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Characterizing terrestrial exoplanets: The case for a Large Mid-Infrared Interferometry Mission Sascha P. Quanz (ETH Zurich) - Contact person Co-authors & supporters: Olivier Absil, Willy Benz, Xavier Bonfils, Jean-Philippe Berger, Denis Defrere, William Danchi, Ewine van Dishoeck, David Ehrenreich, Jonathan Fortney, Scott Gaudi, Adrian Glauser, John Lee Grenfell, Michael Ireland, Markus Janson, Stefan Kraus, Oliver Krause, Lucas Labadie, Sylvestre Lacour, Michael Line, Hendrik Linz, Jerome Loicq, Bertrand Mennesson, Michael Meyer,Yamila Miguel, John Monnier, Enric Palle, Didier Queloz, Heike Rauer, Ignasi Ribas, Sarah Rugheimer, Franck Selsis, Gene Serabyn, Ignas Snellen, Alessandro Sozzetti, Karl Stapelfeldt, Stephane Udry, Mark Wyatt ESA Voyage 2050 workshop CSIC, Madrid, Spain, 29-31 October, 2019 Image credit: NASA/JPL Caltech; ESA Medialab

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Page 1: Characterizing terrestrial exoplanets: The case for a Large Mid … · 2019. 10. 30. · cf. Kammerer & Quanz 2018; Quanz et al 2018 Atmospheric characterization of terrestrial exoplanets

Characterizing terrestrial exoplanets: The case for a Large Mid-Infrared Interferometry Mission

Sascha P. Quanz (ETH Zurich) - Contact person

Co-authors & supporters:Olivier Absil, Willy Benz, Xavier Bonfils, Jean-Philippe Berger, Denis Defrere, William Danchi, Ewine van Dishoeck, David Ehrenreich, Jonathan Fortney, Scott Gaudi, Adrian Glauser, John Lee Grenfell, Michael Ireland, Markus Janson, Stefan Kraus, Oliver Krause, Lucas Labadie, Sylvestre Lacour, Michael Line, Hendrik Linz, Jerome Loicq, Bertrand Mennesson, Michael Meyer, Yamila Miguel, John Monnier, Enric Palle, Didier Queloz, Heike Rauer, Ignasi Ribas, Sarah Rugheimer, Franck Selsis, Gene Serabyn, Ignas Snellen, Alessandro Sozzetti, Karl Stapelfeldt, Stephane Udry, Mark Wyatt

ESA Voyage 2050 workshopCSIC, Madrid, Spain, 29-31 October, 2019

Image credit: NASA/JPL Caltech; ESA Medialab

Page 2: Characterizing terrestrial exoplanets: The case for a Large Mid … · 2019. 10. 30. · cf. Kammerer & Quanz 2018; Quanz et al 2018 Atmospheric characterization of terrestrial exoplanets

Image credit: ESO/M. Kornmesser - http://www.eso.org/public/images/eso1204a/

Page 3: Characterizing terrestrial exoplanets: The case for a Large Mid … · 2019. 10. 30. · cf. Kammerer & Quanz 2018; Quanz et al 2018 Atmospheric characterization of terrestrial exoplanets

Image credit: ESO/M. Kornmesser - http://www.eso.org/public/images/eso1204a/

(1) Atmospheric diversity

Page 4: Characterizing terrestrial exoplanets: The case for a Large Mid … · 2019. 10. 30. · cf. Kammerer & Quanz 2018; Quanz et al 2018 Atmospheric characterization of terrestrial exoplanets

Image credit: ESO/M. Kornmesser - http://www.eso.org/public/images/eso1204a/

(1) Atmospheric diversity

(2) Habitability

Page 5: Characterizing terrestrial exoplanets: The case for a Large Mid … · 2019. 10. 30. · cf. Kammerer & Quanz 2018; Quanz et al 2018 Atmospheric characterization of terrestrial exoplanets

Image credit: ESO/M. Kornmesser - http://www.eso.org/public/images/eso1204a/

(1) Atmospheric diversity

(2) Habitability

(3) Biosignatures

Page 6: Characterizing terrestrial exoplanets: The case for a Large Mid … · 2019. 10. 30. · cf. Kammerer & Quanz 2018; Quanz et al 2018 Atmospheric characterization of terrestrial exoplanets

Image credit: NASA; ESA / UCL; NASA Mission Concept Study Report (OST)

