cavit financial model(1)
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Revenue Assumptions
Division A- BiopolymerScenario
Revenue Growth 1 2 32009 - - -2010 - - -2011 2.0% 20.0% 15.0%2012 2.0% 18.0% 17.0%
2013 2.0% 15.0% 18.0%2014 2.0% 10.0% 15.0%
2015 2.0% 8.0% 12.0%2016 2.0% 6.0% 10.0%2017 2.0% 4.0% 7.5%2018 2.0% 3.0% 3.0%
Scenario Revenues 1 2 3
2009 $0 $0 $0 2010 $18,000,000 $25,000,000 $36,000,000 2011 $18,360,000 $30,000,000 $41,400,000 2012 $18,727,200 $35,400,000 $48,438,000 2013 $19,101,744 $40,710,000 $57,156,840 2014 $19,483,779 $44,781,000 $65,730,366 2015 $19,873,454 $48,363,480 $73,618,010 2016 $20,270,924 $51,265,289 $80,979,811 2017 $20,676,342 $53,315,900 $87,053,297 2018 $21,089,869 $54,915,377 $89,664,896
Additional Sources of Revenue Scenario 1
International Licensing Revenue: Grants:
Burns Chronic Wounds Reconstruction AFFIRM Dept. of Defense2009 $500,000 2010 $1,000,000 $5,000,000 2011 $ 125,222,002 2012 $1,565,275 $ 292,184,671 2013 $3,130,550 $3,652,308 $ 30,406,107 2014 $4,695,825 $7,304,617 $380,076 2015 $6,261,100 $10,956,925 $760,153 2016 $7,826,375 $14,609,234 $1,140,229 2017 $7,904,639 $18,261,542 $1,520,305 2018 $7,983,685 $18,444,157 $1,900,382
Additional Sources of Revenue Scenario 3International Licensing Revenue: Grants:
Burns Chronic Wounds Reconstruction AFFIRM Dept. of Defense2009 $500,000 2010 $250,000,000 $1,000,000 $5,000,000 2011 $25,000,000 $250,000,000 $7,500,000 $5,000,000 2012 $25,000,000 $25,000,000 $250,000,000 $5,000,000 $5,000,000 2013 $25,000,000 $25,000,000 $25,000,000 $5,000,000 $5,000,000 2014 $25,000,000 $25,000,000 $25,000,000 2015 $25,000,000 $25,000,000 $25,000,000 2016 $25,000,000 $25,000,000 $25,000,000 2017 $25,000,000 $25,000,000 $25,000,000 2018 $25,000,000 $25,000,000 $25,000,000
Margin AssumptionsDivision A
2009 2010 2011Manufacturing (% of Revenues) 50% 50% 50%Lonza Sales Fee (% of Revenues) 15% 15% 15%Total Production Cost (% of Revenues) 65% 65% 65%Lonzas Share of Profit 50% 50% 50%McCoy's Profit (% of Revenues) 17.5% 17.5% 17.5%
Division BIn HUD Phase In PMA Phase
2009 2010 2011Manufacturing (% of Revenues) 85% 85% 85% Price Paid (per cm³) Administrative (% of Revenues) 15% 15% 15% Selling Price (per cm³) McCoy's Profit (% of Revenues) 0% 0% 0% Manufacturing (% of Revenues)
McCoy's Profit (% of Revenues)
Expense Assumptions2009 2010 2011
Operating ExpensesManufacturing Expenses- Division A $0 $12,500,000 $15,000,000 Manufacturing Expenses- Division B $0 $23,375,000 $46,750,000 Total Manufacturing Expense $0 $35,875,000 $61,750,000 Employee Expense HDE Application Clinical $30,000 $0 $0 HDE Application Technical $30,000 $0 $0 PMA Application Clinical $0 $100,000 $100,000 PMA Application Technical $0 $100,000 $100,000 Total Employee Expense $60,000 $200,000 $200,000 Laboratory: Trial Tech Transfer Verification Media Prep 1 $200,000 $400,000 $600,000 Media Release 1 $100,000 $200,000 $300,000
Lonza Skin Culture 1 $60,000 $120,000 $180,000 Cincinnati Skin Culture 1 $60,000 $60,000 $60,000 Lonza Mouse Graft Study 1 $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 Total Lab Expenses $470,000 $880,000 $1,290,000 Cost of Goods Sold $530,000 $36,955,000 $63,240,000
