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LEAD Virginia:LEAD Virginia: Where We Are in Virginia—
Economic Drivers
April 17, 2010
Economic Drivers of Virginia
National growthIs the recession o er?Is the recession over?What determines how fast we can grow?
Industry BaseOccupation BaseTake-Aways
2
yAverages are misleading Not all industries/jobs are equalPast FutureSkills and education are important
2
Real GDP Grew an Annualized 5.6% in 4th Qtr 2009
Real Gross Domestic Product Quarterly Annualized Percent Change
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
2.0
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
NBER Defines Recession
• Business Cycle Dating Committee
A i i i ifi t d li i i• A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in – real GDP,
– real income,
employment– employment,
– industrial production, and
– wholesale-retail sales.
3
Business Cycle Dating Committee Met April 8, 2010
• The committee reviewed the most recent data for all indicators relevant to the determination of a possible date of the trough in economic activity marking the end of the recession that began in December 2007.
• The trough date would identify the end of contraction and the beginning of expansion. Although most indicators have turned up, the committee decided that the determination of the trough date on the basis of current data would be premature. Many indicators are quite preliminary at this time and will be revised in coming months. The committee acts only on the basis of actual indicators and doesThe committee acts only on the basis of actual indicators and does not rely on forecasts in making its determination of the dates of peaks and troughs in economic activity. The committee did review data relating to the date of the peak, previously determined to have occurred in December 2007, marking the onset of the recent recession.
Recession Ended in 3rd Quarter 2009
680
Initial Unemployment ClaimsThousands, 4-Week Moving Average
380
430
480
530
580
630
680
Source: U.S. Department of Labor.Data through March 2010.
280
330
Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10
4
Industrial Production is Growing
115
Industrial Production Index
100
105
110
Source: Federal Reserve Bank.Data through February 2010.
90
95
Feb-98 Feb-00 Feb-02 Feb-04 Feb-06 Feb-08 Feb-10
Employment Starting to Grow(Still Down 8.4 Million Since 12/07)
Employment Growth Monthly Change in Thousands
Employment Growth Monthly Change in Thousands
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
Source: U.S. Department of Labor.Data through March 2010.
-1,000
-800
-600
Mar-98 Mar-00 Mar-02 Mar-04 Mar-06 Mar-08 Mar-10
-1,000
-800
-600
Mar-98 Mar-00 Mar-02 Mar-04 Mar-06 Mar-08 Mar-10
5
How Long Before Back to Employment Level at Start of Recession?
Jobs Created Per Month in
11 M Jobs Lost with Marginally Attached or
Recovery 8.4 M Jobs Lost Prefer Full Time
200,000 42 months or 3.5 yrs 55 months or 4.6 yrs
250,000 34 months or 2.8 yrs 44 months or 3.7 yrs
300,000 28 months or 2.3 yrs 37 months or 3.1 yrs
400,000 21 months or 1.8 yrs 28 months or 2.3 yrs
Unemployment Rate Also Lags
10.7
Unemployment Rate
5.7
6.7
7.7
8.7
9.7
Source: U.S. Department of Labor.Data through March 2010.
3.7
4.7
Mar-98 Mar-01 Mar-04 Mar-07 Mar-10
6
Consumer Confidence Index 1985 = 100
Consumers Don’t Feel Good About Economy
70
90
110
130
150
170
190
Present Situation Index
10
30
50
Source: Conference BoardData through March 2010.
Feb-98 Feb-01 Feb-04 Feb-07 Feb-10
Consumer Confidence Index 1985 = 100
Consumers Don’t Feel Good About Economy
70
90
110
130
150
170
190
Present Situation IndexTotal Index
10
30
50
Feb-98 Feb-01 Feb-04 Feb-07 Feb-10
Expectations Index
Source: Conference BoardData through March 2010.
7
Consumers have Begun to Spend
400 000
Retail Sales$ Millions
280,000
310,000
340,000
370,000
400,000
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce.Data through February 2010.