Spectroscopy is key and upcoming MIR characterisation missions will focus on hot / warm transiting exoplanets

Under considera

tion

Page 7: Characterizing terrestrial exoplanets: The case for a Large Mid … · 2019. 10. 30. · cf. Kammerer & Quanz 2018; Quanz et al 2018 Atmospheric characterization of terrestrial exoplanets

Image credit: NASA; ESA / UCL; NASA Mission Concept Study Report (OST)

“A long term scientific objective is to characterize the whole range of exoplanets, including, of course, potentially habitable ones. ARIEL would act as a pathfinder for future, even more ambitious campaigns. “

ARIEL Assessment Study Report (Yellow Book)

Spectroscopy is key and upcoming MIR characterisation missions will focus on hot / warm transiting exoplanets

Under considera

tion

Page 8: Characterizing terrestrial exoplanets: The case for a Large Mid … · 2019. 10. 30. · cf. Kammerer & Quanz 2018; Quanz et al 2018 Atmospheric characterization of terrestrial exoplanets

The next step: a direct detection / spectroscopy mission

Image credit: NASA/NOAA; NASA/NOAA GOES Project; NASA; ESA

Reflected light (UV - NIR) Thermal emission (MIR)

Page 9: Characterizing terrestrial exoplanets: The case for a Large Mid … · 2019. 10. 30. · cf. Kammerer & Quanz 2018; Quanz et al 2018 Atmospheric characterization of terrestrial exoplanets

The next step: a direct detection / spectroscopy mission

Image credit: NASA/NOAA; NASA/NOAA GOES Project; NASA; ESA

Reflected light (UV - NIR) Thermal emission (MIR)

Page 10: Characterizing terrestrial exoplanets: The case for a Large Mid … · 2019. 10. 30. · cf. Kammerer & Quanz 2018; Quanz et al 2018 Atmospheric characterization of terrestrial exoplanets

The next step: a direct detection / spectroscopy mission

Image credit: NASA/NOAA; NASA/NOAA GOES Project; NASA; ESA

Reflected light (UV - NIR) Thermal emission (MIR)

Page 11: Characterizing terrestrial exoplanets: The case for a Large Mid … · 2019. 10. 30. · cf. Kammerer & Quanz 2018; Quanz et al 2018 Atmospheric characterization of terrestrial exoplanets

cf. Kammerer & Quanz 2018; Quanz et al 2018

(1) Atmospheric diversity - total planet yield in search phase

Page 12: Characterizing terrestrial exoplanets: The case for a Large Mid … · 2019. 10. 30. · cf. Kammerer & Quanz 2018; Quanz et al 2018 Atmospheric characterization of terrestrial exoplanets

cf. Kammerer & Quanz 2018; Quanz et al 2018

(1) Atmospheric diversity - total planet yield in search phase

Stellar sample

318 nearby FGKM main sequence stars within 20 pc (many more stars exist - target catalog under revision)

Page 13: Characterizing terrestrial exoplanets: The case for a Large Mid … · 2019. 10. 30. · cf. Kammerer & Quanz 2018; Quanz et al 2018 Atmospheric characterization of terrestrial exoplanets

cf. Kammerer & Quanz 2018; Quanz et al 2018

(1) Atmospheric diversity - total planet yield in search phase

Stellar sample

318 nearby FGKM main sequence stars within 20 pc (many more stars exist - target catalog under revision)

Planet population (Kepler)

Occurrence rates and period and radius distributions:- NASA’s SAG 13 report - Dressing & Charbonneau 2015

- Radius: 0.5 - 6 REarth

- Period: 0.5 - 200 / 500 days- Spectral type dependence- Random orbits & albedos

Page 14: Characterizing terrestrial exoplanets: The case for a Large Mid … · 2019. 10. 30. · cf. Kammerer & Quanz 2018; Quanz et al 2018 Atmospheric characterization of terrestrial exoplanets

cf. Kammerer & Quanz 2018; Quanz et al 2018

(1) Atmospheric diversity - total planet yield in search phase

Stellar sample

318 nearby FGKM main sequence stars within 20 pc (many more stars exist - target catalog under revision)

Planet population (Kepler)

Occurrence rates and period and radius distributions:- NASA’s SAG 13 report - Dressing & Charbonneau 2015

- Radius: 0.5 - 6 REarth

- Period: 0.5 - 200 / 500 days- Spectral type dependence- Random orbits & albedos