Sales, General & Administrative Lonza's "Sales and Marketing" Payments $0 $8,125,000 $9,750,000 CEO/Regulatory $100,000 $200,000 $200,000 COO/Corporate Liason $100,000 $200,000 $200,000 Senior Research Scientist Boyce $100,000 $100,000 $100,000 Adult Clinical Program Manager $50,000 $100,000 $225,000 National Securities 7% $525,000 $525,000 $0 Accounting Expenses Corporate Counsel $120,000 $200,000 $200,000 Total Personnel Expense $995,000 $9,450,000 $10,675,000 Patents $24,000 $24,000 $175,000 Office Supplies $1,200 $2,400 $4,800 Telephone, Internet Service $5,400 $10,800 $21,600 General Liability (Fire theft) $1,500 $3,000 $6,000 Product Liability $12,000 $24,000 $48,000 Key Man Insurance 3 Employees $5,400 $10,800 $21,600 Director & Officer Insurance $16,000 $32,000 $64,000 Employee Health Insurance $36,000 $72,000 $144,000 Marketing/Tradeshow/Conference $50,000 $100,000 $200,000 Employment Benefits $100,000 $200,000 $400,000 Travel $72,000 $144,000 $288,000 Increase in Patents & Legal due to Licensing Agreements 0 $25,000 $50,000 Increase in Travel due to Licensing Agreements 0 $25,000 $50,000 Additional Administrative Expense Related to HUD $0 $0 $0
Total Other Expenses $323,500 $673,000 $1,473,000 Total SG&A Expenses $1,318,500 $10,123,000 $12,148,000
R&D as % Gross Profit 10.0%R&D Expenses $0 $0 $0
Tax Rate Assumption2009 2010 2011 201235% 35% 35% 35%
Amortizaiton ScheduleYears to Amortize Intangibles 15
2009 2010 20112009 $ 4,000,000 $266,667 $266,667 $266,667 2010 $ 4,000,000 $266,667 $266,667 2011 $ - $0 2012 $ - 2013 $ -
Total Intangible Assets
2014 $ - 2015 $ - 2016 $ - 2017 $ - 2018 $ -
Total Amortization $266,667 $533,333 $533,333
Straight Line Depreciation ScheduleYears to Depreciat Office Equipment 5Years to Depreciate CAPEX 15
Capital Expenditures 2009 20102009 $ 30,000 $6,000 $6,000 2010 $ 30,000 $6,000 2011 $ 30,000 $ - 2012 $ 30,000 $ - 2013 $ 30,000 $ - 2014 $ - $ - 2015 $ - $ - 2016 $ - $ - 2017 $ - $ - 2018 $ - $ -
Total Depreciation $6,000 $12,000
CASH FLOW ASSUMPTIONS2009 2010 2011
Equity Issuance in Year 1 $7,500,000 $0 $0
Intangible AssetsLicensing payment Lonza Marketing & Distribution $2,000,000 $0 $0
Cutanogen Final Payment Lonza $0 $2,000,000 $0 Milestone Payment Boyce HDE app $1,000,000 $0 $0 Milestone Payment University Cincinati HDE APP $1,000,000 $0 $0 Milestone Payment Boyce PMA application $0 $1,000,000 $0 Milestone Payment University Cinncinati PMA APP $0 $1,000,000 $0 Total Intangible Asset Purchased $4,000,000 $4,000,000 $0 Amortization $266,667 $533,333 $533,333 Net Intangible Value $3,733,333 $7,200,000 $6,666,667
Capital Expenditures
Capital Expenditures $0 $0 $0 Asset Purchases Office Equipment $30,000 $30,000 $30,000
Total Capital Expenditures $30,000 $30,000 $30,000
Net Asset Value $24,000 $42,000 $54,000
Office Equipment Purchase
Balance Sheet Assumption2009 2010 2011
AssetsAccounts Receivable (% Revenues) 15% 15% 15%
Restricted Cash $0 $0 $0 Other Current Assets $0 $0 $0 Other Current Asssets $0 $0 $0 Existing Goodwill and Intangibles $0 $0 $0 Transaction Goodwill $0 $0 $0 Other Long-Term Assets $0 $0 $0
