ceemea & latam daybookpg.jrj.com.cn/acc/res/cn_res/invest/2016/5/19/934b... · 5/19/2016 ·...

Deutsche Bank Markets Research

Global

Periodical

CEEMEA & Latam Daybook

Date

19 May 2016

Thursday, 19 May 2016

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Deutsche Bank AG/London

Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MCI (P) 057/04/2016.

Pascal Moura

Head of Research

(+971) 4 4283-864

Mairead Smith

Equity Focus

(+44) 20 754-71054

CEEMEA Companies RECOMMENDATION CHANGE Bashneft (Sell, TP RUB2,600.00) - Unreasonable expectations

TARGET PRICE CHANGE Rostelecom (Buy, TP RUB100.00) - Solid results in Digital under unexciting financial performance Spar Group Limited (Buy, TP ZAR235.00) - H1'16 results: better than face value Suggests

COMPANY UPDATE ICL Alert (Hold, TP ILS19.00) - A tough start to 2016 in fertilizers

LATAM Companies SECTOR UPDATE Metals & Mining Alert - Daily prices and news: US sets final dumping duties on China/Japan CRC

STRATEGY Asset Allocation - Reloading On Value: A Second Chance, DB SYNDEX: Index Change Monitor - One Change Effective Today

MACRO US Daily Economic Notes - What will the data and Dudley say today?

VALUATION CEEMEA and Latam valuation tables

Stock Performance(US$)–Gainers & Losers (CEEMEA) Top 10 Ticker Price %Chg

Globaltrans GLTR LI 4.2 5.5

Aksigorta AKGRT TI 0.7 4.3

QIWI QIWI US 11.6 4.2

Bashneft BANE RX 47.0 3.7

Koza Altin KOZAL TI 5.3 3.7

Severstal SVST LI 10.9 3.6

Uralkali URKA RM 2.7 3.4

Alhokair ALHOKAIR AB 10.6 2.6

Barloworld BAW SJ 4.3 2.5

Halyk Bank HSBK LI 4.2 2.4

Bottom 10 Ticker Price %Chg

Transneft TRNFP RX 2906.2 -6.9

ICL ICL IT 4.0 -6.7

Energa ENG PW 2.7 -6.0

RBPlat RBP SJ 2.7 -5.1

Netia NET PW 1.2 -4.7

Lewis Group Ltd LEW SJ 2.9 -4.6

Pfleiderer Grajewo GRJ PW 7.7 -4.0

Mechel MTL US 1.8 -3.8

KGHM KGH PW 16.3 -3.6

Tofas TOASO TI 7.2 -3.6

Stock Performance(US$)–Gainers & Losers (LATAM) Top 10 Ticker Price %Chg

Smiles SMLE3 BZ 11.9 4.1

Cencosud CENCOSUD CI 2.6 2.7

Multiplus MPLU3 BZ 9.9 2.3

Bolsa Mexicana BOLSAA MM 1.5 2.3

Kimberly-Clark de Mexico

KIMBERA MM 2.3 2.1

Alfa ALFAA MM 1.8 2.0

BTG Pactual BBTG11 BZ 5.3 1.9

Chedraui CHDRAUIB MM

2.6 1.8

Bladex BLX UN 25.6 1.7

MercadoLibre MELI US 132.5 1.3

Bottom 10 Ticker Price %Chg

Petrobras PN PETR3 BS 3.4 -4.2

Vale VALE UN 4.1 -4.2

Santander Mexico BSMX US 8.9 -4.1

Cielo CIEL3 BZ 9.2 -4.1

Ecopetrol EC US 9.3 -3.8

Cia Hering HGTX3 BS 3.9 -3.6

Marfrig MRFG3 BS 1.8 -3.2

Raia Drogasil RADL3 BZ 15.9 -3.1

Banorte GFNORTEO MM

5.2 -3.1

Hypermarcas SA HYPE3 BS 8.5 -3.0

Source::Bloomberg Finance LP

19 May 2016



Russia / CIS Latam

Ivan Kachkovski Banks +44 207 5411735 Tito Labarta Financials/Banks +1 212 250 5944

Georgy Buzhenitsa Metal & Mining +7 495 933 9221 Myles Walton Aerospace Defense +1 212 250 5528

Grant Sporre Metals & Mining +207 44545 8170 Jose Yordan Food&Beverage/Retailing +1 212 250 5528

Pavel Kushnir Oil & Gas +7 495 933 9240 Katina Metzidakis Food&Beverage/Retailing +1 212 250 2009

Igor Semenov Telecommunication +7 495 933 9238 Rene Kleyweg Metals & Mining & Cement +44 207 5418178

Erol Danis Consumer +90 212 3190327 Alexander Burgansky Oil & Gas +971 4 428 3261

Aleksandar Stojanovski Transportation +971 4 361 1786 Marcel Moraes Retail +55 11 2113 5976

Ross Sandler Internet +1 415 262 2028

Michael Linenberg Airline +1 212 250 9254

South Africa Richa Talwar Airline +1 212 250 9469

Stefan Swanepoel Banks/Financials +27 11 775 7369 Catherine O' Brien Airline +1 212 250 8949

Bankole Ubogu Banks/Financials +27 11 775 7254 Cesar Arias Senior Economist Andean countries +1 212 250-0664

John Kim TMT, Business Services & Packaging +27 11 775 7013 Alexis Milo Senior Economist Mexico +52 555201 8534

Patrick Mann Gold & Platinum, O&G +27 11 775 7268 Jose Carlos de Faria Senior Economist Brazil +55 11 2113 5185

Anna Mulholland Metals & Mining, Materials +44 207 5418172 Hongtao Jiang Head of EM Sovereign Credit +1 212 250-2524

Rene Kleyweg Metals & Mining, Materials +44 207 5418178 Jed Evans Head of EM Analytics +1 212 250-8605

Alexander Burgansky Oil & Gas +971 4 428 3261 Guilherme Marone EM Derivative and Latam Strategist +1 212 250-8640

Avinash Kallapersad Healthcare, Beverage, Luxury +27 11 775 7268 Eduardo Vieira Head of EM Corporates +1 212 250-7568

Sean Holmes Retail, Real Estate +27 11 775 7292 Assaf Shtauber Latam FX Strategist +1 212 250-592

Ryan Eichstadt Retail, Real Estate, Food Producer +27 11 775 7249

Caron Bramwell Retail, Real Estate, Food Producer +27 11 775 7069

Danelee Masia Economist +27 11 775 7267

Turkey Greece

Kazim Andac Banks, Strategy +90 212 3190315 George Saravelos FX Strategist +44 207 5479118

Hilal Varol Banks, insurance, Conglomerate +90 212 3190332 Ivan Kachkovski Banks +971 4 428 3261

Athmane Benzerroug Construction, RE +90 212 3190324 Tomasz Krukowski O&G +48 22 579 8732

Erol Danis Non Financials +90 212 3190327 Priyal Mulji Construction +44 207 5472094

Koray Pamir Non Financials +90 212 3190327 James Brand Utility +44 207 5474705

Kubilay Ozturk Economist +44 207 5458774

CE3

Tomasz Krukowski O&G, M&M, Industrials, Utilities +48 22 579 8732

Marcin Jablczynski Banks +48 22 579 8733

James Brand Utility +44 207 5474705 Nigeria

Gautam Kalani Economist +44 207 545 7066 Raj Madha Banks +97 1 4 4283 781

Caroline Grady Economist +44 207 545 9913

Middle East

Ryan Ayache Banks +971 4 428 3261 Pakistan

Raj Madha Banks +97 1 4 4283 781 Raj Madha Banks +97 1 4 4283 781

Aleksandar Stojanovski Chemicals/Consumer/Transport/Strategist +971 4 361 1786

Athmane Benzerroug Construction, Infrastructure, Utilities +971 4 428 3938

Marc Hammoud Telco, Consumer, Healthcare +971 4 4283910

Melhem Melhem Economist +966 11 273 9624

Emerging EMEA/Latam Research

Head of Company Research

Pascal Moura +971 44283864

19 May 2016



ASIAN MARKET

TOP STORIES FITT Research: China Autos – What you should know about China's new energy vehicle (NEV) market (Vincent Ha) Chinese Banks – No more hiding behind shadow (Hans Fan) Tencent (0700.HK, Buy) – Gaming covers for soft ads (Alan Hellawell)

INITIATION OF COVERAGE Yutong Bus (600066.SS, Buy) – Riding on the new energy drive; initiating coverage with a Buy (Fei Sun)

RECOMMENDATION CHANGES Malaysia Banks – MSCI rebalance & weak earnings to halt re-rating; D/G MAY to Sell (Sukrit Khatri) Bharat Forge Limited (BFRG.BO, Hold) – Growth likely to remain subdued in the near term; downgrading to Hold (Amyn Pirani) Motherson Sumi Systems (MOSS.NS, Hold) – Current stock price factors in potential business turnaround; d/g to Hold (Amyn Pirani) Tamron (7740.T, Hold) – Real recovery by Europe’s ILC market a while off (Revised) (Yu Yoshida)

ESTIMATES AND TARGET PRICE CHANGES

Sino Biopharmaceutical (1177.HK, Buy) – A quarter impacted by FX (Jack Hu)

Vipshop (VIPS.N, Buy) – Stock overshoots on mild miss (Alan Hellawell)

Bangkok Dusit Med Serv (BDMS.BK, Hold) – Don't count your chicken before

they hatch (Pope Guruvanich)

Bangkok Life Assurance (BLA.BK, Hold) – TP upside widens but bond

volatility risk remains high (Revised) (Peach Patharavanakul)

PNB (PNBK.BO, Sell) – 4QFY16 – Huge slippages and sharply lower NIMs

(Manish Karwa)

Canon (7751.T, Hold) – Structural downside risk remains for LBPs (Yu

Yoshida)

K'S Holdings (8282.T, Hold) – Forecast revision: consumption tax hike likely to

be postponed (Takahiro Kazahaya)

Ricoh (7752.T, Hold) – Recovery likely from excessive price declines in FY3/16

(Yu Yoshida)

Suzuki Motor (7269.T, Hold) – Looks like much ado about nothing (Kurt

Sanger)

Tosho (8920.T, Buy) – Earnings update; raising TP (Junichi Shimizu)

Yamada Denki (9831.T, Hold) – Forecast revision: Consumption tax hike likely

to be postponed (Takahiro Kazahaya)

STRATEGY/ECONOMICS

Data Flash – Japan: ?Q 2016 GDP (1st prelim. release) (Kentaro Koyama)

Japan FX Insights – JPY outlook after stronger-than-expected GDP (Taisuke

Tanaka)

US Daily Economic Notes – What will the data and Dudley say today? (Joseph

Lavorgna)

Asset Allocation – Reloading On Value: A Second Chance (Binky Chadha)

ADDITIONAL RESEARCH

China Property – NBS 70 cities sees record high MoM growth in April at

+1.03% (Tony Tsang)

CSPC Pharma (1093.HK, Buy) – A strong quarter as expected (Jack Hu)

FIH Mobile Limited (2038.HK, Buy) – Nokia handsets + MSFT Lumia, a better

deal than it appears (Birdy Lu)

Songcheng Performance (300144.SZ, Buy) – Another romantic show -

Zhangjiajie Romantic Show in Hunan (Tallan Zhou)

LG Chem (051910.KS, Buy) – Implication on the new Chinese EV battery

policy (Shawn Park)

19 May 2016



ADDITIONAL RESEARCH (Contd..)

The Realty Singapore – GLP to report tomorrow morning, and more... (Joy

Wang)

Minor International PLC (MINT.BK, Hold) – Now Tivoli's turn to drive hotels

(Chalinee Congmuang)

Sansiri (SIRI.BK, Hold) – 1Q16 profit in-line, 4Q16 expected to be strongest

(Nash Shivaruchiwong)

Gujarat Gas (GGAS.BO, Buy) – Volume and margins to improve (Harshad

Katkar)

Shriram Transport Finance (SRTR.BO, Buy) – Finance businesses of Piramal

and Shriram Group could merge (Manish Shukla)

Insurance sector – Are investors prepared for an unexpected rise in rates?

(Masao Muraki)

Investment trust monthly – Apr: Substantial outflow from Japanese equity

investment trusts (Masao Muraki)

Japanese Banks – Major banks' FY3/16 results: Negative interest rate and

shareholder returns (Yoshinobu Yamada)

Panasonic (6752.T, Buy) – IR Day 2016: Sales and profit growth to be

supported by return to B2C (Hiroshi Taguchi)

Retail Sector – Japan Foreign Visitors Monthly April 2016 (Takahiro Kazahaya)

Retail Sector: Morning Comment – Nitori to open Shinjuku store; World's

results (Takahiro Kazahaya)

ASIA - APAC Equities - APAC Research In Focus

UPCOMING DB CONFERENCES in CEEMEA and LATAM dbAccess Asia Conference- Singapore- 23-27 May Global financial Services Conference – New York- 31 May-1 June dbAccess Global Consumer Conference – Paris- 14-16 June dbAcesss Latin America Consumer Conference Day – London- 17 June dbAccess South Africa Conference - London 22-23 June Global Emerging Markets Conference – New York- 7-9 September

UPCOMING DB CONFERENCES in ASIA dbAccess Asia Conference @ Singapore - May 23 - 27, 2016

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NAME COUNTRY DB EPS FY1 DB EPS FY2 DB EPS FY3 RECOMMENDATION TARGET PRICE

From To Change IBES

DB vs IBES

(%) From To Change IBES

DB vs IBES


DB vs IBES

(%) From To From To Change

CEEMEA Spar Group Limited South Africa 9.7 9.8 +1.3 9.8 -0.1 10.5 10.6 +1.0 10.9 -2.7 11.8 11.9 +1.0 12.3 -3.0 Buy Buy 204.0 235.0 +15.2

National Bank of Kuwait Kuwait 0.1 0.1 -4.3 0.1 -25.5 0.1 0.1 -6.1 0.1 -19.6 0.1 0.1 -6.1 0.1 -17.7 Buy Buy 860.0 830.0 -3.5

Rostelecom Russia 5.1 4.5 -12.6 9.8 -54.2 6.7 4.6 -31.2 11.6 -60.6 Buy Buy 96.0 100.0 +4.2

Bashneft Russia Hold Sell 2,600.0 2,600.0

ASIA BYD China 1.2 1.4 +20.0 1.0 40.2 1.6 1.9 +18.3 1.2 66.0 2.0 2.3 +20.0 Hold Buy 47.0 50.8 +8.1

BYD-A China 1.2 1.4 +20.0 1.6 1.9 +18.3 2.0 2.3 +20.0 Sell Sell 39.5 42.6 +7.8

Motherson Sumi Systems India 10.6 11.6 +9.4 13.9 13.4 -3.8 17.4 16.8 -3.4 Buy Hold 270.0 285.0 +5.6