Technical specifications

Spatial resolution: 5 mas at 10 m(spacecraft separations ~200 m)

Sensitivity (10 in 10 hours):- 0.16 Jy @ 5.6 m- 0.54 Jy @ 10 m- 1.39 Jy @ 15 m

Starlight suppression:~1e5 - 1e6 (from spacecraft)~1e8 (after post-processing)

• Earth has ~0.4 Jy at 10 m seen from 10 pc

μ

σμ μμ μμ μ

μμ

3 -ranges considered

λ

Page 15: Characterizing terrestrial exoplanets: The case for a Large Mid … · 2019. 10. 30. · cf. Kammerer & Quanz 2018; Quanz et al 2018 Atmospheric characterization of terrestrial exoplanets

Total planet yieldPlanets per filter combination

(1) Atmospheric diversity - total planet yield in search phase

cf. Kammerer & Quanz 2018; Quanz et al 2018

Page 16: Characterizing terrestrial exoplanets: The case for a Large Mid … · 2019. 10. 30. · cf. Kammerer & Quanz 2018; Quanz et al 2018 Atmospheric characterization of terrestrial exoplanets

Total planet yieldPlanets per radius-insolation bin (10 m)μPlanets per filter combination

(1) Atmospheric diversity - total planet yield in search phase

cf. Kammerer & Quanz 2018; Quanz et al 2018

Page 17: Characterizing terrestrial exoplanets: The case for a Large Mid … · 2019. 10. 30. · cf. Kammerer & Quanz 2018; Quanz et al 2018 Atmospheric characterization of terrestrial exoplanets

Total planet yieldPlanets per radius-insolation bin (10 m)μPlanets per filter combination

(1) Atmospheric diversity - total planet yield in search phase

cf. Kammerer & Quanz 2018; Quanz et al 2018

Atmospheric characterization of terrestrial exoplanets – habitability, biosignatures and diversity

Figure 4: Statistical motivation for proposed science objectives: In case 30 (=requirement) / 50 (=goal)exoplanets with radii between 0.5 and 1.5 R� and receiving between 0.35 and 1.7 times the insolation ofthe Earth are investigated with high-quality thermal emission spectra not a single exoplanet supportsconditions that allow for the existence of liquid water in its surface, then the hypothesis that...

to be habitable, is a major scientific result and robustly quantifies the rareness of habitable planets.A possible approach is to re-formulate this question in a hypothesis test in the following way: thefraction of terrestrial exoplanets that reside in the empirical habitable zone around their host starand are indeed habitable is X%. Here, the terms “terrestrial exoplanets” and “empirical habitablezone” need to be clearly defined. In the following, “terrestrial exoplanets” are planets with a radiusRplanet with 0.5R� Rplanet 1.5R� and the “empirical habitable zone” is the range where theincoming stellar insolation S is in the range 0.35S� S 1.75S� with S� being the solar constant,i.e., the average insolation received at Earth. The radius range is defined on the small end by the sizeof Mars, which is assumed to be the minimum planet size/mass that can retain an atmosphere, andon the large end by the transition between rocky and gas dominated planets (Rogers, 2015; ?; Chen& Kipping, 2017). The insolation range is defined by the so-called “Early Mars limit” at the outeredge and “Recent Venus limit” at the inner edge (cf. Kaltenegger, 2017). For the radius and insolationranges considered here, 2 planets in the Solar System, Earth and Mars, qualify, and hence, in the SolarSystem, the fraction of terrestrial exoplanets that reside in the empirical habitable zone around theirhost star and are indeed habitable is X = 50%. In Figure 4 we show the significance with which acertain value for X can be rejected in case 30 (blue line) or 50 (red line) planets were observed andnone of them turned out to be habitable. These numbers are based on Poisson statistics and assumethat the occurrence of habitable planets in the habitable zones over the past Gyr are uncorrelatedevents. It shows that, if 30 planets are observed, X = 20% and X = 50% can be rejected with 3� and5�, respectively. For 50 planets, X = 10% and X = 30% can be rejected with the same confidencelevels. These results suggest that, in case of a null-result, several tens of planets would be required inorder to derive statistically significant limits on the rareness of Earth.