LiabilitiesAccounts Payable (% Revenues) 10% 10% 10%Other Current Liabilities $0 $0 $0 Existing Long-Term Debt $0 $0 $0 Exisiting Other Debt Affirm Grant Payment $500,000 $0
Other Long-Term Liabilities $0 $0 $0
Minority Interest $0 $0 $0
80%
If debt is incurred, make sure to account for interest
Valuation Assumptions
Cost of Equity- CAPM 2009 2010 2011 2012Risk Free Rate (20-Year Treasury) 4.47% 4.47% 4.47% 4.47%Beta 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0Risk Premium 25% 25% 20% 20%Cost of Equity- CAPM 29.5% 29.5% 24.5% 24.5%
Cost of DebtMilestone Payments Interest 0% 0% 0% 0%Working Capital Working Capital as % of Revenues 2%
Terminal Value CalculationTerminal Growth Rate 3.0%Discount Rate 10.0%
% of Dividend to be Paid out of CF After Operations and Investing Activities Post 2009
1 2 3 423456789
1011
Division B- HUD/PMAScenario
Revenue Growth 12009 -2010 -2011 -2012 -
2013 -2014 -
2015 0.0%2016 0.0%2017 0.0%2018 0.0%
Scenario Revenues 1
2009 $0 2010 $0 2011 $0 2012 $0 2013 $0 2014 $0 2015 $0 2016 $0 2017 $0 2018 $0
Additional Sources of Revenue Scenario 1 Additional Sources of Revenue Scenario 2
International Licensing Revenue:
Burns Chronic Wounds$500,000 2009
$6,000,000 2010$125,222,002 2011 $ 125,222,002 $293,749,946 2012 $1,565,275 $ 292,184,671 $37,188,966 2013 $3,130,550 $3,652,308 $12,380,518 2014 $4,695,825 $7,304,617 $17,978,178 2015 $6,261,100 $10,956,925 $23,575,838 2016 $7,826,375 $14,609,234 $27,686,486 2017 $7,904,639 $18,261,542 $28,328,224 2018 $7,983,685 $18,444,157
Total Additional Revenue
Additional Sources of Revenue Scenario 3Total Revenues
Scenario 1$500,000 2009 $500,000
$256,000,000 2010 $24,000,000 $287,500,000 2011 $143,582,002 $310,000,000 2012 $312,477,146 $85,000,000 2013 $56,290,710 $75,000,000 2014 $31,864,297 $75,000,000 2015 $37,851,632 $75,000,000 2016 $43,846,761 $75,000,000 2017 $48,362,828 $75,000,000 2018 $49,418,093
Margin AssumptionsDivision A
2012 2013 2014 2015 201650% 50% 50% 50% 50%15% 15% 15% 15% 15%65% 65% 65% 65% 65%50% 50% 50% 50% 50%
17.5% 17.5% 17.5% 17.5% 17.5%
Division B In PMA Phase
2012 2013 2014 2015 Price Paid (per cm³) $25.00 $25.00 $20.00 $20.00 Selling Price (per cm³) $55.00 $55.00 $55.00 $55.00 Manufacturing (% of Revenues) 45% 45% 36% 36%McCoy's Profit (% of Revenues) 55% 55% 64% 64%
Expense Assumptions2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
$17,700,000 $20,355,000 $22,390,500 $24,181,740 $25,632,644 $70,125,000 $93,500,000 $116,875,000 $119,796,875 $122,791,797 $87,825,000 $113,855,000 $139,265,500 $143,978,615 $148,424,441
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$100,000 $100,000 $0 $0 $0 $100,000 $100,000 $0 $0 $0 $200,000 $200,000 $0 $0 $0
$400,000 $200,000 $0 $0 $0 $200,000 $100,000 $0 $0 $0
Total Additional Revenue
$120,000 $60,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$100,000 $50,000 $0 $0 $0 $820,000 $410,000 $0 $0 $0
$88,845,000 $114,465,000 $139,265,500 $143,978,615 $148,424,441
$11,505,000 $13,230,750 $14,553,825 $15,718,131 $16,661,219 $200,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $200,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $100,000 $100,000 $100,000 $100,000 $100,000 $375,000 $375,000 $375,000 $375,000 $375,000
