China and IIASA Highlights · 21st century. We should spur the full integration of science and technology into industries and finance, improve the environment for innovation and pool
1. Summary2. National Member Organization3. Some Leading Chinese Personalities Associated with
IIASA4. Research Partners5. Research Collaborations: Selected Highlights6. Capacity Building7. Further Information
BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE“The Belt and Road Initiative is new by nature and we need to encourage innovation in pursuing this initiative. We should pursue innovation-driven development and intensify cooperation in frontier areas such as digital economy, artificial intelligence, nanotechnology and quantum computing, and advance the development of big data, cloud computing and smart cities so as to turn them into a digital silk road of the 21st century. We should spur the full integration of science and technology into industries and finance, improve the environment for innovation and pool resources for innovation. ”
President Xi JinpingBelt and Road Forum for International CooperationBeijing, China14 May 2017
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Presentation Notes
President Xi Jinping proposed the Belt and Road Initiative in 2013. The initiative aims to build a trade and infrastructure network connecting Asia with Europe and Africa along and beyond the ancient Chinese Silk Road trade routes. In 2017, “pursuing the Belt and Road Initiative” was put in the Communist Party of China’s constitution. Chinese President Xi Jinping delivered a keynote speech at the opening ceremony of the Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation on the morning of May 14, 2017. The Belt and Road Initiative includes 68 countries that comprise around 70 percent of the world’s population. The Chinese investment in the project could approach $4 trillion.
BELT AND ROAD SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY & INNOVATION COOPERATION ACTION PLAN
• In the next five years, China will:– Offer 2,500 short-term research visits to China for young
foreign scientists;– Train 5,000 foreign scientists, engineers and managers;– Establish 50 joint laboratories; and – Set up a big data service platform on ecological and
environmental protection.
IIASA
An international research institute that conducts multidisciplinary research to help policymakers find long-term
solutions to global challenges facing countries
Presenter
Presentation Notes
IIASA’s mission is well-aligned with the objectives of the Chinese government, including the Belt and Road Initiative.
SUMMARY (2010-2017)National Member Organization
National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC)
Membership start date 2002Research partners 43 organizations in ChinaAreas of research collaborations
Sustainable Agriculture and Food SecuritySmart ways to clean up China’s airSustainable Energy Future and Climate ChangeGlobal Energy Assessment and ChinaWater scarcity in ChinaProjecting changing population and human capital in China Enhancing disaster preparedness in ChinaTerrestrial carbon management in ChinaEvolution of cooperationAdvanced systems analysis
Capacity Building 68 young scientists from China have participated in IIASA’s Young Scientists Summer Program4 in IIASA’s Postdoctoral Fellowship Program5 in the Southern African Young Scientists Summer Program
Publication output 361 publications
NATIONAL MEMBER ORGANIZATION• National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) • Professor Xincheng Xie, Vice President of NSFC, is the IIASA Council Member for China • Mr. Chuang Zhao, Program Officer, Sino-German Center for Promotion of Research, is the NMO
Secretary for China.• NSFC Advisory Expert Group on Cooperation with IIASA, the Belmont Forum and other International
Organizations– Dr XIE Xincheng (Chair), Member of CAS (Chinese Academy of Sciences); Vice President, NSFC– Dr FU Bojie, Member of CAS; Professor, Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, CAS; President, The Geographical Society of China– Dr GUO Zhengtang, Member of CAS; Professor, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, CAS; Vice President, University of Chinese Academy of
Sciences– Dr. WANG Huijun, Member of CAS; Professor, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, CAS; President, The Meteorological Society of China– Dr CUI Peng, Member of CAS; Professor of Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, CAS; Vice President, The Geographical Society of
China– Dr DENG Xiangzheng, Professor, Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy, CAS– Dr HUANG Jikun, Professor, School of Agriculture, Peking University– Dr LI Xiubin, Professor, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS– Dr PENG Xizhe, Professor, Fudan University– Dr SHI Peijun, Professor and Executive Vice President, Beijing Normal University– Dr YU Guirui, Professor and Deputy Director, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS; Vice President, The
Ecological Society of China– Dr ZHANG Wei, Professor and Dean, College of Management and Economics, Tianjin University– Dr ZHANG Xiliang, Professor and Director, Institute of Energy, Environment, and Economics, Tsinghua University– Dr ZHOU Tianjun (Secretary for Belmont Forum affairs in the Committee), Professor and Deputy Director, State Key Laboratory of Numerical
Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics,Institute of Atmospheric Physics, CAS – Dr ZHU Bing, (Secretary for IIASA affairs in the Committee), Professor and Executive Deputy Director, Institute of Circular Economy, Tsinghua
University; Guest Research Scholar, IIASA
Presenter
Presentation Notes
In 2002, China with the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) as the National Member Organization (NMO) of IIASA formally joined the Institute. NSFC is directly under the jurisdiction of China’s State Council and is responsible for administering the Central Government’s National Natural Science Fund which has been approved by the National People’s Congress. Professor Xincheng Xie, Vice President of the NSFC, is the IIASA Council Member for China and along with representatives of each of IIASA’s member countries governs the Institute. Mr. Chuang Zhao, Program Officer, Sino-German Center for Promotion of Research, NSFC, is the China NMO Secretary NSFC has established a NSFC Advisory Expert Group on Cooperation with IIASA, the Belmont Forum and other International Organizations. The Group has the following members: Dr LIU Congqiang (Chair), Member of CAS (Chinese Academy of Sciences); Vice President, NSFC Dr FU Bojie, Member of CAS; Professor, Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, CAS; President, The Geographical Society of China Dr GUO Zhengtang, Member of CAS; Professor, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, CAS; Vice President, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Dr. WANG Huijun, Member of CAS; Professor, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, CAS; President, The Meteorological Society of China Dr CUI Peng, Member of CAS; Professor of Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, CAS; Vice President, The Geographical Society of China Dr DENG Xiangzheng, Professor, Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy, CAS Dr HUANG Jikun, Professor, School of Agriculture, Peking University Dr LI Xiubin, Professor, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS Dr PENG Xizhe, Professor, Fudan University Dr SHI Peijun, Professor and Executive Vice President, Beijing Normal University Dr YU Guirui, Professor and Deputy Director, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS; Vice President, The Ecological Society of China Dr ZHANG Wei, Professor and Dean, College of Management and Economics, Tianjin University Dr ZHANG Xiliang, Professor and Director, Institute of Energy, Environment, and Economics, Tsinghua University Dr ZHOU Tianjun (Secretary for Belmont Forum affairs in the Committee), Professor and Deputy Director, State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics,Institute of Atmospheric Physics, CAS Dr ZHU Bing, (Secretary for IIASA affairs in the Committee), Professor and Executive Deputy Director, Institute of Circular Economy, Tsinghua University; Guest Research Scholar, IIASA
SOME LEADING CHINESE PERSONALITIES FROM ACADEMIA AND GOVERNMENT ASSOCIATED WITH IIASA
Zhenghua JiangDadi Zhou
Jing-Yun Fang
Xincheng Xie Wen Xeuguo
Jin Donghan Linxiu ZhangBojie Fu
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Presentation Notes
Some leading personalities from academia and government in China and associated with IIASA Professor Zheng-hua Jiang, former Vice-Chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress of the People's Republic of China, and former Vice Minister of the National Population and Family Planning Commission in the Ministry of Population and Development, has collaborated with IIASA for many years, most recently in the area of population, urbanization and the environment. Professor Xincheng Xie, Vice President of the NSFC, is the IIASA Council Member for China. Vice President Xen Xueguo, China Academy of Social Science, Executive Vice President of Shanghai Academy. Professor Dadi Zhou has worked closely with IIASA’s energy researchers. During this time he was Vice Chairman of the State Expert Advisory Committee to the National Energy Leading Group of China, a member of the National Expert Team of China for Climate Change, and Director of the Energy Research Institute among other positions. Professor Jin Donghan, President of Shanghai University Professor Bojie Fu, Research Centre for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences. Dr. Fu is a member of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, President of Chinese Geographical Society, and is a member of IIASA Scientific Advisory Committee. Professor Linxiu Zhang, Deputy Director, Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy; Director, Rural Education Action Program China, Chinese Academy of Sciences. Professor Zhang was a Panel Member for IIASA Institutional Review. Prof. Jing-Yun Fang, Director, Key Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes at the Ministry of Education as well as Director of the Institute of Botany at the Chinese Academy of Science, has been a member of IIASA’s Scientific Advisory Committee since 2011.