220,000
250,000
Feb-00 Feb-02 Feb-04 Feb-06 Feb-08 Feb-10
Consumers have Begun to Spend
400 000
Retail Sales$ Millions
280,000
310,000
340,000
370,000
400,000
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce.Data through February 2010.
220,000
250,000
Feb-00 Feb-02 Feb-04 Feb-06 Feb-08 Feb-10
8
Consumers have Begun to Spend
400 000
Retail Sales$ Millions
280,000
310,000
340,000
370,000
400,000
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce.Data through February 2010.
220,000
250,000
Feb-00 Feb-02 Feb-04 Feb-06 Feb-08 Feb-10
Cash-for-Clunker Program Helped Jump Start Economy
22 000
Total Auto Sales,Thousand Units, SAAR
12 000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
22,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Aug-97 Aug-99 Aug-01 Aug-03 Aug-05 Aug-07 Aug-09
9
Will the Recovery Stall?
22 000
Total Auto Sales,Thousand Units, SAAR
12 000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
22,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Sep-97 Sep-99 Sep-01 Sep-03 Sep-05 Sep-07 Sep-09
Will the Recovery Stall?
22,000
Total Light Vehicle Sales,Thousand Units, SAAR
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
8,000
10,000
,
Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10
10
What Does this Means for the Economy?
• Not depression
• 1930’s unemployment rate >20% for 4 years (today, it’s 9.7%)
• Real GDP declined for 4 years– 1929 -8.6%
1930 6 4%– 1930 -6.4%
– 1931 -13.0%
– 1932 -1.3%
– 2009 -2.4%
Change in Home Prices From Year Ago, 2009 Qtr 4
Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency.
11
Federal Credit Supported New Home Sales
New Home Sales Thousands
700
900
1,100
1,300
1,500
300
500
Jan-97 Jan-99 Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09
First-Time Home Buyers Reach Record Market Share (survey started in 1981)
• First-time homebuyers47% of all home sales in 2009
41% in 2008
Previous high: 44% in 1991
• First-time homebuyers profileMedian age 30Median age 30
Median income $61,600
Cost of home $156,000 (165,000 in 2008)
Source: National Association of Realtors Survey, 2009.
12
Anticipating Federal Credit Caused Lower Trough in New Home Sales
New Home Sales Thousands, SAAR
700
900
1,100
1,300
1,500
300
500
Nov-96 Nov-98 Nov-00 Nov-02 Nov-04 Nov-06 Nov-08
Lowest since 1963: Jan ‘09: 329,000
Federal Credit Supported New Home Sales
New Home Sales Thousands, SAAR
700
900
1,100
1,300
1,500
July ‘09: 419,000
300
500
Nov-96 Nov-98 Nov-00 Nov-02 Nov-04 Nov-06 Nov-08
Lowest since 1963: Jan ‘09: 329,000
13
Federal Home Credit
• Passed in February 2009
O i i ll t t d i N b 2009• Originally set to end in November 2009
Federal Home Credit
• Passed in February 2009
O i i ll t t d i N b 2009• Originally set to end in November 2009
• Tax credit extended and broadened– 1st time buyer must sign purchase agreement 4/30/10
– Close 6/30/10
14
The Fed’s Goal: 3% - 3.5% Real GDP Growth?
3.0% - 3.5%NoninflationaryEconomic Growth
CHMURAECONOMICS&ANALYTICS
Unemployment FallsCapacity Utilization RisesSlower Deliveries
How Fast Can the Economy Grow?
4.5 Labor Force
ForecastAnnual Growth Rate
1 5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
28
Source: CBO, January 2006.
1.7
2.5
1.6
1.2 1.2
0.7
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
1951-1973 1974-1981 1982-1990 1991-1995 1995-2005 2006-2016
15
How Fast Can the Economy Grow?
4.0 3.8
3 3
ForecastAnnual Growth Rate
Productivity +Labor Force =
Potential GDP
2.1
2.5
0.8
1.4
1.5
2.1
2.1
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5 3.23.0
2.7
3.3
2.8
Potential GDP
29Source: CBO, January 2006.
