iiasa emissions impacts

8/8/2019 IIASA Emissions Impacts

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International Institute forApplied Systems AnalysisSchlossplatz 1A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria

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E-mail: [email protected]: www.iiasa.ac.at

Emissions of Air Pollutantsfor the World Energy Outlook

2010 Energy Scenarios

Final Report

Janusz Cofala, Peter Rafaj, Wolfgang Schpp,

Zbigniew Klimont, Jens Borken-Kleefeld and Markus Amann

Submitted to the

International Energy Agency, Paris, France

under Contract for Services between IEA and IIASA(signed on 5 March 2010)

IIASA Contract No. 10-112

September 2010

This paper reports on work of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis and has received only

limited review. Views or opinions expressed in this report do not necessarily represent those of the Institute,its National Member Organizations, or other organizations sponsoring the work.


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Glossary of terms used in this report

CLRTAP UN/ECE Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution

CO2 Carbon dioxide

GAINS Greenhouse gas - Air pollution INteractions and Synergies model

IEA International Energy Agency

IIASA International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

NEC National Emission Ceilings Directive

NOx Nitrogen oxides

PM2.5 Fine particles with an aerodynamic diameter of less than 2.5 m

RAINS Regional Air Pollution Information and Simulation model

OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and DevelopmentSNAP Selected Nomenclature for Air Pollutants; Sector aggregation used in the CORINAIR

emission inventory system

SO2 Sulphur dioxide

UNEP United Nations Environment Programme

WEM World Energy Model

WHO World Health Organization

YOLL Years of life lost attributable to the PM2.5 exposure from anthropogenic sources


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Table of Contents

Abstract - vii -

1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................. - 1 -

2 Activity projections .................................................................................................................... - 2 -

3 Emission projections ................................................................................................................... - 3 -

3.1 Assumptions about emission control policies .................................................................... - 3 -

3.2 Current Policies Scenario ................................................................................................... - 4 -

3.3 New Policies Scenario ..................................................................................................... - 14 -

3.4 450 Scenario ..................................................................................................................... - 24 -

3.5 Comparison of emissions ................................................................................................. - 34 -

4 Air pollution control costs ........................................................................................................ - 36 -

5 Health impacts .......................................................................................................................... - 43 -

6 Summary and conclusions ........................................................................................................ - 45 -

Appendix 1: Breakdown of world regions


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Abstract

This report examines global emissions of major air pollutants (SO2, NOx, PM2.5) resulting from

energy scenarios developed for the World Energy Outlook 2010 (OECD/IEA, 2010). Estimatesinclude emissions for 25 regions according to the aggregation used in the IEA World Energy Model

(WEM). Emissions have been estimated using theIIASA GAINS model.

The 2010 Outlook discusses three energy pathways for the next 30 years. The Current Policies

Scenario reflects all policies currently enforced (as of mid-2010), but no new policies after the present.

The 450 Scenario assumes - up to 2020 implementation of the Copenhagen Accord in its most

ambitious form. It also assumes that all fossil fuel subsidies are phased out. After 2020 the 450

Scenario assumes that policies are implemented to achieve emissions cuts compatible with long-term

temperature increases of no more than 2o

C. The last scenario considered is the so-called New Policies

Scenario, which simulates implementation of the less ambitious end of the Copenhagen Accord

pledges, and planned fossil fuel subsidy removal. These pathways were implemented into the GAINS

model. Next, emissions of air pollutants were calculated. Calculations take into account the current air

pollution control legislation and policies in each country or region as adopted or in the pipeline by

mid-2010. Presented in this report estimates do not include emissions from international shipping as

well as cruising emissions from aviation. They also do not include emissions from biomass burning

(deforestation, savannah burning, and vegetation fires).

In 2005, world emissions of SO2 from sources covered in this report were about 96 million tons.

OECD countries contributed 29 percent of this total. Implementation of pollution controls for the

Current Policies Scenario causes an 11 percent decrease in world emissions of SO2 in 2020 compared

with 2005. This is a combined result of more than halving of emissions from OECD countries,increase in China and India, and a decrease in Russia, South Africa, and Middle East. After 2020

emissions from the non-OECD countries start to rise, which causes an increase of world emissions by

about five million tons until 2035. The corresponding world emissions of NOx are: 86 million tons in

2005 (of which 43 percent originated from the OECD countries), 11 percent decrease until 2020 and

next increase until 2035 by about 15 million tons. Emissions of PM2.5 (38.2 million tons in 2005) are

dominated by the sources from non-OECD countries90 percent of total. In the period 2020 to 2035

the world emissions are by up to seven percent higher, which is again due to the increase of emissions

from the non-OECD countries.

The 450 Scenario causes an important reduction in emissions of air pollutants. In 2035 the emissions

of SO2 are one third lower than in the Current Policies case. Emissions of NOx decrease by 27 percent

and those of PM2.5 by eight percent. However, the emissions of PM2.5 in the OECD countries

increase by 19 percent, which is due to the growth in use of biomass as household fuel. Emissions for

the New Policies scenario lie between those for the Current Policies and the 450 scenarios.

Costs of the air pollution controls were in 2005 about 157billion /a1. Until 2035 these costs increase

in the Current Policies Scenario by a factor of three, which is due to higher activity levels and

increasing stringency of controls. In 2035, 64 percent of the total control costs are the expenditures on

1 All costs are calculated in 2005 using international prices of pollution control equipment and four percent real

interest rate.
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reducing emissions from road transport. The 450 Scenario brings 23 percent cost savings in 2035

compared with the Current Policies case.

The Study also estimated health impacts of air pollution in Europe, China and India in terms of life

years lost (YOLL) attributable to the exposure from anthropogenic emissions of PM2.5. PM

concentrations as in 2005 cause a loss of about 1.9 billion life-years

2

. This estimate is dominated byimpacts in China and India. The Current Policies Scenario implies an increase of the YOLL indicator

in 2035 by about 70 percent to 3.2 billion. Decrease of PM concentrations as in the 450 Scenario in

2035 saves more than seven hundred million life-years.

Lower impact indicators and lower air pollution control costs in the scenarios with more active climate

policies, and in particular in the 450 Scenario, clearly demonstrate important co-benefits of climate

measures for air pollution.

2 The estimates do not include exposure to indoor air pollution.


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1 Introduction

This report describes the work executed by IIASA based on a contract with the International Energy

Agency (IEA) to provide a set of emission trends that correspond to the World Energy Model analysis

developed by the IEA for the World Energy Outlook 2010 (OECD/IEA, 2010). IIASA calculated

emissions of major air pollutants: SO2, NOx, and PM2.5 for three energy scenarios, namely:

The Current Policies Scenario

The New Policies Scenario and

The 450 Scenario.

A short characterization of these scenarios is included in section 2. The analysis employs as the central

analytical tool theIIASA GAINS model. Methodology for air pollution calculations within GAINS isdescribed in Amann, 2004. Estimates include emissions for 25 regions according to the aggregation

used in the IEA World Energy Model. The national assessment does not cover the emissions from

international shipping as well as cruising emissions from aviation. Also emissions from biomass

burning (deforestation, savannah burning, and vegetation fires) are not included in national totals.

The remainder of this report is organized as follows: Section 2 summarizes activity scenarios included

in the analysis. It also explains assumptions about emission control legislation for individual

countries/country groups. Section 3 presents emission projections by country group, economic sector

and by fuel. In Section 4 emission control costs are shown. Section 5 discusses health impacts of the

scenarios. Conclusions are drawn in Section 6.
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2 Activity projections

The 2010 World Energy Outlook discusses three energy pathways for the next 25 years. The Current

Policies Scenario reflects all policies currently enforced (i.e., as of mid-2010), but no new policies

after the present. The 450 Scenario assumes - up to 2020 implementation of the Copenhagen Accord

in its most ambitious form. It also assumes that all fossil fuel subsidies are phased out. After 2020 the

450 Scenario assumes that policies are implemented to achieve emissions cuts compatible with long-

term temperature increases of no more than 2o

C. The last scenario considered is the so-called New

Policies Scenario, which simulates implementation of the less ambitious end of the Copenhagen

Accord pledges, and planned fossil fuel subsidy removal.

All three scenarios were developed with the World Energy Model (WEM) and include 25 world

regions. Regions are either individual countries or groups of countries with similar policies andemission characteristics. Countries that are major energy consumers (and CO2 emitters) are treated on

an individual basis. Coverage of each region is explained in Appendix 1. The scenarios provide details

for the period up to 2035 with focus on 2020, which is essential for the decisions about the mid-term

development of the world energy system and the climate-negotiations process.

The Current Policies Scenario reflects unchanged governmental energy and climate policies. This

scenario is unsustainable and puts the globe on a path to double the CO2 concentrations, which might

result in an increase of global average temperature by up to 6o

C with all negative impacts of such an

increase. The alternative scenarios assume implementation of measures to curb down the emissions of

energy-related emissions of CO2. Details on energy consumption structure for the WEO 2010 energy

scenarios, together with major macroeconomic characteristics (population, GDP and value added by

major economic sector) have been provided to IIASA by the IEA. Next, they have been implemented

into GAINS using a special interface routine. Missing information has been completed based on

scenarios already available in GAINS. In particular, this included development of national energy

scenarios for countries that are aggregated into a country group within the WEM, derivation of sector-

specific data for transport (vehicle-kilometres, vehicle numbers) and estimation of activities causing

process emissions (production of energy-intensive products, agricultural activities, storage and

handling of materials, waste treatment, etc.). Projections of activities for process sector have been

developed in collaboration with national experts. They remain the same for all three scenarios. This

means, that for all countries no changes in production structure of energy-intensive commodities and

no shift from OECD countries to the developing world was assumed.