COLLABORATING, RESEARCH & FUNDING PARTNERS
43 institutions in China, including: • Beijing Forestry University• Beijing Normal University• Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS)• Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) and many of its institutions• China University of Mining and Technology• Energy Research Institute, National Development and Reform Commission• Peking University• Shanghai Meteorological Bureau • The State Forestry Administration of the People's Republic of China (SFC) • Shanghai University• Tsinghua University
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Presentation Notes
IIASA is continually developing collaborations with China and has recently been working with 43 organizations in China via formal and informal connections IIASA works with research funders, academic institutions, policymakers and individual researchers in China. The following list includes the names of the organizations or the individual’s affiliated institutions that have all recently collaborated with IIASA. Beihang University ■Beijing Forestry University ■Beijing Normal University ■China Conservation and Research Center for the Giant Pandas, State Forestry Administration of the People’s Republic of China (SFC) ■China Council for International Cooperation on Environment and Development (CCICED) ■China University of Mining and Technology ■Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) ■Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), including: Coal Liquefaction Research Center Institute for Atmospheric Physics Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research (IGSNRR) Institute of Soil Science Institute of Zoology ■Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences (CRAES) ■China National Environmental Monitoring Center ■Chongqing Normal University ■Clean Air Alliance of China (CAAC) ■Development Research Center of the State Council of the People’s Republic of China (DRC) ■East China Normal University (ECNU) ■East China University of Science and Technology (ECUST) ■Energy Research Institute National Development and Reform Commission (ERI) ■Fudan University ■Huazhong Agricultural University (HZAU) ■Lanzhou University ■Nanjing University (NJU) ■National Center for Climate Change Strategy and International Cooperation ■National Geomatics Center of China (NGCC) ■National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) ■North China Electric Power University ■Peking University (PKU) ■Renmin University of China ■Shanghai Jiao Tong University ■Shanghai Institute of Technology ■Shanghai Meteorological Bureau ■Shanghai Ocean University (SHOU) ■Shanghai University (SHU) ■Shenhua Coal Liquefaction Research Center ■Sichuan Academy of Forestry ■Sichuan University (SCU) ■South China University of Technology (SCUT) ■Southwest University ■South University of Science and Technology of China (SUSTC) ■State Energy Administration of the People’s Republic of China ■State Forestry Administration of the People’s Republic of China (SFA) ■Tianjin University (TJU) ■Tsinghua University (TH) ■Wuhan University ■Xinjiang University (XJU)
RESEARCH COLLABORATIONSSelected Highlights:• Planning the Future of China’s Agriculture• Mapping Nitrogen Scarcity• Modeling Green and Blue Water• Who will Feed China’s Livestock?• Cutting Air Pollution and Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Simultaneously in China• Greenhouse Gas Emissions 2000-2100• Global Energy Assessment and China• Projecting Population and Urbanization in China
PLANNING THE FUTURE OF CHINA’S AGRICULTURE
Projections for China’s production of maize and rice in 2030 (volume per hectare)
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Presentation Notes
China’s agricultural sector is changing. Driving this transformation is rising food demand due to a growing population, that is expected to reach 1,436 million by 2030, increasing urbanization of up to 60 percent by 2030, and rising incomes as the country’s economic growth benefits more and more people. At the same time, industrialization and climate change are expected to lead to a loss of crop land of some 6.5 million ha and trade liberalization and technical progress will continue to drive further change. Understanding the impacts of these driving forces on farmers and consumers across the diverse 2885 counties that make up China is not easy. Setting the right agricultural policies is even harder. In a range of collaborations with partners in China, IIASA has developed a range of research tools to help identify the right policies as part of on-going cooperation with China since 1995. The above figure resulted from a collaboration between IIASA, the Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research (IGSNRR) at the Chinese Academy of Sciences, and Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy Center (CCAP) among others. Together they developed Chinagro II—a highly detailed model of Chinese agriculture—in a series of projects starting in 2001.
MAPPING NITROGEN SCARCITY
Nitrogen Input, Output, Balance
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Presentation Notes
A collaboration between Beijing Forest University and IIASA made a comprehensive assessment of global nitrogen flows in cropland for the year 2000. By quantifying the nitrogen flows into and out of cropland (see map), the researchers were able to identify the areas of the globe suffering from both under and over use of nitrogen fertilizer. The above world maps show (a) nitrogen input in cropland, (b) nitrogen output in cropland, (c) soil nitrogen balance in cropland, and (d) surface nitrogen balance in cropland. Data is to the nearest five arc-minutes, equivalent to about 9km2 at the equator. Background info on the study: Research led by IIASA and Beijing Forestry University shows that about 80 percent of African countries are confronted with nitrogen stress or scarcity, which, along with poverty, causes food insecurity and malnutrition. Published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) on 12 April 2010, the study also indicates that globally, two-fifths of nitrogen used in agriculture is lost to ecosystems, with harmful environmental effects. The research makes a comprehensive assessment of global nitrogen flows in cropland for the year 2000. By quantifying the nitrogen flows into and out of cropland (see map), the researchers were able to identify the areas of the globe suffering from both under and over use of nitrogen fertilizer. The doubling of world food production in the past four decades could only have been achieved with an almost sevenfold increase in nitrogen fertilization. The study confirmed the huge increase in the use of nitrogen fertilizer by showing there was no nitrogen scarcity for the world as a whole in 2000. Yet at a national level nitrogen scarcity did occur and mostly in African countries. Among 50 African countries, 29 had nitrogen scarcity, meaning the average nitrogen input per capita to the countries’ cropland was less than the minimum nitrogen level needed to support a healthy human being. “Poor infrastructure in rural areas of Africa leads to nitrogen scarcity by driving up the farm-gate price of fertilizer to between two and six times that in the rest of the world,” says Professor Junguo Liu, lead author of the study. “And the benefits from fertilizer