1.7 1.6
1.2 1.2
0.7
0.0
0.5
1.0
1951-1973 1974-1981 1982-1990 1991-1995 1995-2005 2006-2016
2009 Actual 2010 ForecastQtr 1 Qtr 2 Qtr 3 Qtr 4 Qtr 1 Qtr 2 Qtr 3 Qtr 4
Quarterly Annualized Rates (%)Real GDP ‐6.4 ‐0.7 2.2 5.6 1.8 2.2 2.2 2.5
Consumer Spending 0.6 ‐0.9 2.8 1.6 1.9 1.7 1.8 1.9
National Forecast
Residential Investment ‐38.2 ‐23.3 19.0 3.8 6.2 4.6 11.3 12.2
Nonresidential Invest. ‐39.2 ‐9.6 ‐5.9 5.3 4.6 2.9 4.5 8.1
Equipment &Software ‐36.4 ‐4.8 1.5 19.0 9.4 7.2 8.2 11.7
Government Expend. ‐2.6 6.7 2.7 ‐1.3 4.8 3.9 3.0 1.9Net Exports, Goods & Services ($Billion) ‐385.8 ‐329.8 ‐356.8 ‐348.0 ‐344.5 ‐345.3 ‐358.3 ‐375.9
Percentage Change From a Year Ago (%)Consumer Price Index ‐0.2 ‐0.9 ‐1.6 1.5 2.2 2.1 1.6 1.0
Yields (%)
Federal Funds Rate 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9
Prime Rate 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.6 4.0
10‐Year Treasury 2.7 3.3 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.5
30‐Year Mortgage 5.1 5.0 5.2 4.9 5.1 5.1 5.2 5.3Source: Chmura Economics & AnalyticsNote: Yields reported for the average of the quarterGDP based on preliminary figures
16
Risks to the Recovery• Higher taxes
– Federal debt
– Health care reform
• International investors pull out of U.S. – Bond yields rise
– Further issues in real estate
• Inflation (Federal Reserve independence)
State Rankings, Employment Year- over-Year % Change Feb 2010
0.5
-2.5
-1.5
-0.5
Virginia
Alaska +279 jobsDC +228 jobs
-5.5
-4.5
-3.5
Virginia #29-100,700 jobs-2.7%
Wyoming -13,000 jobsNevada -61,500 jobs
17
Virginia Employment Declining at Slower Rate than Nation
4 0
Employment Growth Percent Change, Year-Over-Year
3 0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0Virginia
United States
Source: Virginia Employment Commission and Chmura.
-6.0
-5.0
-4.0
-3.0
Feb-98 Feb-00 Feb-02 Feb-04 Feb-06 Feb-08 Feb-10
United States
150
Change From a Year Ago, In Thousands,
Nonfarm Employment: Northern Virginia vs. the Rest of the State
Since 2000 (in thousands)112 Net Gain in VA163 Net Gain in NVA-50 Net LOSS ROS
(50)
-
50
100
(150)
(100)
Jan-
98
May
-98
Sep
-98
Jan-
99
May
-99
Sep
-99
Jan-
00
May
-00
Sep
-00
Jan-
01
May
-01
Sep
-01
Jan-
02
May
-02
Sep
-02
Jan-
03
May
-03
Sep
-03
Jan-
04
May
-04
Sep
-04
Jan-
05
May
-05
Sep
-05
Jan-
06
May
-06
Sep
-06
Jan-
07
May
-07
Sep
-07
Jan-
08
May
-08
Sep
-08
Jan-
09
May
-09
Sep
-09
Jan-
10
34Data through February 2010.