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$200,000 $200,000 $200,000 $200,000 $200,000 $12,580,000 $15,905,750 $17,228,825 $18,393,131 $19,336,219
$200,000 $200,000 $200,000 $200,000 $100,000 $9,600 $19,200 $19,200 $19,200 $19,200
$43,200 $86,400 $86,400 $86,400 $86,400 $12,000 $24,000 $24,000 $24,000 $24,000 $96,000 $192,000 $192,000 $192,000 $192,000 $43,200 $86,400 $86,400 $86,400 $86,400
$128,000 $256,000 $256,000 $256,000 $256,000 $288,000 $576,000 $576,000 $576,000 $576,000 $400,000 $800,000 $800,000 $800,000 $800,000 $800,000 $1,600,000 $1,600,000 $1,600,000 $1,600,000 $576,000 $1,152,000 $1,152,000 $1,152,000 $1,152,000 $50,000 $50,000 $50,000 $50,000 $50,000 $50,000 $50,000 $50,000 $50,000 $50,000
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$2,696,000 $5,092,000 $5,092,000 $5,092,000 $4,992,000 $15,276,000 $20,997,750 $22,320,825 $23,485,131 $24,328,219
$32,280,495 $7,343,397 $5,539,602 $6,330,054 $7,087,762
Tax Rate Assumption2013 2014 2015 2016 201735% 35% 35% 35% 35%
Amortizaiton Schedule
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016$266,667 $266,667 $266,667 $266,667 $266,667 $266,667 $266,667 $266,667 $266,667 $266,667
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0
$533,333 $533,333 $533,333 $533,333 $533,333
Straight Line Depreciation Schedule
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015$6,000 $6,000 $6,000 $0 $0 $6,000 $6,000 $6,000 $6,000 $0 $6,000 $6,000 $6,000 $6,000 $6,000
$6,000 $6,000 $6,000 $6,000 $6,000 $6,000 $6,000
$0 $0 $0
$18,000 $24,000 $30,000 $24,000 $18,000
CASH FLOW ASSUMPTIONS2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$533,333 $533,333 $533,333 $533,333 $533,333 $6,133,333 $5,600,000 $5,066,667 $4,533,333 $4,000,000
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $30,000 $30,000 $0 $0 $0
$30,000 $30,000 $0 $0 $0
$60,000 $60,000 $36,000 $18,000 $6,000
Balance Sheet Assumption2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
15% 15% 15% 15% 15%
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
10% 10% 10% 10% 10%$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0
If debt is incurred, make sure to account for interest
Valuation Assumptions
2013 2014 2015 2016 20174.47% 4.47% 4.47% 4.47% 4.47%
1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.020% 15% 15% 10% 10%
24.5% 19.5% 19.5% 14.5% 14.5%
0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
5 6 7 8 9
Division B- HUD/PMAScenario
2 3- -- -- -- -
- -- -
2.5% 5.0%2.5% 5.0%2.5% 5.0%2.5% 5.0%
Scenario2 3
$0 $0 $27,500,000 $90,000,000 $55,000,000 $125,000,000 $82,500,000 $200,000,000
$110,000,000 $600,000,000 $137,500,000 $750,000,000 $140,937,500 $787,500,000 $144,460,938 $826,875,000 $148,072,461 $868,218,750 $151,774,272 $911,629,688
Additional Sources of Revenue Scenario 2
International Licensing Revenue: Grants:
Reconstruction AFFIRM Dept. of Defense$500,000 $500,000
$1,000,000 $5,000,000 $6,000,000 $7,500,000 $5,000,000 $137,722,002
$293,749,946 $ 30,406,107 $37,188,966
$380,076 $12,380,518 $760,153 $17,978,178