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3 Emission projections

3.1 Assumptions about emission control policies

Calculation of emissions of air pollutants has been performed assuming in each country the current air

pollution control policies, i.e., policies that were in force or in the final stage of legislative process as

of mid-2010. In particular, for Europe all emission limit values and fuel quality standards have been

included, as used in the analysis for the revision of the National Emission Ceilings (NEC) Directive -

Amann et al., 2008. For other countries policies have been assessed based on available literature

(compare Cofala et al., 2007). They take into account recent updates done in collaboration with

national expert teams (Klimont, 2009). In addition, assumptions about emission controls in the power

plant sector have been cross-checked with detailed information from the database on world coal fired

power plants (IEA CCC, 2010). Important role in air pollution abatement is played by controlling

emissions from mobile sources. Again, for Europe the same assumptions have been made as for the

modelling work for the revision of the NEC Directive. For other countries information from DieselNet,

2010 and national sources was used.

Compared with WEO 2009, IIASA has updated emission estimates for 2005 for Europe based on a

review organized within the revision of the Gothenburg Protocol to the Convention on Long-range

Transboundary Air Pollution (CLRTAP) and the revision of the EU National Emission Ceilings

Directive3. For other countries Emission factors and control legislation for other countries were

updated based on literature sources and submissions of national experts who collaborate with IIASA.

Updates were also done in result of IIASAs participation in the development of the database on theIPCC Representative Concentration Pathways

4, as well as work on global black and organic carbon

assessment for the UNEP (report in preparation). For Europe IIASA has updated the whole modelling

framework within the LIFE EC4MACS Project (Amann et al., 2010). Also new assumptions on

adoption of emission limit values for large combustion plants and limits of sulphur content in liquid

fuels were adopted for countries that have joined the European Energy Community5.

Countries - members of the CLRTAP submit annually emission inventories to Convention authorities.

They also revise historic data on a regular basis. Newer submissions for historic years differ in some

cases from the old ones even by five to ten percent. This is the reason why historic emissions for some

countries differ from the WEO 2009 assessment. The update of input data to GAINS also included a

revision of emission factors for diesel cars and trucks, for which emissions in real operating conditions

importantly differ from emission factors derived from test cycles. This revision was based on results of

research projects like ARTEMIS and HBEFA. Data used by IIASA were provided by the COPERT 4

(v7.1) model6.

3 http://gains.iiasa.ac.at/index.php/policyapplications/gothenburg-protocol-revision

4 http://www.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/tnt/RcpDb/dsd?Action=htmlpage&page=welcome

5http://www.energy-community.org/portal/page/portal/ENC_HOME

6http://lat.eng.auth.gr/copert/files/COPERT4_v7_1.pdf
http://gains.iiasa.ac.at/index.php/policyapplications/gothenburg-protocol-revisionhttp://www.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/tnt/RcpDb/dsd?Action=htmlpage&page=welcomehttp://www.energy-community.org/portal/page/portal/ENC_HOMEhttp://www.energy-community.org/portal/page/portal/ENC_HOMEhttp://www.energy-community.org/portal/page/portal/ENC_HOMEhttp://lat.eng.auth.gr/copert/files/COPERT4_v7_1.pdfhttp://lat.eng.auth.gr/copert/files/COPERT4_v7_1.pdfhttp://lat.eng.auth.gr/copert/files/COPERT4_v7_1.pdfhttp://lat.eng.auth.gr/copert/files/COPERT4_v7_1.pdfhttp://www.energy-community.org/portal/page/portal/ENC_HOMEhttp://www.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/tnt/RcpDb/dsd?Action=htmlpage&page=welcomehttp://gains.iiasa.ac.at/index.php/policyapplications/gothenburg-protocol-revision


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3.2 Current Policies Scenario

Emissions of SO2, NOx and PM2.5by country group up to 2035 for the Current Policies Scenario are

presented in Table 3.1 to Table 3.3. Emissions by SNAP sector, separated by OECD and non-OECD

countries, can be found in Table 3.4 to Table 3.6. Values for 2008 have been derived through

interpolation.

In 2005, world emissions of SO2 were about 96 million tons. OECD countries contributed 29 percent

to this total. Dominating sources are power plants and industrial emissions. Implementation of air

pollution controls and structural changes in energy consumption patterns as in the Current Policies

Scenario causes an 11 percent decrease in world emissions of SO2 emissions in 2020 compared with

2005. This is a combined effect of the decrease of emissions from the OECD region (minus 53

percent) and six percent increase from the rest of the world. Growth of emissions in non-OECD

countries in the period 2005 2020 is limited to only six percent because of implementation of

emission control measures according to the current legislation assumptions. However, after 2020 the

emissions in non-OECD countries increase and are in 2035 six million tons higher than in 2020. This

is mainly due to higher coal consumption in poorly controlled power plants in the developing world,

and in particular in Southeast Asia.

According to the GAINS assessment, world emissions of NOx were about 86 million tons in 2005, of

which 43 percent originated from the OECD countries. Road transport was responsible for about 35

percent of NOx emissions. Until 2020 the emissions decrease by 11 percent, due to more than 50

percent decrease of emissions form the OECD countries and a 17 percent increase from the rest of the

world. It needs to be stressed that majority of non-OECD countries are currently implementingemission standards on road transport sources, which importantly slows down the pace of increase of

NOx emissions. After 2020 the world emissions increase, and are about 15 million tons higher in 2035

than in 2020.

Emissions of PM2.5 (38.2 million tons in 2005) are dominated by the sources from non-OECD

countries 90 percent of total. On a global scale, the highest contributors are residential and

commercial combustion (45 percent of total) and industrial emissions (both: combustion-related and

process emissions - 27 percent). In 2020 and 2035 the world emissions are higher by five and seven

percent, respectively. This relatively low increase of emissions - in spite of high increase in total

energy consumption - is due to the changes in fuel use patterns and better controls on sources in the

power plant sector, industry, and road transport.

Table 3.7 to Table 3.9 demonstrate emissions by country group and by fuel. Coal was responsible for

about 60 percent of world emissions of SO2 in 2005. Other important contributors were: oil use and the

process (other sources) sector - 20 and 18 percent, respectively. Whereas in the OECD countries the

emissions from coal decrease due to stringent emission limit values, the coal-related SO2 emissions for

the non-OECD countries increase up to 2035 by nearly 10 million tons. In case of NOx, oil contributed

54 percent to world emissions in 2005, followed by coal (22 percent) and gas (11 percent). In the

projection period the emissions from oil decrease, mainly due to better controls on transport sources.

Emissions from other fuels, in particular from coal, increase. PM2.5 emissions are dominated by

biomass fuels (41 percent) and process sources (40 percent of world emissions in 2005). The increaseof PM2.5 emissions for the projection period is mainly caused by higher coal use in non-OECD


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countries. Characteristic are also small changes over time in the emissions from biomass and

processes.

Table 3.1: Emissions of SO2 by country group7

in the Current Policies Scenario, thousand tons/year

WEM region 2005 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

US 13,793 9,985 7,749 5,633 4,498 3,893 3,765 3,721

Canada 2,187 1,965 1,819 1,631 1,594 1,579 1,566 1,557

Mexico 1,794 1,166 724 554 538 486 464 457

Japan 753 637 547 541 526 521 520 517

Korea 555 542 527 538 522 502 488 475

AUNZ 1,438 1,481 1,428 1,408 1,408 1,417 1,422 1,403

OE4 1,194 1,439 1,436 1,381 1,510 1,627 1,698 1,747

EUG4 2,005 1,537 1,240 1,167 1,058 919 877 866

EUO15 3,931 2,661 1,726 1,508 1,324 1,280 1,238 1,196

EU8 1,903 1,353 875 344 332 322 322 318

ETEnonEU 2,214 2,426 2,064 2,204 1,431 1,399 1,548 1,559Russia 6,268 6,309 5,866 4,992 4,200 4,413 4,616 4,838

Caspian 2,417 2,565 2,724 3,001 3,220 3,333 3,396 3,440

RATE 45 38 32 35 37 32 26 27

China 31,567 34,606 34,757 36,816 35,182 32,251 30,088 31,551

India 5,908 7,396 7,857 9,542 11,301 12,944 14,887 17,399

Indonesia 1,077 1,066 1,078 1,061 1,145 1,239 1,339 1,447

ASEAN9 1,702 1,503 1,434 1,412 1,502 1,608 1,767 1,964

ODA 1,878 1,953 2,073 2,386 2,956 3,382 3,998 4,156

Brazil 1,069 1,136 1,155 1,230 1,245 1,289 1,357 1,396

OLAM 2,319 2,508 2,440 2,346 2,164 2,241 2,302 2,314

NAFR 1,030 1,018 941 768 757 782 946 1,098

South Africa 2,122 1,980 1,775 1,443 1,188 1,079 986 998

OAFR 1,657 2,002 2,147 1,682 1,495 1,469 1,460 1,488

ME 4,742 4,559 4,323 4,176 3,965 3,776 3,932 4,091

OECD 27,650 21,412 17,194 14,360 12,977 12,223 12,038 11,939

Non-OECD 67,918 72,418 71,542 73,438 72,119 71,559 72,970 78,085

World 95,569 93,830 88,736 87,797 85,096 83,782 85,007 90,024

7 Aggregation of countries to the WEO 2010 groups is explained in Appendix 1


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Table 3.2: Emissions of NOx by country group in the Current Policies Scenario, thousand tons/year

WEM region 2005 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

US 17,203 14,379 12,370 9,336 7,637 6,711 6,407 6,568

Canada 1,586 1,398 1,279 1,105 993 944 958 993Mexico 1,447 1,398 1,270 1,130 1,080 1,136 1,230 1,328

