 M HNH QUN L HNG TN KHO EOQBi ton ti u ha ca cng ty Steco

    Hm mc tiu:

    Bin s ra quyt nhQRng buc:Q >= 1

  • YU CUChuyn m hnh ti u ha trn vo bng tnhDng Solver gii quyt v so snh kt qu ca Cng thc tn kho ti u:

    Thc hnh vi m hnh EOQ chit khu theo s lng t hng