Bangkok Dusit Medical Service

Thailand 0.5 0.5 +3.2 0.7 -18.8 0.6 0.6 +1.4 0.8 -21.4 0.8 0.9 Hold Hold 21.4 22.3 +4.2

Tencent China 4.4 4.5 +1.4 4.4 0.6 5.6 5.6 +0.7 5.6 0.0 6.2 6.3 +1.5 5.5 13.4 Buy Buy 175.0 167.0 -4.6

JSW Steel India -15.1 57.2 +0.0 108.7 -47.3 107.6 111.8 +3.9 129.2 -13.5 118.3 123.9 +4.7 113.5 9.2 Buy Buy 1,575.0 1,601.0 +1.7

CSPC Pharma China 0.3 0.3 -0.5 0.4 -2.5 0.4 0.4 -1.0 0.4 -5.3 0.5 0.5 -1.0 0.5 -1.9 Buy Buy 8.0 8.0

Sino Biopharmaceutical Hong Kong 0.3 0.3 -0.5 0.4 -31.8 0.3 0.3 +1.9 0.5 -32.4 0.4 0.4 +6.9 Buy Buy 6.5 6.4 -1.5

Vipshop China 5.0 4.6 -9.1 5.4 -15.4 7.1 6.3 -12.4 7.5 -16.2 7.8 7.0 -10.9 Buy Buy 18.6 16.7 -10.2

Bharat Forge Limited India 33.8 28.3 -16.5 39.6 -28.6 39.4 32.8 -16.8 50.7 -35.4 49.2 41.1 -16.5 55.9 -26.5 Buy Hold 850.0 700.0 -17.6

Gujarat Gas India 13.6 11.3 -17.0 47.8 -76.3 35.7 34.0 -4.7 56.5 -39.9 44.1 42.4 -3.7 64.2 -33.9 Buy Buy 730.0 730.0

Agri. Bank of China China 0.6 0.6 Hold Hold 3.6 3.1 -13.1

Agri. Bank of China China 0.6 0.6 -9.0 0.6 0.7 -13.1 Buy Buy 4.1 3.6 -13.0

AMMB Holdings Malaysia 0.5 0.6 -23.2 0.5 0.7 -29.4 0.5 Hold Hold 4.7 4.7

Bank of Beijing China 1.4 1.8 -18.6 1.6 1.7 -8.0 Buy Buy 12.8 11.8 -7.5

Bank of Chongqing China 1.1 1.2 Hold Sell 6.8 5.0 -25.8

Bank of Communications China 1.0 0.9 13.1 0.9 0.9 -4.1 Buy Buy 7.5 6.1 -17.8

Bank of Communications China 1.0 0.9 Hold Hold 6.5 5.3 -17.8

Bank of Nanjing China 2.5 2.4 4.2 3.1 Hold Sell 16.9 12.2 -28.1

Bank of Ningbo China 1.9 2.2 -16.3 2.1 Hold Sell 13.8 9.5 -31.1

CEB China

Hold 3.6

China CITIC Bank China 0.9 1.0 -10.8 0.9 1.1 -16.9 Buy Hold 6.3 4.7 -26.3

China CITIC Bank China 0.9 0.9 Sell Sell 5.5 4.0 -26.2

China Construction Bank China 0.9 0.9 Hold Buy 6.2 5.7 -7.0

China Construction Bank China 0.9 1.0 -9.6 0.9 1.1 -12.0 Buy Buy 7.1 6.6 -6.9

China Everbright Bank China 0.7 0.7 -7.1 0.7 0.8 -9.8 Hold Hold 4.7 3.1 -34.6

China Merchants Bank China 2.4 2.7 -9.9 2.6 2.9 -12.3 Buy Hold 20.3 17.3 -15.0

China Merchants Bank China 2.4 2.7 -11.9 2.6 3.1 -16.4 Buy Buy 23.5 20.0 -15.0

China Minsheng China 1.3 1.5 -10.8 1.4 1.6 -10.4 Buy Hold 10.5 7.9 -25.1

Source: Bloomberg Finance LP

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From To Change IBES

DB vs IBES


DB vs IBES


DB vs IBES

(%) From To From To Change

CEEMEA China Minsheng Bank China 1.3 1.5 -11.7 1.4 1.6 -9.7 Hold Sell 9.1 6.8 -25.2

Chongqing Rural Bank China 0.8 0.9 -9.0 0.9 1.0 -8.1 Buy Buy 6.3 5.1 -18.0

CIMB Group Malaysia 0.4 0.6 -34.3 0.4 0.6 -25.5 0.5 Hold Hold 4.6 4.4 -4.3

Hong Leong Bank Malaysia 0.7 1.3 -44.6 0.9 1.4 -34.1 Sell Sell 12.1 12.1

Huishang Bank China 0.6 0.6 Hold Sell 3.7 2.8 -24.9

ICBC China 0.8 0.8 -8.7 0.8 0.9 -9.4 Buy Buy 6.1 5.7 -6.7 Industrial and Commercial Bank of China China 0.8 0.8 -7.4 0.8 0.8 -4.6 Buy Buy 5.3 4.9 -6.8

Industrial Bank China 2.8 3.1 -6.8 3.1 3.4 -6.6 Hold Sell 17.5 12.2 -30.4

Malayan Banking Malaysia 0.6 0.9 -24.9 0.6 0.8 -23.0 0.6 Buy Sell 9.8 7.4 -24.5

Ping An Bank China 1.6 1.9 -13.7 1.9 2.1 -11.4 Buy Hold 14.4 10.4 -28.3

PNB India 1.6 29.8 -94.7 9.9 35.8 -72.4 12.2 48.0 Sell Sell 70.0 65.0 -7.1

Public Bank Malaysia 1.4 1.3 3.0 1.5 1.4 5.6 1.7 Hold Buy 20.1 22.0 +9.5

Shanghai Pudong Bank China 2.8 3.0 -4.8 3.2 3.3 -3.8 Hold Sell 17.1 12.4 -27.7

Yutong Bus China 1.6 1.8 2.0

Buy 25.9

Source: Bloomberg Finance LP

Rating

SellEmerging EuropeRussia

Oil & Gas

Company

BashneftDate18 May 2016

Recommendation Change

Unreasonable expectations

Reuters Bloomberg Exchange TickerBANE.MM BANE RX MCX BANE

Forecasts And Ratios

Year End Dec 31 2014A 2015A 2016E 2017E 2018E

Revenue (USDm) 16,779 10,061 8,301 10,929 13,738

EBITDA (USDm) 2,706 2,103 1,928 2,304 2,896

Net Income (USDm) 1,234 973 1,028 1,316 1,747

EPS (USD) 8.51 5.78 6.07 7.77 10.32

DB EPS growth (%) -3.6 -32.0 5.0 28.0 32.7

P/E (DB EPS) (x) 5.6 5.2 7.5 5.8 4.4

EV/EBITDA (x) 4.4 3.4 4.9 4.1 3.1

DPS (USD) 1.55 1.57 2.98 4.01 5.23

Yield (%) 3.2 5.2 6.6 8.8 11.5

Source: Deutsche Bank estimates, company data

Bashneft recommendation cut to Sell

Price at 17 May 2016 (RUB) 2,932.00

Price Target (RUB) 2,600.00

52-week range (RUB) 2,936.00 - 1,705.00

Pavel Kushnir

Research Analyst(+971) 4 361 1732

[email protected]

Key changes

Rating Hold to Sell

Source: Deutsche Bank

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Bashneft

MICEX Index (Rebased)

Performance (%) 1m 3m 12m

Absolute 1.1 23.8 36.5

MICEX Index 0.1 7.8 12.9


It has been several months since the government initiated a serious discussion about the privatisation of Bashneft, an asset it received in nationalisation through arbitration about 18 months ago. As no cash was paid for the asset, it should be easy to part with it to refill budget coffers. President Vladimir Putin removed Bashneft from the list of strategic enterprises yesterday, opening the way for the sale of the 50% federal stake. An article in Vedomosti suggests the

this is excessive and unreasonable as Bashneft shares are already overvalued. We downgrade our recommendation from Hold to Sell.

bring the sale to a haltThe valuation of Bashneft shares is relative in the context of privatisation(portfolio vs. strategic). We hold the view that any vertically integrated Russian company would benefit from owning Bashneft, through an increase in refining cover. As synergies are expected to be received, a premium can indeed be paid by those VICs to the price portfolio investors are willing to pay. In addition, the liquidity risk premium is not something that a strategic investor would care much about. The stock has been very well Vedomostiarticle, which suggests that the Russian government wants a 100% premium to the current market price. That would come on top of the c.50% growth (in roubles) in Bashneft shares in the last few months. We see this demand asunreasonable and potentially creating risks to the privatisation progress.

Exit for minorities unchanged a buyout by a future privatisation winnerAs the 50% threshold would be crossed by a strategic investor in the privatisation auction, we believe amake an offer to the ordinary share holders. Therefore, minority shareholders should benefit from the same price in a potential future buyout of their shares.

Valuation and risks We derive our 12-month target price from an APT-based DCF valuation. The key assumptions of our DCF model are a RWACC of 12.8% (RROE of 14.0%) and TGR of 1%. Among the upside risks, we see stronger-than-expected crude oil and refined product prices, in particular on the Russian domestic market, and a decision to pay dividends above our current expectations.

19 May 2016CEEMEA & Latam Daybook


Rating

BuyEmerging Europe

Telecoms

Company

RostelecomDate18 May 2016

Forecast Change

Solid results in Digital under unexciting financial performance

Reuters Bloomberg Exchange TickerRTKM.MM RTKM RX MCX RTKM


Year End Dec 31 2014A 2015A 2016E 2017E

Revenue (RUBm) 310,917 297,354 301,029 301,233

EBITDA (RUBm) 105,376 100,839 101,865 102,260

Net Income (RUBm) 39,370 13,944 11,360 11,630

P/E (DB EPS) (x) 6.1 15.7 22.0 21.5

EV/EBITDA (x) 3.6 3.6 4.0 4.0

DPS (RUB) 3.34 5.91 5.96 6.06

Yield (%) 3.5 6.8 6.0 6.1

Source: Deutsche Bank estimates, company data

Reiterating Buy with target price of RUB100

Price at 17 May 2016 (RUB) 98.50

Price Target (RUB) 100.00

52-week range (RUB) 100.07 - 76.50

Igor Semenov

Research Analyst(+971) 4 361-1733

[email protected]

Key changes

Target Price 96.00 to 100.00 4.2%



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Rostelecom

MICEX Index (Rebased)


Absolute 2.6 13.2 23.2

MICEX Index 0.1 7.8 12.9


Rostelecom continues to deliver solid commercial results and to gain share in broadband and pay TV, as well as other digital services, which helps offset the decline in the traditional line of business. Overall, 1Q16 numbers supported our positive view of the company as a dominant broadband provider with a strong and competitive product, significant room for efficiency gains, and an improved dividend policy. We slightly raise our target price and reiterate our Buy rating.1Q16: solid commercial progress in broadband, pay TV; DPS confirmedFor 1Q16, Rostelecom has reported results in line with our expectations, with 1% revenue growth and 1% EBITDA growth. While this does not sound too exciting, we actually think this is a strong achievement,revenue mix and pressures related to weak traditional lines of business (in terms of both global industrial trends and a weak Russian macroeconomic backdrop). Rostelecom continues to gain share in broadband and its subscriber-base growth even picked up in 1Q16, while in pay TV, subscriber-base growth is steadily increasing. Thus, it is solidifying its dominance in broadband and pay TV. Traditional fixed remained weak, however, and we expect this trend to continue. Management confirmed 2015 DPS of RUB5.92

Tele2 Russia: EBITDA margin dips and losses widen, but top line picks up -owned subsidiary, Tele2 Russia, significantly widened its

losses in 1Q16 as its EBITDA margin fell to 12%. We believe this is related to both growth in sales and marketing expenses (on subscriber acquisitions and advertising) and a rise in interconnect costs, as its share in the newly-launched Moscow market is low. However, there are positives too: revenue growth improved to 5%, ahead of the competition, while the rise in interconnect means that users are active. We believe that further user base growth and recent upward tariff revisions should help improve financials going forward.Valuation and risksWe raise our target price by 4% to RUB100, reflecting slightly lower WACC(see p.10 for details). We use a WACC of 14% and 0% TGR. On our estimates, Rostelecom is trading at a c.10% discount to peers on 2017F EV/EBITDA. Downside risks include faster-than-expected erosion of voice revenues, market share losses in broadband, failure to deliver on cost cutting, inefficient capex, dilutive M&A and failure to deliver on dividend commitments.



Rating

BuySub-Saharan AfricaSouth Africa

General Retailers

Company

Spar Group LimitedDate18 May 2016

Forecast Change

H1'16 results: better than face value suggests

Reuters Bloomberg Exchange TickerSPPJ.J SPP SJ JNB SPPJ


Year End Sep 30 2015A 2016E 2017E 2018E

DB EPS (ZAR) 8.66 9.84 10.61 11.91

OLD DB EPS (ZAR) 8.66 9.71 10.50 11.79

% Change 0.0% 1.3% 1.0% 1.0%

Source: Deutsche Bank estimates, company data1 DB EPS is fully diluted and excludes non-recurring items2 Multiples and yields calculations use average historical prices for past years and spot prices for current and future years, except P/B which uses the year end close

A solid performance, ignoring the noise

Price at 18 May 2016 (ZAR) 208.86

Price Target (ZAR) 235.00

52-week range (ZAR) 218.70 - 165.43

Sean Holmes


[email protected]

Ryan Eichstadt

Research Analyst

(+27) 11 [email protected]

Key changes

Target Price 204.00 to 235.00 15.2%



80

120

160

200

240

5/14 11/14 5/15 11/15

Spar Group Limited

FTSE/JSE ALL SHARE (Rebased)


Absolute -0.5 12.1 8.4

FTSE/JSE ALL SHARE -1.2 5.4 -3.5


t of +12% and Bloomberg consensus est of +7%. On face value, the performance across key metrics was mixed. However, ignoring some of the noise, Spar posted a strong set of results. The SA Spar business performed in line with our expectations: holding EBIT margin, whilst gaining market share. The Ireland business grew sales ahead of our forecasts, but EBIT margins were under pressure (Londis integration costs). Looking ahead, management is optimistic about H2 prospects. Maintain Buy on valuation/growth potential.

16 See fig 1.

At store level, food & liquor sales rose 10% H2 CY15 (+7% H1 CY15),

H2 CY15. See fig 2.

Spar grew same store sales by 9% H2 CY15 (+5% H1 CY15), compared to

See fig 3.

Build-It increased its wholesale turnovesupported strong growth outside of SA.

margin (notwithstanding price investment). Margins benefitted from: increase in DC distribution, shift to perishable products, more private label.

Total ZAR same store growth, 18% contribution from Londis acquisition and 22% currency gain.