Japan 2,289 1,899 1,540 1,238 977 832 787 773

Korea 1,439 1,369 1,291 1,185 980 879 811 789

AUNZ 1,304 1,289 1,194 1,076 987 969 966 991

OE4 1,015 1,135 1,058 1,007 1,016 1,047 1,123 1,166

EUG4 5,367 4,690 4,229 3,553 2,754 2,405 2,265 2,274

EUO15 4,991 4,247 3,496 2,977 2,401 2,090 1,948 1,992

EU8 696 599 506 438 374 339 324 330

ETEnonEU 1,470 1,433 1,290 1,193 1,054 1,025 1,077 1,115

Russia 5,047 4,938 4,524 4,063 3,593 3,307 3,326 3,526

Caspian 1,134 1,321 1,371 1,565 1,691 1,902 2,033 2,169

RATE 68 76 77 93 105 113 116 131China 15,770 18,923 20,358 22,175 22,315 22,784 23,947 26,548

India 3,946 4,518 4,635 5,142 6,215 7,550 9,333 12,198

Indonesia 1,710 1,705 1,733 1,651 1,606 1,756 1,987 2,208

ASEAN9 2,930 2,834 2,724 2,750 2,945 3,217 3,624 4,058

ODA 1,837 1,853 1,888 2,094 2,321 2,640 3,052 3,480

Brazil 2,353 2,445 2,450 2,604 2,630 2,628 2,828 3,051

OLAM 3,310 3,487 3,364 3,303 3,067 3,214 3,474 3,660

NAFR 1,378 1,460 1,479 1,485 1,573 1,684 1,864 1,985

South Africa 1,284 1,300 1,229 1,157 1,071 1,098 1,158 1,249

OAFR 1,775 1,865 1,915 1,970 1,986 2,085 2,179 2,346

ME 4,183 4,261 4,124 4,416 4,641 5,018 5,589 5,937

OECD 36,641 31,803 27,727 22,607 18,825 17,012 16,496 16,874

Non-OECD 48,892 53,017 53,668 56,098 57,186 60,358 65,911 73,992

World 85,533 84,820 81,395 78,705 76,011 77,370 82,407 90,866


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Table 3.3: Emissions of PM2.5 by country group in the Current Policies Scenario, thousand tons/year

WEM region 2005 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

US 1,111 990 920 850 797 759 749 790

Canada 161 145 137 128 119 113 112 115Mexico 449 431 406 393 394 404 417 429

Japan 195 169 149 138 126 119 116 115

Korea 177 174 170 169 164 161 159 158

AUNZ 181 180 171 167 161 155 155 158

OE4 348 416 420 432 457 493 510 513

EUG4 643 597 557 501 466 443 451 464

EUO15 703 656 581 534 507 491 494 508

EU8 263 247 219 214 211 210 209 212

ETEnonEU 573 638 552 561 526 537 603 610

Russia 1,332 1,372 1,303 1,358 1,341 1,361 1,390 1,419

Caspian 178 183 190 208 226 240 253 259

RATE 27 28 30 35 40 41 21 21China 12,463 13,883 14,265 13,437 12,370 11,586 10,923 11,020

India 5,066 5,488 5,437 5,629 5,854 6,091 6,352 6,753

Indonesia 1,424 1,443 1,485 1,505 1,533 1,559 1,575 1,603

ASEAN9 1,814 1,800 1,852 1,893 1,913 1,901 1,901 1,947

ODA 2,087 2,106 2,166 2,340 2,492 2,696 2,887 2,983

Brazil 916 952 923 935 948 910 869 873

OLAM 1,269 1,310 1,251 1,251 1,243 1,239 1,254 1,258

NAFR 481 519 516 522 531 494 464 473

South Africa 379 405 404 410 410 400 391 390

OAFR 5,252 5,724 5,850 6,198 6,505 6,736 6,897 6,984

ME 721 756 770 800 817 761 716 729

OECD 3,968 3,759 3,511 3,312 3,191 3,138 3,164 3,249

Non-OECD 34,247 36,855 37,211 37,295 36,961 36,763 36,704 37,536

World 38,215 40,614 40,722 40,607 40,152 39,901 39,867 40,785


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Table 3.4: Emissions of SO2 by SNAP sector for the Current Policies Scenario, thousand tons/year

OECD countries

SNAP sector 2005 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

1: Power generation 17,624 10,902 8,755 6,170 4,830 4,125 3,938 3,9162: Domestic 1,377 1,272 1,021 961 916 873 823 781

3: Industrial combust. 3,650 3,957 3,177 3,197 3,200 3,199 3,205 3,157

4: Industrial processes 4,008 4,669 3,749 3,608 3,609 3,673 3,718 3,718

5: Fuel extraction 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

6: Solvents 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

7: Road traffic 295 63 50 35 31 31 30 33

8: Off-road sources 653 492 395 342 345 279 278 290

9: Waste management 20 29 23 23 22 21 21 21

10: Agriculture 23 29 23 23 23 22 24 24

Sum 27,650 21,412 17,194 14,360 12,977 12,223 12,038 11,939

Non-OECD countries

SNAP sector 2005 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

1: Power generation 38,641 37,133 36,684 37,453 35,801 34,255 34,413 38,517

2: Domestic 4,437 4,983 4,923 5,116 5,107 4,982 4,829 4,667




6: Solvents 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

7: Road traffic 892 424 419 358 349 426 513 636

8: Off-road sources 1,014 964 952 1,048 1,115 1,165 1,237 1,431


10: Agriculture 133 143 141 149 155 162 170 170Sum 67,918 72,418 71,542 73,438 72,119 71,559 72,970 78,085

World

SNAP sector 2005 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035


2: Domestic 5,813 6,255 5,944 6,078 6,023 5,855 5,652 5,448




6: Solvents 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

7: Road traffic 1,188 487 469 393 380 457 544 669

8: Off-road sources 1,667 1,455 1,347 1,390 1,459 1,444 1,516 1,721


10: Agriculture 156 172 164 172 178 184 194 194

Sum 95,569 93,830 88,736 87,797 85,096 83,782 85,007 90,024


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Table 3.5: Emissions of NOx by SNAP sector for the Current Policies Scenario, thousand tons/year

OECD countries

SNAP sector 2005 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

1: Power generation 9,293 7,490 6,530 5,423 4,586 4,329 4,272 4,3282: Domestic 1,977 2,104 1,835 1,834 1,853 1,888 1,925 1,963


4: Industrial processes 1,004 1,095 955 935 928 914 896 896


6: Solvents 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

7: Road traffic 14,908 11,215 9,778 6,095 3,687 2,622 2,382 2,609

8: Off-road sources 5,244 5,363 4,676 4,222 3,646 3,099 2,806 2,888


10: Agriculture 57 65 56 56 54 52 55 55

Sum 36,641 31,803 27,727 22,607 18,825 17,012 16,496 16,874

Non-OECD countries

SNAP sector 2005 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035


2: Domestic 2,953 3,221 3,261 3,401 3,479 3,525 3,543 3,553




6: Solvents 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

7: Road traffic 14,739 13,787 13,956 12,860 12,171 12,883 14,731 17,663

8: Off-road sources 7,298 8,024 8,123 8,634 8,833 9,462 10,588 12,918


10: Agriculture 207 220 223 239 252 266 283 283Sum 48,892 53,017 53,668 56,098 57,186 60,358 65,911 73,992

World

SNAP sector 2005 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035


2: Domestic 4,931 5,326 5,096 5,236 5,332 5,412 5,468 5,516




6: Solvents 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

7: Road traffic 29,647 25,002 23,734 18,956 15,858 15,504 17,112 20,272

8: Off-road sources 12,541 13,388 12,799 12,856 12,479 12,561 13,394 15,806


10: Agriculture 263 285 279 294 306 318 338 338

Sum 85,533 84,820 81,395 78,705 76,011 77,370 82,407 90,866


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Table 3.6: Emissions of PM2.5 by SNAP sector for the Current Policies Scenario, thousand tons/year

OECD countries

SNAP sector 2005 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

1: Power generation 288 214 200 191 198 206 207 2062: Domestic 1,103 1,142 1,067 1,049 1,029 1,019 1,026 1,082

3: Industrial combust. 360 328 306 314 313 327 340 341

4: Industrial processes 475 467 436 443 456 468 477 477

5: Fuel extraction 16 18 16 17 17 18 18 18

6: Solvents 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

7: Road traffic 608 455 425 296 233 214 219 241

8: Off-road sources 428 394 368 312 257 210 189 196


10: Agriculture 381 405 378 378 376 368 386 386

Sum 3,968 3,759 3,511 3,312 3,191 3,138 3,164 3,249

Non-OECD countries

SNAP sector 2005 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035


2: Domestic 15,864 16,697 16,858 17,018 16,851 16,491 15,952 15,719



5: Fuel extraction 56 67 68 73 77 86 95 95

6: Solvents 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

7: Road traffic 980 828 836 676 627 683 793 984

8: Off-road sources 683 714 721 737 709 745 837 1,001

9: Waste management 2,127 2,088 2,108 2,145 2,161 2,150 2,129 2,129

10: Agriculture 3,049 3,161 3,192 3,330 3,453 3,576 3,701 3,701Sum 34,247 36,855 37,211 37,295 36,961 36,763 36,704 37,536

World

SNAP sector 2005 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035


2: Domestic 16,967 17,839 17,925 18,066 17,880 17,511 16,978 16,801



5: Fuel extraction 72 85 84 89 94 104 114 114

6: Solvents 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

7: Road traffic 1,588 1,283 1,261 971 860 897 1,012 1,225

8: Off-road sources 1,111 1,108 1,089 1,049 966 955 1,026 1,196

9: Waste management 2,435 2,424 2,422 2,459 2,472 2,458 2,432 2,432

10: Agriculture 3,430 3,566 3,570 3,708 3,830 3,945 4,087 4,087

Sum 38,215 40,614 40,722 40,607 40,152 39,901 39,867 40,785


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Table 3.7: Emissions of SO2 by fuel for the Current Policies Scenario, thousand tons/year