application are also reduced because of the lack of regional transport and storage facilities. Higher crop yields mean local markets are flooded with a crop that cannot be cheaply transported elsewhere. This lowers the local market price of the crop and in turn the incentive for farmers to invest in fertilizer.” Such disincentives saw a fall in the application of nitrogen fertilizer in Africa between 1990 and 2000 (from 3.4 to 3.1 kg/cap/yr) and also contributed to a decline in cereal production (from 149 to 141 kg/cap/yr). While developed countries that suffer from nitrogen scarcity can afford to heavily import food to meet domestic needs, Africa has far more limited financial resources. Consequently the falling crop yields have played a role in the lack of progress by Africa to reduce malnutrition. However, excessive use of nitrogenous fertilizers also poses serious negative consequences. The research calculated that globally 41 percent of the nitrogen applied to cropland was lost into ecosystems. This was particularly high in Western Europe, the eastern United States, and southern China where wet and moist soils encourage nitrate leaching into lakes, reservoirs, estuaries, and coastal seas. Nitrogen leaching damages the environment by causing eutrophication, air and water pollution, soil acidification, and emission of the greenhouse and ozone-depleting gas nitrous oxide among others. So how can the environmental consequences be minimized without compromising food production? The study showed growing leguminous crops or carefully selecting crops for a given agro-ecological zone can reduce the amount of nitrogen fertilizer required. It also demonstrated that leaving more crop residues in cropland or reducing tillage can also reduce nitrogen losses, although this is not always possible, as crop residues are widely used in many parts of Asia and Africa to help meet other needs such as fuel. The researchers concluded that more effective management of nitrogen is essential to minimize the harmful environmental consequences. Further information Liu J, You L, Amini M, Obersteiner M, Herrero M, Zehnder A & Yang H (2010). A high-resolution assessment on global nitrogen flows in cropland. PNAS 107(17): 8035-8040
MODELING GREEN AND BLUE WATERWorld water use in 2000
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Presentation Notes
A collaboration between Beijing Forest University, IIASA and others made a global assessment of the use of green and blue water in agriculture, which shows the need for dramatic improvements in the management of green water. The above map shows the annual quantity of water consumed by cropland (a) in crop growing periods and(b) during the entire year in the year 2000 to the nearest 30-arc minutes. Background on study: A global assessment of the use of green and blue water in agriculture calls for dramatic improvements to be made to the management of green water. Global crop production uses four to five times more green than blue water according to new research from Beijing Forestry University, the Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, and IIASA. Yet, as water managers have traditionally focused efforts on blue water management such as irrigation, improving green water management offers real potential for tackling the increasing water gap in food production. Currently around one-third of the world population suffers some form of water stress, and this is expected to increase to two-thirds over the next decades. Much of the water scarcity is the result of insufficient water for agricultural uses, in particular, food production. Globally, agricultural water use accounts for around 70 percent of blue water withdrawals and over 90 percent of total water use, when green water is also included. Accurate assessment of global water uses at high spatial resolution, particularly agricultural water use, is a key to quantifying water scarcity. Yet detailed assessments of both green and blue water uses are rare. The study, published in the Journal of Hydrology, aims to help fill this gap with a detailed assessment of the quantities of blue and green water water consumed in cropland across the globe (see map). The research showed that crops consumed 5,938km3 of water globally during growing periods in the year 2000, of which 84 percent was green water. Over the entire year, cropland used 7,323km3 of water, 87 percent of which was green water. Over the coming decades growing populations will consume more blue water and demand more food, placing an ever-increasing pressure on agriculture to produce more food using less blue water. The research calculated that there is significant potential to increase food production by better water management in combination with nutrient management. “Many low-cost techniques for water management, including soil conservation tillage and rainwater harvesting techniques, have not been fully exploited in many regions,” says Professor Junguo Liu, lead author of the study. “Larger blue water projects like dams offer less potential because projects have already been developed in the most suitable locations. This leaves the improvement of green water management as an important option to guarantee world food security in the future.” The study identifies the six countries with the highest consumption of water as China, the United States, India, Brazil, Russia, and Indonesia. Together, they consume over half (51.4 percent) of global water, mainly because of their enormous croplands which account for almost half (47 percent) of the world’s cropland. Parts of India, China, and the United States are the highest users of blue water, while arid or semi-arid regions, which use a higher proportion of blue water to make up for low rainfall, include north China, some west Asian countries, the Middle East and North Africa, the western United States, and Chile. The researchers also examined the trade in virtual water in which water-scarce countries overcome water shortages by importing water-intensive food. The two largest virtual water importers on a per capita basis are the Netherlands and Belgium mainly because of the large amount of feed concentrates and raw materials (e.g., cassava and soybeans) they import for livestock, much of which is then exported as meat. Further information Liu J & Yang H (2010) Spatially explicit assessment of global consumptive water uses in cropland: Green and blue water. Journal of Hydrology 384: 187–197 Box: Definition of Green and Blue Water Green water is the soil water held in the unsaturated zone, formed by precipitation and available to plants, while blue water refers to liquid water in rivers, lakes, wetlands, and aquifiers, which can be withdrawn for irrigation and other human uses. Irrigated agriculture receives blue water (from irrigation) as well as green water (from precipitation), while rainfed agriculture receives only green water. Rainwater harvesting is at the interface of blue and green water. Catching runoff and storing it in small reservoirs (or possibly underground) is interpreted as blue water management, while enhancement of soil infiltration is green water management. Extract from: Hoff H, Falkenmark M, Gerten D, Gordon L, Karlberg L & Rockström (2010) Greening the Global Water System. Journal of Hydrology 384:177-186
WHO WILL FEED CHINA’S LIVESTOCK?