As we will detail further below, at the moment we do not have a large enough sample of exoplanetsthat fulfil the criteria and the question how to find this sample needs to be addressed. A possibleway would be that a mission that can address the objectives formulated above would be split in 2phases, a search phase, aiming at detecting a su�cient number of planets in the above-mentionedradius and insolation range, and a characterization phase where a sub-set of the detected planetswould be investigated in su�cient detail. It is important to mention that during the search phase

6

Atmospheric characterization of terrestrial exoplanets – habitability, biosignatures and diversity

Figure 4: Statistical motivation for proposed science objectives: In case 30 (=requirement) / 50 (=goal)exoplanets with radii between 0.5 and 1.5 R� and receiving between 0.35 and 1.7 times the insolation ofthe Earth are investigated with high-quality thermal emission spectra not a single exoplanet supportsconditions that allow for the existence of liquid water in its surface, then the hypothesis that...

to be habitable, is a major scientific result and robustly quantifies the rareness of habitable planets.A possible approach is to re-formulate this question in a hypothesis test in the following way: thefraction of terrestrial exoplanets that reside in the empirical habitable zone around their host starand are indeed habitable is X%. Here, the terms “terrestrial exoplanets” and “empirical habitablezone” need to be clearly defined. In the following, “terrestrial exoplanets” are planets with a radiusRplanet with 0.5R� Rplanet 1.5R� and the “empirical habitable zone” is the range where theincoming stellar insolation S is in the range 0.35S� S 1.75S� with S� being the solar constant,i.e., the average insolation received at Earth. The radius range is defined on the small end by the sizeof Mars, which is assumed to be the minimum planet size/mass that can retain an atmosphere, andon the large end by the transition between rocky and gas dominated planets (Rogers, 2015; ?; Chen& Kipping, 2017). The insolation range is defined by the so-called “Early Mars limit” at the outeredge and “Recent Venus limit” at the inner edge (cf. Kaltenegger, 2017). For the radius and insolationranges considered here, 2 planets in the Solar System, Earth and Mars, qualify, and hence, in the SolarSystem, the fraction of terrestrial exoplanets that reside in the empirical habitable zone around theirhost star and are indeed habitable is X = 50%. In Figure 4 we show the significance with which acertain value for X can be rejected in case 30 (blue line) or 50 (red line) planets were observed andnone of them turned out to be habitable. These numbers are based on Poisson statistics and assumethat the occurrence of habitable planets in the habitable zones over the past Gyr are uncorrelatedevents. It shows that, if 30 planets are observed, X = 20% and X = 50% can be rejected with 3� and5�, respectively. For 50 planets, X = 10% and X = 30% can be rejected with the same confidencelevels. These results suggest that, in case of a null-result, several tens of planets would be required inorder to derive statistically significant limits on the rareness of Earth.

As we will detail further below, at the moment we do not have a large enough sample of exoplanetsthat fulfil the criteria and the question how to find this sample needs to be addressed. A possibleway would be that a mission that can address the objectives formulated above would be split in 2phases, a search phase, aiming at detecting a su�cient number of planets in the above-mentionedradius and insolation range, and a characterization phase where a sub-set of the detected planetswould be investigated in su�cient detail. It is important to mention that during the search phase

6

Requirement: 30 planets w/

Page 18: Characterizing terrestrial exoplanets: The case for a Large Mid … · 2019. 10. 30. · cf. Kammerer & Quanz 2018; Quanz et al 2018 Atmospheric characterization of terrestrial exoplanets

Atmospheric characterization of terrestrial exoplanets – habitability, biosignatures and diversity

Figure 4: Statistical motivation for proposed science objectives: In case 30 (=requirement) / 50 (=goal)exoplanets with radii between 0.5 and 1.5 R� and receiving between 0.35 and 1.7 times the insolation ofthe Earth are investigated with high-quality thermal emission spectra not a single exoplanet supportsconditions that allow for the existence of liquid water in its surface, then the hypothesis that...