OECD

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Coal 16,464 9,292 6,902 5,577 4,853 4,591 4,458

Oil 6,289 3,309 2,931 2,799 2,616 2,547 2,512Gas 38 35 38 39 40 41 42

Biomass 330 349 406 463 524 591 659

Other sources 4,529 4,209 4,083 4,099 4,190 4,267 4,267

Total 27,650 17,194 14,360 12,977 12,223 12,038 11,939

Non-OECD

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Coal 40,526 42,795 46,177 45,831 44,999 45,703 50,180

Oil 13,003 12,553 12,593 12,655 12,585 12,787 13,074

Gas 181 223 274 321 372 436 503Biomass 1,767 1,843 1,923 1,989 2,102 2,296 2,581

Other sources 12,442 14,128 12,471 11,323 11,501 11,748 11,748

Total 67,918 71,542 73,438 72,119 71,559 72,970 78,085

World

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Coal 56,991 52,087 53,078 51,407 49,853 50,295 54,638

Oil 19,292 15,863 15,523 15,455 15,201 15,333 15,586

Gas 219 258 312 360 412 477 545

Biomass 2,097 2,191 2,329 2,452 2,625 2,887 3,240

Other sources 16,970 18,337 16,555 15,422 15,691 16,015 16,015

Total 95,569 88,736 87,797 85,096 83,782 85,007 90,024


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Table 3.8: Emissions of NOx by fuel for the Current Policies Scenario, thousand tons/year

OECD

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Coal 6,816 4,628 3,606 2,835 2,559 2,406 2,309

Oil 22,112 15,903 11,676 8,592 6,891 6,303 6,578Gas 4,592 4,248 4,241 4,194 4,222 4,285 4,372

Biomass 751 775 905 985 1,069 1,166 1,278

Other sources 2,370 2,173 2,179 2,218 2,272 2,336 2,336

Total 36,641 27,727 22,607 18,825 17,012 16,496 16,874

Non-OECD

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Coal 11,993 15,351 17,791 19,104 20,263 21,891 24,030

Oil 24,053 24,060 23,604 23,152 24,474 27,405 32,646

Gas 4,655 4,573 4,684 4,662 4,943 5,438 6,015Biomass 2,365 2,610 2,750 2,852 2,936 3,033 3,157

Other sources 5,825 7,074 7,269 7,415 7,742 8,144 8,144

Total 48,892 53,668 56,098 57,186 60,358 65,911 73,992

World

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Coal 18,809 19,979 21,397 21,940 22,822 24,297 26,339

Oil 46,165 39,963 35,280 31,744 31,364 33,708 39,224

Gas 9,247 8,821 8,925 8,857 9,165 9,723 10,387

Biomass 3,116 3,384 3,655 3,837 4,005 4,199 4,436

Other sources 8,195 9,248 9,448 9,633 10,014 10,480 10,480

Total 85,533 81,395 78,705 76,011 77,370 82,407 90,866


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Table 3.9: Emissions of PM2.5 by fuel for the Current Policies Scenario, thousand tons/year

OECD

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Coal 418 412 402 401 390 379 369

Oil 957 697 498 364 285 256 266Gas 28 21 22 23 25 27 30

Biomass 986 881 872 865 874 893 959

Other sources 1,578 1,501 1,518 1,537 1,564 1,609 1,626

Total 3,968 3,511 3,312 3,191 3,138 3,163 3,249

0 0

Non-OECD

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Coal 4,098 4,917 5,604 5,966 6,360 6,863 7,486

Oil 1,671 1,545 1,387 1,293 1,363 1,536 1,848

Gas 59 67 76 85 95 106 118Biomass 14,800 15,708 15,784 15,595 15,146 14,551 14,395

Other sources 13,619 14,974 14,443 14,021 13,799 13,648 13,690

Total 34,247 37,211 37,295 36,961 36,763 36,704 37,536

World

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Coal 4,516 5,329 6,006 6,368 6,750 7,242 7,855

Oil 2,628 2,242 1,884 1,658 1,648 1,792 2,114

Gas 87 88 99 108 120 133 148

Biomass 15,786 16,589 16,656 16,460 16,021 15,444 15,353

Other sources 15,198 16,475 15,961 15,558 15,363 15,256 15,316

Total 38,215 40,722 40,607 40,152 39,901 39,867 40,785


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3.3 New Policies Scenario

Emissions for the New Policies Scenario by country group are shown in Table 3.10 to Table 3.12.

Emissions by SNAP sector are presented in Table 3.13 to Table 3.15. In this scenario not only energy-

related CO2 emissions are reduced but also emissions of air pollutants decrease. By 2035, the SO2

emissions are nearly 14 million tons (or 15 percent) lower than in the Current Policies Scenario.

Majority of that reduction (12 million tons) occurs in non-OECD countries. In case of NOx, the

emissions are 11 percent lower. In absolute terms this means 10 million tons of NO x less, of which 8.4

million tons is due to lower emissions from non-OECD countries. Emissions decrease up to 2020 is

lower because of shorter period available for implementation of structural measures in the world

energy system.

Also PM2.5 emissions decrease in the New Policies Scenario compared with the Current Policies case.

In 2035 they are 1.4 million tons (or 3.4 percent) lower. It is characteristic, that the PM2.5 emissions

from the OECD region are slightly higher (by 0.2 million tons) in this scenario, which is due to higher

use of biomass fuels in the residential sector. Emissions from the non-OECD countries decrease by 1.6

million tons.

Table 3.16 to Table 3.18 present the emissions by fuel, separately for the OECD and non-OECD

country group. Also in this scenario dominating sources of PM2.5 are combustion of biomass fuels

and process emissions.


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Table 3.10: Emissions of SO2 by country group in the New Policies Scenario, thousand tons/year

WEM region 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

US 5,602 4,385 3,658 3,400 3,209

Canada 1,602 1,534 1,504 1,507 1,472Mexico 552 534 470 430 408

Japan 543 525 509 497 482

Korea 534 510 480 456 432

AUNZ 1,364 1,307 1,303 1,295 1,255

OE4 1,373 1,386 1,394 1,424 1,312

EUG4 1,123 965 846 803 770

EUO15 1,499 1,286 1,207 1,151 1,081

EU8 338 312 305 302 296

ETEnonEU 2,141 1,316 1,288 1,388 1,319

Russia 4,954 4,068 4,157 4,312 4,626

Caspian 3,026 3,181 3,265 3,191 3,176

RATE 35 36 31 25 25China 35,939 33,137 29,402 26,411 26,450

India 9,366 10,656 11,625 12,767 14,084

Indonesia 1,045 1,101 1,157 1,214 1,275

ASEAN9 1,358 1,434 1,504 1,617 1,756

ODA 2,233 2,779 3,006 3,353 3,228

Brazil 1,201 1,210 1,240 1,290 1,310

OLAM 2,296 2,058 2,073 2,089 2,061

NAFR 737 642 573 562 566

South Africa 1,413 1,155 1,039 934 925

OAFR 1,650 1,405 1,341 1,288 1,222

ME 4,116 3,795 3,458 3,456 3,524

OECD 14,193 12,432 11,370 10,964 10,421

Non-OECD 71,849 68,286 65,465 64,198 65,842

World 86,042 80,718 76,835 75,162 76,263


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Table 3.11: Emissions of NOx by country group in the New Policies Scenario, thousand tons/year

WEM region 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

US 9,293 7,539 6,511 6,098 6,113

Canada 1,092 967 907 919 939Mexico 1,126 1,070 1,102 1,159 1,218

Japan 1,228 956 795 731 696

Korea 1,169 938 797 689 606

AUNZ 1,047 917 881 859 856

OE4 1,000 995 1,009 1,068 1,088

EUG4 3,496 2,635 2,260 2,091 2,056

EUO15 2,971 2,344 1,981 1,812 1,803

EU8 433 359 319 298 299

ETEnonEU 1,178 1,024 990 1,031 1,047

Russia 4,045 3,549 3,212 3,155 3,258

Caspian 1,565 1,636 1,787 1,853 1,931

RATE 93 103 110 111 124China 21,789 21,290 21,043 21,271 22,743

India 5,015 5,849 6,868 8,264 10,539

Indonesia 1,625 1,545 1,644 1,822 1,991

ASEAN9 2,683 2,842 3,067 3,399 3,752

ODA 2,037 2,200 2,447 2,770 3,095

Brazil 2,589 2,613 2,596 2,775 2,970

OLAM 3,271 2,997 3,077 3,249 3,327

NAFR 1,473 1,540 1,612 1,735 1,798

South Africa 1,138 1,042 1,054 1,094 1,151

OAFR 1,956 1,954 2,024 2,082 2,195

ME 4,339 4,472 4,694 5,076 5,382

OECD 22,422 18,361 16,241 15,426 15,373

Non-OECD 55,230 55,016 56,546 59,986 65,602

World 77,652 73,377 72,787 75,412 80,975


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Table 3.12: Emissions of PM2.5 by country group in the New Policies Scenario, thousand tons/year