EBIT margin declined 5bps (off a low base), due to integration costs associated with Londis. Management sees EBIT margins exceeding 2% FY16E (1.81% FY15), helped by DC consolidation and better efficiencies.

Target price of R235 May-17E based on 21x 12m fwd P/ERisks: increased competition, inability to pass on higher inflation, volatile ZAR.



Rating

HoldEmerging EuropeIsrael

Fertilizers

Company

ICL AlertDate18 May 2016

Results

A tough start to 2016 in fertilizers

Reuters Bloomberg Exchange TickerICL.TA ICL IT TLV ICL

Price at 17 May 2016 (ILS) 16.24

Price Target (ILS) 19.00

52-week range (ILS) 27.04 - 14.53

Virginie Boucher-Ferte


[email protected]

Tim Jones

Research Analyst


Martin Dunwoodie, CFA

Research Analyst(+44) 20 [email protected]

Stock data

Market Cap (US$) 5,408.33

Free float (%) 39

Tel Aviv 100 Index 1,211.5


Key data

FYE 12/31 2015A 2016E 2017E

Revenue (USDm)

5,405 5,265 5,518

Net Profit (USDm)

509 602 673

EBITDA (USDm) 1,195 1,127 1,226

DB EPS (USD) 0.55 0.47 0.53

DPS (USD) 0.28 0.33 0.37

P/E (DB EPS) (x) 11.2 9.0 8.0

EV/EBITDA (x) 9.7 7.7 7.1


Q1 16 Adjusted EBIT down 58% YoYQ1 16 Adj EBIT declined 58% YoY to $115m due to weakness in fertilizers. This was 15% below DB and cons. Q1 16 sales declined 10% YoY to $1,265 m (in line with DBe and 3% below cons) due to lower vol. (mainly potash) and lower prices. Adj. net income declined 56% YoY to $85m. Operating cashflow was up significantly YoY helped by working capital inflows and absence of loss from divestures (Q1 15). Net interest bearing financial liabilities increased 6.2%YoY and came in at $3,431 m. Conf call 13:30 UK 00-800-279-5993.Weakness in Potash, Phosphate & Fertilizers and Performance ProductsBy division, Potash Adj. EBIT declined 85% YoY to $27m due to lower averageprices (down 19.5% YoY to $235 /ton), weak volumes (down 16% YoY to893kt) and negative FX. Margins were weaker than expected due to a weakermix (lower sales of higher margin Dead Sea potash to China/India vs. lower margin European potash). Phosphate & Fertilizers Adj. EBIT was down 67%with the China JV loss making (-$14m) due to very tough demand/pricing conditions. IP Adj. EBIT was up 47% driven by higher prices (positive mix due to new generation FRs), lower costs and efficiency plans. PP Adj. EBIT was down 17% due to sale of non core business and mix effect.No change in fertilizer market conditions so far. Dividend policy adjusted. HoldICL does not provide a formal outlook; however, the company is saying that Q2 has so far developed in line with Q1 with no pick up in Fertilizers. The company has also adjusted its dividend policy for 2016 and 2017 to a "payout ratio of up to 50% of its adjusted net income" from "payout ratio of up to 70% of its adjusted net income" given the challenging market conditions. The company has also adapted its organizational structure in order to enhanceefficiency gains (the company increased the cost savings target to $475-500m savings by 2018 vs. $425-470m previously) and execution capabilities. The stock trades at 9x 16E P/E which is not expensive but with ongoing potash supply risk and a lack of catalyst we keep a HOLD.

Figure 1: ICL Q1 16 results (USD m)Q1 15 Q1 16 ± % Q1 16E vs DBe vs Cons

Sales 1,403 1,265 -9.8% 1,259 0.4% -2.8%Adj. EBIT 275 115 -58.2% 135 -15.0% -14.5%-Potash 177 27 -85% 57 -52.5% NA-Phosphates & Fertilizer 43 14 -67% 35 -59.8% NA-Industrial Products 32 47 47% 34 39.9% NA-Performance Products 30 25 -17% 20 24.3% NA-Others -7 2 -129% -10 -119.8% NAAdj. Net Income 193 85 -56% 98 -13.0% -0.3%Source: Deutsche Bank, Company Data, Bloomberg.



North AmericaUnited StatesIndustrialsMetals & Mining

Periodical

Metals & Mining Alert

Date18 May 2016

Periodical

Daily prices and news: US sets final dumping duties on China/Japan CRC

Jorge Beristain, CFA Chris Terry

Research Analyst Research Analyst

(+1) 203 863-2381 (+1) 212 [email protected] [email protected]

Jeremy Kliewer

Research Associate(+1) 904 [email protected]

Focus stocks

Alcoa (AA.N),USD9.30 Buy Price Target USD13.00Barrick (ABX.N),USD19.37 Hold Price Target USD15.00Freeport-McMoRan (FCX.N),USD11.51 Hold Price Target USD11.50Nucor (NUE.N),USD46.56 Hold Price Target USD52.00Pan American Silver (PAAS.OQ),USD16.23 Hold Price Target USD10.50Vale (VALE.N),USD4.31 Buy Price Target USD6.50US Steel (X.N),USD14.13 Sell Price Target USD8.00


Price performance %WTD %YTD

3M LME aluminum 0.6% 2.5%

3M LME copper 0.6% -1.0%

3M LME lead 0.7% -4.0%

3M LME molybdenum 0.0% 28.1%

3M LME nickel 1.8% -0.3%

3M LME zinc 0.8% 18.3%

Comex gold 0.5% 20.5%

Comex silver 0.8% 24.5%

China HRC 0.2% 35.1%

SHFE rebar 2.1% 15.6%

Iron ore (62% Fe) 7.5% 32.8%

Coking coal, FOB Aus -1.6% 17.9%

Freight (BCI) 23.8% 110.2%

Brent 3.0% 32.2%

WTI 4.5% 30.4%

Natgas -2.3% -12.4%

Thermal (Newcastle) 0.6% 0.5%

Source: mysteel.net, Platts, MB, Bloomberg Finance LP

Industrials (/lb): aluminum $0.70 (-0.2%), copper $2.11 (+0.3%), lead $0.78 (-0.9%), molybdenum $6.83 (+0.0%); nickel $3.99 (+0.9%); zinc $0.86 (+0.2%); Precious (/oz): gold $1,279 (+0.4%), silver $17.25 (+0.6%); Steel (/mt): China HRC $429 (+0.5%), SHFE Rebar $318 (+1.1%), MB Scrap Index $316 (+0.0%); Bulks: iron ore (/dmt) $57 (+5.4%), coking coal (/mt) $91 (-1.6%), freight (BCI) 988 (+15.7%); Energy: Brent (/bbl) $49.28 (+0.6%), WTI (/bbl) $48.31 (+1.2%), natural gas (/mmBtu) $2.05 (+0.9%), thermal coal (/t) $51 (+0.4%).

US Department of Commerce finalizes high anti-dumping (AD) and countervailing (CVD) duties on CRC imports from China and Japan. AD duties were unchanged from preliminary levels (announced in March, 2016) at ~266% and ~71%, respectively, however, final CVD for China was slightly higher at ~256% (vs 227% preliminary). AD investigations for other countries (Brazil, India, South Korea, Russia and UK) are expected in July 2016. We believe high duties imposed to be largely a moot point as imports from China/Japan have effectively ceased while imports from other non-target countries have largely filled the void. (SBB, DB)

US steel import permits for May through 5/17 total 1.7m st. If adjusted to a full month, imports would be 3.1m st (-10% YoY), vs. April permits of 2.5m st and March imports of 2.6m st. (US Import Administration)

US private housing starts and permits increase in April to 1.17 million (+6.6% MoM, -1.7% YoY) and 1.12 million (+3.6%, -5.3%), respectively. Separately, China total construction starts for Jan-Jan-Mar, -14% in 2015). (SBB, AME)

US aluminum production down while imports rise in 1Q16. Production fell to ~1 m tons (-7% YoY), while total imports (ex. Canada) surged to ~0.45 m tons (+42%). (AMM)

Canada wildfire rages near oil sand facilities, prolonging shutdowns of 1m bbl/d (~25% of total Canadian output). The wildfire jumped a critical firebreak on 5/16, moving north of Fort McMurray into oil sand camp areas. (Reuters)

Freeport will provide $540m in funds to Noble Corp through an equity distribution agreement that will then be divested and is expected to be complete by June 30th. (Company)

Allegheny Technologies (ATI) launched convertible senior notes offering pursuant to shelf filing from May 2015. Use of proceeds for general corporate purposes, pension contributions and/or repayment of outstanding debt ($1.6bn as of March 30). Separately, ATI added an incremental $100m term loan to its senior secured credit revolver. Proceeds will be used to repay the outstanding term loan payable on Nov 13, 2017. (Company)

Steel Dynamics raises 20-ft rebar prices by $20/st for June delivery orders, following Nucor which had a similar hike on 5/13. (SBB)



Global Strategy

Asset AllocationDate18 May 2016

Reloading On Value: A Second Chance

Binky Chadha

Chief Strategist


Parag Thatte

Strategist


Rajat Dua

Strategist(+1) 212 [email protected]

Value strategies outperform significantly

11.8%

13.3%

14.9%15.5%

17.4%18.0%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

S&

P 5

00

B/P

NTM

EP

S/P

LTM

EP

S/P

OC

F/T

EV

ex-f

in

FC

F/T

EV

ex-f

in

Value strategies average annual returns

The value spread has widened back out

3.5

4.5

5.5

6.5

7.5

3.5

4.5

5.5

6.5

7.5

De

c-0

8

De

c-0

9

De

c-1

0

De

c-1

1

De

c-1

2

De

c-1

3

De

c-1

4

De

c-1

5

Value spreadRecession

Value spread (top quintile minus S&P 500 median, pp)

Double-dip

fears

US downgrade

Euro financial crisis

Start of 20%

US$ rally

China

growth

concerns

Big divergences across sectors

10%

30%

50%

70%

90%

10%

30%

50%

70%

90%

Utiliti

es

Healthcare IT

Sta

ple

s

Mate

rials

Tele

co

m

Co

ns D

isc

Ind

ustr

ials

Ene

rgy

Value spread by sector (percentile)


The value spread between the cheapest stocks and the market widened starting in March 2015 and continued through January 2016 on recurring growth scares, retracing 2/3 of the entire 2013-14 value tightening cycle. As growth fears receded in Q1, the spread has tightened, but remains well wide of cycle lows, with half of a typical value cycle tightening remaining. But this second chance to reload on value is very different. In contrast to broad-based wide value spreads across sectors early in the cycle, the current widening reflects that in Energy, Industrials and Consumer Discretionary, while spreads in Health Care and Tech are not far from their cycle tights

Value is the most basic of investment strategiesarguably the most

universally followed of investment strategies. It has outperformed the market by as much as 1.5-6 percentage points a year over the last 30 years. Amongst various measures of value, book/price, earnings/price, cash flow/enterprise value and their variants, we prefer cash flow measures which outperform the others over time. We also prefer to construct our value index on a sector neutral basis so it is impacted less by secular differences in sector valuations (The Keys To Relative Sector Valuation, Jun 2015). Some popular value indices that are not sector neutral have large shares of Financials and Energy stocks which tend to always have lower multiples.

The value cycle and the business cycleThe value spread, the cash flow yield differential between the cheapest stocks (first quintile) and the market, provides a measure of how cheap value stocks are at any point in time. It indicates the potential returns to a value strategy, with the wider the spread the larger the potential returns, given the right catalysts. Historically the value spread for the S&P 500 has fluctuated in a band from 7½% down to 4½%. Value is tied to the business cycle, with the value spread widest around recessions, tightening as economic recovery ensues and confidence in it builds. Key characteristics of value stocks are that they have slightly lower earnings growth but significantly lower margins and consequently greater cyclicality of earnings and payouts, i.e., they vary more over the course of the business cycle. Amongst various macro cyclical indicators, in our reading the value spread is most closely correlated with manufacturing PMIs.

This value cycle was lateThis value cycle was late in really getting going, with tightening of the value spread interrupted repeatedly by a number of shocks, most notably double-diprecession fears in 2010; the US debt downgrade in 2011; and the European financial crisis in 2012. But absent large new negative shocks, the value spread began to tighten in earnest from the top of its historical band in Oct 2012, compressing through 2013 and 2014 and falling to the bottom of the band, even a little below by early 2015.

Reloading on value: The value spread has retraced to the middle of its bandThe value spread began to widen in March 2015 with a lag to the dollar's record appreciation beginning in mid 2014 and the accompanying collapse in



Asia Synthetic Equity & Index Strategy

DB SYNDEX: Index Change Monitor

Date19 May 2016

One Change Effective TodayAuthors

Shan Lan

Strategist(+852) 22036716

[email protected]

Ryan Talbot

Strategist


Team Contacts

Ari Rajendra

Strategist(+44) 20 754-52282

[email protected]

Ravi Yadav

Strategist


One Change Effective TodayFTSE will decrease the number of shares for Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) in the FTSE AW index. This change will become effective today after market close.

Please refer to Figure 1 below for the estimated impact of all announced upcoming changes in the major Asia-Pacific indices.

Figure 1: Upcoming Corporate Events Announced by the AP Index Providers

IndexChange Details

Effective Date (Close)

Ticker Company NameWeight Change

Demand (USDm)

Demand (mShs)

Days

FTSE

FTSE All World NOS Update 5/19/2016 005930 KS Samsung Electronics -0.00530% -20.2 -0.02 -0.10

FTSE All World Deletion 5/23/2016 BIGC TB Big C Supercenter -0.00614% -61.4 -9.7 -165.01

FTSE ChinaNo ChangesS&P/ASXNo ChangesHang SengNo ChangesMSCI

MSCI EM Acquisition 5/31/2016 493 HK Gome Elec Appliances 0.00161% 3.1 26.4 0.20

MSCI EM Block Sale 5/31/2016 NTPC IN NTPC 0.02666% 54.6 28.8 6.64

MSCI DM Block sale 5/31/2016 9024 JP Seibu Holdings 0.00346% 41.5 1.9 1.24

Source: Deutsche Bank, FTSE, S&P, MSCI, Hang Seng Indexes, Bloomberg Finance LP



United States Economics Date18 May 2016

US Daily Economic NotesWhat will the data and Dudley say today?

Joseph LaVorgna Brett Ryan

Chief US Economist Economist

(+1) 212 250-7329 (+1) 212 250-6294

[email protected] [email protected]

Aditya Bhave

Economist(+1) 212 250-0584

[email protected] Release Forecast Previous Consensus8:30 am Initial jobless claims (05/14): 275k 294k 275k8:30 am Philadelphia Fed index (May): -1.0 -1.6 +3.010:00 am Leading indicators (Apr): +0.5% +0.2% +0.4%Source: Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LPCommentary for Thursday:significance as they correspond to the survey period for May nonfarm payrolls. Over the last two weeks, claims have increased 37k, the largest two-week gain since the last two weeks of April 2014. On the surface, this development is worrying. Claims are a very good leading indicator of the labor market and the broader economy. HHowever, we expect jobless claims to retrace the majority of the aforementioned increase because most of the recent run up has been attributable to just a few specific states namely, Michigan, New York and Ohio.