PROJECT: Multi-scale agro-ecosystem model by combining two leading crop models to allow farm- and regional-level agricultural dynamics to be studied and
strategies developed to respond to climate change-induced changes in agriculture in China.
POLICY REPORT: Who will feed China’s livestock?
IMPACT: Considered by the State Council and relevant ministries, following comments by the Vice-premier and two ministries it was submitted to the
China Meteorological Administration.
Presenter
Presentation Notes
China’s agricultural sector is changing. Driving this transformation is rising food demand due to a growing population, that is expected to reach 1,436 million by 2030, increasing urbanization of up to 60% by 2030, and rising incomes as the country’s economic growth benefits more and more people. At the same time, industrialization and climate change are expected to lead to a loss of crop land of some 6.5 million ha, and trade liberalization and technical progress will continue to drive further change. Understanding the impacts of these driving forces on farmers and consumers across the diverse 2,885 counties that make up the countryside of China is not easy. Setting the right agricultural policies is even harder. To help identify the most effective policies and analyze their potential impacts on different parts of China, IIASA’s agriculture experts, along with research partners, developed the most detailed model of Chinese agriculture yet available in a series of projects starting in 2001. Known as Chinagro-II, the model helps the researchers analyze consumer and producer behavior, government policies, and markets, 17 major agricultural commodities, and 14 detailed farm types. Uniquely, the model provides detailed analysis down to the county level. China’s accession to the World Trade Organization in 2001 enabled the country to further open up to international food markets. At that time the key policy concern was whether the country could feed itself and how this would impact world food markets. Today, the key question is whether China can feed the animals required to meet the accelerating demand for meat and dairy products. As incomes grow in China, diets are changing, leading to fast-rising demand for animal proteins. Chinagro-II estimates that by 2030 China will need to produce 200 million more pigs per year, 3 billion more poultry, and several billion more fish. All of this requires much more feed via both domestic production and imports, including the import of dried distillers grain with solubles (DDGs). Indeed by 2030, the Chinagro model projects China will have to import 42.5% of its protein feed—some 58.1 million tons, equivalent to over a third of world trade in protein feed in 2004. However, as the researcher’s policy report “Who will feed China’s livestock?” points out, poor quality feed can damage livestock and cause pollution. The report makes the case for regulation and outlines measures to improve the supply and quality control of livestock feed. Interest in the recommendations is growing. “The Vice-Premier commented on our policy report and it has been submitted to the policymaking discussion in the State Council and to relevant ministries,” explains IIASA’s Laixiang Sun, who was part of the Chinagro-I and II project teams. “The State Council is the chief administrative authority in China and it is chaired by the Premier and includes the heads of each governmental ministry and agency.” Alongside the economic and trade impacts on and from the development of China’s agriculture sector, the researchers, which included IIASA’s Günther Fischer, Harrij van Velthuizen, Tatiana Ermolieva, Gui-Ying Cao, Sylvia Prieler, and David Wiberg, explored its social and environmental implications. For example, Chinagro-II pinpoints the areas that suffer from excessive fertilizer application and the resulting environmental damage and waste of the precious resources of nitrogen and phosphorous. “The spatial detail of the model allowed us to identify which areas of China would benefit from low-carbon and organic agricultural technologies,” comments Sun. “Following comments from two Vice Ministers on our report on this issue, it was submitted to the China Meteorological Administration.” Published in IIASA’s Magazine Options – Summer 2012
CUTTING AIR POLLUTION AND GREENHOUSE GASE EMSSIONS SIMULTANEOUSLY
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Presentation Notes
