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Central Europe CFO Survey Czech Republic
March 2015 | 6th edition
© 2015 Deloitte Czech Republic2
The company’s economic results, as well as the macroeconomic data, prove that the economic situation has improved. The positive development in countries that are the main business partners of Czech companies, the increasing investment activity of domestic companies, the increasing optimism of households, the relaxed monetary policy as well as favourable financial conditions and the turnaround in the fiscal policy are all factors that contribute to the improving economic situation.
The continuing market recovery has become apparent in the growing optimism of company CFOs. More than half of the CFOs, who took part in this survey, expect moderate growth of the economy. Thanks to increasing production, sales and new contracts, the situation on the labour market is also improving. The unemployment rate has been decreasing for over a year, and this trend should continue in the upcoming months as well. However, the growing demand for work has also revealed that there is a lack of suitable candidates for junior positions, as well as a lack of labour force with sufficient experience for senior or top management positions in companies.
An important characteristic of the Czech economy is its stability at the macroeconomic and corporate level. This is one of the reasons for a relatively low level of activity in the field of company restructurings or significant changes in the established business models of companies.
However, the optimism mentioned above is still rather cautious. Companies are still not very willing to take any significant business risks, which is reflected, for example, in the relatively low priority of new investments or increasing sales on the markets, where they are already operating, as well as a relatively low willingness to expand to new markets.
Another factor showing companies’ cautious attitude is relatively low growth in the volume of corporate loans. However, an environment of low interest rates and better availability of bank borrowing increases the attractiveness of this funding source. Most companies, on the other hand, still show a lack of interest in using share capital as a source of funding.
Compared to last year, CFOs are more optimistic as regards the financial outlook for their companies
Introduction
1 About the sixth Deloitte CE CFO Survey
2 Key findings
3 Growth
4 Risk
5 Debt
6 Financing
7 Talent
Contents
© 2015 Deloitte Czech Republic3
Following the long recession, the Czech economy is now experiencing a period of growth, which, despite not reaching pre-crisis figures, is still above the average of other European countries. A very important aspect of the Czech economy is its stability, which is based on the cautious attitude of companies and the conservative approach of the finance sector.
We are approaching a period of uncertainty, with the unresolved situation in eastern Ukraine, the unstable situation in the Middle East, as well as the risk of deflation in the eurozone. The Czech economy has coped very well during the difficult years of the global economic crisis and the following European debt crisis. The essentials of the Czech economy, its prudence and the companies’ ability to adapt, justify the moderate optimism, which is characteristic of the results of our current survey.
Martin TesařPartner, Deloitte Czech Republic
Introduction
1 About the sixth Deloitte CE CFO Survey
2 Key findings
3 Growth
4 Risk
5 Debt
6 Financing
7 Talent
Contents
About the sixth Deloitte CE CFO Survey
© 2015 Deloitte Czech Republic4
© 2015 Deloitte Czech Republic5
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7PL
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The sixth CE CFO survey was conducted in October and November 2014.
550 CFOs from fourteen CE countries participated in the survey, including the Czech Republic.
© 2015 Deloitte Central Europe6
Key findings
© 2015 Deloitte Czech Republic7
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• Justlikelastyear,CFOswillconcentratemore on business growth on existing as well as new markets.
• The shareofCFOswhoareawareofthe good accessibility of corporate credit has significantly increased (a year-on-year increase from 6.5% to 27.7%).
Key findings
• CFOsareawareofthe improvingoveralleconomic situation.
• AlmosttwothirdsofCFOsdonotwantto take greater risk onto their company’s balance sheet.
• Businessgrowthisthe priorityforthe upcoming year for over a quarter of CFOs.
• The numberofCFOswhoseebankcreditsas an attractive source of funding has also increased.
• Fundingthroughsharecapital,onthe otherhand, is seen as an attractive option by less than one tenth of CFOs.
Growth
© 2015 Deloitte Czech Republic8
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Financial prospects
The economic situation in 2014 improved thanks to the continuing moderate economic growth in the eurozone, the relaxed monetary policy, the turnaround in the fiscal policy and also because of the improved sentiment among consumers and companies.
The CFO Survey conducted in the Czech Republic clearly proves this trend. While in 2013, half of the respondents were expecting unchanged financial conditions, in 2014, 56.5% of the respondents saw the future as optimistic.
Graph 1
Compared with 6 months ago, how do you feel about the financial prospects for your company?
Very optimistic
Somewhat optimistic
Unchanged
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31,7
46,4
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However, the results also show that the positive outlook is a rather cautious one and, in terms of expectations, moderate optimism prevails. Given a year-on-year GDP growth of 2-3% and the existing risks regarding further developments, the Ukraine conflict, the economic sanctions against Russia, the low growth rate in the eurozone and the continuing risk of deflation, the cautious attitude is understandable.
Despite all this, 3.5% of CFOs see their company outlook as very optimistic; a year ago, nobody dared to look to the future with optimism.