Recall that while claims increased by 20k during the week of May 7, in the details of the report, we found that the entire gain was attributable to the state of New York. Initial jobless claims in New York were up 23k last week on a seasonally-adjusted basis. The historical data suggest that the jump in claims in New York could be driven by a seasonal issue: Similar distortions occurred at roughly the same time of the year in 2014 (April 26, +21k) and 2011 (April 30, +21k). Importantly, in both of the above cases, claims reverted to trend the very next week. Remember, also, that this latest jump in claims comes on the heels of a 17k spike during the week ending April 30. This increase was primarily concentrated in Michigan (+6.7k) and Ohio (+4.2k), which had theirlargest one-week increases in claims since April 2011 (+7.1k) and November 2012 (+4.5k), respectively, likely due to temporary production disruptions at General Motors. Hence, tthe fact that the increase in claims over the past couple of weeks has not been broad based means that it is probably too soon to conclude that the pace of hiring is significantly deteriorating. That said, if claims were to remain elevated over the next several weeks, we would become more concerned about the underlying health of the labor market.

Fed speakers may be just as important as the data releases, especially San Francisco Fed President

-

the Brexit vote. Vice Chair Fischer will be delivering remarks at a New YorkFed-Columbia University event honoring Michael Woodford. The event is closed to the media so it is unlikely that Fischer will use the forum to discuss monetary policy or the economic outlook. However, NNew York Fed PresidentDudley (voter), whose views are closelyremarks on macroeconomic trends at a press briefing. Recall that a little over a

briefly commented on the May employment report. The strong April retail sales data might have added to his confidence in that assessment. However, as we learned on Monday, the New York Fed Empire report was very weak, plunging by over 18 points to -9.0 -minted GDP Nowcast points to just 1.2% growth even after accounting for the April retail sales data. SSince twthe strength of the anticipated Q2 rebound, his comments on recent macroeconomic trends may be more balanced than those of some of his non-voting colleagues. This could especially be the case if the April Philadelphia Fed survey were to corroborate the weakness in the Empire series.

Policy Speeches9:15 am: Fed Vice Chair Fischer speaks in New York, NY10:30 am: New York Fed President Dudley (voter) speaks on macroeconomic trends in New York, NY

2016 Economic/Financial ProjectionsReal GDP growth: +1.3% Q4/Q4 +1.4% Annual averageCore CPI: +1.8% Q4/Q4Unemployment: 4.8%Fed target rate: 0.625% year end

Treasury ScheduleSize Prev

11:00 am 2Y FRN (ann) $13B $19B11:00 am 2Y Note (ann) $26B $26B11:00 am 5Y Note (ann) $34B $34B11:00 am 7Y Note (ann) $28B $28B1:00 pm 10Y TIPS (auc) $11B $11B



19 May 2016


Page 16 Deutsche Bank AG/London

Economic Calendar

Country GMT Release DB Expected Actual Consensus Previous

Tuesday, 17 May

HU 06:30 Current account balance(monthly) (Mar), EUR, m EUR596.1m

CZ 07:00 GDP(prelim) (Q1), sa/wda -2.30% -4.00%

US 12:30 Building Permits (Apr), k 1,100.0k 1,130.0k 1,086.0k

US 12:30 Housing Starts (Apr), k 1,100.0k 1,127.0k 1,089.0k

US 12:30 CPI (Apr), sa 0.20% 0.3% (1.1%) 0.1% (0.9%)

US 12:30 Core CPI (Apr), sa 0.10% 0.2% (2.1%) 0.1% (2.2%)

US 13:15 Capacity Utilization (Apr) 74.9%rate 75.0%rate 74.8%rate

US 13:15 IP (Apr) 0.10% 0.30% -0.6% (-2.0%)

CL 21:00 Nominal overnight rate target (May) 3.50%rate 3.50%rate

Events and meetings:

US: Treasury Auction 4 Wk - 00:00 GMT.

US: Fe's Williams and Lockhart to discuss Economy at Politico Event - 16:00 GMT.

US: Fed's Kaplan to speak at Petroleum Club of Midland - 17:15 GMT

Wednesday, 18 May

IL 06:00 12M fwd avg CPI forecasts (May) -0.80%

ZA 08:00 CPI (Apr) 0.9% (6.3%) 0.8% (6.3%)

BR 08:00 FIPE CPI weekly (May) 0.40% 0.38%

RU 11:00* Industrial production (Apr)* (-0.5%)

ZA 11:00 Retail sales (Mar) -4.10%

CL 11:30 Current Account (Q1), USD, m -USD760.0m -USD2,080.0m

CL 11:30 GDP (Q1) -1.20% -1.30%

PL 12:00 Avg. gross wages (Apr), nsa -3.30%


US: U.S. Fed Releases Minutes from April 26-27 FOMC Meeting - 18:00 GMT.

Thursday, 19 May

EG 10:00* Merchandise trade balance (Mar), USD, m -USD3,018.0m

ZA 11:00 SARB rate decision (Jun) 7.25%rate 7.00%rate

TR 12:00 CBT FX reserves (May), USD, bn USD99.5bn

PL 12:00 Industrial production (Apr), nsa -0.50%

PL 12:00 PPI (Apr) (-1.7%)

PL 12:00 Retail sales (Apr) -0.80%

US 12:30 Continuing Claims (May), k 2,161.0k

US 12:30 Initial Jobless Claims (May), k 275.0k 294.0k

US 12:30 Philly Fed (May), Index -1 3.5 -1.6

RU 13:00 CBR FX reserves (May), USD, bn USD391.9bn

CO 19:00 Trade Balance (Mar), USD, m -USD1,130.0m -USD1,001.9m


US: Treasury Announcement 13 Wk - 00:00 GMT.



US: Treasury Announcement 2 Yr - 00:00 GMT.




US: TIPS Auction 10 Yr - 00:00 GMT.

US: Fed's Dudley to speak on Macroeconomic Trends in New York - 14:30 GMT.

Friday, 20 May

HU 07:00 Avg. gross wages (Mar), nsa -5.90%

RU 08:00 Money supply (May), RUB, tr, chg RUB8.5tr

RU 11:00* PPI (Apr)* -0.80%

AR 12:00* Budget Balance (Apr), ARS, m -ARS31,720.0m Source: Deutsche Bank

19 May 2016


Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 17

Indices

Region/Country Index Price local Vol ($m) Price Performance in %($ Terms) Forecasts

18-May-16 1D 1 W 1 M Ytd 3 Y 5 Y 10 Y

EM MSCI EMF 44,068.97 na -0.5 -0.7 -4.3 -0.9 -6.4 -6.1 27.9

EMEA MSCI EMEA 468.41 na 0.1 -0.1 -3.1 4.4 2.4 8.5 19.6

LatAm MSCI LatAm 65,799.88 na -0.7 -2.5 -2.5 11.0 -8.5 -8.4 -98.6

Asia MSCI Asia 636.01 na -0.6 -0.5 -4.9 -4.0 -6.6 -7.7 36.7

CEEMA

Czech Republic PX 873.38 16 -0.4 -1.1 -4.3 -5.7 -25.2 -49.9 -44.4

Greece ASE 628.29 82 -0.5 -0.3 8.5 2.9 -52.3 -62.7 -86.0

Hungary BSE 26,026.21 45 -1.7 -4.5 -5.8 12.9 12.1 -24.2 -15.5

Israel TA-25 1,408.59 175 -0.1 -3.0 -7.2 -6.7 10.6 0.0 83.0

Poland WIG 46,609.83 168 -1.2 0.5 -5.7 1.0 -15.7 -32.3 -13.8

Russia RTS$ 926.82 436 -0.5 0.0 3.0 22.4 -34.2 -49.9 -37.8

Turkey ISE 100 77,243.88 1361 -0.3 -2.7 -14.4 5.8 -47.9 -35.8 -1.6

Bahrain BHSEASI 1,105.56 1 -0.2 0.1 -1.9 -9.1 -3.7 -19.6 NA

Egypt CASE 7,637.04 97 1.1 1.8 -0.3 -3.9 10.9 -1.2 -18.3

Jordan ASEGI 2,108.08 11 -0.1 0.2 -0.9 -1.6 4.5 -4.3 -44.6

Kuwait KWSEIDX 5,363.10 37 -0.1 -0.3 1.4 -3.9 -35.6 -24.6 -45.3

Oman MSM30 5,952.46 13 -0.1 0.1 5.2 10.1 -6.7 -1.3 25.6

Qatar DSM20 10,009.95 49 0.0 1.2 -2.2 -4.0 12.3 16.2 25.3

Saudi Arabia TASI 6,737.40 1193 0.0 1.3 4.8 -2.4 -5.7 0.8 -39.0

UAE, Abu Dhabi ADSMI 4,311.27 22 -0.3 -1.7 -5.4 0.1 22.7 62.1 NA

UAE, Dubai DFMGI 3,285.06 70 -0.5 -1.3 -6.8 4.3 43.1 106.6 -32.1

South Africa JSE All Share 52,797.23 1853 -0.9 -3.4 -8.9 2.3 -24.0 -27.2 6.6

ASIA

China HSCCI 3,505.52 511 -1.1 -0.9 -9.3 -13.6 -20.5 -16.8 55.9

China A-Shares SHASHR 2,938.32 22225 -1.5 -1.6 -8.3 -21.2 15.5 -2.8 112.0

India BSE 30 25,704.61 67 -0.4 -0.2 -1.1 -2.8 3.8 -4.4 53.1

Indonesia JSE CI 4,734.36 324 -0.7 -3.1 -3.4 6.6 -19.5 -2.9 195.3

Korea KOSPI 1,956.73 5529 -1.3 -2.5 -5.3 -0.9 -7.0 -15.7 14.8

Malaysia KLCI 1,635.72 260 -0.6 -0.9 -7.6 2.5 -31.0 -20.6 53.6

Pakistan KSE 24,712.46 97 0.3 0.1 7.0 7.9 60.7 144.3 97.7

Philippines MSE CI 7,534.30 150 -0.5 1.4 2.9 8.8 -8.7 61.9 256.5

Taiwan TWSE 8,159.68 1750 -0.1 -0.2 -6.8 -1.7 -10.7 -19.6 12.9

Thailand SET 1,400.50 1063 -0.8 0.3 -1.7 10.0 -27.9 10.5 100.4

LATAM

Argentina MERVAL 12,829.93 11 -1.4 -4.7 -2.8 0.6 28.7 9.5 67.7

Brazil BOVESPA 50,561.70 1622 -2.7 -7.2 -3.1 29.5 -47.7 -63.6 NA

Chile IPSA 3,966.45 85 -0.4 -2.3 -3.9 10.6 -35.1 -44.6 39.2

Colombia IGBC 9,866.82 na -1.7 -3.2 -3.3 21.1 -55.0 -58.3 -6.2

Mexico IPC 45,551.20 358 -1.0 -2.1 -3.9 -0.5 -26.7 -17.8 37.4

Peru IBVL 13,565.86 3 -1.7 0.1 2.7 41.2 -34.9 -49.2 84.2

Venezuela BVC 15,014.40 61 4.1 -2.3 -6.8 -35.2 1139.2 8162.4 10373.9 Source: Bloomberg Finance LP

19 May 2016



Currencies Country Currency Last Price Price Performance Forecasts

18-May-16 1D 1 W 1 M Ytd 3 Y 5 Y 3M 6M 12M

EMEA

Czech Republic CZK 24.0 0.5 1.1 0.9 -4.1 18.0 38.4 24.4 25.1 25.8

Hungary HUF 280.4 0.8 1.4 2.9 -3.5 23.5 47.5 282.9 293.5 304.8

Israel ILS 3.8 0.6 2.0 2.1 -1.4 4.7 10.1 3.8 3.9 3.9

Poland PLN 3.9 1.1 0.9 3.2 -0.7 19.9 40.5 3.9 4.0 4.0

Russia RUB 65.3 0.9 0.2 -0.4 -10.6 107.8 132.1 64.6 65.0 66.0

Turkey TRY 3.0 0.3 0.7 5.1 2.0 61.4 86.8 2.9 2.9 3.0

South Africa ZAR 15.7 1.2 4.8 10.3 1.8 67.4 127.5 15.6 16.1 16.5

ASIA

China CNY 6.5 0.2 0.4 0.9 0.6 6.4 0.6 6.7 6.9 7.0

India INR 66.9 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.8 21.9 48.2 67.7 67.5 68.0

Indonesia IDR 13,357.5 0.5 0.4 1.6 -3.2 36.6 56.4 13,400.0 13,550.0 13,500.0

Korea KRW 1,182.6 0.8 1.7 4.1 0.9 5.9 9.2 1,180.0 1,220.0 1,250.0

Malaysia MYR 4.0 0.6 0.6 4.0 -5.9 33.7 34.1 4.1 4.2 4.2

Pakistan PKR 104.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 6.4 21.3 na na na

Philippines PHP 46.7 0.5 0.0 1.2 -0.9 13.3 8.2 47.6 47.2 48.0

Taiwan TWD 32.7 0.2 0.5 1.4 -0.6 8.8 13.7 33.0 33.5 34.0

Thailand THB 35.6 0.4 0.8 1.9 -1.3 19.3 17.5 35.4 35.9 36.0

LATAM

Argentina ARS 14.1 -0.1 -0.4 0.0 8.9 170.1 245.5 14.9 16.0 16.6

Brazil BRL 3.5 1.1 1.3 -0.4 -10.8 73.5 118.1 3.5 3.6 3.7

Chile CLP 690.9 -0.3 1.2 5.1 -2.5 43.6 47.1 690.9 680.4 685.2

Mexico MXN 18.4 0.3 2.7 6.6 7.1 49.2 57.6 17.4 17.2 17.1

Colombia COP 3,030.9 0.5 3.4 4.0 -4.5 64.5 66.5 3,201.4 3,227.4 3,253.4

Peru PEN 3.3 0.2 -0.1 2.1 -2.6 25.6 20.4 3.5 3.5 3.6

Other Nations

Euro EUR 0.9 0.5 1.1 0.9 -3.7 13.7 25.3 0.9 0.9 1.0

UK GBP 0.7 -1.0 -0.8 -1.5 0.9 3.8 10.8 0.7 0.8 0.8

Switzerland CHF 1.0 0.6 1.5 2.2 -2.0 0.9 11.8 na na 1.4

Japan JPY 109.6 0.6 0.8 0.3 -8.9 6.1 34.2 103.0 101.0 105.0

Hong Kong HKD 7.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.1 7.8 7.8 7.8 Source: Bloomberg Financial LP

19 May 2016



Commodities

Price local Performance (% )