18
150
Change From a Year Ago, In Thousands,
Nonfarm Employment: Northern Virginia vs. the Rest of the State
Since 2000 (in thousands)112 Net Gain in VA163 Net Gain in NVA-50 Net LOSS ROS
(50)
-
50
100
2000 December 2007 (in thousands)
(150)
(100)
Jan-
98
May
-98
Sep
-98
Jan-
99
May
-99
Sep
-99
Jan-
00
May
-00
Sep
-00
Jan-
01
May
-01
Sep
-01
Jan-
02
May
-02
Sep
-02
Jan-
03
May
-03
Sep
-03
Jan-
04
May
-04
Sep
-04
Jan-
05
May
-05
Sep
-05
Jan-
06
May
-06
Sep
-06
Jan-
07
May
-07
Sep
-07
Jan-
08
May
-08
Sep
-08
Jan-
09
May
-09
Sep
-09
Jan-
10
35Data through February 2010.
2000 – December 2007 (in thousands)302 Net Gain in VA100 Net Gain in NVA102 Net Gain in ROS
150
Change From a Year Ago, In Thousands
Nonfarm Employment: Rural vs. Metropolitan Areas
Since 2000181 Net Gain in Metro VA69 Net LOSS in Rural Areas
(50)
-
50
100
(150)
(100)
Jan-
98
May
-98
Sep
-98
Jan-
99
May
-99
Sep
-99
Jan-
00
May
-00
Sep
-00
Jan-
01
May
-01
Sep
-01
Jan-
02
May
-02
Sep
-02
Jan-
03
May
-03
Sep
-03
Jan-
04
May
-04
Sep
-04
Jan-
05
May
-05
Sep
-05
Jan-
06
May
-06
Sep
-06
Jan-
07
May
-07
Sep
-07
Jan-
08
May
-08
Sep
-08
Jan-
09
May
-09
Sep
-09
Jan-
10
36Data through February 2010.
19
Unemployment Rate is High in Many Rural Areas
37
West Piedmont Workforce Area (Danville, Henry,
Martinsville, Patrick, and Pittsylvania) Skewed Toward Mfg
38
20
Employment Still Dropping in Manufacturing Sector
39
10,000 Job Loss in Broadwoven Fabric Mills …Top 10 Occupations Lost
Occupation Title JobsTextile Winding, Twisting, and Drawing Out Machine Setters, g, g, g ,Operators, and Tenders 1,297Textile Knitting and Weaving Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders 1,150Textile Bleaching and Dyeing Machine Operators and Tenders 552Sewing Machine Operators 457Inspectors, Testers, Sorters, Samplers, and Weighers 439First-Line Supervisors/Managers of Production and Operating Workers 370Industrial Machinery Mechanics 280
40
Industrial Machinery Mechanics 280Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand 269Extruding and Forming Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Synthetic and Glass Fibers 257Maintenance and Repair Workers, General 240TOTAL 5,311
21
Occupations
• Are linked to transferable skills– Move between industries
• Are linked to attributes/knowledge
• Take Away: Paradigm shift needed:• People – not industries– are a region’s resources
41
Reasons for Longer-Term Shifts in Growth
• Infrastructure– Highways
– Internet
– Quality of life
• Education
42
22
Broad Relationships Between Education and Economic Well-Being Are Well Established
• More education is associated with higher
Unemployment
Rate in 2008 (%) Education Attained
Median Weekly
Earnings in
2008 ($)
2 0 D l d 1 561associated with higher wages
• More education is associated with a lower unemployment rate
2.0 Doctoral degree 1,561
1.7 Professional degree 1,531
2.4 Master's degree 1,233
2.8 Bachelor's degree 1,012
3.7 Associate degree 757
5.1 Some college, no degree 699
5.7 High‐school graduate 618
9 Less than a high school diploma 453
43
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Mean Real Earnings of Workers 18 Years and Over by Education Attainment
$45,000
Broad Relationships Between Education and Economic Well-Being Are Clear
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$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
High School Graduate
Some College/Associate's Degree
Bachelor's Degree
Advanced Degree
44
$0
$5,000
$10,000
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Less than High School
g
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population SurveyRecessions are shaded.