A collaboration between IIASA, included the Chinese Energy Research Institute, Tsinghua University, and other international partners has implemented the GAINS model for India and China. The figure shows that by using a “smart mix” of air pollution control measures and greenhouse gas mitigation measures, China could lower air pollution costs and cut greenhouse gas emissions by 8 percent at no additional cost by 2030. Background: Improving health and livelihoods in China Air pollution is an immediate concern for many countries, damaging both human health and crop production. IIASA research estimates that in China exposure to fine particulate matter (PM 2.5)—one among many air pollutants—is shortening average individual life expectancy by approximately 40 months. Today, China spends about €14 billion annually (0.37 percent of GDP) on cleaning its air. With Chinese economic growth expected to burgeon over the next decades, the country faces growing air pollution and a potentially massive rise in mitigation costs. Today, many industrialized countries use advanced emission control technologies to maintain the permitted levels of air quality. If China were to adopt such technologies, it could, according to IIASA estimates, reduce the negative health impacts of air pollution by 43 percent by 2030 at a cost of 0.63 percent of GDP. However, IIASA research indicates an even smarter approach to cutting air pollution by analyzing measures to cut air pollution alongside measures to cut greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and selecting the most cost-effective. This is made possible by use of the GAINS model, developed at IIASA. Air pollutants are often emitted from the same sources as GHGs and interact with them in the atmosphere. Thus, simultaneously reducing air pollution and greenhouse gases can be advantageous from the human and financial perspectives. IIASA has been working with Chinese partners using GAINS to identify the best combination of strategies for reducing air pollution and GHG emissions and thereby help China cut its future mitigation costs. Use of the GAINS model has identified a "smart mix" of the latest technology and the structural changes needed to China's energy system that will allow China to achieve the same air quality improvements at only 20 percent of the costs of the conventional across-the-board approach, while at the same time improving its population's health and reducing crop losses due to air pollution by 50 percent. Moreover, the use of GAINS will also permit China to cut GHG emissions by 8 percent at no additional cost by 2030 (see figure). As China is the world's biggest emitter of GHGs, limiting its GHGs is a crucial part of any national—and global—strategy to avoid dangerous climate change. IIASA has also worked with partners in India to conduct a similar analysis for India. Further information: Amann, M., et al., 2008, Scenarios for Cost-effective Control of Air Pollution and Greenhouse Gases in China. GAINS ASIA Report.
• Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium
includes IIASA & Chinese partners:
GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS 2000-2100
16
MESSAGE(IIASA)
AIM(NIES)
GCAM(PNNL)
IMAGE(PBL)
Source: van Vuuren, D.P., Edmonds, J., Kainuma, M., Riahi, K., Weyant, J. (eds) (2011). Special Issue: The Representative Concentration Pathways in Climatic Change. Climatic Change, 109(1-2).
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Key Chinese partners in Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC) are: Energy Research Institute, National Development and Reform Commission Tsinghua University One example of IAMC’s work are the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) database that provide greenhouse gas emission and other projections for the forthcoming Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IIASA hosts the database that provides data on greenhouse gas emissions for four different future scenarios that underpin the analysis of thousands of climate change researchers. IIASA also calculated the data for one of the scenarios and PNNL for another: all of which have been developed for the world’s most comprehensive analysis of climate change—the IPCC’s (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) Fifth Assessment Report. The graph shows the carbon emissions from fossil fuels for the four representative concentration pathways (RCPs). All the data for the RCPS is hosted by IIASA, which received 100,000 data queries and downloads a year in 2012. The four RCPs are: RCP8.5 (IIASA/MESSAGE) >8.5 W/m2 in 2100, Rising RCP6.0 (NIES/AIM) ~6 W/m2 at stabilization after 2100 Stabilization without exceeding target RCP4.5 (PNNL/MiniCAM) ~4.5 W/m2 at stabilization after 2100 Stabilization without exceeding target RCP2.6 (PBL/IMAGE) <3 W/m2 in 2100 peak & decline stabilization The special issues are: van Vuuren, D.P., Edmonds, J., Kainuma, M., Riahi, K., Weyant, J. (eds) (2011). Special Issue: The Representative Concentration Pathways in Climatic Change. Climatic Change, 109(1-2).