$1,140,229 $23,575,838 $1,520,305 $27,686,486 $1,900,382 $28,328,224
Total Additional Revenue
Total Revenues2 3
$500,000 $500,000 $58,500,000 $382,000,000
$222,722,002 $453,900,000 $411,649,946 $558,438,000 $187,898,966 $742,156,840 $194,661,518 $890,730,366 $207,279,158 $936,118,010 $219,302,064 $982,854,811 $229,074,847 $1,030,272,047 $235,017,874 $1,076,294,583
Margin AssumptionsDivision A
2017 201850% 50%15% 15%65% 65%50% 50%
17.5% 17.5%
Division B In PMA Phase
2016 2017 2018$20.00 $20.00 $20.00 $55.00 $55.00 $55.00
36% 36% 36%64% 64% 64%
Expense Assumptions2017 2018
$26,657,950 $27,457,689 $125,861,592 $129,008,132 $152,519,542 $156,465,820
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$152,519,542 $156,465,820
$17,327,668 $17,847,498 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000
$100,000 $100,000 $375,000 $375,000
$0 $0
$200,000 $200,000 $20,002,668 $20,522,498
$100,000 $100,000 $19,200 $19,200 Assumed Growth Rate in Item Line Expense (Year 1 - 5):$86,400 $86,400 Assumed Growth Rate in Item Line Expense (Year 1 - 5):$24,000 $24,000 Assumed Growth Rate in Item Line Expense (Year 1 - 5):
$192,000 $192,000 Assumed Growth Rate in Item Line Expense (Year 1 - 5):$86,400 $86,400 Assumed Growth Rate in Item Line Expense (Year 1 - 5):
$256,000 $256,000 Assumed Growth Rate in Item Line Expense (Year 1 - 5):$576,000 $576,000 Assumed Growth Rate in Item Line Expense (Year 1 - 5):$800,000 $800,000 Assumed Growth Rate in Item Line Expense (Year 1 - 5):
$1,600,000 $1,600,000 Assumed Growth Rate in Item Line Expense (Year 1 - 5):$1,152,000 $1,152,000 Assumed Growth Rate in Item Line Expense (Year 1 - 5):
$50,000 $50,000 $50,000 $50,000
$0 $0
$4,992,000 $4,992,000 $24,994,668 $25,514,498
$7,655,531 $7,855,205
Tax Rate Assumption201835%
Amortizaiton Schedule
2017 2018$266,667 $266,667 $266,667 $266,667
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0
$533,333 $533,333
Straight Line Depreciation Schedule
2016 2017 2018$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$6,000 $0 $0 $6,000 $6,000 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0
$12,000 $6,000 $0
CASH FLOW ASSUMPTIONS2017 2018
$0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$533,333 $533,333 $3,466,667 $2,933,333
$0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0
$0 $0
Balance Sheet Assumption2017 2018
15% 15%
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
10% 10%$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0
$0 $0
Valuation Assumptions
20184.47%
1.010%
14.5%
0%
10 11
Forecasting Licensing Agreements and Royalty Payments CalculationsUSA STATISTICS USED FOR FORECASTING
Total expenditure on health as % GDP (2005)GDP (2008, official exchange rate)
S. Korea
05.9%²GDP (2008, official exchange rate) $ 857,500,000,000
Total Health Expenditure $ 50,592,500,000 Burns Market $ 69,681,520 Wounds $ 162,590,214 Reconstructive $ 12,310,402
Population and GDP figures from CIA world factbookHealth Data from WHO
2 Data reported from WHO on Republic of Korea Assumed Licensing Agreement as % of Mkt Value