23
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Mean Real Earnings of Workers 18 Years and Over by Education Attainment
$45,000
Broad Relationships Between Education and Economic Well-Being Are Clear
then open the file again. If the red x still appears, you may have to delete the image and then insert it again.
the image, or the image may have been corrupted. Restart your computer, and then open the file again. If the red x still appears, you may have to delete the image and then insert it again.
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$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
High School Graduate
Some College/Associate's Degree
Bachelor's Degree
Advanced Degree
45
$0
$5,000
$10,000
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Less than High School
g
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population SurveyRecessions are shaded.
Our International Competitive Advantage is Education
11.7 12.114
Average Years of Schooling of Adults, Selected Countries
19902000
4.0 4.9
5.9 6.4
9.2 9.4
4.1 5.1
6.77.2
6.07.1
5.4 6.1
2
4
6
8
10
12
2000
46
0
2
Brazil China Hong Kong,China
India Mexico Singapore South
Africa
United
States
Source: World Bank Database.
24
Percentage of 15-Year Old Students at Each Proficiency Level on Math, by Country 2006
40
60
80
100Level 1 Below Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Level 5 Level 6%
80
60
40
20
0
20
100
Finland
Korea
Hong Kong‐China
Azerbaijan
Canada
Macao
‐China
Netherlands
Chinese Taipei
Estonia
Australia
Japan
Liechtenstein
Switzerland
Den
mark
New Zealand
Ireland
Iceland
Belgium
Slovenia
Sweden
Czech Republic
United
Kingdom
Poland
Germany
Austria
Latvia
Slovak Republic
Hungary
Norw
ayFrance
Luxembourg
Lithuania
Spain
Russian Federation
United
States
Croatia
Portugal
Greece
Italy
Israel
Serbia
Uruguay
Turkey
Romania
Thailand
Bulgaria
Chile
Mexico
Montenegro
Argen
tina
Indonesia
Jordan
Colombia
Tunisia
Brazil
Qatar
Kyrgyzstan
Countries are ranked in descending order of percentage of 15-year-olds at Levels 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6.
Source: OECD PISA database 2006, Table 6.2a.
Percentage of 15-Year Old Students at Each Proficiency Level on Math, by Country 2006
40
60
80
100Level 1 Below Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Level 5 Level 6%
80
60
40
20
0
20
100
Finland
Korea
Hong Kong‐China
Azerbaijan
Canada
Macao
‐China
Netherlands
Chinese Taipei
Estonia
Australia
Japan
Liechtenstein
Switzerland
Den
mark
New Zealand
Ireland
Iceland
Belgium
Slovenia
Sweden
Czech Republic
United
Kingdom
Poland
Germany
Austria
Latvia
Slovak Republic
Hungary
Norw
ayFrance
Luxembourg
Lithuania
Spain
Russian Federation
United
States
Croatia
Portugal
Greece
Italy
Israel
Serbia
Uruguay
Turkey
Romania
Thailand
Bulgaria
Chile
Mexico
Montenegro
Argen
tina
Indonesia
Jordan
Colombia
Tunisia
Brazil
Qatar
Kyrgyzstan
Countries are ranked in descending order of percentage of 15-year-olds at Levels 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6.
Source: OECD PISA database 2006, Table 6.2a.
25
Mean scoreChinese Taipei 549Finland 548Hong Kong-China 547Korea 547Netherlands 531Switzerland 530Canada 527Macao-China 525Liechtenstein 525Japan 523New Zealand 522Belgium 520Australia 520
Mathematics Scale, 2006
Australia 520Estonia 515Denmark 513Czech Republic 510Iceland 506Austria 505Slovenia 504Germany 504Sweden 502Ireland 501France 496United Kingdom 495Poland 495Slovak Republic 492Hungary 491L b 490Luxembourg 490Norway 490Lithuania 486Latvia 486Spain 480Azerbaijan 476Russian Federation 476
United States 474Croatia 467Portugal 466Italy 462Greece 459
Statistically significantly above the OECD average Not statistically significantly different from the OECD averageStatistically significantly below the OECD average
These Students Will Be Underpinning Growth in 4 to 8 Years . . .