GLOBAL ENERGY ASSESSMENT AND CHINA
17Source: GEA, 2012: Global Energy Assessment - Toward a Sustainable Future, Cambridge University Press and IIASA
Presenter
Presentation Notes
The Global Energy Assessment (GEA), published in 2012, defines a new global energy policy agenda—one that transforms the way society thinks about, uses, and delivers energy. Coordinated by IIASA and involving over 500 specialists from a range of disciplines, industry groups, and policy areas, GEA research aims to facilitate equitable and sustainable energy services for all, in particular for around three billion people who currently lack access to clean, modern energy. Dr. Fei Feng, Director of the Industrial Economics Research Department and Research Fellow, Development Research Centre of the State Council of China, was a co-chair of GEA. Dr. Kebin He and Zheng Li were Convening Lead Analysts and ten Analyst positions were also held by China. In addition, Professor Dadi Zhou was a council member of the GEA. Findings relevant to China were outlined at the China launch of the GEA by IIASA in Beijing in 2012. Areas of particular interest were the implications of a rapid shift to urbanization and increasing energy densities, see figure as example of findings: The figure from GEA chapter 18: Urban Energy Systems shows the energy use for five alternative urban designs by major general level and type. Blue is Upstream Conversion (losses), green is buildings energy, red is transport energy. The minimum urban energy use estimates refers to implementation of the most efficient building designs and transport options available.
GLOBAL ENERGY ASSESSMENT AND CHINA
18Source: GEA, 2012: Global Energy Assessment - Toward a Sustainable Future, Cambridge University Press and IIASA
• 2009 to date: GEA provides critical input to UN Secretary-General’s Sustainable Energy For All Initiative including defining the aspirational yet feasible objectives: 1. Ensure universal access to modern
energy services2. Double the global rate of
improvements in energy efficiency3. Double the share of renewable
energy in the global energy mix
Presenter
Presentation Notes
The Global Energy Assessment (GEA), published in 2012, defines a new global energy policy agenda—one that transforms the way society thinks about, uses, and delivers energy. Coordinated by IIASA and involving over 500 specialists from a range of disciplines, industry groups, and policy areas, GEA research aims to facilitate equitable and sustainable energy services for all, in particular for around three billion people who currently lack access to clean, modern energy. Dr. Fei Feng, Director of the Industrial Economics Research Department and Research Fellow, Development Research Centre of the State Council of China, was a co‑chair of GEA. Dr. Kebin He and Zheng Li were Convening Lead Analysts, Professor Dadi Zhou was a council member of the GEA. Additionally, twelve researchers from Chinese institutions including the Energy Research Institute, Tsinghua University, North China Electric Power University, Shenhua Cola Liquefaction Research Center, and Renmin University of China were lead or contributing authors to the GEA. Findings relevant to China were outlined at the China launch of the GEA by IIASA in Beijing in 2012. Areas of particular interest were the implications of a rapid shift to urbanization and increasing energy densities; along with the key issues of energy access and the associated health and development issues associated with poor levels of access to clean energy. Outcomes from the GEA include the adoption of GEA’s findings as the three key objectives of the UN Secretary‑General’s Sustainable Energy For All (SE4All) initiative on energy access, energy efficiency, and renewable energy, which in turn have informed the targets of the Sustainable Development Goal on energy.
IIASA has developed research methods to project population by level of education. This equips researchers with the tools to explore the implications of different education policies on a country’s future fertility, life expectancy, migration and population level as well as economic growth, transition to democracy and ability to adapt to climate change. In 2014, IIASA will publish the first projections of educational attainment by age and sex for 195 countries with Oxford University Press. Findings for the China show how different policies over the next few decades could lead to a very different composition of China’s future population.
PROJECTING CHANGING POPULATION IN CHINASUSTAINABILITY
SSP 1: Sustainability This world is making relatively good progress toward sustainability, with ongoing efforts to achieve development goals while reducing resource intensity and fossil fuel dependency. Elements that contribute to this progress are a rapid development of low-income countries, a reduction of inequality (globally and within economies), rapid technology development, and a high level of awareness regarding environmental degradation. Rapid economic growth in low-income countries reduces the number of people below the poverty line. The world is characterized by an open, globalized economy, with rapid technological change directed toward environmentally friendly processes, including clean energy technologies and innovations that enhance agricultural output. Consumption is oriented toward low material growth and energy intensity, with a relatively low level of consumption of animal products. Significant investments in education coincide with low population growth, and both government and private institutions are working together to promote public policy solutions and economic development. The Millennium Development Goals are achieved within the next decade or two, resulting in educated populations with access to safe water, improved sanitation and medical care. Other factors that reduce vulnerability to climate and other global changes include the implementation of stringent policies to control air pollutants and rapid shifts toward universal access to clean and modern energy in the developing world. Population Component of SSP1: Rapid Development This storyline assumes that educational and health investments accelerate the demographic transition, leading to a relatively low world population. This implies assumptions of low mortality and high education for all three country groups. With respect to fertility assumptions the story is more complex. For rich OECD countries the emphasis on quality of life is assumed to make it easier for women to combine work and family, making further fertility declines unlikely. For this reason the medium fertility assumption was chosen for this group of countries. Low fertility assumptions were chosen for all other countries as implied by the assumed rapid continuation of demographic transition. Migration levels were assumed to be medium for all countries under this SSP.