to be habitable, is a major scientific result and robustly quantifies the rareness of habitable planets.A possible approach is to re-formulate this question in a hypothesis test in the following way: thefraction of terrestrial exoplanets that reside in the empirical habitable zone around their host starand are indeed habitable is X%. Here, the terms “terrestrial exoplanets” and “empirical habitablezone” need to be clearly defined. In the following, “terrestrial exoplanets” are planets with a radiusRplanet with 0.5R� Rplanet 1.5R� and the “empirical habitable zone” is the range where theincoming stellar insolation S is in the range 0.35S� S 1.75S� with S� being the solar constant,i.e., the average insolation received at Earth. The radius range is defined on the small end by the sizeof Mars, which is assumed to be the minimum planet size/mass that can retain an atmosphere, andon the large end by the transition between rocky and gas dominated planets (Rogers, 2015; ?; Chen& Kipping, 2017). The insolation range is defined by the so-called “Early Mars limit” at the outeredge and “Recent Venus limit” at the inner edge (cf. Kaltenegger, 2017). For the radius and insolationranges considered here, 2 planets in the Solar System, Earth and Mars, qualify, and hence, in the SolarSystem, the fraction of terrestrial exoplanets that reside in the empirical habitable zone around theirhost star and are indeed habitable is X = 50%. In Figure 4 we show the significance with which acertain value for X can be rejected in case 30 (blue line) or 50 (red line) planets were observed andnone of them turned out to be habitable. These numbers are based on Poisson statistics and assumethat the occurrence of habitable planets in the habitable zones over the past Gyr are uncorrelatedevents. It shows that, if 30 planets are observed, X = 20% and X = 50% can be rejected with 3� and5�, respectively. For 50 planets, X = 10% and X = 30% can be rejected with the same confidencelevels. These results suggest that, in case of a null-result, several tens of planets would be required inorder to derive statistically significant limits on the rareness of Earth.

As we will detail further below, at the moment we do not have a large enough sample of exoplanetsthat fulfil the criteria and the question how to find this sample needs to be addressed. A possibleway would be that a mission that can address the objectives formulated above would be split in 2phases, a search phase, aiming at detecting a su�cient number of planets in the above-mentionedradius and insolation range, and a characterization phase where a sub-set of the detected planetswould be investigated in su�cient detail. It is important to mention that during the search phase

6

Atmospheric characterization of terrestrial exoplanets – habitability, biosignatures and diversity

Figure 4: Statistical motivation for proposed science objectives: In case 30 (=requirement) / 50 (=goal)exoplanets with radii between 0.5 and 1.5 R� and receiving between 0.35 and 1.7 times the insolation ofthe Earth are investigated with high-quality thermal emission spectra not a single exoplanet supportsconditions that allow for the existence of liquid water in its surface, then the hypothesis that...

to be habitable, is a major scientific result and robustly quantifies the rareness of habitable planets.A possible approach is to re-formulate this question in a hypothesis test in the following way: thefraction of terrestrial exoplanets that reside in the empirical habitable zone around their host starand are indeed habitable is X%. Here, the terms “terrestrial exoplanets” and “empirical habitablezone” need to be clearly defined. In the following, “terrestrial exoplanets” are planets with a radiusRplanet with 0.5R� Rplanet 1.5R� and the “empirical habitable zone” is the range where theincoming stellar insolation S is in the range 0.35S� S 1.75S� with S� being the solar constant,i.e., the average insolation received at Earth. The radius range is defined on the small end by the sizeof Mars, which is assumed to be the minimum planet size/mass that can retain an atmosphere, andon the large end by the transition between rocky and gas dominated planets (Rogers, 2015; ?; Chen& Kipping, 2017). The insolation range is defined by the so-called “Early Mars limit” at the outeredge and “Recent Venus limit” at the inner edge (cf. Kaltenegger, 2017). For the radius and insolationranges considered here, 2 planets in the Solar System, Earth and Mars, qualify, and hence, in the SolarSystem, the fraction of terrestrial exoplanets that reside in the empirical habitable zone around theirhost star and are indeed habitable is X = 50%. In Figure 4 we show the significance with which acertain value for X can be rejected in case 30 (blue line) or 50 (red line) planets were observed andnone of them turned out to be habitable. These numbers are based on Poisson statistics and assumethat the occurrence of habitable planets in the habitable zones over the past Gyr are uncorrelatedevents. It shows that, if 30 planets are observed, X = 20% and X = 50% can be rejected with 3� and5�, respectively. For 50 planets, X = 10% and X = 30% can be rejected with the same confidencelevels. These results suggest that, in case of a null-result, several tens of planets would be required inorder to derive statistically significant limits on the rareness of Earth.

