Sweden and IIASA Highlights

(2008-2014)

September 2014

CONTENTS

1. Summary2. National Member Organization3. Some Leading Swedish Personalities Associated with

IIASA4. Research Partners5. Research Collaborations: Selected Highlights6. Capacity Building7. Further Information

SUMMARY (2008-2014)National Member Organization

The Swedish Research Council for Environment, Agricultural Sciences and Spatial Planning (FORMAS)

Membership start date 1976

Research partners 30 organizations in Sweden

Areas of research collaborations

Research collaborations to tackle climate changeTransitions toward a sustainable energy systemSwedish forests: Natural resources and ecosystem servicesThe future of fisheriesProjecting demographic change in Sweden The Arctic and SwedenAdvancing the research methods of systems analysis

Capacity building 24 doctoral students from Sweden have participated in IIASA’s Young Scientists Summer Program and its new Southern African version

Publication output 199 publications have resulted from IIASA-Swedish collaborations

Other interactions Researchers, advisors, and diplomats from Sweden have visited IIASA over 135 times, while IIASA scientists have visited Sweden over 175 times.

NATIONAL MEMBER ORGANIZATIONThe Swedish Research Council for Environment, Agricultural Sciences and Spatial Planning (FORMAS) Swedish-IIASA Committee• Ingrid Petersson (Chair), General Director, FORMAS, and IIASA Council Member for Sweden• Professor Love Ekenberg, Head, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences (DSV),

Stockholm University; Visiting Professor, KTH Royal Institute of Technology• Dr Jakob Granit, Centre Director, and Deputy Director, Stockholm Environment Institute• Dr Klaus Hammes, Head, Policy Analysis Unit, Swedish Energy Agency • Dr Hördur Haraldsson, Swedish Environmental Protection Agency• Mr Jan Lagerström, Research Director, Swedish Forest Industries Federation• Professor Annika Nordin, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU)• Professor Dr Björn Stigson, Chairman, Stigson & Partners• Professor Cintia Bertacchi Uvo, Lund University

Dr Sandro Caruso, Senior Research Officer at FORMAS is the NMO Secretary for Sweden.

SOME LEADING PERSONALITIES IN SWEDEN AND ASSOCIATED WITH IIASA

Johan Rockström Lisa Sennerby-Forsse

Carl Folke Anna LedinBert Bolin

Bjӧrn Stigson

RESEARCH PARTNERS

• 30 institutions in Sweden, including: • KTH Royal Institute of Technology• Lund University • Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) • Stockholm University• Swedish Board of Fisheries (NBF)• Swedish Energy Agency• Swedish Environmental Protection Agency• Swedish Environmental Research Institute (IVL)• Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI)• Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU)• Umeå University

RESEARCH COLLABORATIONS

Selected Highlights:• Bioenergy potentials in Sweden• Optimal location of biofuel plants in Sweden• Projecting changing population in Sweden• Global Energy Assessment and Sweden• Methane emissions and the Arctic• Improved fishing policies

BIOENERGY POTENTIALS IN SWEDEN

The Future of Nordic Forestry: A Global Perspective. (In press) Westholm, Lindahl, Kraxner (Eds). Springer

Total production of bioenergy 2000-2050 under the different scenarios

Cumulative deforestation 2000-2050 caused by land use change

according to the different scenarios

OPTIMAL LOCATION OF BIOFUEL PLANTS

Wetterlund, E., Pettersson, K., et. al., (2013) Optimal localisation of next generation biofuel production in Sweden – Part II. Report No 2013:26, f3 The Swedish Knowledge Centre for Renewable Transportation Fuels, Sweden.