WEM region 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

US 871 855 854 892 1,009

Canada 128 121 116 119 129Mexico 394 395 402 413 421

Japan 137 124 115 110 107

Korea 168 163 159 156 154

AUNZ 166 157 153 154 159

OE4 431 447 473 488 477

EUG4 502 471 455 475 504

EUO15 534 507 493 500 521

EU8 213 209 207 206 209

ETEnonEU 557 519 531 596 600

Russia 1,349 1,312 1,306 1,303 1,302

Caspian 206 221 232 236 243

RATE 35 41 43 21 21China 13,372 12,159 11,219 10,341 10,205

India 5,600 5,764 5,917 6,074 6,334

Indonesia 1,505 1,531 1,556 1,570 1,600

ASEAN9 1,878 1,898 1,882 1,874 1,910

ODA 2,306 2,438 2,598 2,720 2,759

Brazil 935 952 917 876 888

OLAM 1,252 1,244 1,240 1,254 1,256

NAFR 521 530 491 459 467

South Africa 406 404 391 380 375

OAFR 6,200 6,512 6,746 6,908 6,994

ME 801 821 767 724 749

OECD 3,332 3,240 3,220 3,308 3,480

Non-OECD 37,136 36,554 36,043 35,542 35,913

World 40,467 39,794 39,263 38,851 39,394


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Table 3.13: Emissions of SO2 by SNAP sector for the New Policies Scenario, thousand tons/year

OECD countries

SNAP sector 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

1: Power generation 6,048 4,392 3,522 3,213 2,8342: Domestic 952 897 837 788 742

3: Industrial combust. 3,165 3,122 2,998 2,910 2,784

4: Industrial processes 3,608 3,609 3,673 3,718 3,718

5: Fuel extraction 0 0 0 0 0

6: Solvents 0 0 0 0 0

7: Road traffic 35 31 30 29 31

8: Off-road sources 339 336 267 261 267

9: Waste management 23 22 21 21 21

10: Agriculture 23 23 22 24 24

Sum 14,193 12,432 11,370 10,964 10,421

Non-OECD countries

SNAP sector 2,015 2,020 2,025 2,030 2,035

1: Power generation 36,124 32,784 29,644 27,961 29,489

2: Domestic 5,106 5,008 4,796 4,504 4,187




6: Solvents 0 0 0 0 0

7: Road traffic 348 330 399 476 585

8: Off-road sources 1,038 1,090 1,122 1,173 1,337


10: Agriculture 149 155 162 170 170Sum 71,849 68,286 65,465 64,198 65,842

World

SNAP sector 2,015 2,020 2,025 2,030 2,035


2: Domestic 6,059 5,905 5,633 5,292 4,929




6: Solvents 0 0 0 0 0

7: Road traffic 383 361 429 505 616

8: Off-road sources 1,377 1,426 1,389 1,434 1,604


10: Agriculture 172 178 184 194 194

Sum 86,042 80,718 76,835 75,162 76,263


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Table 3.14: Emissions of NOx by SNAP sector for the New Policies Scenario, thousand tons/year

OECD countries

SNAP sector 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035


2: Domestic 1,823 1,835 1,860 1,895 1,926

3: Industrial combust. 4,000 4,025 4,026 4,044 3,9884: Industrial processes 935 928 914 896 896


6: Solvents 0 0 0 0 0

7: Road traffic 6,079 3,621 2,508 2,228 2,410

8: Off-road sources 4,187 3,559 2,946 2,594 2,600


10: Agriculture 56 54 52 55 55

Sum 22,422 18,361 16,241 15,426 15,373

Non-OECD countries

SNAP sector 2,015 2,020 2,025 2,030 2,0351: Power generation 14,778 14,673 14,790 15,269 16,147

2: Domestic 3,388 3,439 3,453 3,428 3,393




6: Solvents 0 0 0 0 0

7: Road traffic 12,651 11,795 12,242 13,772 16,416

8: Off-road sources 8,524 8,575 9,011 9,895 11,886


10: Agriculture 239 252 266 283 283

Sum 55,230 55,016 56,546 59,986 65,602

World

SNAP sector 2,015 2,020 2,025 2,030 2,035


2: Domestic 5,211 5,274 5,314 5,324 5,320




6: Solvents 0 0 0 0 0

7: Road traffic 18,730 15,416 14,750 15,999 18,827

8: Off-road sources 12,711 12,134 11,957 12,489 14,486

9: Waste management 352 348 341 333 33310: Agriculture 294 306 318 338 338

Sum 77,652 73,377 72,787 75,412 80,975


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Table 3.16: Emissions of SO2 by fuel for the New Policies Scenario, thousand tons/year

OECD

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Coal 6,752 5,068 4,081 3,640 3,107

Oil 2,898 2,727 2,482 2,348 2,245Gas 38 39 39 39 40

Biomass 422 499 579 669 762

Other sources 4,083 4,099 4,190 4,267 4,267

Total 14,193 12,432 11,370 10,964 10,421

Non-OECD

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Coal 44,866 42,392 39,455 37,371 38,226

Oil 12,293 12,192 11,805 11,765 11,710

Gas 274 319 362 421 470Biomass 1,945 2,060 2,342 2,893 3,689

Other sources 12,471 11,323 11,501 11,748 11,748

Total 71,849 68,286 65,465 64,198 65,842

World

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Coal 51,618 47,461 43,536 41,011 41,333

Oil 15,190 14,919 14,286 14,114 13,955

Gas 312 358 400 460 510

Biomass 2,367 2,559 2,921 3,563 4,451

Other sources 16,555 15,422 15,691 16,015 16,015

Total 86,042 80,718 76,835 75,162 76,263


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Table 3.17: Emissions of NOX by fuel for the New Policies Scenario, thousand tons/year

OECD

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Coal 3,505 2,547 2,120 1,812 1,465

Oil 11,603 8,399 6,551 5,834 5,952

Gas 4,205 4,144 4,117 4,112 4,116

Biomass 930 1,053 1,181 1,332 1,505

Other sources 2,179 2,218 2,272 2,336 2,336

Total 22,422 18,361 16,242 15,426 15,373

Non-OECD

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Coal 17,256 17,649 17,706 17,859 18,307

Oil 23,219 22,394 23,196 25,495 30,031

Gas 4,716 4,647 4,834 5,215 5,588

Biomass 2,770 2,910 3,067 3,273 3,532

Other sources 7,269 7,415 7,742 8,144 8,144

Total 55,230 55,016 56,546 59,986 65,602

World

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Coal 20,761 20,195 19,826 19,672 19,772

Oil 34,822 30,793 29,748 31,329 35,983

Gas 8,921 8,792 8,952 9,327 9,704Biomass 3,700 3,964 4,248 4,605 5,036

Other sources 9,448 9,633 10,014 10,480 10,480

Total 77,652 73,377 72,787 75,412 80,975


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Table 3.18: Emissions of PM2.5 by fuel for the New Policies Scenario, thousand tons/year

OECD

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Coal 395 371 337 312 271

Oil 494 355 271 237 240Gas 22 23 25 28 31

Biomass 903 955 1,029 1,132 1,324

Other sources 1,518 1,535 1,558 1,599 1,613

Total 3,332 3,240 3,220 3,308 3,480

Non-OECD

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Coal 5,455 5,566 5,645 5,712 5,852

Oil 1,363 1,246 1,286 1,422 1,688

Gas 77 85 95 108 119Biomass 15,799 15,640 15,224 14,664 14,579

Other sources 14,441 14,017 13,792 13,636 13,675

Total 37,136 36,554 36,043 35,542 35,913

World

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Coal 5,850 5,937 5,982 6,024 6,124

Oil 1,857 1,601 1,557 1,660 1,928

Gas 99 109 120 136 150

Biomass 16,703 16,595 16,254 15,796 15,904

Other sources 15,959 15,552 15,350 15,235 15,288

Total 40,467 39,794 39,263 38,851 39,394


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Table 3.19: Emissions of SO2 by country group in the 450 Scenario, thousand tons/year

WEM region 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

US 5,506 4,179 3,044 2,790 2,835

Canada 1,600 1,449 1,403 1,389 1,377

Mexico 528 472 400 364 361

Japan 538 505 485 465 446Korea 523 493 462 429 411

AUNZ 1,331 1,236 1,153 1,073 1,061

OE4 1,325 1,249 1,028 945 933

EUG4 1,124 948 779 736 741

EUO15 1,471 1,262 1,127 1,049 1,024

EU8 329 289 284 281 274

ETEnonEU 1,967 1,117 1,029 1,063 918

Russia 4,989 4,087 4,018 4,206 4,521

Caspian 2,741 2,689 2,543 2,439 2,374

RATE 35 35 30 24 22

China 35,544 32,132 25,944 21,312 19,714

India 8,977 10,005 10,327 10,510 10,507

Indonesia 1,025 1,049 1,047 1,032 1,016

ASEAN9 1,368 1,410 1,437 1,443 1,500

ODA 2,232 2,489 2,671 2,751 2,540

Brazil 1,179 1,133 1,155 1,189 1,193

OLAM 2,224 1,957 1,933 1,904 1,807

NAFR 727 590 494 463 444

South Africa 1,398 1,137 995 843 785

OAFR 1,601 1,304 1,233 1,173 1,125

ME 4,076 3,723 3,083 2,816 2,649

OECD 13,947 11,794 9,881 9,240 9,189

Non-OECD 70,410 65,148 58,223 53,450 51,388World 84,357 76,942 68,105 62,690 60,577


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Table 3.20: Emissions of NOx by country group in the 450 Scenario, thousand tons/year