As we will detail further below, at the moment we do not have a large enough sample of exoplanetsthat fulfil the criteria and the question how to find this sample needs to be addressed. A possibleway would be that a mission that can address the objectives formulated above would be split in 2phases, a search phase, aiming at detecting a su�cient number of planets in the above-mentionedradius and insolation range, and a characterization phase where a sub-set of the detected planetswould be investigated in su�cient detail. It is important to mention that during the search phase

6

Focus on terrestrial exoplanets (R = 0.5-1.5 R ) in habitable zone (S0= 0.35 - 1.75 S )⊕ ⊕

(2) Occurrence rate of “habitable” planets

Page 19: Characterizing terrestrial exoplanets: The case for a Large Mid … · 2019. 10. 30. · cf. Kammerer & Quanz 2018; Quanz et al 2018 Atmospheric characterization of terrestrial exoplanets

Atmospheric characterization of terrestrial exoplanets – habitability, biosignatures and diversity

Figure 4: Statistical motivation for proposed science objectives: In case 30 (=requirement) / 50 (=goal)exoplanets with radii between 0.5 and 1.5 R� and receiving between 0.35 and 1.7 times the insolation ofthe Earth are investigated with high-quality thermal emission spectra not a single exoplanet supportsconditions that allow for the existence of liquid water in its surface, then the hypothesis that...

to be habitable, is a major scientific result and robustly quantifies the rareness of habitable planets.A possible approach is to re-formulate this question in a hypothesis test in the following way: thefraction of terrestrial exoplanets that reside in the empirical habitable zone around their host starand are indeed habitable is X%. Here, the terms “terrestrial exoplanets” and “empirical habitablezone” need to be clearly defined. In the following, “terrestrial exoplanets” are planets with a radiusRplanet with 0.5R� Rplanet 1.5R� and the “empirical habitable zone” is the range where theincoming stellar insolation S is in the range 0.35S� S 1.75S� with S� being the solar constant,i.e., the average insolation received at Earth. The radius range is defined on the small end by the sizeof Mars, which is assumed to be the minimum planet size/mass that can retain an atmosphere, andon the large end by the transition between rocky and gas dominated planets (Rogers, 2015; ?; Chen& Kipping, 2017). The insolation range is defined by the so-called “Early Mars limit” at the outeredge and “Recent Venus limit” at the inner edge (cf. Kaltenegger, 2017). For the radius and insolationranges considered here, 2 planets in the Solar System, Earth and Mars, qualify, and hence, in the SolarSystem, the fraction of terrestrial exoplanets that reside in the empirical habitable zone around theirhost star and are indeed habitable is X = 50%. In Figure 4 we show the significance with which acertain value for X can be rejected in case 30 (blue line) or 50 (red line) planets were observed andnone of them turned out to be habitable. These numbers are based on Poisson statistics and assumethat the occurrence of habitable planets in the habitable zones over the past Gyr are uncorrelatedevents. It shows that, if 30 planets are observed, X = 20% and X = 50% can be rejected with 3� and5�, respectively. For 50 planets, X = 10% and X = 30% can be rejected with the same confidencelevels. These results suggest that, in case of a null-result, several tens of planets would be required inorder to derive statistically significant limits on the rareness of Earth.

As we will detail further below, at the moment we do not have a large enough sample of exoplanetsthat fulfil the criteria and the question how to find this sample needs to be addressed. A possibleway would be that a mission that can address the objectives formulated above would be split in 2phases, a search phase, aiming at detecting a su�cient number of planets in the above-mentionedradius and insolation range, and a characterization phase where a sub-set of the detected planetswould be investigated in su�cient detail. It is important to mention that during the search phase

6

Atmospheric characterization of terrestrial exoplanets – habitability, biosignatures and diversity

Figure 4: Statistical motivation for proposed science objectives: In case 30 (=requirement) / 50 (=goal)exoplanets with radii between 0.5 and 1.5 R� and receiving between 0.35 and 1.7 times the insolation ofthe Earth are investigated with high-quality thermal emission spectra not a single exoplanet supportsconditions that allow for the existence of liquid water in its surface, then the hypothesis that...