PROJECTING CHANGING POPULATION IN SWEDEN

To update with Finland

0-45-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9495-99100+

500 400 300 200 100 0 100 200 300 400 500

Sweden - Base Year 2010

Population in Thousands

Ag

e (

in Y

ea

rs)

9.4 Million FemalesMales

PROJECTING CHANGING POPULATION IN SWEDENSUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

0-45-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9495-99100+

500 400 300 200 100 0 100 200 300 400 500

Sweden - Projections 2030 - SSP1

Population in Thousands

Ag

e (

in Y

ea

rs)

11.1 Million FemalesMales FemalesMales

PROJECTING CHANGING POPULATION IN SWEDENSUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

0-45-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9495-99100+

500 400 300 200 100 0 100 200 300 400 500

Sweden - Projections 2060 - SSP1

Population in Thousands

Ag

e (

in Y

ea

rs)

13.8 Million FemalesMales

PROJECTING CHANGING POPULATION IN SWEDEN

To update with Finland

0-45-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9495-99100+

500 400 300 200 100 0 100 200 300 400 500

Sweden - Base Year 2010

Population in Thousands

Ag

e (

in Y

ea

rs)

9.4 Million FemalesMales

PROJECTING CHANGING POPULATION IN SWEDENSTALLED DEVELOPMENT

0-45-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9495-99100+

500 400 300 200 100 0 100 200 300 400 500

Sweden - Projections 2030 - SSP3

Population in Thousands

Ag

e (

in Y

ea

rs)

10.1 Million FemalesMales FemalesMales

PROJECTING CHANGING POPULATION IN SWEDENSTALLED DEVELOPMENT

0-45-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9495-99100+

500 400 300 200 100 0 100 200 300 400 500

Sweden - Projections 2060 - SSP3

Population in Thousands

Ag

e (

in Y

ea

rs)

9.9 Million FemalesMales

GLOBAL ENERGY ASSESSMENT AND SWEDEN

16Source: GEA, 2012: Global Energy Assessment - Toward a Sustainable Future, Cambridge University Press and IIASA

• 2006-12: GEA defines a new global energy policy agenda—one that transforms the way society thinks about, uses, and delivers energy.

• Significant Swedish contribution: – Sponsorship (FORMAS & Swedish Energy

Agency)– Direction via key roles in GEA governing

Council and executive committee– 16 Swedish authors and reviewers

• One notable outcome: GEA guides targets of UN Secretary-General’s Sustainable Energy For All Initiative

METHANE EMISSIONS AND THE ARCTICImplementation of existing control technology in Arctic countries would contribute to significant reductions in future global methane emissions

Source: Höglund-Isaksson, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (2012)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Tg C

H 4pe

r ye

ar

Future scenarios of global anthropogenic methane emissions in the GAINS model

with current control policies

with max feasibleimplementation of existingcontrol technology in ArcticCouncil member countries only

with max feasible implentationglobally of existing controltechnology

IMPROVED FISHING POLICIES• Northern Cod stock collapsed in

1992 and has not recovered since

• Heavy exploitation favors earlier maturation at smaller size

• We have documented a15% drop in age at maturation and a 30% drop in size at maturation

• Such evolutionary impactsof fishing are very slow and difficult to reverse

• New tool: Evolutionary Impact Assessments (Science 318:1247, Science 320:48)

Moratorium

1975 1992 200430

80

70

60

50

40

Early warning

Size at 50% maturationprobability at age 5 (cm)

Nature 428:932

CAPACITY BUILDING• 23 doctoral students studying in Sweden have won places

on IIASA’s Young Scientists Summer Program since 2008.

Southern-African Young Scientist Summer Program: (SA-YSSP)• Jonas Wickman (SA-YSSP 2013-14 &

Umeå University) researched the impact of spatial structure on evolutionary food-web formation.

CAPACITY BUILDING

CAPACITY BUILDING10 postdoctoral fellows from Sweden have developed their research and published widely at IIASA since 2008

FURTHER INFORMATION

IIASA www.iiasa.ac.at

The Swedish Research Council for Environment, Agricultural Sciences and Spatial Planning

(FORMAS)www.formas.se