80
90
100
Percentage of 8th Graders Passing Math SOL, 2008
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
50Source: Virginia Dept. of Education.
0
Ric
hmon
d C
ount
y
Pow
hata
n C
ount
y
Goo
chla
nd C
ount
y
Alb
emar
le C
ount
y
Roa
noke
Cou
nty
Wis
e C
ount
y
Lee
Cou
nty
Rad
ford
City
Car
roll
Cou
nty
Flu
vann
a C
ount
y
Sco
tt C
ount
y
Alle
ghan
y C
ount
y
Mec
klen
burg
Cou
nty
Sm
yth
Cou
nty
Acc
omac
k C
ount
y
Fra
nklin
Cou
nty
Kin
g W
illia
m C
ount
y
Sal
em C
ity
Che
ster
field
Cou
nty
Taz
ewel
l Cou
nty
Nor
thum
berla
nd C
ount
y
Arli
ngto
n C
ount
y
Pul
aski
Cou
nty
Ess
ex C
ount
y
Virg
inia
Bea
ch C
ity
Glo
uces
ter
Cou
nty
Aug
usta
Cou
nty
Bed
ford
Cou
nty
Mat
hew
s C
ount
y
Cum
berla
nd C
ount
y
New
Ken
t C
ount
y
Gre
ensv
ille
Cou
nty
Hop
ewel
l City
App
omat
tox
Cou
nty
Cla
rke
Cou
nty
Prin
ce G
eorg
e C
ount
y
Ric
hmon
d C
ity
Roa
noke
City
Mar
tinsv
ille
City
Mon
tgom
ery
Cou
nty
Cha
rlotte
svill
e C
ity
Pag
e C
ount
y
Bat
h C
ount
y
Win
ches
ter
City
26
These Students Will Be Underpinning Growth in 4 to 8 Years . . .
80
90
100
Percentage of 8th Graders Passing Math SOL, 2008
Charlottesville City 66Greene County 65Lancaster County 65Page County 65Northampton County 62Colonial Beach 61Bath County 60King and Queen County 59Manassas City 50Winchester City 50
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80 y
51Source: Virginia Dept. of Education.
0
Ric
hmon
d C
ount
y
Pow
hata
n C
ount
y
Goo
chla
nd C
ount
y
Alb
emar
le C
ount
y
Roa
noke
Cou
nty
Wis
e C
ount
y
Lee
Cou
nty
Rad
ford
City
Car
roll
Cou
nty
Flu
vann
a C
ount
y
Sco
tt C
ount
y
Alle
ghan
y C
ount
y
Mec
klen
burg
Cou
nty
Sm
yth
Cou
nty
Acc
omac
k C
ount
y
Fra
nklin
Cou
nty
Kin
g W
illia
m C
ount
y
Sal
em C
ity
Che
ster
field
Cou
nty
Taz
ewel
l Cou
nty
Nor
thum
berla
nd C
ount
y
Arli
ngto
n C
ount
y
Pul
aski
Cou
nty
Ess
ex C
ount
y
Virg
inia
Bea
ch C
ity
Glo
uces
ter
Cou
nty
Aug
usta
Cou
nty
Bed
ford
Cou
nty
Mat
hew
s C
ount
y
Cum
berla
nd C
ount
y
New
Ken
t C
ount
y
Gre
ensv
ille
Cou
nty
Hop
ewel
l City
App
omat
tox
Cou
nty
Cla
rke
Cou
nty
Prin
ce G
eorg
e C
ount
y
Ric
hmon
d C
ity
Roa
noke
City
Mar
tinsv
ille
City
Mon
tgom
ery
Cou
nty
Cha
rlotte
svill
e C
ity
Pag
e C
ount
y
Bat
h C
ount
y
Win
ches
ter
City
Take Aways
• Recession ended 3rd quarter 2009
• Faster productivity growth leads to faster economic growth; higher wages
• Not all regions benefit during expansions
• Be careful how you apply state averages
52
• People not industries are a region’s most valuable resource . . .education is very important