to be habitable, is a major scientific result and robustly quantifies the rareness of habitable planets.A possible approach is to re-formulate this question in a hypothesis test in the following way: thefraction of terrestrial exoplanets that reside in the empirical habitable zone around their host starand are indeed habitable is X%. Here, the terms “terrestrial exoplanets” and “empirical habitablezone” need to be clearly defined. In the following, “terrestrial exoplanets” are planets with a radiusRplanet with 0.5R� Rplanet 1.5R� and the “empirical habitable zone” is the range where theincoming stellar insolation S is in the range 0.35S� S 1.75S� with S� being the solar constant,i.e., the average insolation received at Earth. The radius range is defined on the small end by the sizeof Mars, which is assumed to be the minimum planet size/mass that can retain an atmosphere, andon the large end by the transition between rocky and gas dominated planets (Rogers, 2015; ?; Chen& Kipping, 2017). The insolation range is defined by the so-called “Early Mars limit” at the outeredge and “Recent Venus limit” at the inner edge (cf. Kaltenegger, 2017). For the radius and insolationranges considered here, 2 planets in the Solar System, Earth and Mars, qualify, and hence, in the SolarSystem, the fraction of terrestrial exoplanets that reside in the empirical habitable zone around theirhost star and are indeed habitable is X = 50%. In Figure 4 we show the significance with which acertain value for X can be rejected in case 30 (blue line) or 50 (red line) planets were observed andnone of them turned out to be habitable. These numbers are based on Poisson statistics and assumethat the occurrence of habitable planets in the habitable zones over the past Gyr are uncorrelatedevents. It shows that, if 30 planets are observed, X = 20% and X = 50% can be rejected with 3� and5�, respectively. For 50 planets, X = 10% and X = 30% can be rejected with the same confidencelevels. These results suggest that, in case of a null-result, several tens of planets would be required inorder to derive statistically significant limits on the rareness of Earth.

As we will detail further below, at the moment we do not have a large enough sample of exoplanetsthat fulfil the criteria and the question how to find this sample needs to be addressed. A possibleway would be that a mission that can address the objectives formulated above would be split in 2phases, a search phase, aiming at detecting a su�cient number of planets in the above-mentionedradius and insolation range, and a characterization phase where a sub-set of the detected planetswould be investigated in su�cient detail. It is important to mention that during the search phase

6

Focus on terrestrial exoplanets (R = 0.5-1.5 R ) in habitable zone (S0= 0.35 - 1.75 S )⊕ ⊕

(2) Occurrence rate of “habitable” planets

Page 20: Characterizing terrestrial exoplanets: The case for a Large Mid … · 2019. 10. 30. · cf. Kammerer & Quanz 2018; Quanz et al 2018 Atmospheric characterization of terrestrial exoplanets

(3) Atmospheric characterization potential and biosignatures

Quanz, Line & Fortney, in prep.

Retrieval study of an Earth-twin

Page 21: Characterizing terrestrial exoplanets: The case for a Large Mid … · 2019. 10. 30. · cf. Kammerer & Quanz 2018; Quanz et al 2018 Atmospheric characterization of terrestrial exoplanets

(3) Atmospheric characterization potential and biosignatures

3 - 20 micron SNR = 20R = 100

Retrieval study of an Earth-twin

Quanz, Line & Fortney, in prep.

Page 22: Characterizing terrestrial exoplanets: The case for a Large Mid … · 2019. 10. 30. · cf. Kammerer & Quanz 2018; Quanz et al 2018 Atmospheric characterization of terrestrial exoplanets

0.4 - 1 micronSNR = 20R = 140(Feng et al. 2018)

(3) Atmospheric characterization potential and biosignatures

3 - 20 micron SNR = 20R = 100

Retrieval study of an Earth-twin

Quanz, Line & Fortney, in prep.

Page 23: Characterizing terrestrial exoplanets: The case for a Large Mid … · 2019. 10. 30. · cf. Kammerer & Quanz 2018; Quanz et al 2018 Atmospheric characterization of terrestrial exoplanets

0.4 - 1 micronSNR = 20R = 140(Feng et al. 2018)

(3) Atmospheric characterization potential and biosignatures

3 - 20 micron SNR = 20R = 100

Retrieval study of an Earth-twin

Quanz, Line & Fortney, in prep.

HabitabilityBiosignatures

Page 24: Characterizing terrestrial exoplanets: The case for a Large Mid … · 2019. 10. 30. · cf. Kammerer & Quanz 2018; Quanz et al 2018 Atmospheric characterization of terrestrial exoplanets

0.4 - 1 micronSNR = 20R = 140(Feng et al. 2018)

(3) Atmospheric characterization potential and biosignatures

3 - 20 micron SNR = 20R = 100

Retrieval study of an Earth-twin

Quanz, Line & Fortney, in prep.