Forecasts

18-May-16 1D 1 W 1 M Ytd 3 Y 5 Y 10 Y 2016E 2017E 2018E

BASE METAL

Aluminium ($/mt) 1,551.5 0.4 0.4 -0.3 3.0 -15.7 -38.0 -46.5 1538 1595 1700

Copper ($/mt) 4,612.5 -1.0 0.0 -4.1 -2.0 -35.9 -47.6 -43.2 4619 4725 5223

Nickel ($/mt) 8,592.8 -1.9 0.0 -3.2 -2.1 -42.1 -64.4 -59.4 9063 10250 11808

Iron Ore($/mt) 53.9 0.0 -2.2 -7.7 24.2 -58.2 na na 44 46 49

Zinc ($/mt) 1,878.5 0.1 -1.6 1.3 17.4 4.8 -11.3 -48.8 1734 1813 1956

Tin ($/mt) 16,825.0 -0.9 -3.0 -2.5 15.2 -18.3 -40.9 84.9 16250 16000 16518

OIL

WTI (Oil) 48.2 -0.2 3.2 19.4 30.1 -48.9 -50.3 -29.8 41 52 65

PRECIOUS METAL

Gold ($/Oz.) 1,258.6 -1.6 -0.4 2.0 18.6 -9.7 -15.4 83.2 1195 1231 1275

Palladium Spot $/Oz 570.7 -2.6 -4.1 0.4 1.4 -21.6 -21.0 53.6 581 658 750

Platinum Spot $/Oz 1,028.3 -2.5 -1.9 4.4 15.1 -31.0 -41.8 -21.5 939 890 1030

Silver Spot $/Oz 16.9 -2.0 -0.4 4.1 22.0 -25.2 -50.2 28.2 15.2 15.8 16.5 Source: Bloomberg Financial LP

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Macro Data

GDP Growth (YoY %)

GDP Nominal ($bn)

GDP per Capita ($)

CPI (YoY %)

CA Balance (% GDP)

Fiscal Balance (% GDP)

Total Govt Debt (% GDP)

Total Ext Debt (% GDP)

Country 2016E 2017E 2016E 2016E 2016E 2017E 2016E 2017E 2016E 2017E 2016E 2017E 2016E 2017E

CEEMEA

Czech Republic 2.6 3.2 171 16,197 1.0 1.7 1.2 0.8 -1.4 -1.2 40.4 39.8 70.4 67.7

Egypt 3.6 4.0 313 3,521 10.5 9.5 -4.0 -3.2 -11.0 -9.6 94.6 93.5 16.6 18.4

Hungary 2.4 3.1 117 11,918 0.4 1.4 4.2 3.5 -1.9 -2.5 74.0 72.0 103.6 104.1

Israel 2.8 3.5 300 35,127 -0.1 0.7 4.2 4.4 -2.8 -2.7 64.3 63.9 28.7 27.1

Kazakhstan 2.0 3.6 130 7,238 14.2 6.5 -3.7 -1.9 -0.2 0.1 NA NA NA NA

Poland 3.6 3.5 450 11,844 -0.6 1.2 -0.8 -0.7 -2.9 -3.0 49.9 51.1 73.0 73.7

Russia -0.7 0.5 1,238 8,463 9.2 7.1 5.0 5.0 -2.1 -1.6 13.4 12.0 42.6 42.0

Saudi Arabia 1.4 1.6 664 20,726 4.0 4.0 -12.2 -6.8 -14.0 -9.5 13.1 17.5 11.0 11.0

South Africa 0.1 1.0 268 4,827 7.0 6.7 -3.0 -3.6 -3.5 -3.4 52.4 51.9 49.3 46.9

Turkey 4.0 3.8 750 9,471 7.4 7.5 -4.7 -5.1 -1.8 -1.2 33.2 31.9 53.9 54.2

United Arab Emirates 3.0 2.7 385 39,021 2.9 3.3 2.5 3.5 -2.1 0.3 18.3 17.4 47.1 41.3

ASIA

China 6.7 6.7 10,859 7,857 1.8 1.8 2.7 2.5 -4.0 -4.0 41.1 41.6 16.0 16.5

India 7.5 7.8 2,137 1,659 4.9 4.9 -1.4 -1.6 -3.8 -3.7 67.0 64.8 26.5 27.0

Indonesia 4.8 5.0 932 3,569 3.8 4.9 -2.0 -1.9 -2.7 -2.7 28.0 29.0 36.4 34.6

Korea 2.4 2.6 1,313 25,843 1.1 1.7 7.5 6.1 -0.5 -0.5 40.7 41.4 29.4 29.2

Malaysia 4.2 5.0 299 9,521 2.2 2.8 2.3 2.4 -3.1 -2.9 71.0 70.0 65.5 65.9

Philippines 6.0 5.8 300 2,908 2.2 3.1 1.9 1.9 -1.8 -1.8 48.0 46.6 26.5 24.9

Taiwan 1.3 2.5 513 21,783 1.2 1.1 15.4 14.4 -2.0 -2.0 39.3 41.3 36.8 37.9

Thailand 2.5 2.5 371 5,636 0.3 1.7 5.3 3.8 -2.1 -2.2 48.0 47.5 40.6 41.6

LATAM

Argentina -0.6 3.0 469 10,800 36.5 18.7 -1.8 -2.8 -6.4 -5.9 48.4 46.8 33.6 32.8

Brazil -4.0 1.0 1,661 8,065 8.6 6.1 -0.9 -1.0 -8.4 -8.1 72.9 77.2 32.2 31.2

Chile 1.5 3.0 245 13,500 3.9 3.5 -2.2 -1.1 -1.3 -1.9 18.8 20.6 28.2 28.6

Colombia 2.4 3.1 282 5,609 7.7 4.0 -5.7 -4.9 -4.0 -3.5 42.8 43.8 41.5 39.9

Mexico 2.3 2.8 1,470 11,669 3.1 3.4 -2.7 -2.9 -3.4 -3.0 50.0 52.0 24.1 25.8

Peru 3.6 4.2 190 6,014 4.0 3.4 -3.7 -2.9 -2.6 -2.4 24.0 24.3 36.5 34.9

Venezuela -7.6 -3.2 288 8,996 175.0 250.0 -0.9 0.2 -15.8 -15.0 47.9 49.2 28.0 30.0

CEEMEA 1.8 2.4 4,786 168,353 6.8 6.0 -1.5 -0.7 -4.6 -3.5 33.1 32.9 42.3 41.6

ASIA 6.0 6.2 16,723 78,776 2.6 2.8 2.2 1.9 -3.4 -3.4 44.4 44.6 21.8 22.1

LATAM -0.9 1.9 4,605 64,653 18.9 18.9 -2.1 -2.1 -6.2 -5.8 54.8 57.1 30.0 30.1

EM 4.2 4.9 26,115 311,782 5.7 5.6 0.8 0.8 -4.1 -3.7 44.2 44.6 27.0 27.1

US 1.4 2.1 NA NA 1.3 1.9 -2.7 -3.0 -2.9 -2.9 NA NA NA NA

Europe 1.5 1.5 NA NA 0.1 1.3 2.6 2.2 -2.0 -1.7 NA NA NA NA

Japan -0.4 0.5 NA NA 0.1 1.8 4.6 4.5 -4.2 -3.5 NA NA NA NA Source: Deutsche Bank, IMF

19 May 2016



Interest Rates

Yield Change in bps

(%) 1 M 1 Y

Saudi Arabia SAR_SW05 4.46 32 169

Israel ILS_SW05 1.92 -18 -16

Turkey TRY_SW05 14.0 37 402

Russia RUB_SW05/ICAP 10.82 -13 -438

Hungary HUF_SW05/6MF 1.88 -25 -33

Czech Republic CZK_SW05/6MF/ICAP 0.54 0 11

Poland PLN_SW05/6MF/ICAP 1.89 -29 19

South Africa - ZAR_SW05 8.85 -12 209

Argentina - ARG ARS BONAR V 4.43 487 443

Brazil - BRL PRE 5Y 14.02 -88 144

Chile - CLP SWAP 5Y 4.16 2 8

Colombia - COP_USD_SWAP 5Y 6.47 -25 133

Mexico - MXN TIIE 5Y 5.31 -12 16

Peru - PEN Nominal/PERUGB AUG 20 5.88 -40 107


Country Risk 10Yr Credit Default Swap(Bps) (CEEMEA)


Country Risk 10Yr Credit Default Swap(Bps)


19 May 2016



P/BV valuation – By Countries

GEM Country Current P/BV Current P/BV versus country's 10-year

historical average P/BV

Current P/BV relative to EM P/BV , versus 10-

year historical average

EM 1.32 -28.8% 0.0%

DM 2.06 2.3% 39.4%

US 2.80 14.0% 53.8%

Brazil 1.35 -25.5% 6.0%

Chile 1.55 -27.6% -0.6%

China 1.22 -42.8% -17.4%

Colombia 1.12 -36.5% -13.2%

Czech Republic 1.24 -38.1% -12.0%

Egypt 2.09 -12.8% 26.7%

Greece 0.46 -69.4% -55.1%

Hungary 1.42 -1.6% 43.4%

India 3.13 -6.8% 31.1%

Indonesia 2.77 -26.3% 1.9%

Korea 0.93 -29.8% -1.7%

Malaysia 1.59 -23.9% 3.5%

Mexico 2.48 -14.3% 16.8%

Peru 2.06 -42.1% -16.8%

Philippines 2.89 5.8% 41.0%

Poland 1.08 -32.4% -4.2%

Qatar 1.63 -25.9% 3.8%

Russia 0.69 -42.7% -14.8%

South Africa 2.11 -18.9% 11.0%

Taiwan 1.48 -20.3% 8.9%

Thailand 1.90 -8.1% 23.9%

Turkey 1.16 -31.2% -5.1%

UAE 1.55 7.8% 51.0%


P/BV valuation – By Em Sector

GEM Sector Current P/BV Current P/BV versus

sector's 10-year historical

average P/BV

Current P/BV relative to EM

P/BV , versus 10-year

historical average

EM 1.32 -28.8% 0.0%

Consumer Discretionary 1.73 -20.2% 8.9%

Consumer Staples 3.70 5.2% 40.6%

Energy 0.73 -48.2% -24.1%

Financials 1.01 -41.9% -17.5%

Health Care 3.97 11.2% 47.8%

Industrial 1.34 -25.5% 5.3%

Information Technology 1.84 -14.9% 16.6%

Materials 1.09 -38.3% -11.5%

Telco 1.89 -25.1% 4.2%

Utilities 1.04 -12.1% 19.8%


19 May 2016



CEEMEA valuation

EV/EBITDA for Banks has been replaced by ROE The Daily and YTD % Price changes refer to the change in US dollar value of the stock Source: Deutsche Bank, Companies

05/18/16 Daily YTD Price P/BV (x) Div Yld % (US$ m)Company Ticker Rating Price Change % Change % Target 2016E 2017E 2016E 2017E 2016E 2016E Mkt Cap

BanksAkbank AKBNK.IS Hold 7.71 1.0 13.1 7.80 12.7 12.4 8.8 8.3 1.1 2.3 10378Al Rajhi Bank 1120.SE Buy 59.75 0.0 15.0 56.10 20.6 15.5 10.6 12.5 2.0 2.5 25888Albaraka Turk ALBRK.IS Hold 1.48 -0.3 10.2 1.61 13.1 12.4 4.5 4.2 0.6 0.8 448Alinma Bank 1150.SE Sell 13.90 0.0 -5.7 6.70 6.6 5.3 16.8 20.2 1.1 2.5 5559Alior Bank ALRR.WA Buy 69.24 -0.4 4.5 94.00 9.6 11.9 13.7 10.3 1.3 0.0 1291Arab National Bank 1080.SE Hold 19.60 -0.3 -17.0 19.40 12.4 8.1 6.9 9.8 0.8 5.6 5226Bank Handlowy BHW.WA Buy 75.70 1.6 5.7 92.00 10.4 11.0 14.8 13.0 1.4 7.3 2536Bank Millennium MILP.WA Sell 4.76 0.6 -14.1 5.70 2.1 9.6 11.8 8.7 0.9 0.6 1480Bank Pekao PEO.WA Buy 154 -1.4 7.4 166.00 8.7 11.1 19.3 15.5 1.7 5.0 10336Bank Saint-Petersburg BSPB.MM Sell 52.60 -1.5 36.6 32.00 4.2 5.2 9.6 7.4 0.4 0.0 354Bank Zachodni WBK BZW.WA Buy 272 0.2 0.7 350.00 8.5 11.4 13.6 11.5 1.4 3.1 6908Banque Saudi Fransi 1050.SE Sell 24.95 -0.2 -10.8 16.50 10.3 7.4 10.2 13.3 1.0 4.2 8018Barclays Africa Group BGAJ.J Buy 138 0.3 -5.0 175.00 15.9 16.0 7.9 7.3 1.2 7.3 7397Burgan Bank BURG.KW Hold 340 1.5 -11.2 360.00 11.9 13.3 10.3 8.5 0.0 5.3 2280Capitec Bank CPIJ.J Sell 555 -0.6 2.1 300.00 25.2 25.0 20.6 17.7 4.8 2.0 4068CIB COMI.CA Hold 44.70 0.5 3.4 41.00 33.2 29.4 9.1 8.3 2.3 2.5 5810Commercial Bank of Qatar COMB.QA Hold 37.50 0.0 -18.3 48.00 11.5 12.9 7.7 7.0 0.8 8.5 3365Doha Bank DOBK.QA Buy 36.35 -0.1 -18.3 50.00 15.6 16.3 7.8 6.9 1.0 6.3 2580Garanti Bank GARAN.IS Buy 7.45 -0.5 2.9 9.10 13.9 14.7 7.0 5.9 0.9 2.9 10530Halkbank HALKB.IS Hold 9.10 -0.9 -13.9 13.10 13.6 13.6 4.1 3.6 0.5 0.0 3828ING Bank Slaski INGP.WA Hold 120 -1.1 2.8 125.00 9.6 10.5 15.9 12.9 1.4 3.4 4002Isbank ISCTR.IS Buy 4.38 0.9 -6.4 6.00 10.9 11.7 5.4 4.6 0.6 3.7 6633Komercni Banka BKOM.PR Buy 946 -0.4 5.5 1,180.00 12.0 11.8 14.5 14.5 1.7 6.3 7507Kuwait Finance House KFIN.KW Sell 480 0.0 1.8 460.00 11.0 12.8 12.8 10.3 0.0 4.3 8202Masraf Al Rayan MARK.QA Sell 34.20 0.3 -9.0 29.00 16.2 15.6 13.1 12.9 2.0 5.4 7046mBank MBK.WA Sell 311 -2.9 -0.6 290.00 4.6 8.7 12.5 11.3 1.0 1.1 3365National Bank of Kuwait NBKK.KW Buy 650 -1.5 -10.6 830.00 12.1 13.7 10.4 8.6 0.0 4.6 11460NCB 1180.SE Sell 42.40 -0.2 -16.8 28.70 17.5 9.1 8.9 15.6 1.5 3.7 22604OTP Bank OTPB.BU Hold 6,800 -1.5 17.0 6,600.00 11.1 12.9 12.2 9.7 1.3 0.0 6462PKO Bank Polski PKO.WA Hold 24.03 -1.9 -11.8 27.00 6.1 9.2 11.1 10.2 1.0 2.2 7701Qatar Islamic Bank QISB.QA Hold 96.40 -0.8 -9.6 96.00 16.6 16.8 10.6 9.5 1.6 4.4 6257Qatar National Bank QNBK.QA Buy 139 0.0 -5.0 162.50 18.5 17.6 9.7 9.1 1.6 5.3 31946Riyad Bank 1010.SE Sell 11.15 0.0 -10.0 6.10 6.6 4.2 13.5 20.6 0.9 6.3 8919Samba Financial Group 1090.SE Sell 21.95 -0.2 -5.9 14.80 9.8 6.7 10.8 15.2 1.0 3.9 11705Saudi British Bank 1060.SE Sell 23.20 -0.4 -6.2 17.00 12.5 8.2 9.1 12.7 1.1 3.2 9279Saudi Hollandi Bank 1040.SE Sell 12.65 -1.2 -12.2 7.20 9.7 4.3 11.8 24.9 1.1 2.1 3855Sberbank SBER.MM Buy 123 -0.6 37.5 124.00 15.0 15.3 7.0 6.0 1.0 0.0 40718Standard Bank SBKJ.J Buy 117 0.8 1.9 150.00 15.5 15.9 7.8 7.0 1.1 6.6 12003TCS TCSq.L Sell 4.25 2.4 39.3 2.45 18.6 16.9 10.9 10.0 1.9 0.0 776TSKB TSKB.IS Buy 1.52 -0.9 -1.7 1.85 20.2 20.2 5.1 4.4 1.0 2.7 895Vakifbank VAKBN.IS Hold 4.35 -1.6 11.6 4.70 12.4 12.1 5.0 4.6 0.6 1.1 3660VTB VTBRq.L Sell 2.06 -0.6 -2.2 0.80 0.5 2.3 111.7 25.7 0.6 0.0 13362Yapi Kredi Bank YKBNK.IS Hold 3.94 -0.3 17.7 3.80 9.6 8.1 7.4 8.0 0.7 1.1 5764