WEM region 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

US 9,158 7,232 5,936 5,347 5,229

Canada 1,075 903 817 798 790Mexico 1,107 1,030 1,033 1,056 1,075

Japan 1,215 912 727 635 570

Korea 1,148 903 739 585 528

AUNZ 1,023 867 778 706 706

OE4 981 947 930 958 965

EUG4 3,471 2,578 2,130 1,918 1,854

EUO15 2,876 2,245 1,841 1,662 1,665

EU8 424 345 305 280 274

ETEnonEU 1,145 961 909 916 890

Russia 4,009 3,453 2,997 2,814 2,774

Caspian 1,437 1,454 1,527 1,527 1,516

RATE 91 99 103 100 106China 21,549 20,636 18,777 17,256 17,294

India 4,869 5,590 6,316 7,197 8,490

Indonesia 1,604 1,472 1,496 1,555 1,569

ASEAN9 2,659 2,749 2,881 3,013 3,227

ODA 2,003 2,101 2,260 2,427 2,590

Brazil 2,558 2,497 2,432 2,554 2,684

OLAM 3,199 2,869 2,860 2,870 2,768

NAFR 1,398 1,395 1,383 1,404 1,366

South Africa 1,125 1,017 995 962 931

OAFR 1,922 1,884 1,917 1,934 1,984

ME 4,273 4,316 4,306 4,347 4,264

OECD 22,053 17,617 14,933 13,665 13,383

Non-OECD 54,266 52,836 51,464 51,156 52,727

World 76,319 70,453 66,397 64,821 66,110


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Table 3.21: Emissions of PM2.5 by country group in the 450 Scenario, thousand tons/year

WEM region 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

US 883 896 930 1,028 1,240

Canada 132 131 136 153 193Mexico 395 401 415 434 455

Japan 136 120 109 103 99

Korea 167 161 156 148 148

AUNZ 164 155 149 149 158

OE4 426 436 441 446 448

EUG4 500 470 452 472 503

EUO15 535 520 518 540 581

EU8 215 213 215 215 220

ETEnonEU 551 514 527 592 596

Russia 1,351 1,312 1,275 1,246 1,223

Caspian 201 212 219 226 232

RATE 35 40 43 20 20China 13,304 12,026 10,752 9,524 9,129

India 5,529 5,624 5,684 5,720 5,800

Indonesia 1,502 1,523 1,536 1,538 1,555

ASEAN9 1,876 1,881 1,848 1,810 1,820

ODA 2,305 2,408 2,543 2,628 2,623

Brazil 932 931 897 854 860

OLAM 1,248 1,238 1,230 1,238 1,232

NAFR 518 522 480 444 449

South Africa 404 400 383 365 354

OAFR 6,180 6,455 6,650 6,771 6,816

ME 798 815 752 697 707

OECD 3,340 3,291 3,305 3,473 3,826

Non-OECD 36,949 36,115 35,033 33,890 33,637

World 40,289 39,406 38,339 37,363 37,463


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Table 3.22: Emissions of SO2 by SNAP sector for the 450 Scenario, thousand tons/year

OECD countries

SNAP sector 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

1: Power generation 5,882 3,940 2,185 1,654 1,7862: Domestic 933 854 772 702 649




6: Solvents 0 0 0 0 0

7: Road traffic 35 30 28 26 26

8: Off-road sources 332 322 246 231 222


10: Agriculture 23 23 22 24 24

Sum 13,947 11,794 9,881 9,239 9,189

Non-OECD countries

SNAP sector 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035


2: Domestic 5,014 4,898 4,564 4,147 3,753




6: Solvents 0 0 0 0 0

7: Road traffic 342 319 372 426 502

8: Off-road sources 1,014 1,035 1,026 1,026 1,125


10: Agriculture 149 155 162 170 170Sum 70,410 65,148 58,223 53,450 51,388

World

SNAP sector 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035


2: Domestic 5,947 5,753 5,336 4,850 4,403




6: Solvents 0 0 0 0 0

7: Road traffic 377 349 401 452 528

8: Off-road sources 1,346 1,357 1,272 1,256 1,347


10: Agriculture 172 178 184 194 194

Sum 84,357 76,942 68,105 62,690 60,577


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Table 3.23: Emissions of NOx by SNAP sector for the 450 Scenario, thousand tons/year

OECD countries

SNAP sector 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035


2: Domestic 1,795 1,782 1,770 1,774 1,774

3: Industrial combust. 3,959 3,917 3,945 3,963 3,8914: Industrial processes 935 928 914 896 896


6: Solvents 0 0 0 0 0

7: Road traffic 5,974 3,508 2,387 2,039 2,063

8: Off-road sources 4,121 3,405 2,737 2,318 2,221


10: Agriculture 56 54 52 55 55

Sum 22,053 17,617 14,933 13,665 13,383

Non-OECD countries

SNAP sector 2015 2020 2025 2030 20351: Power generation 14,355 13,799 12,159 10,488 9,458

2: Domestic 3,347 3,367 3,323 3,233 3,144




6: Solvents 0 0 0 0 0

7: Road traffic 12,406 11,243 11,231 11,961 13,442

8: Off-road sources 8,360 8,208 8,374 8,841 10,160


10: Agriculture 239 252 266 283 283

Sum 54,266 52,836 51,464 51,156 52,727

World

SNAP sector 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035


2: Domestic 5,141 5,148 5,093 5,007 4,918




6: Solvents 0 0 0 0 0

7: Road traffic 18,380 14,751 13,618 13,999 15,505

8: Off-road sources 12,481 11,614 11,112 11,159 12,382

9: Waste management 352 348 341 333 33310: Agriculture 294 306 318 338 338

Sum 76,319 70,453 66,397 64,821 66,110


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Table 3.24: emissions of PM2.5 by SNAP sector for the 450 Scenario, thousand tons/year

OECD countries

SNAP sector 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

1: Power generation 179 151 91 52 50

2: Domestic 1,101 1,202 1,338 1,539 1,881

3: Industrial combust. 313 312 327 339 3404: Industrial processes 443 456 468 477 477


6: Solvents 0 0 0 0 0

7: Road traffic 290 223 196 187 191

8: Off-road sources 306 243 192 172 180


10: Agriculture 378 376 368 386 386

Sum 3,340 3,291 3,305 3,473 3,826

Non-OECD countries

SNAP sector 2015 2020 2025 2030 20351: Power generation 2,571 2,542 2,188 1,799 1,550

2: Domestic 16,903 16,610 16,076 15,354 14,983




6: Solvents 0 0 0 0 0

7: Road traffic 653 580 600 654 769

8: Off-road sources 712 655 655 694 779

9: Waste management 2,145 2,161 2,150 2,129 2,129

10: Agriculture 3,330 3,453 3,576 3,701 3,701

Sum 36,949 36,115 35,033 33,890 33,637

World

SNAP sector 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035


2: Domestic 18,004 17,811 17,414 16,893 16,864



5: Fuel extraction 89 94 104 114 114

6: Solvents 0 0 0 0 0

7: Road traffic 942 803 795 841 960

8: Off-road sources 1,017 898 847 866 959

9: Waste management 2,459 2,472 2,458 2,432 2,43210: Agriculture 3,708 3,830 3,945 4,087 4,087

Sum 40,289 39,406 38,339 37,363 37,463


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Table 3.25: Emissions of SO2 by fuel for the 450 Scenario, thousand tons/year

OECD

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Coal 6,584 4,610 2,804 2,171 2,172

Oil 2,813 2,532 2,237 2,040 1,873Gas 37 37 34 34 31

Biomass 429 517 615 728 845

Other sources 4,083 4,099 4,190 4,267 4,267

Total 13,947 11,794 9,881 9,239 9,189

Non-OECD

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Coal 43,583 39,837 32,880 27,209 24,094

Oil 12,133 11,550 10,871 10,480 10,383

Gas 259 293 317 339 370Biomass 1,963 2,145 2,655 3,675 4,793

Other sources 12,471 11,323 11,501 11,748 11,748

Total 70,410 65,148 58,224 53,450 51,388

World

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Coal 50,167 44,447 35,684 29,380 26,267

Oil 14,946 14,081 13,108 12,520 12,256

Gas 296 329 351 373 402

Biomass 2,392 2,663 3,270 4,402 5,638

Other sources 16,555 15,422 15,691 16,015 16,015

Total 84,357 76,942 68,105 62,690 60,577


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Table 3.26: Emissions of NOx by fuel for the 450 Scenario, thousand tons/year

OECD

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Coal 3,439 2,359 1,433 983 1,005

Oil 11,389 8,047 6,109 5,215 5,019Gas 4,105 3,905 3,861 3,675 3,344

Biomass 942 1,088 1,257 1,456 1,679

Other sources 2,179 2,218 2,272 2,336 2,336

Total 22,053 17,617 14,933 13,665 13,383

Non-OECD

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Coal 16,859 16,733 14,792 12,695 11,143

Oil 22,780 21,368 21,345 22,332 24,987

Gas 4,582 4,404 4,445 4,522 4,650Biomass 2,776 2,916 3,140 3,462 3,803

Other sources 7,269 7,415 7,742 8,144 8,144

Total 54,266 52,836 51,464 51,156 52,727

World

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Coal 20,298 19,092 16,225 13,678 12,148

Oil 34,169 29,415 27,455 27,547 30,006

Gas 8,687 8,309 8,306 8,198 7,994

Biomass 3,717 4,004 4,397 4,918 5,482

Other sources 9,448 9,633 10,014 10,480 10,480

Total 76,319 70,453 66,396 64,821 66,110


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Table 3.27: Emissions of PM2.5 fuel for the 450 Scenario, thousand tons/year

OECD

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Coal 383 340 255 200 186

Oil 484 339 250 210 201

Gas 23 26 30 39 54

Biomass 933 1,056 1,220 1,439 1,798

Other sources 1,516 1,531 1,550 1,585 1,588

Total 3,340 3,291 3,305 3,473 3,826

Non-OECD

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Coal 5,347 5,323 4,931 4,469 4,134

Oil 1,338 1,191 1,189 1,258 1,425

Gas 76 82 90 99 107

Biomass 15,750 15,508 15,044 14,450 14,329

Other sources 14,439 14,010 13,780 13,614 13,641

Total 36,949 36,114 35,033 33,890 33,637

World

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Coal 5,731 5,664 5,186 4,669 4,320