© 2015 Deloitte Czech Republic10
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Expected GDP development
The improvement of the economic situation and the optimism of CFOs is probably the most visible in their assessment of the GDP’s development. In the survey, hardly anybody stated that they expected a recession. The number of CFOs expecting the economy to stagnate has dropped from over two thirds in 2013 to approximately 50% in 2014. The number of respondents expecting a moderate GDP growth, on the other hand, has increased from 29% to 50.6%. These expectations are in line with the current economic development, leading indicators such as the volume of new contracts, but also with the surveys conducted by the Czech Statistical Office or the development of the Purchasing Managers’ Index.
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CFOs expectations for the country economic GDP growth for the year 2015:
Recession
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The improvement of the economic situation and the optimism of CFOs are probably best shown in the assessment of the development of GDP. David Marek
© 2015 Deloitte Czech Republic11
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Expectations regarding the unemployment rate
The growth of production, sales and new contracts increases the demand for labour force. The unemployment rate (seasonality taken into account) has been dropping since the beginning of 2014. Positive expectations regarding the economic development are also reflected in the anticipated further improvements on the labour market. The share of CFOs expecting the unemployment rate to decrease somewhat has increased from 17.7% in 2013 to 22.4% in 2014. On the other hand, the number of answers stating they expected the unemployment rate to increase somewhat has dropped.
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Over the next 12 months how do you expect levels of unemployment to change in your country?
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Positive expectations for future economic development are also reflected in the anticipation of an improving labour market situation. David Marek
© 2015 Deloitte Czech Republic12
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Innovation of the business model
The stable economic macroeconomic situation reflects the stability in the corporate sector. This is why nearly half of CFOs do not consider business remodelling or restructuring a priority. In this aspect, the CFOs’ opinion has been stable in recent years.
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To what extent is business remodelling or restructuring likely to be a priority for your business over the next 12 months?
Strongly
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Nearly half of CFOs do not see company restructuring or business remodelling as a priority. Martin Tesař
© 2015 Deloitte Czech Republic13
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M&A
The reduced level of uncertainty regarding further developments, a moderately positive outlook into the future and a solid financial situation of companies are all factors leading to higher M&A expectations. Over half of CFOs, 55.4%, expect the volume of these transactions to increase somewhat over the next 12 months, whereas a year ago, more than half of CFOs did not expect M&A activity to change.
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Over the next 12 months how do you expect levels of M&A to change in your country?
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© 2015 Deloitte Czech Republic14
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Businessactivityfocus
The cautious attitude and the low willingness to take on risk is reflected in the low priority of new investments. The stable financial situation and the sufficiency of their own financial resources do not force CFOs to increase their companies’ financial liquidity or to give preference to reducing costs. Basedonthe answers,the companies’number one priority is increasing sales in the markets, where they are already operating. Almost 40% of the respondents marked this aim as being the most important. Expanding into new markets is a priority for 27.7% of CFOs.
Graph 6
What is your company’s business focus for the next 12 months? 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Růst tržeb (současné trhy)
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Nové investice
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Inserting a number from 1-6, attribute a priority to each option, being 1 – Least important and 6 – Most important
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Risk
© 2015 Deloitte Czech Republic15
© 2015 Deloitte Czech Republic16
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Cautiousness in taking greater risk
Although CFOs consider the economic situation more stable, their attitude remains cautious. This approach is documented by the still relatively low willingness to take on larger business risk. The situation has slightly improved as compared to 2013, however almost two thirds of respondents are still not willing to take greater risks. Given the previous developments, two recessions in quick succession, this prudence is understandable.
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Is this a good time to be taking greater risk onto your company’s balance sheets?
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The situation has improved slightly compared to 2013, however almost two thirds of respondents are still not willing to take greater risks. Ladislav Šauer
© 2015 Deloitte Czech Republic17
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Level of external financial and economic uncertainty
The growth in foreign demand supported by positive developments in countries that are the principal business partners, as well as the weaker CZK exchange rate increasing the competitiveness of Czech companies, has been reflected in the decreased uncertainty regarding external economic and financial developments.
More than a half of the CFOs questioned (57.6%) see this uncertainty as normal, which is a significant change compared to previous years. In 2013, over half of CFOs considered external economic and financial risks as being above average.
The calmer situation in the countries of the eurozone, endangered by the debt crisis, also contributed to the improved perception of these risks. The mitigation of these risks is also apparent from the decrease in bond revenue and market interest rates in the eurozone as well as in central and eastern European countries.
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How would you rate the general level of external financial and economic uncertainty facing your business?
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© 2015 Deloitte Czech Republic18
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Level of gearing
An opposite trend can be seen in the attitude to long-term funding. The number of companies that would like to employ a larger share of credit has increased, and so has the number of companies that would like to reduce their debt. Factors in favour of a higher usage of debt funding include lower interest rates and better credit availability. The lasting cautiousness and sufficiency of one’s own funds support decreasing the level of gearing.
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What is your aim for your level of gearing over the next 12 months?
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© 2015 Deloitte Czech Republic20
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The payment discipline of custormers
Despite a better economic situation and continuing moderate economic growth in 2014, the customer payment discipline did not improve. Four out of five CFOs believe that payment discipline has remained the same compared to the previous year. 12% of the CFOs even believe that payment discipline has become worse.