Consumer Discretionary

Al Tayyar 1810.SE Hold 41.60 -0.2 -42.4 63.00 5.3 4.5 7.2 7.1 1.4 0.0 2218

Alhokair 4240.SE Buy 39.80 2.6 -43.5 91.00 8.3 7.1 9.3 8.2 2.8 2.5 2228

Arcelik ARCLK.IS Hold 19.41 1.1 36.6 20.70 8.9 8.3 13.1 11.8 2.4 2.0 4414

Cnova CNV.OQ Hold 5.00 0.6 107 5.50 na na na na 29.4 0.0 2142

CTC Media Inc CTCM.OQ Hold 2.05 2.0 10.8 2.20 5.4 na 10.9 na 0.8 6.3 319

Cyfrowy Polsat CPS.WA Buy 23.20 0.3 11.5 26.00 7.3 6.9 12.7 10.8 1.3 1.7 3804

Dogus Otomotiv DOAS.IS Hold 11.13 -0.9 -0.7 12.90 9.1 8.1 9.2 8.6 1.8 12.3 824

Ford Otosan FROTO.IS Buy 34.44 -3.0 11.8 40.00 8.6 7.5 13.8 12.1 3.6 4.9 4067

Herfy 6002.SE Buy 75.00 -1.0 -25.5 88.00 12.1 11.3 16.5 15.5 4.3 4.0 924

Imperial IPLJ.J Hold 128 -1.3 6.5 122.00 4.9 4.7 8.8 8.7 1.2 5.0 1610

Jarir Marketing 4190.SE Hold 117 0.0 -25.7 148.00 12.9 12.1 13.3 12.5 6.4 6.2 2802

Lewis Group Ltd LEWJ.J Hold 45.74 -4.6 -17.5 44.00 5.2 5.3 6.2 5.9 0.8 11.3 258

LPP LPPP.WA Hold 5,100 -0.5 -7.9 6,000.00 12.5 11.4 21.8 20.0 4.1 0.6 2396

Mr Price MRPJ.J Buy 169 0.0 -16.3 195.00 11.4 10.1 18.1 16.9 7.2 3.7 2676Naspers NPNJn.J Buy 2,040 -3.0 -4.7 2,375.00 91.9 62.4 43.8 26.2 6.9 0.4 52292Richemont CFRJ.J Buy 98.35 0.2 -12.7 125.00 8.9 8.1 16.9 15.6 2.1 2.9 35206SACO 4008.SE Hold 92.00 -0.5 -7.5 108.00 12.6 10.6 16.2 13.5 4.1 2.2 589Steinhoff SNHJ.J Buy 86.84 -0.4 9.5 104.00 9.1 7.9 16.3 14.4 1.4 2.7 15284Super Group SPGJ.J Buy 39.75 -0.5 3.8 40.00 5.7 5.0 11.6 11.0 1.8 0.8 753The Foschini Group Ltd TFGJ.J Buy 134 -1.8 9.0 162.00 8.5 7.5 13.0 11.4 3.6 4.9 1762Tofas TOASO.IS Hold 21.46 -3.6 11.3 20.70 11.3 9.8 13.3 13.4 3.8 5.0 3611Truworths TRUJ.J Buy 98.25 -0.8 6.8 124.00 9.7 7.8 13.6 11.3 5.1 4.4 2597Woolworths Holdings Ltd WHLJ.J Hold 85.16 -3.3 -15.8 87.00 9.6 8.3 18.6 15.9 5.0 3.9 4838

Consumer StaplesAlmarai 2280.SE Hold 55.75 0.0 -28.7 50.00 15.0 13.8 23.2 21.3 3.3 1.6 11892Anadolu Efes AEFES.IS Hold 19.75 1.7 2.8 19.20 10.5 10.6 25.1 15.3 1.4 1.2 3935AVI AVIJ.J Hold 85.00 -1.2 8.8 100.00 11.3 10.2 18.3 16.4 6.3 4.4 1722BIM BIMAS.IS Hold 60.20 -0.8 15.2 58.70 17.3 14.1 26.5 21.8 9.0 1.8 6150Bizim Toptan BIZIM.IS Hold 16.10 -0.9 23.6 18.40 6.9 5.8 29.6 24.6 3.9 0.6 217British American Tobacco BTIJ.J Buy 955 0.4 8.3 600.00 13.2 12.6 17.1 15.7 0.2 3.8 109695Clicks Group Ltd CLSJ.J Hold 102 -2.5 12.9 101.00 13.1 11.6 23.0 20.2 10.0 2.8 1551Coca Cola Icecek CCOLA.IS Buy 34.82 0.3 -7.8 44.70 10.2 8.7 19.2 15.6 2.2 0.7 2981Eurocash EUR.WA Hold 48.00 1.0 -0.7 55.00 13.0 11.5 23.3 20.7 5.3 2.1 1710Lenta LNTAq.L Hold 6.80 0.4 0.7 8.40 7.0 na 11.7 na 3.7 0.0 3165Magnit MGNT.MM Buy 9,301 -1.5 -6.3 13,517.00 6.4 na 10.2 na 3.1 3.9 13466Magnit GDR MGNTq.L Hold 35.90 -1.3 -10.7 55.60 7.8 na 12.8 na 4.0 3.1 16963Massmart MSMJ.J Hold 118 -1.5 16.6 106.00 7.9 7.2 19.3 16.4 4.0 2.6 1621Migros MGROS.IS Buy 16.56 0.1 -6.7 22.80 7.3 5.8 19.3 13.1 4.4 0.0 992Othaim 4001.SE Buy 97.50 0.5 10.0 120.00 17.2 15.0 16.7 14.6 3.4 1.8 1170Pick'n Pay Stores PIKJ.J Hold 73.25 -1.2 11.6 65.00 14.1 12.0 28.0 27.0 9.2 1.8 2226Pioneer PFGJ.J Buy 163 0.6 1.5 200.00 12.2 9.5 20.8 15.9 4.2 2.4 1909Shoprite SHPJ.J Hold 166 -1.5 14.5 164.00 9.7 8.8 19.4 17.4 4.1 2.6 5625Spar Group Limited SPPJ.J Buy 209 -2.3 12.4 235.00 12.2 10.4 21.2 19.7 5.8 3.5 2297Tiger Bands TBSJ.J Buy 344 -1.2 7.7 395.00 11.6 10.0 17.8 15.2 3.6 3.0 3499Ulker ULKER.IS Buy 21.40 0.8 19.5 22.20 15.2 12.6 23.2 19.1 4.2 1.3 2463X5 Retail Group Ltd PJPq.L Buy 19.85 -0.5 4.7 21.70 6.5 na 14.8 na 2.7 0.0 5389

EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x)

19 May 2016



CEEMEA valuation



Diversified FinancialsAlexander Forbes AFHJ.J Buy 7.12 -0.9 18.9 8.00 na na 11.9 10.8 na 5.5 309Coronation CMLJ.J Sell 66.25 -3.4 24.0 60.00 10.7 10.7 13.9 13.5 9.7 7.2 1472EFG Hermes HRHO.CA Hold 10.53 -3.1 5.3 13.00 na na na na na naFirstRand FSRJ.J Hold 41.57 -0.7 -2.8 47.50 2.5 2.5 10.2 9.6 2.3 5.6 14637JSE JSEJ.J Hold 163 -0.2 25.9 155.00 9.6 9.3 13.7 13.5 4.8 3.9 894Peregrine PGRJ.J Hold 27.17 -1.5 -8.2 31.50 na na 10.3 8.7 na NA 340RMB Holdings Ltd RMHJ.J Buy 51.50 -1.2 -8.3 63.00 2.1 2.1 9.7 8.7 1.9 5.9 4618Sabanci Holding SAHOL.IS Buy 8.88 0.3 5.4 11.20 10.7 na 7.1 na 0.8 1.7 6097Transaction Capital TCPJ.J Buy 11.29 1.7 -9.8 12.75 2.5 2.5 13.8 11.9 2.2 2.4 408

EnergyAldrees 4200.SE Buy 36.50 0.5 -15.2 63.00 7.5 6.3 10.8 9.3 2.1 5.5 389Bashneft BANE.MM Sell 3,070 3.7 74.7 2,600.00 5.1 4.2 7.8 6.1 1.7 3.5 7963Dana Gas DANA.AD Hold 0.52 -1.9 2.0 0.62 17.1 19.7 na na 0.3 0.0 986Gazprom GAZP.MM Sell 152 -1.9 26.4 100.00 4.5 3.9 4.4 3.7 0.3 4.6 53479Gazprom Neft SIBN.MM Buy 156 -1.7 14.3 175.00 4.7 3.6 4.4 3.1 0.6 3.5 11239Gulf Int'l Services GISS.QA Hold 37.75 0.1 -26.7 40.00 9.7 na 15.3 na 1.7 2.6 1927Gulf Marine GMS.L Buy 44.25 1.0 -57.2 150.00 4.2 na 2.9 na 0.4 4.5 226KazMunaiGas E&P KMGq.L Hold 7.15 2.1 -3.9 7.50 0.0 2.3 82.8 19.5 0.6 3.0 2930LUKOIL LKOH.MM Hold 2,707 0.4 30.5 2,800.00 3.7 3.4 6.5 5.5 0.6 7.2 30436MOL MOLB.BU Hold 16,100 -1.1 16.6 15,500.00 4.5 4.5 11.3 12.5 1.1 3.3 5913Novatek NVTKq.L Buy 99.50 1.5 21.1 105.00 12.1 8.7 13.3 9.0 3.6 2.3 30047PGNiG PGN.WA Sell 5.32 -2.8 3.9 4.50 5.8 5.6 16.8 16.4 1.0 3.4 8047PKN Orlen PKN.WA Buy 67.69 -1.7 0.1 80.00 4.7 4.6 7.0 7.6 1.1 2.6 7422ROMGAZ ROSNG.BX Buy 22.10 -1.9 -15.4 28.70 2.9 2.8 7.0 6.6 0.9 12.7 2136Rosneft ROSN.MM Hold 330 1.4 47.2 290.00 6.1 5.4 7.7 6.7 1.2 3.3 53498Sasol SOLJ.J Hold 463 -0.1 9.4 455.00 7.4 6.1 16.7 9.7 1.3 0.3 17957Surgutneftegaz SNGS_p.MM Buy 42.75 -0.1 9.3 57.50 1.8 1.5 8.9 8.5 0.6 3.8 28442Surgutneftegaz SNGS.MM Buy 34.16 1.0 13.7 55.00 0.3 0.0 7.1 6.8 0.4 4.8 22724Tatneft TATN.MM Hold 326 -0.1 15.9 300.00 5.1 4.9 8.2 8.5 1.1 3.0 11045TMK TRMKq.L Buy 2.94 0.0 -8.3 4.00 4.9 4.0 14.7 5.2 1.1 0.0 728Transneft TRNF_p.MM Sell 189,700 -6.9 10.6 150,000.00 5.3 4.7 9.4 8.5 0.9 0.2 20639Tupras TUPRS.IS Buy 64.10 -0.5 -9.5 77.80 6.3 5.9 7.2 7.1 1.8 10.1 5402

Health CareAspen APNJ.J Buy 309 -1.0 -1.0 345.00 15.8 13.4 23.3 19.2 3.4 0.8 8962IDH IDHC.L Hold 5.10 -1.9 3.1 5.94 10.6 8.4 16.9 13.4 3.1 2.5 765Life HC LHCJ.J Hold 37.25 -1.2 5.2 38.00 10.6 9.8 19.5 17.6 7.2 4.4 2454MDMG MDMGq.L Buy 5.90 0.0 12.4 7.20 9.1 na 9.4 na 2.3 1.4 443Mediclinic MEIJ.J Buy 189 0.3 -1.2 230.00 15.8 14.2 22.5 20.2 0.0 1.4 8760Mediclinic International MDCM.L Buy 830 1.0 2.7 1,050.00 15.9 14.3 22.2 19.9 0.0 1.4 8841Netcare NTCJ.J Buy 31.80 -3.0 -7.1 37.00 9.4 8.2 17.2 14.3 3.5 3.1 2717NMC Health NMC.L Buy 1,050 0.8 23.2 1,188.00 15.4 12.3 19.2 15.6 4.5 0.7 2857SPIMACO 2070.SE Buy 38.90 1.0 17.3 50.00 14.4 12.8 13.9 11.9 1.6 2.6 1245