Oil 1,822 1,529 1,439 1,468 1,626

Gas 99 108 120 137 161Biomass 16,683 16,563 16,264 15,889 16,127

Other sources 15,955 15,541 15,330 15,199 15,229

Total 40,289 39,406 38,339 37,363 37,463


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Figure 3.2: Emissions of NOx in the WEO 2010 by country group, million tons

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2005 2008 2020 2030 2035 2020 2030 2035 2020 2030 2035

USA EU Oth.OECD+ China Russia Oth. OME India Oth. countries

Current policies 450 scenarioNew policies

Figure 3.3: Emissions of PM2.5 in the WEO 2010 by country group, million tons

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2005 2008 2020 2030 2035 2020 2030 2035 2020 2030 2035

USA EU Oth.OECD+ China Russia Oth. OME India Oth. countries

Current policies 450 scenarioNew policies


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Table 4.1: Air pollution control costs by country group in the Current Policies Scenario, billion /year

WEM region 2005 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

US 40.7 46.8 49.8 60.1 66.7 72.7 76.6 83.8

Canada 3.2 3.9 4.4 5.4 6.3 6.9 7.3 7.5

Mexico 3.2 4.3 4.8 5.8 6.2 6.6 7.1 7.9

Japan 12.1 13.2 13.0 14.1 14.3 14.5 14.5 14.2Korea 3.5 4.3 4.8 6.0 6.4 6.3 6.2 6.0

AUNZ 3.4 4.0 4.1 5.0 5.6 5.8 5.8 6.0

OE4 3.0 4.0 4.3 6.3 8.8 11.3 13.7 15.7

EUG4 24.1 27.8 29.7 35.9 42.0 44.8 46.2 46.2

EU015 17.0 21.3 22.5 28.3 35.1 38.6 40.0 40.9

EU8 1.8 3.0 3.6 4.9 5.8 6.6 7.2 7.3

ETEnonEU 1.5 2.0 2.1 2.9 4.0 4.6 5.3 5.5

Russia 2.5 4.2 5.1 7.2 9.0 10.7 11.6 13.0

Caspian 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6

RATE 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0

China 18.9 30.4 38.8 60.6 82.7 98.7 111.5 137.6

India 1.6 2.3 2.7 5.5 7.7 10.6 14.8 21.2

Indonesia 1.7 2.3 2.9 4.1 4.9 5.8 6.8 7.7

ASEAN9 3.3 4.6 5.4 7.2 9.3 11.0 12.5 14.2

ODA 2.1 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.7

Brazil 2.8 4.3 5.3 8.4 10.5 12.6 13.7 15.3

OLAM 2.9 4.5 5.4 8.0 10.7 12.1 13.2 14.1

NAFR 1.2 1.9 2.4 3.3 4.1 4.6 5.0 5.4

South Africa 1.1 1.5 1.7 2.7 3.9 4.7 5.4 6.1

OAFR 1.2 1.6 1.8 2.7 3.7 4.5 5.4 6.3

ME 3.6 6.1 8.0 12.3 16.2 19.6 22.2 23.6

OECD 110.4 129.6 137.3 166.9 191.3 207.3 217.4 228.2

Non-OECD 46.9 71.6 88.4 133.3 176.0 209.9 238.7 281.9World 157.2 201.2 225.7 300.2 367.3 417.2 456.1 510.1


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Table 4.2: Air pollution control costs by country group in the New Policies Scenario, billion /year

WEM region 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

US 60.0 66.2 71.0 73.3 78.8

Canada 5.3 6.0 6.5 6.9 7.0

Mexico 5.8 6.2 6.4 6.7 7.2

Japan 13.9 13.8 13.5 13.0 12.0Korea 5.9 6.1 5.8 5.5 5.1

AUNZ 4.8 5.2 5.3 5.2 5.3

OE4 6.3 8.5 10.8 13.2 14.8

EUG4 35.4 39.8 41.6 42.0 41.4

EU015 28.4 34.1 35.9 36.1 35.9

EU8 4.8 5.5 6.1 6.4 6.4

ETEnonEU 2.9 3.9 4.5 5.1 5.2

Russia 7.2 8.9 10.4 11.0 12.1

Caspian 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6

RATE 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0

China 59.8 80.1 93.5 102.7 123.8

India 5.3 7.2 9.7 13.3 18.9

Indonesia 4.0 4.7 5.4 6.2 7.0

ASEAN9 6.9 8.9 10.4 11.6 13.0

ODA 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.8 3.0

Brazil 8.4 10.5 12.6 13.7 15.2

OLAM 8.0 10.5 11.7 12.6 13.2

NAFR 3.2 4.0 4.5 4.8 5.1

South Africa 2.7 3.8 4.5 5.1 5.7

OAFR 2.7 3.6 4.4 5.3 6.0

ME 12.1 15.6 18.3 20.1 21.7

OECD 165.8 185.9 196.8 201.8 207.6

Non-OECD 131.4 170.6 199.3 221.4 257.0World 297.1 356.6 396.0 423.2 464.6


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Table 4.3: Air pollution control costs by country group in the 450 Scenario, billion /year

WEM region 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

US 59.4 64.3 61.3 61.0 67.2

Canada 5.3 5.8 6.1 6.3 6.6

Mexico 5.7 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.1

Japan 13.7 13.0 12.2 11.0 9.5Korea 5.8 5.8 5.2 4.6 4.2

AUNZ 4.7 4.9 4.6 4.2 4.3

OE4 6.1 8.2 9.7 11.3 12.3

EUG4 35.2 39.3 39.8 39.2 37.5

EU015 27.4 32.5 33.3 33.3 33.4

EU8 4.7 5.3 5.9 6.3 6.1

ETEnonEU 2.8 3.6 4.0 4.5 4.4

Russia 7.2 8.7 9.8 9.9 10.2

Caspian 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5

RATE 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0

China 59.1 77.5 85.4 87.6 101.9

India 5.2 7.0 9.1 11.9 15.6Indonesia 4.0 4.4 4.9 5.2 5.4

ASEAN9 6.9 8.6 9.7 10.2 11.1

ODA 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.3 2.3

Brazil 8.3 10.1 11.7 12.4 13.5

OLAM 7.7 10.0 10.8 11.0 10.9

NAFR 3.0 3.4 3.5 3.4 3.3

South Africa 2.6 3.7 4.2 4.4 4.5

OAFR 2.6 3.5 4.0 4.6 5.0

ME 12.0 15.1 16.7 17.1 17.0

OECD 163.4 179.7 178.2 176.9 181.1

Non-OECD 129.4 164.0 182.7 191.5 211.6

World 292.8 343.7 360.9 368.4 392.7


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Table 4.4: Air pollution control costs by SNAP sector for the Current Policies Scenario, billion /year

OECD

SNAP sector 2005 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

1: Power generation 32.6 34.0 36.0 37.8 37.5 36.1 34.3 33.4

2: Domestic 7.3 8.8 9.3 10.6 12.2 13.2 14.8 15.7

3: Industrial combust. 5.0 5.5 5.8 6.2 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.64: Industrial processes 7.4 8.0 8.4 8.9 9.3 9.7 9.9 9.9

5: Fuel extraction 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3

6: Solvents 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

7: Road traffic 55.5 68.6 72.6 93.4 109.9 120.3 127.0 138.5

8: Off-road sources 1.4 3.5 3.7 8.7 14.6 20.0 23.3 22.6

9: Waste management 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

10: Agriculture 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2

Sum 110.4 129.6 137.3 166.9 191.3 207.4 217.4 228.2

Non-OECD

SNAP sector 2005 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

1: Power generation 9.5 14.8 18.3 24.6 29.2 33.4 37.7 41.82: Domestic 2.4 2.6 3.3 4.0 4.8 5.6 6.7 6.7

3: Industrial combust. 10.2 12.5 15.5 17.8 19.1 20.1 21.2 21.4

4: Industrial processes 8.0 8.1 10.1 10.7 11.1 11.6 11.9 11.9

5: Fuel extraction 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

6: Solvents 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

7: Road traffic 15.8 31.1 38.4 69.6 99.3 124.3 146.9 185.3

8: Off-road sources 0.8 2.1 2.6 6.2 12.2 14.4 14.0 14.6


10: Agriculture 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Sum 46.9 71.6 88.4 133.3 176.0 209.9 238.7 281.9

World

SNAP sector 2005 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

1: Power generation 42.0 48.9 54.4 62.4 66.7 69.5 72.0 75.2

2: Domestic 9.6 11.4 12.5 14.6 17.0 18.9 21.5 22.3

3: Industrial combust. 15.1 18.0 21.3 24.0 25.5 26.6 27.7 27.9

4: Industrial processes 15.3 16.1 18.5 19.6 20.5 21.3 21.8 21.8

5: Fuel extraction 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7

6: Solvents 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

7: Road traffic 71.3 99.7 111.0 163.0 209.2 244.6 273.9 323.8

8: Off-road sources 2.3 5.6 6.3 15.0 26.7 34.5 37.3 37.2


10: Agriculture 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

Sum 157.2 201.2 225.7 300.2 367.3 417.2 456.1 510.1


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Table 4.5: Air pollution control costs by SNAP sector for the New Policies Scenario, billion/year