PROJECTING CHANGING POPULATION IN CHINASUSTAINABILITY
IIASA has developed research methods to project population by level of education. This equips researchers with the tools to explore the implications of different education policies on a country’s future fertility, life expectancy, migration and population level as well as economic growth, transition to democracy and ability to adapt to climate change. In 2014, IIASA will publish the first projections of educational attainment by age and sex for 195 countries with Oxford University Press. Findings for the China show how different policies over the next few decades could lead to a very different composition of China’s future population.
PROJECTING CHANGING POPULATION IN CHINAFRAGMENTATION
SSP 3: Fragmentation This narrative is an opposite of sustainability. The world is separated into regions characterized by extreme poverty, with pockets of moderate wealth. In the majority of countries, the struggle is to maintain living standards for rapidly growing populations. Regional blocks of countries have re-emerged with little coordination between them. This is a world failing to achieve global development goals and with little progress in reducing resource intensity and fossil fuel dependency. Environmental concerns such as air pollution are not being addressed. Countries in this scenario focus on achieving energy and food security goals within their own region. The world has de-globalized, and international trade, including energy resource and agricultural markets, is severely restricted. The lack of international cooperation combined with low investments in technology development and education slow down economic growth in high-, middle-, and low-income regions. Population growth in this scenario is high as a result of the education and economic trends, and the growth in urban areas in low-income countries is often in unplanned settlements. Unmitigated emissions are relatively high, driven by the high population growth, use of local energy resources, and slow technological change in the energy sector. Governance and institutions are weak and lack cooperation, consensus, or effective leadership. Investments in human capital are low and inequality is high. A regionalized world leads to reduced trade flows, and institutional development is unfavorable, leaving large numbers of people vulnerable to climate change because of their low adaptive capacity. Policies are oriented towards security, including barriers to trade. Population Component of SSP3: Stalled Development In demographic terms this is a world with a stalled demographic transition. Fertility is assumed to be low in the rich OECD countries and high in the other two country groups. Population growth is assumed to be high in developing countries and low in industrialized countries. Accordingly, this scenario assumes high mortality and low education for all three country groupings. Due to the emphasis on security and barriers to international exchange, migration is assumed to be low for all countries.
PROJECTING CHANGING POPULATION IN CHINAFRAGMENTATION
CAPACITY BUILDING68 Chinese students won places on IIASA’s Young Scientists Summer
Program (YSSP) since 2010
POSTDOCTORAL FELLOWS• Shaohui Zhang (from 2016) is studying the co-benefits of energy efficiency measures and air
pollution control options in China’s industrial sectors at national and provincial scales.• Fei Guo (from 2016) is exploring socio-economic heterogeneity and non-cost factors
influencing consumer energy and appliance choices and demand in China. • Wei Liu (2012 to 2014): How changing land use affects ecosystem service provision and
natural hazard vulnerability in Wolong Nature Reserve in China. (13 journal articles). • Xiaojie Chen (2010-2012): Focused on evolutionary dynamics in biological and social
systems, especially the emergence and stability of cooperation in social networks, using evolutionary game theory and adaptive dynamics. (16 journal articles).
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Postdoctoral researchers at IIASA work in a rich international scientific environment alongside scientists from many different countries and disciplines. The Institute’s research community helps its postdoctoral researchers to develop their research from fresh angles, to publish widely in journal articles, and to establish their own global network of collaborators. Three postdoctoral fellows from China have participated in the program since 2008: Shaohui Zhang (from 2016) is studying the co-benefits of energy efficiency measures and air pollution control options in China’s industrial sectors at national and provincial scales. (PhD in Science, Technology, and Environmental Policy from Utrecht University, Netherlands) Fei Guo (from 2016) is exploring socio-economic heterogeneity and non-cost factors influencing consumer energy and appliance choices and demand in China, as understanding consumer decisions is a crucial component for bottom-up type energy policy modelling. (PhD in Energy and Environmental Policy from the University of Delaware, USA). Wei Liu (2012-2014), originally from China, is developing models and scenarios to investigate integrated adaptive management of complex socio-ecological systems, with a focus on how changing land use affects ecosystem service provision and natural hazard vulnerability in Wolong Nature Reserve in China. His research topics include spatiotemporal dynamics of ecosystem service trade-off and synergy, multi-scale disaster resilience in complex socio-ecological systems, and integrated assessment of conservation policies. (PhD in wildlife conservation and wildland management from Michigan State University). Xiaojie Chen (2010-2012), focused on evolutionary dynamics in biological and social systems, especially the emergence and stability of cooperation in social networks, using evolutionary game theory and adaptive dynamics. (PhD in Dynamics and Control of Complex Systems (2011) from Peking University, China).
FURTHER INFORMATION
IIASA and Chinawww.iiasa.ac.at/china
National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) www.nsfc.gov.cn