IndustrialsAlafco ALAF.KW Buy 208 1.0 -0.4 323.00 7.6 8.2 7.7 6.1 0.0 2.4 537Arabtec Holding ARTC.DU Hold 1.47 -1.3 17.6 1.11 49.1 15.8 na 34.5 2.1 0.0 1803Astra Industrial 1212.SE Hold 16.60 1.5 -16.1 10.00 15.7 10.7 na na 0.8 0.0 341Barloworld BAWJ.J Buy 68.07 2.5 8.8 95.00 3.9 na 7.0 na 0.7 3.2 919Bidvest BVTJ.J Hold 351 1.3 5.9 358.00 9.2 8.5 16.9 15.3 3.0 3.0 7345DP World DPW.DI Buy 18.58 -0.6 -8.5 22.60 10.5 9.6 17.5 15.2 1.6 1.6 15421Drake & Scull DSI.DU Hold 0.54 -2.2 29.8 0.47 13.3 9.5 14.5 8.8 0.5 0.0 331Enka Insaat ENKAI.IS Hold 4.26 -2.6 -7.4 5.30 6.8 6.5 11.5 11.4 1.0 1.9 5734Global Ports GLPRq.L Hold 3.20 0.2 -1.5 4.10 5.6 4.5 4.9 3.8 2.2 0.0 611Globaltrans GLTRq.L Buy 4.15 5.5 -8.8 5.00 4.6 4.1 14.2 11.7 1.0 10.3 742Industries Qatar IQCD.QA Buy 101 -1.4 -9.1 136.00 53.5 51.6 17.8 14.3 1.8 5.0 16785Koc Holding KCHOL.IS Hold 12.75 -0.3 14.7 13.80 1.3 1.3 10.1 na 1.2 2.4 10362Orascom Construction OC.DI Hold 4.80 0.0 -31.4 14.80 2.6 2.1 3.3 3.2 0.5 0.0 567Sise Cam SISE.IS Hold 3.56 -2.2 9.7 3.01 6.3 5.6 9.5 8.9 0.6 3.6 2276TAV Airports TAVHL.IS Buy 14.85 -2.8 -19.7 20.00 5.3 4.4 7.2 6.4 1.7 6.5 1815Tekfen Holding TKFEN.IS Hold 6.91 -0.6 68.1 6.40 5.9 7.5 8.4 10.8 1.1 2.0 860Trakya Cam TRKCM.IS Hold 2.10 0.2 14.1 2.02 7.3 6.2 19.7 9.8 0.7 0.8 632Turkish Airlines THYAO.IS Buy 6.11 -2.3 -18.7 8.80 7.4 5.5 9.5 3.8 0.6 0.0 2837

Information TechnologyMail.Ru MAILRq.L Buy 19.10 1.1 -15.3 22.50 15.4 12.0 31.8 23.4 1.6 0.0 3984

InsuranceAksigorta AKGRT.IS Hold 2.06 4.3 20.5 2.36 na na 12.8 9.5 na 7.8 212Anadolu Hayat ANHYT.IS Hold 5.27 -0.8 -14.4 5.38 na na 14.9 na na 6.7 727Anadolu Sigorta ANSGR.IS Hold 1.73 0.3 7.0 1.58 na na 10.1 na na 9.9 291PZU PZU.WA Hold 35.43 1.2 4.5 37.00 na na na na na na


19 May 2016



CEEMEA valuation



MaterialsAlrosa ALRS.MM Hold 78.00 1.0 57.7 80.00 6.7 6.3 9.7 9.1 3.4 3.7 8623Amplats AMSJ.J Hold 400 -0.8 114 385.00 9.6 6.1 22.3 12.9 2.4 0.2 6644Anadolu Cam ANACM.IS Hold 2.07 0.7 22.6 1.80 6.5 6.4 10.3 127.0 0.6 0.0 309AngloGold Ashanti ANGJ.J Buy 235 -2.9 119 240.00 5.2 3.6 13.5 8.0 2.1 0.0 6114Antofagasta PLC ANTO.L Hold 421 -1.9 -11.5 470.00 7.6 5.5 54.2 17.8 0.9 0.1 6068ARM ARIJ.J Hold 93.62 -2.2 113 80.00 16.4 12.1 14.3 9.6 0.8 4.3 1292BHP Billiton BILJ.J Hold 193 -2.1 9.9 200.00 30.5 7.7 76.7 35.6 1.2 6.3 65224Erdemir EREGL.IS Sell 4.37 1.8 41.3 3.84 8.0 7.0 13.4 12.4 1.2 6.9 5147Evraz EVRE.L Sell 125 1.0 68.5 60.00 7.0 7.8 15.6 33.1 8.6 0.0 2755Fresnillo FRES.L Sell 1,144 -0.4 59.4 790.00 17.8 13.7 78.2 46.8 5.4 0.4 12322Gold Fields GFIJ.J Hold 66.99 -1.2 57.2 56.00 4.3 3.8 13.7 11.6 1.1 1.5 3297Harmony HARJ.J Hold 54.29 0.4 245 60.00 5.6 2.1 18.1 5.3 0.8 0.0 1498ICL ICL.TA Hold 15.25 -6.7 -0.6 19.00 7.0 6.5 8.4 7.5 1.6 8.4 5047Impala Platinum IMPJ.J Hold 54.24 0.4 115 40.00 14.4 8.6 na 250.2 0.6 0.1 2091KGHM KGH.WA Sell 63.50 -3.6 0.4 60.00 6.1 5.9 86.7 34.3 0.6 1.6 3256Kumba Iron Ore Ltd KIOJ.J Sell 94.09 -0.2 126 65.00 4.8 3.3 12.1 7.6 1.4 0.0 1914Lonmin Plc LONJ.J Sell 44.65 -1.0 142 23.00 13.3 11.9 na 561.2 0.4 0.0 1650Ma'aden 1211.SE Sell 41.50 0.0 25.1 31.00 25.5 19.5 49.3 27.3 1.7 0.0 12929Magnitogorsk Steel MAGNq.L Hold 4.90 0.0 46.9 3.80 4.3 4.7 9.0 11.1 1.1 3.0 4182Mechel MTL.N Hold 1.75 -3.8 7.0 NA 14.7 13.1 na na na 0.0 874Nampak NPKJ.J Hold 21.72 1.2 -13.4 21.00 5.4 4.4 9.3 6.9 1.5 6.5 879NLMK NLMKq.L Hold 13.20 1.1 55.1 12.80 5.6 5.4 11.7 11.4 1.1 4.3 7911Nordgold NORDNq.L Buy 3.10 1.6 14.8 3.90 4.0 2.9 11.6 8.0 1.2 6.8 1166Norilsk Nickel NKELyq.L Hold 14.16 1.9 11.8 12.60 9.1 8.4 11.6 10.2 8.3 6.5 22230Northam NHMJ.J Hold 47.16 0.8 77.0 36.00 28.8 15.5 na na 1.9 0.0 1174Petkim PETKM.IS Hold 4.33 -1.6 39.1 3.34 9.1 8.2 17.0 19.9 2.4 10.9 1457Pfleiderer Grajewo GRJ.WA Buy 30.00 -4.0 13.0 36.00 4.8 4.0 13.1 9.3 1.1 4.4 382PHOSAGRO PHORq.L Hold 15.30 -0.3 19.1 12.60 7.2 6.7 9.9 9.7 4.4 5.0 5921Polymetal POLYP.L Hold 809 0.7 36.5 550.00 9.1 7.5 15.7 15.0 9.0 2.1 5001RBPlat RBPJ.J Hold 43.20 -5.1 60.5 34.00 10.9 20.9 33.9 801.4 0.7 0.0 526SABIC 2010.SE Hold 84.25 0.0 9.9 81.00 9.5 8.2 23.0 16.6 1.6 4.2 67390SAFCO 2020.SE Hold 64.00 -0.4 -22.6 74.00 16.1 13.2 22.8 17.1 3.8 6.3 7110Severstal SVSTq.L Hold 10.94 3.6 30.8 8.80 6.9 7.1 11.4 12.6 3.4 4.4 8887Sibanye Gold SGLJ.J Hold 51.99 -2.4 125 41.00 3.7 3.0 10.9 9.8 2.7 3.1 3012Soda Sanayii SODA.IS Hold 4.99 1.2 16.0 4.85 6.8 5.7 9.7 7.8 1.8 3.8 1108South32 S32J.J Hold 18.63 -3.3 52.5 19.00 5.7 4.5 72.2 26.1 0.7 0.0 6300United Company RUSAL 0486.HK Hold 2.34 0.8 -1.4 2.55 10.2 8.3 8.4 5.2 1.1 0.0 4579Uralkali URKA.MM Sell 173 3.4 10.8 166.00 5.6 5.8 4.3 4.8 4.4 0.0 5484Yansab 2290.SE Hold 41.90 1.2 29.0 37.00 9.3 8.5 21.5 20.2 1.5 3.6 6284

Real EstateAldar Properties ALDR.AD Buy 2.61 -0.4 12.5 3.30 7.8 7.7 9.7 9.8 1.0 3.8 5587Arriyadh Development Co 4150.SE Hold 19.50 -0.5 13.4 17.00 14.0 13.5 14.4 14.2 1.3 5.1 693Attacq ATTJ.J Buy 19.48 -1.6 5.8 25.30 14.6 13.2 29.0 22.5 1.0 0.0 867Damac Properties DAMAC.DU Hold 2.32 -1.7 5.7 3.15 1.3 1.1 2.6 3.1 1.0 10.8 3821Dar Al Arkan 4300.SE Hold 5.55 -0.9 -10.4 5.90 16.0 13.8 19.5 15.7 0.3 0.0 1598Deyaar Development DEYR.DU Hold 0.61 -0.8 16.0 NA 71.5 29.3 44.8 21.2 0.7 0.0 958Emaar Economic City 4220.SE Hold 14.00 -1.4 8.3 11.50 31.9 20.5 28.2 17.6 1.3 0.0 3173Emaar Malls EMAA.DU Hold 2.77 -1.1 3.9 2.70 18.0 14.3 21.9 17.1 2.3 3.6 9815Emaar Properties EMAR.DU Buy 6.40 0.0 12.5 10.70 8.2 6.3 11.1 8.2 1.1 2.3 12475Emira Property Fund EMIJ.J Hold 15.20 -2.7 -7.1 19.00 6.8 6.3 10.5 9.7 0.8 0.0 491Emlak REIT EKGYO.IS Buy 2.72 -0.6 2.8 3.70 5.6 5.2 7.5 7.6 1.0 3.6 3478Etalon Group ETLNGq.L Buy 2.24 0.4 25.1 3.40 7.6 8.4 9.7 10.7 0.7 2.3 654Fortress FFBJ.J Buy 36.06 -1.2 2.5 37.30 7.8 7.4 3.6 3.0 0.9 0.0 1027Fortress Income Fund Ltd FFAJ.J Buy 15.25 -1.8 -6.1 17.00 5.2 5.2 1.7 1.4 0.4 0.0 434Growthpoint GRTJ.J Hold 23.45 -0.3 0.0 26.00 14.2 14.7 20.8 19.0 0.8 0.0 3992Hyprop HYPJ.J Buy 117 -0.5 12.3 140.00 20.2 17.5 19.3 17.4 1.1 0.0 1810LSR LSRGq.L Hold 2.10 0.0 5.0 2.70 5.6 5.2 7.0 6.2 1.0 11.4 1082Octodec Investments Ltd OCTJ.J Hold 22.36 -1.1 -2.6 25.60 5.6 5.2 5.1 4.9 0.7 0.0 338Palm Hills Developments PHDC.CA Buy 2.54 -1.2 -10.8 2.90 10.2 10.0 9.9 9.4 0.8 0.0 628Pivotal PIVJ.J Buy 16.61 -3.4 -2.6 27.00 14.2 13.9 19.9 18.3 0.8 0.0 187RAK Properties RPRO.AD Hold 0.59 -3.3 7.3 NA 15.7 15.3 23.0 20.9 0.3 8.5 321Redefine Properties Ltd RDFJ.J Hold 11.30 -0.6 15.4 13.00 12.0 11.1 6.6 6.2 1.0 0.0 2726Resilient Property Income Fund Ltd RESJ.J Hold 129 0.2 10.2 130.00 28.3 23.7 26.6 21.7 1.5 0.0 2937SA Corporate Real Estate Fund SACJ.J Hold 4.82 -1.2 3.8 5.10 8.3 7.6 11.2 10.3 1.0 0.0 623Saudi Real Estate Co. 4020.SE Hold 19.00 -0.3 -17.3 20.80 19.8 18.7 17.9 16.6 0.7 5.3 608Sinpas REIT SNGYO.IS Buy 0.62 1.4 -1.7 0.86 14.3 6.7 60.6 5.3 0.4 5.7 125SODIC OCDI.CA Buy 10.63 -1.9 -1.1 16.00 5.9 3.0 11.8 8.6 1.0 0.0 410TMG Holding TMGH.CA Buy 6.09 -1.3 -17.1 10.80 7.6 5.8 9.8 7.9 0.5 2.5 1431Union Properties UPRO.DU Hold 0.71 -1.4 -4.4 NA 82.7 60.0 133.9 79.1 0.5 0.0 698Vukile Property Fund Ltd VKEJ.J Hold 16.82 -1.6 -1.4 19.00 7.1 6.6 10.7 10.0 0.8 0.0 576

Telecommunication ServicesAFK Sistema SSAq.L Buy 7.65 1.3 29.7 8.24 na na 8.3 na na 0.0 3549Bezeq BEZQ.TA Hold 7.69 -0.6 -8.6 8.10 7.4 7.3 14.9 14.7 9.1 7.0 5535Global Telecom GLTDq.L Buy 1.70 1.8 30.8 3.00 3.0 2.5 11.3 9.0 3.8 0.0 1784Magyar Telekom MTEL.BU Sell 447 -1.9 13.6 377.00 4.7 4.6 16.1 16.1 0.9 0.0 1660MegaFon MFONq.L Hold 11.10 -0.4 -4.7 10.60 5.1 5.1 11.6 12.5 2.9 8.0 6612Mobily 7020.SE Sell 29.10 -2.0 3.3 25.00 6.8 5.9 116.3 33.7 1.4 0.0 5974MTS MBT.N Hold 9.06 -2.8 46.6 6.90 5.5 5.6 12.4 13.7 3.4 7.6 9009MTS MTSS.MM Hold 263 0.4 41.6 233.00 5.1 5.2 11.1 12.3 3.1 8.5 8010Netia NET.WA Hold 4.60 -4.7 -14.5 5.55 4.0 3.9 31.8 18.0 0.8 10.0 410O2 Czech Republic SPTT.PR Sell 232 0.2 -4.5 195.00 7.8 7.8 14.6 14.9 4.0 6.9 2998Ooredoo Group ORDS.QA Hold 89.80 -0.2 19.8 125.00 3.9 na 10.4 na 1.0 4.5 7902Ooredoo Oman ORDS.OM Buy 0.76 -0.6 6.7 1.32 3.2 2.5 9.5 8.4 2.0 5.0 1278Orange Polska SA OPL.WA Hold 5.93 -2.1 -9.3 6.65 4.5 4.8 na na 0.7 4.2 1995Rostelecom RTKM.MM Buy 98.80 -0.6 23.4 100.00 4.3 4.4 22.0 21.5 1.0 5.5 3837Saudi Telecom Company 7010.SE Buy 64.50 0.4 -5.4 85.00 3.9 3.6 10.0 9.9 1.9 6.2 34395Telecom Egypt ETEL.CA Buy 8.05 -0.6 21.0 11.50 6.8 2.0 11.8 3.2 0.5 6.2 1565Turk Telekom TTKOM.IS Hold 6.01 -1.9 8.2 6.00 5.8 5.7 12.5 11.5 3.4 2.5 7079Turkcell TCELL.IS Hold 10.67 -0.4 5.9 11.35 5.9 5.6 10.3 9.3 1.6 5.1 7899VimpelCom Ltd. VIP.OQ Buy 3.49 -2.5 6.4 6.35 3.9 3.4 12.4 10.4 1.5 1.0 6131