OECD

SNAP sector 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

1: Power generation 36.8 33.8 30.5 26.6 22.32: Domestic 10.7 12.9 14.8 17.7 20.2

3: Industrial combust. 6.2 6.4 6.4 6.5 6.4

4: Industrial processes 8.9 9.3 9.7 9.9 9.9

5: Fuel extraction 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3

6: Solvents 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

7: Road traffic 93.1 107.9 115.2 118.5 127.8

8: Off-road sources 8.6 14.1 18.8 21.0 19.5

9: Waste management 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

10: Agriculture 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2

Sum 165.8 185.9 196.8 201.8 207.6

Non-OECD

SNAP sector 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

1: Power generation 23.5 26.3 28.4 29.8 30.9

2: Domestic 4.0 4.7 5.6 6.6 6.6



5: Fuel extraction 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

6: Solvents 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

7: Road traffic 68.9 97.5 120.1 139.7 174.3

8: Off-road sources 6.2 11.8 13.7 13.0 13.3


10: Agriculture 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Sum 131.4 170.6 199.3 221.4 257.0

World

SNAP sector 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035


2: Domestic 14.7 17.7 20.3 24.3 26.7



5: Fuel extraction 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7

6: Solvents 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

7: Road traffic 162.0 205.4 235.3 258.3 302.1

8: Off-road sources 14.8 26.0 32.5 34.0 32.99: Waste management 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

10: Agriculture 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

Sum 297.1 356.6 396.0 423.2 464.6


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Table 4.6: Air pollution control costs by SNAP sector for the 450 Scenario, billion /year

OECD countries

SNAP sector 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035


2: Domestic 10.8 13.5 16.3 20.7 24.8

3: Industrial combust. 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.4 6.44: Industrial processes 8.9 9.3 9.7 9.9 9.9

5: Fuel extraction 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3

6: Solvents 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

7: Road traffic 91.6 104.6 109.4 108.2 109.1

8: Off-road sources 8.5 13.4 17.1 18.1 15.8


10: Agriculture 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2

Sum 163.4 179.7 178.2 176.9 181.1

Non-OECD countries

SNAP sector 2015 2020 2025 2030 20351: Power generation 23.1 24.8 22.8 19.1 16.2

2: Domestic 4.0 4.8 5.6 6.7 6.7



5: Fuel extraction 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

6: Solvents 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

7: Road traffic 67.7 93.4 111.5 123.8 147.5

8: Off-road sources 6.0 11.1 12.4 11.2 11.2


10: Agriculture 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Sum 129.4 164.0 182.7 191.5 211.6

World

SNAP sector 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035


2: Domestic 14.8 18.3 21.9 27.3 31.5



5: Fuel extraction 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7

6: Solvents 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

7: Road traffic 159.3 198.0 221.0 231.9 256.5

8: Off-road sources 14.5 24.5 29.5 29.3 27.0


10: Agriculture 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2Sum 292.8 343.7 360.9 368.4 392.7


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5 Health impacts

Comprehensive assessment of all health and environmental impacts of energy scenarios analyzed in

this report was not possible for all countries due to lack of data. Thus the analysis was limited to theestimates of life years lost (YOLL) attributable to the exposure to PM2.5 in ambient air in Europe,

China and India. Countries included cover nearly half of the world population. Ambient PM2.5

concentrations include primary PM2.5 as well as secondary aerosols (sulphates and nitrates).

Methodology of the assessment was developed in collaboration with the World Health Organization

(WHO) - compare Amann, Heyes, Schpp, and Mechler, 2004. Since the YOLL indicator includes

long-term health effects of exposure to fine particles, the estimates refer to the population above the

age of thirty8. It needs to be stressed that the assessment covers only outdoor exposure and does not

consider negative health effects of indoor air pollution.

Concentrations of fine particles as in 2005 cause a loss of about 1.9 billion of life years - Table 5.1.This estimate is dominated by impacts in China and India, which together contribute 85 percent of

YOLL in 2005. The Current Policies Scenario implies an increase of the YOLL indicator until 2035 by

about 70 percent to 3.2 billion. This is a combined effect of higher emissions of air pollutants and

population increase in India and China and a decrease of air pollution in Europe. Reductions of

precursor emissions in the 450 Scenario compared with the Current Policies case and thus lower

concentrations of PM2.5 in 2035 save 740 million life-years, of which 360 million in China and 380

million in India. The New Policies scenario reduces life-years lost in the countries included in the

analysis by 340 million.

Compared with the numbers presented in the World Energy Outlook 2009, current estimates are lower.

They take into account more conservative (lower) values of relative risk factors for developing

countries (China and India), resulting from recent activities of the Global Burden of Disease Project9.

8 In 2005, the share of population over the age of thirty was 53 percent in China, 42 percent in India and 72

percent in the European Union.

9 http://www.globalburden.org/index.html


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Table 5.1: Life years lost (YOLL) due to exposure to anthropogenic emissions of PM2.5, million life

years

WEM Current Policies Scenario

region 2005 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

China 1163 1313 1413 1514 1565 1545 1531 1573

India 432 504 552 684 854 1043 1302 1466

Russia (1) 53 52 50 50 49 48 49 49

EU-8 17 14 12 11 10 10 10 9

OE4 (2) 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 1

EUG4 106 91 82 73 65 62 62 49

EU015 74 62 54 49 45 43 43 36

ETEnonEU 34 31 28 27 24 24 26 24

WEM New Policies Scenario

region 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

China 1496 1517 1470 1421 1420

India 674 825 979 1185 1286

Russia (1) 50 48 47 48 48

EU-8 11 10 9 9 9

OE4 (2) 2 2 1 1 1

EUG4 73 63 60 60 47

EU015 49 44 42 42 34

ETEnonEU 27 23 23 24 23

WEM 450 Scenario

region 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

China 1486 1491 1375 1266 1215

India 660 792 913 1057 1085

Russia (1) 50 47 46 46 46

EU-8 11 9 9 9 8

OE4 (2) 2 2 1 1 1

EUG4 72 62 58 58 45

EU015 48 43 41 41 33

ETEnonEU 26 22 22 23 21

(1) Only European part(2) Does not include Turkey


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6 Summary and conclusions

This report presents emissions of air pollutants for energy scenarios analyzed in the World EnergyOutlook 2010. Estimations have been done with the IIASA GAINS model. The study covers emissions

from 25 regions of the world, consistent with the aggregation of countries in the IEA World Energy

Model. The national assessment does not include emissions form international shipping as well as

cruising emissions from aviation. Also emissions from biomass burning (deforestation, savannah

burning, and vegetation fires) are not included in national totals.

The assessment takes into account current air pollution control legislation in each country. In the

Current Policies Scenario the world emissions of SO2 (96 million tons in 2005) decrease by 11 percent

until 2020. In the period 20302035 the emissions increase by about 5 million tons. The emissions of

NOx (86 million tons in 2005) decrease until 2020 also by about 11 percent and then begin to rise, so

that in 2035 they are six percent higher than in 2005. Emissions of PM2.5 (35 million tons in 2005) are

four to seven percent higher over the projection period

The 450 Scenario, with stringent policies to reduce energy-related CO2 emissions, causes important

reductions of emissions of air pollutants compared with the Current Policies case. In 2035 this

reduction is 33 % for SO2, 27 percent for NOx, and eight percent for PM2.5. Expenditures on air

pollution control in the 450 scenario are reduced in 2035 by 117billion /a compared with the Current

Policy case. Also impact of air pollution on human health is much lower for the scenario with stringent

climate measures. In 2035, life years lost in Europe, China and India attributable to the exposure from

anthropogenic emissions of PM2.5 decrease in the 450 scenario by 23 percent, which means saving of

more than seven hundred million life years.

These numbers clearly demonstrate the importance of co-benefits of climate policies for air pollution.

These co-benefits should be taken into account in the process of developing strategies and targets for

reducing emissions of climate-relevant gases.


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References

Amann, M. et al. (2004). The RAINS model: Documentation of the model approach prepared for the

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Amann, M., Heyes, Ch., Schpp, W., Mechler, R. (2004). The RAINS model: Modelling of Health

Impacts of Fine Particles. Revised version, May 2004. International Institute for Applied

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Appendix 1

Breakdown of world regions

WEM region GAINS Equivalent

US United States of America

CAN Canada

Mexico Mexico

Japan Japan

Korea Korea (South)

AUNZ Australia+New Zealand

OE4 Norway+Switzerland+Turkey, Iceland

EUG4 France+Germany+Italy+United Kingdom

EU015 Austria+Belgium+Czech Republic + Denmark+Finland+ Greece +Hungary+Ireland+Luxembourg+ Netherlands+Poland+ Portugal+Slovak Republic

+Spain+Sweden

EU-8 Bulgaria+Cyprus+Estonia+Latvia+Lithuania+Malta+Romania+Slovenia

ETEnonEU Albania+Belarus+Bosnia and Herzogovina+Croatia+Macedonia+ Republic of

Moldova+Serbia and Montenegro+Ukraine (Gibraltar unavailable)

Russia Russia

Caspian Azerbaijan+Kazakhstan+Other USSR Asia

ATE Armenia+Georgia+Kyrgyzstan

China China

India India

Indonesia Indonesia

ASEAN9 Brunei+Cambodia+Laos+Malaysia+Myanmar+Philippines+Singapore+Thailand+Vietnam

RODA Bangladesh+DPR of Korea+Mongolia+Nepal+Pakistan+Sri Lanka+Chinese

Taipei, Afghaniastan, Bhutan (other countries in Asia unavailable)

Brazil Brazil

OLAM Argentina+Chile+Other Latin America

NAFR Egypt+North Africa

South Africa South Africa

OAFR Other Africa

Middle East Middle East

Aggregations

Aggregated WEM region Coverage

OECD+ OECD countries plus non-OECD EU Member States

OME Other Major Economies (Brazil, China, Russia, South Africa and countries of

the Middle East)

Other countries All countries not belonging to OECD+ and OME (except India, which is shown

on the graphs separately)

iiasa emissions impacts

Documents