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In your experience, the payment discipline of customers over the last 12 months:
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© 2015 Deloitte Czech Republic21
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The payment discipline of custormers
More than half of CFOs believe that the main reason for delays in the payment of receivables includes customer‘s intentions. Nearly a fifth (17%) believe that this is because of administrative errors.
For the remaining third, the main reason relates to insolvency.
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In your opinion, the most frequent reason for the delay in the payment of receivables is as follows:
Customer‘s intention
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Active management of receivables remains the key activity for ensuring reliable cash-flow. ZbyněkBrtinský
Financing
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Gearing
The decrease in risk premiums and interest rates on the financial markets was also reflected in the decrease in the costs of companies’ debt financing. In the CFO Survey, this is apparent in the increased share of respondents (from 4.8% in 2013 to 9.5% in 2014), who anticipated financing costs for companies to decrease somewhat in the upcoming 12 months. More than half expect that the financing conditions will remain more or less the same.
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In your view how are financing costs for companies in your country likely to change over the next 12 months?
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The ability to service debt
The decrease in interest rates, combined with the improved economic situation, has improved the conditions for companies repaying their liabilities. The number of CFOs who expect their ability to service their debt to increase a little in the next three years has increased from 21.3% in 2013 to 35.8% in 2014. Also, the share of respondents who expect their ability to service their debt to decrease has decreased.
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Over the next three years, you expect your ability to service your debt to:
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© 2015 Deloitte Czech Republic25
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Availability of new credit
The mitigation of financial risks and a more willing attitude of the banks is documented by the growing share of CFOs, who stated that credit was more available now. Almost two thirds consider the credit situation normal. 27.7% actually state that credit is easily available, which is a significant improvement in comparison to previous years. In 2013, only 6.5%of managers considered new credit easily available.
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How would you rate the overall availability of new credit for companies nowadays?
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More than a quarter of CFOs consider corporate credits easily available. Martin Tesař
© 2015 Deloitte Czech Republic26
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Sources of funding – bank borrowing
The lasting environment of low interest rates is the reason why an increasing number of CFOs consider bank credit an attractive source of funding. Almost half of the respondents chose this answer in the survey.
However, the lack of own funds generated by positive economic results impedes a more significant usage of bank borrowing. This shows that the perception of the attractiveness of this source of funding does not have to be reflected in its higher usage, which is also proven by the overall statistics on corporate loans, which are increasing very slowly.
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Graph 15
Currently bank borrowing as a source of funding is:
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Bankcreditsarean attractive source of funding for half of the respondents. Ladislav Šauer
© 2015 Deloitte Czech Republic27
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Sources of funding – equity raising
A sufficient amount of own funding as well as cheap debt financing are limiting the willingness of companies to gain funds in the form of share capital. The significant decrease in interest rates has reduced the attractiveness of this form of funding to such an extent that the number of CFOs who considered it attractive has decreased from 18.5% in 2012 to 15% in 2013 and to under 10% in 2014.
The reduced attractiveness of this form of funding on the Prague Stock Exchange, which limits the possibilities of a successful IPO, is also a contributing factor to a certain extent.
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Graph 16
Currently equity raising, as a source of funding is:
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Talent
© 2015 Deloitte Czech Republic28
© 2015 Deloitte Czech Republic29
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Shortages in talent in senior positions
Answers to the question regarding the shortage of labour force classified by qualification give an interesting picture of the Czech labour market. Compared to 2013, last year, in the CFOs’ opinion, the shortage of labour force has increased on both ends of the spectrum. While in 2013, 15.7% of respondents claimed there was a shortage of talent on junior positions, last year, 28.3% gave this answer. At the same time, however, the number of experienced employees for senior positions has increased according to CFOs. In 2013, 27.5% of managers mentioned this problem, as compared to 34.1% last year. The perceived shortage of suitable candidates for top-level positions at companies has doubled.
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Graph 17
Where do you expect significant shortages in talent in finance over the next year?
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© 2015 Deloitte Czech Republic30
For more information on the Deloitte CFO Survey please contact:
About the survey
The 6th CE CFO survey took place in October & November 2014. A total of 550 CFOs across 14 countries completed our survey. The Deloitte CFO Survey is the only survey that seeks to establish the views of CFOs in relation to the financial markets, economic outlook and business trends on a quarterly basis.
Deloitte CE CFO survey is a “pulse survey” that provides CFOs with information regarding their peers’ thinking across a variety of topics. It is not, nor is it intended to be, scientific in its number of respondents, selection of respondents, or response rate – especially within individual industries.
We would like to thank all participating CFOs for their efforts in completing our survey. We hope the report makes an interesting read, clearly highlighting the challenges facing CFOs, and providing an important benchmark to understand how your organization rates among peers.
Martin TesařPartner, [email protected]
Ladislav Šauer Director, [email protected]
David MarekChief [email protected]
Zbyněk BrtinskýPartner, [email protected]
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