UtilitiesAkenerji AKENR.IS Hold 1.06 -0.3 9.7 1.00 12.4 11.3 na na 0.5 0.0 260Aksa Enerji AKSEN.IS Buy 2.52 -0.7 -2.5 3.46 7.0 na 9.2 na 1.3 0.0 520Aygaz AYGAZ.IS Buy 11.10 1.2 8.0 11.20 11.7 11.4 8.3 7.8 1.2 9.5 1121CEZ CEZP.PR Buy 440 -0.6 2.6 470.00 6.4 6.9 11.9 17.2 0.9 9.1 9807ENEA ENAE.WA Hold 10.70 -2.9 -5.0 12.00 5.1 5.4 7.3 7.5 0.4 3.7 1211Energa ENGP.WA Hold 10.42 -6.0 -17.3 12.50 4.3 4.6 6.5 6.7 0.5 5.8 1106PGE PGE.WA Hold 12.57 -3.3 -1.4 14.50 4.5 5.6 7.9 9.8 0.6 7.1 6025Qatar Electricity & Water QEWC.QA Hold 208 -0.3 -4.1 181.00 13.8 14.3 12.2 10.4 2.7 3.9 6270Saudi Electricity Company 5110.SE Hold 17.35 -0.3 10.3 16.50 11.0 10.9 23.2 22.5 1.1 0.8 19275Tauron TPE.WA Hold 2.69 -0.8 -6.3 3.00 4.4 4.8 4.9 4.7 0.3 3.7 1209


19 May 2016



Latam valuation



BanksBanco de Chile BCH.N Hold 61.14 -1.0 2.9 63.00 20.6 20.3 11.5 10.9 2.3 5.2 9796Banco do Brasil BBAS3.SA Hold 18.16 -1.0 39.5 21.00 12.4 12.7 3.3 2.9 0.6 5.2 14723Bancolombia CIB.N Hold 35.86 -0.4 34.1 31.00 13.3 13.6 9.8 8.7 1.2 3.9 8623Banorte GFNORTEO.MX Hold 96.39 -3.1 -4.1 89.00 13.5 14.0 13.3 11.7 2.2 1.9 14537Bladex BLX.N Buy 25.62 1.7 -1.2 28.00 11.7 12.0 8.6 7.9 1.0 6.8 997Bradesco BBD.N Hold 7.02 -2.0 45.9 6.00 18.1 17.1 7.5 7.0 1.4 4.5 38838Credicorp BAP.N Buy 145 -1.2 48.9 155.00 19.6 19.4 11.2 9.9 2.1 2.0 11555Itau Unibanco ITUB.N Hold 8.62 -0.6 36.4 7.00 18.6 19.0 8.4 7.3 1.6 3.8 51042Santander Brasil BSBR.N Sell 5.05 -1.0 29.8 3.00 8.3 8.4 11.9 11.6 1.3 4.8 19097Santander Chile BSAC.N Hold 18.47 -0.3 4.7 19.00 17.7 18.2 12.2 11.1 2.1 5.6 8701Santander Mexico BSMX.N Hold 8.90 -4.1 2.7 9.00 12.9 13.5 14.6 13.0 1.8 3.3 12080

Consumer DiscretionaryArezzo&Co ARZZ3.SA Hold 26.51 -1.8 41.5 22.50 13.3 10.9 19.1 15.8 3.6 3.4 665B2W BTOW3.SA Hold 10.38 -0.7 -23.6 14.00 7.9 7.2 na na 1.2 0.0 748Cia Hering HGTX3.SA Hold 13.65 -3.6 0.6 14.70 7.5 7.2 11.1 10.5 1.7 4.5 636Cnova CNV.OQ Hold 5.00 0.6 107 5.50 na na na na 29.4 0.0 2142Falabella FAL.SN Hold 5,049 0.7 14.6 4,800.00 13.1 na 21.4 na 2.9 1.2 17791Liverpool LIVEPOLC1.MX Hold 202 1.3 -9.1 209.00 16.7 14.6 25.9 22.8 3.6 0.5 14755Lojas Americanas LAME4.SA Sell 16.20 -0.2 12.6 12.60 11.0 9.5 74.2 40.6 12.0 0.5 6580Lojas Renner LREN3.SA Hold 21.57 -2.4 41.4 18.00 10.7 8.9 23.2 18.5 5.3 1.7 3842Magazine Luiza MGLU3.SA Hold 34.83 0.7 121 41.50 3.4 2.8 na 17.1 1.3 0.0 230Marisa Lojas AMAR3.SA Hold 8.00 -2.9 84.9 10.50 4.3 3.7 13.9 10.3 1.2 1.8 418Multiplus MPLU3.SA Buy 35.16 2.3 5.5 45.00 6.2 6.6 11.0 10.8 21.8 9.1 1614Smiles SMLE3.SA Hold 41.89 4.1 44.8 39.00 7.9 6.5 11.7 11.0 8.3 5.8 1459

Consumer StaplesAlmacenes Exito IMI.CN Buy 15,420 -1.4 19.6 19,000.00 2.7 2.1 17.0 11.6 0.2 7.1 2277AmBev ABEV.N Hold 5.14 -2.5 15.2 4.67 11.0 10.2 17.9 16.5 6.2 5.1 80655Arca Continental AC.MX Hold 124 -0.4 11.5 114.00 11.2 10.1 22.4 20.6 3.3 1.8 10826BRF S.A. BRFS.N Buy 12.99 -2.2 -6.0 18.00 7.0 6.1 12.0 9.9 2.3 2.7 10934CBD-Pao de Acucar PCAR4.SA Hold 41.98 -2.7 12.4 60.00 4.3 3.4 19.2 12.4 1.0 1.0 3151CCU CCU.N Hold 20.93 0.6 -3.4 23.00 9.0 8.2 19.4 17.3 2.3 2.3 3867Cencosud CEN.SN Hold 1,782 2.7 30.3 1,367.00 8.0 7.4 16.7 15.4 1.1 1.1 7297Chedraui CHDRAUIB.MX Hold 48.02 1.8 -1.3 47.75 8.3 7.1 21.2 17.5 1.6 0.6 2517Coca-Cola Femsa KOF.N Hold 79.44 -0.7 12.2 81.00 10.7 9.9 24.1 20.7 2.7 2.3 16467Concha y Toro VCO.N Buy 32.04 -2.0 7.5 44.00 9.2 7.7 12.6 10.7 1.6 2.4 1197Embotelladora Andina AKOb.N Buy 20.16 -0.8 15.8 22.00 8.2 7.4 19.3 17.0 2.2 1.9 3181Femsa FMX.N Hold 88.56 -1.7 -4.1 103.00 12.1 10.4 26.6 22.6 3.0 1.5 31689Gruma GRUMAB.MX Hold 262 0.0 2.5 277.00 11.9 10.8 22.1 18.4 4.5 0.9 6174Grupo Bimbo BIMBOA.MX Buy 56.85 -0.6 16.9 53.75 12.1 10.8 30.9 25.3 3.6 0.8 14538Hypermarcas SA HYPE3.SA Hold 30.10 -3.0 55.4 29.50 16.8 14.8 10.3 22.5 2.0 2.6 5383JBS JBSS3.SA Buy 11.65 -1.1 5.7 31.00 4.6 4.0 5.4 4.8 1.0 4.9 9468

Kimberly-Clark de Mexico KIMBERA.MX Hold 42.50 2.1 -0.5 44.00 14.2 13.1 25.6 22.3 19.2 3.6 7157

Marfrig MRFG3.SA Buy 6.33 -3.2 11.7 12.75 5.1 4.8 na 16.6 1.7 0.0 933

Minerva BEEF3.SA Buy 9.86 -2.4 -16.9 22.00 4.8 4.5 18.0 7.2 na 0.0 521

Natura NATU3.SA Sell 22.27 -1.1 6.2 26.00 7.8 7.1 15.1 12.0 9.8 7.2 2717

Soriana SORIANAB.MX Hold 42.21 0.3 1.0 39.00 8.6 7.5 18.1 15.9 1.4 0.9 4131

Wal-Mart de Mexico WALMEX.MX Hold 43.01 -1.5 -6.6 42.00 14.6 13.4 26.9 24.5 4.9 3.9 40834

Diversified Financials

BM&FBovespa BVMF3.SA Hold 16.51 -2.2 69.9 14.00 17.8 na 18.1 16.1 0.7 3.1 8325

Bolsa Mexicana BOLSAA.MX Buy 28.43 2.3 17.5 34.00 11.2 10.2 17.7 16.1 na 3.9 917

BTG Pactual BBTG11.SA Hold 18.70 1.9 39.7 30.00 na na 3.9 3.3 0.7 6.4 4966

Credito Real CREAL.MX Hold 38.10 -1.1 -17.3 41.00 2.2 2.2 8.9 7.6 1.9 1.8 813

Gentera GENTERA.MX Hold 33.27 0.6 -5.8 34.00 4.0 4.0 15.0 13.2 3.4 2.3 2944

Energy

Ecopetrol EC.N Hold 9.34 -3.8 33.2 10.00 5.6 3.4 15.6 5.6 1.2 1.8 19201Petrobras PETR4.SA Sell 9.32 -3.0 55.9 5.10 6.4 5.8 na na 0.5 0.0 34399Petrobras PETR3.SA Sell 12.01 -4.2 57.1 5.10 6.9 6.2 na na 0.6 0.0 44327YPF YPF.N Sell 20.89 0.5 32.9 11.20 3.6 3.0 12.4 8.5 0.6 0.4 8196

IndustrialsAvianca Holdings S.A. AVH.N Buy 5.56 -1.6 30.2 10.00 15.7 15.6 5.7 5.7 4.2 2.7 5567Copa Holdings, S.A. CPA.N Sell 53.55 -0.5 11.0 44.00 8.9 8.6 12.2 10.8 1.2 3.7 2349Embraer ERJ.N Buy 21.32 -0.5 -27.8 33.00 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.7 0.2 14.7 978GOL S.A. GOL.N Sell 7.72 -1.5 34.7 4.00 23.1 19.1 16.3 62.2 na 2.2 2186Grupo Aeromexico AEROMEX.MX Buy 38.76 -0.4 -6.8 43.00 5.4 4.9 13.6 12.9 2.2 0.0 1510LATAM Airlines Group S.A. LFL.N Hold 6.40 -1.4 18.7 7.00 8.2 6.6 63.5 9.3 1.2 0.5 3492Volaris VLRS.N Buy 20.59 0.1 20.0 24.00 92.8 83.7 150.0 148.1 41.0 0.0 20835

Information TechnologyCielo CIEL3.SA Hold 32.67 -4.1 31.9 32.00 14.9 13.2 18.9 16.5 5.5 1.4 20928MercadoLibre MELI.OQ Hold 133 1.3 15.9 115.00 33.4 27.7 50.2 44.1 8.3 0.0 5851

InsurancePorto Seguro PSSA3.SA Hold 26.23 -0.5 2.1 25.00 na na 8.4 7.4 1.3 4.1 2399

MaterialsAntofagasta PLC ANTO.L Hold 421 -1.9 -11.5 470.00 7.6 5.5 54.2 17.8 0.9 0.1 6068Fresnillo FRES.L Sell 1,144 -0.4 59.4 790.00 17.8 13.7 78.2 46.8 5.4 0.4 12322Grupo Mexico GMEXICOB.MX Hold 41.30 -0.7 6.4 50.00 8.8 6.8 18.2 12.8 1.6 1.1 17482Southern Copper SCCO.N Hold 26.80 -2.8 2.6 25.50 15.8 11.4 37.7 23.2 3.6 0.4 20960Vale VALE.N Buy 4.13 -4.2 25.5 6.50 7.7 5.9 26.6 18.7 0.6 0.0 21283


19 May 2016



Appendix1

Important Disclosures

Additional information available upon request *Prices are current as of the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated and are sourced from local exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors . Other information is sourced from Deutsche Bank, subject companies, and other sources. For disclosures pertaining to recommendations or estimates made on securities other than the primary subject of this research, please see the most recently published company report or visit our global disclosure look-up page on our website at http://gm.db.com/ger/disclosure/DisclosureDirectory.eqsr

Analyst Certification

The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned lead analyst about the subject issuers and the securities of those issuers. In addition, the undersigned lead analyst has not and will not receive any compensation for providing a specific recommendation or view in this report. Pascal Moura/Mairead Smith

Equity rating key Equity rating dispersion and banking relationships

Buy: Based on a current 12- month view of total share-holder return (TSR = percentage change in share price from current price to projected target price plus pro-jected dividend yield ) , we recommend that investors buy the stock.

Sell: Based on a current 12-month view of total share-holder return, we recommend that investors sell the stock

Hold: We take a neutral view on the stock 12-months out and, based on this time horizon, do not recommend either a Buy or Sell.

Newly issued research recommendations and target prices supersede previously published research.

Regulatory Disclosures

1.Important Additional Conflict Disclosures

Aside from within this report, important conflict disclosures can also be found

at https://gm.db.com/equities under the "Disclosures Lookup" and "Legal" tabs.

Investors are strongly encouraged to review this information before investing.

2.Short-Term Trade Ideas

Deutsche Bank equity research analysts sometimes have shorter-term trade

ideas (known as SOLAR ideas) that are consistent or inconsistent with

Deutsche Bank's existing longer term ratings. These trade ideas can be found

at the SOLAR link at http://gm.db.com.

45 % 48 %

7 %34 % 30 %

18 %0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

Buy Hold Sell

Global Universe

Companies Covered Cos. w/ Banking Relationship

19 May 2016



Additional Information

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19 May 2016



rates. For an investor who is long fixed rate instruments (thus receiving these

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19 May 2016



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19 May 2016



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19 May 2016



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