S. KoreaTotal Health Expenditure $ 50,592,500,000 Implied Burns Market $ 69,681,520 Implied Wounds $ 162,590,214 Implied Reconstructive $ 12,310,402 Licensing Agreement Payment S. KoreaBurns Market $ 2,787,261 Wounds $ 6,503,609 Reconstructive $ 492,416
Additional Sources of Revenue Hlookup TableInternational Licensing
Burn1
2009 $ - 2010 $ - 2011 $ 125,222,002 2012 $ 1,565,275 2013 $ 3,130,550 2014 $ 4,695,825 2015 $ 6,261,100 2016 $ 7,826,375
Total Expenditure on Health as % of GDP (2005]
2017 $ 7,904,639 2018 $ 7,983,685
R&D as % of Gross Profit Under 0% Scenario 5.0%
100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Forecasting Licensing Agreements and Royalty Payments Calculations
Health Care Expenditure15.2% Burns Market
$14,330,000,000,000 WoundsReconstructive
China Japan India Denmark Finland
4.7% 8.2% 5.0% 9.1% 7.5% $ 4,222,000,000,000 $ 4,844,000,000,000 $ 1,237,000,000,000 $ 369,600,000,000 $ 281,200,000,000
$ 198,434,000,000 $ 397,208,000,000 $ 61,850,000,000 $ 33,633,600,000 $ 21,090,000,000 $ 273,304,991 $ 547,078,268 $ 85,186,579 $ 46,323,870 $ 29,047,453 $ 637,711,647 $ 1,276,515,958 $ 198,768,685 $ 108,089,029 $ 67,777,390 $ 35,347,446 $ 149,899,445 $ 5,395,150 $ 12,986,125 $ 7,532,973
Population and GDP figures from CIA world factbookHealth Data from WHOData reported from WHO on Republic of Korea
4%China Japan India "Europe" Denmark
$ 198,434,000,000 $ 397,208,000,000 $ 61,850,000,000 $ 1,564,861,800,000 $ 33,633,600,000 $ 273,304,991 $ 547,078,268 $ 85,186,579 $ 2,155,298,692 $ 46,323,870 $ 637,711,647 $ 1,276,515,958 $ 198,768,685 $ 5,029,030,282 $ 108,089,029 $ 35,347,446 $ 149,899,445 $ 5,395,150 $ 557,200,235 $ 12,986,125
China Japan India "Europe" Total $ 10,932,200 $ 21,883,131 $ 3,407,463 $ 86,211,948 $ 125,222,002 $ 25,508,466 $ 51,060,638 $ 7,950,747 $ 201,161,211 $ 292,184,671 $ 1,413,898 $ 5,995,978 $ 215,806 $ 22,288,009 $ 30,406,107
Additional Sources of Revenue Hlookup TableInternational Licensing
Burn Chronic Wounds2 3 1 2 3
$ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 250,000,000 $ - $ - $ - $ 125,222,002 $ 25,000,000 $ - $ - $ 250,000,000 $ 1,565,275 $ 25,000,000 $ 292,184,671 $ 292,184,671 $ 25,000,000 $ 3,130,550 $ 25,000,000 $ 3,652,308 $ 3,652,308 $ 25,000,000 $ 4,695,825 $ 25,000,000 $ 7,304,617 $ 7,304,617 $ 25,000,000 $ 6,261,100 $ 25,000,000 $ 10,956,925 $ 10,956,925 $ 25,000,000 $ 7,826,375 $ 25,000,000 $ 14,609,234 $ 14,609,234 $ 25,000,000
$ 7,904,639 $ 25,000,000 $ 18,261,542 $ 18,261,542 $ 25,000,000 $ 7,983,685 $ 25,000,000 $ 18,444,157 $ 18,444,157 $ 25,000,000
Forecasting FiguresScenario 2 Revs as % of Skin Graft Market ($11,000,000,000)
0.250% Year 10.500% Year 20.750% Year 31.000% Year 41.250% Year 5
Assumed Royalty PaymentAssumed Growth in Markets after first 5 years
NI Under Revenue Scenario 1 for Valuation Sheet in Print Doc2009 2010 2011 2012
Revenues $0 $25,000,000 $30,000,000 $35,400,000 COGS $530,000 $10,080,000 $10,670,000 $10,383,600 SG&A $1,318,500 $7,798,000 $8,265,000 $9,757,340 R&D $0 $0 $0 $0 Depreciation $6,000 $12,000 $18,000 $24,000 Amortization $266,667 $533,333 $533,333 $533,333 Pretax Profit ($2,121,167) $6,576,667 $10,513,667 $14,701,727 Tax $0 $2,301,833 $3,679,783 $5,145,604 Corresponding NI ($2,121,167) $4,274,833 $6,833,883 $9,556,122