Many more molecules accessible at MIR

wavelengths

HabitabilityBiosignatures

Page 25: Characterizing terrestrial exoplanets: The case for a Large Mid … · 2019. 10. 30. · cf. Kammerer & Quanz 2018; Quanz et al 2018 Atmospheric characterization of terrestrial exoplanets

Formation flying

Starlight suppression

ESA’s PROBA-3 (launch planned end of 2020) will maintain formation to millimetre and arc second precision at distances of 150 m or more; the pair will be flying autonomously, without relying on guidance from the ground. This would exceed requirements for nulling interferometer.

(cf. results from the PRISMA mission; cm-precision formation flying)

The lab testbed at JPL demonstrated the main components of a high per-formance four-beam nulling interferometer at a level needed for space (10 micron, 10% bandwidth, nulls of 8e-6 and starlight suppression of 1e-8 after post-processing; Martin et al. 2012)

Significant progress from ground: VLTI, LBTI, Keck

Advances in key technologies for space-based nulling interferometry

Image credit: ESA

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"Technology development support in the next decade for future characterization concepts such as mid-infrared (MIR) interferometers [...] will be needed to enable strategic exoplanet

missions beyond 2040."

“[…] That said, the common (although often unspoken) belief is that such a nulling, near-infrared (NIR) interferometer would be a necessary follow-up to any reflected light direct imaging mission, as detecting the exoplanet in thermal emission is not only

required to measure the temperature of the planet, but is also needed to measure its radius, and so (with an astrometric or radial

velocity detection of [...] the mass of the planet) measure its density and thus determine if it is

truly terrestrial." 

National Academy of Sciences, ”Exoplanet Science Strategy"

report (09/2018)

The next step(s) in exoplanet science: possible scenarios

Image credit: NASA/JPL/Caltech; https: // exoplanets. nasa. gov/ exep/ technology/ technology-overview/ (accessed July 4, 2019)

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The next step(s) in exoplanet science: possible scenarios

Image credit: NASA/JPL/Caltech; https: // exoplanets. nasa. gov/ exep/ technology/ technology-overview/ (accessed July 4, 2019)

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The next step(s) in exoplanet science: possible scenarios

Image credit: NASA/JPL/Caltech; https: // exoplanets. nasa. gov/ exep/ technology/ technology-overview/ (accessed July 4, 2019)

- led

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The next step(s) in exoplanet science: possible scenarios

Image credit: NASA/JPL/Caltech; https: // exoplanets. nasa. gov/ exep/ technology/ technology-overview/ (accessed July 4, 2019)

- led

- led

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Europe is in a strong position to lead a space-based MIR interferometer…

Image credit: ESA - P. Carril; EADS Astrium

Formation flying

Space interferometryESA’s LISA (L3) ESA’s Herschel

ESA’s Proba 3 MIR instrumentsMIRI

Cryogenics

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CircumstellarDisks

StarFormation&StellarClusters

EvolvedStars

AGNs

…and other communities will appreciate such a mission

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Upcoming Lorentz Center workshop

www.life-space-mission.com

Dates- May 11-15, 2020

Goals- Get input and engage a wider community- Re-fine science objectives and requirements- Assess and discuss recent development in

relevant technologies

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Summary Free-flying mid-infrared (nulling) interferometer

Wavelength range: ~3 - 20 m

Spectral resolution: R ~ 20 - 100

Total mission lifetime (requirement) 5-6 years:- search phase- characterization phase- other science

Lots of heritage exist and significant progress has been made ever since mid-2000s

Europe has chance to maintain leadership in one of the most vibrant fields of 21st century astrophysics

μ

Image credit:NASA Ames/JPL-Caltech/T. Pyle

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Thank youSascha P. Quanz (ETH Zurich) - Contact personCo-authors & supporters:Olivier Absil, Willy Benz, Xavier Bonfils, Jean-Philippe Berger, Denis Defrere, William Danchi, Ewine van Dishoeck, David Ehrenreich, Jonathan Fortney, Scott Gaudi, Adrian Glauser, John Lee Grenfell, Michael Ireland, Markus Janson, Stefan Kraus, Oliver Krause, Lucas Labadie, Sylvestre Lacour, Michael Line, Hendrik Linz, Jerome Loicq, Bertrand Mennesson, Michael Meyer, Yamila Miguel, John Monnier, Enric Palle, Didier Queloz, Heike Rauer, Ignasi Ribas, Sarah Rugheimer, Franck Selsis, Gene Serabyn, Ignas Snellen, Alessandro Sozzetti, Karl Stapelfeldt, Stephane Udry, Mark Wyatt

Image credit: NASA/JPL Caltech; ESA Medialab