NI Under Revenue Scenario 2 for Valuation Sheet in Print Doc2009 2010 2011 2012
Revenues $500,000 $58,500,000 $222,722,002 $411,649,946 COGS $530,000 $36,955,000 $63,240,000 $88,845,000 SG&A $1,318,500 $10,073,000 $12,048,000 $15,176,000 R&D $0 $0 $0 $32,280,495 Depreciation $6,000 $12,000 $18,000 $24,000 Amortization $266,667 $533,333 $533,333 $533,333 Pretax Profit ($1,621,167) $10,926,667 $146,882,669 $274,791,119 Tax $0 $3,824,333 $51,408,934 $96,176,891 Corresponding NI ($1,621,167) $7,102,333 $95,473,735 $178,614,227
Matrix CalculationsRevenue Matrix
US Company Value with a 0% Chance of the Skin Graft Getting FDA Approval2009 2010 2011 2012
US 0% Skin Graft $500,000 $31,000,000 $42,500,000 $35,400,000 COGS $530,000 $12,500,000 $15,000,000 $17,700,000
SG&A $1,318,500 $10,073,000 $12,048,000 $15,176,000 R&D $0 $0 $0 $885,000 Depr. & Amort $272,667 $545,333 $551,333 $557,333 EBIT ($1,621,167) $7,881,667 $14,900,667 $1,081,667 Taxes $0 $2,758,583 $5,215,233 $378,583 NI ($1,621,167) $5,123,083 $9,685,433 $703,083 Non-Cash Charges $272,667 $545,333 $551,333 $557,333 Less Net Working Capital ($10,000) ($610,000) ($230,000) $142,000 FCFF ($1,358,500) $5,058,417 $10,006,767 $1,402,417 PV of FCFF ($1,068,339) $3,072,521 $4,883,255 $549,829 Terminal Value $0 Sum of PV of FCFF $6,698,474 Value of Firm $6,698,474
US 100% Skin GraftRevenues $500,000 $58,500,000 $97,500,000 $117,900,000 COGS $530,000 $36,955,000 $63,240,000 $88,845,000 SG&A $1,318,500 $10,073,000 $12,048,000 $15,176,000 R&D $0 $0 $0 $32,280,495 Depr. & Amort $272,667 $545,333 $551,333 $557,333 EBIT ($1,621,167) $10,926,667 $21,660,667 ($18,958,828)Taxes $0 $3,824,333 $7,581,233 ($6,635,590)NI ($1,621,167) $7,102,333 $14,079,433 ($12,323,238)Non-Cash Charges $272,667 $545,333 $551,333 $557,333 Less Net Working Capital ($10,000) ($1,160,000) ($780,000) ($408,000)FCFF ($1,358,500) $6,487,667 $13,850,767 ($12,173,905)PV of FCFF ($1,068,339) $3,940,659 $6,759,108 ($4,772,883)Terminal ValueSum of PV of FCFF $16,549,853 Value of Firm $16,549,853
International RevenuesSouth Korea Burns $2,787,261 $34,841 Wounds $6,503,609 ReconstructiveSouth Korea Total $2,787,261 $6,538,449China Burns $10,932,200 $136,652 Wounds $25,508,466 ReconstructiveChina Total $10,932,200 $25,645,118Japan Burns $21,883,131 $273,539 Wounds $51,060,638 ReconstructiveJapan Total $21,883,131 $51,334,177
India Burns $3,407,463 $42,593 Wounds $7,950,747 ReconstructiveIndia Total $3,407,463 $7,993,341Europe
Burns $86,211,948 $1,077,649 Wounds $201,161,211 ReconstructiveEurope Total $86,211,948 $202,238,861
Incremental Change in SG&A Expenses as a result of Licensing Agreements (per Country)2009 2010 2011 2012
Patents & Legal $0 $5,000 $10,000 $10,000 Travel $0 $5,000 $10,000 $10,000 Total $0 $10,000 $20,000 $20,000
Value of South Korea Licensing Agreement2009 2010 2011 2012
Increase in Revenue $0 $0 $2,787,261 $6,538,449 Increase in Expenses $0 $10,000 $20,000 $20,000
$0 ($3,500) $968,541 $2,281,457 Increase in NI $0 ($6,500) $1,798,720 $4,236,992 Change in NWC $0 0 ($55,745) ($75,024)Change in FCFF $0 ($6,500) $1,742,974 $4,161,968 PV of FCFF $0 ($3,948) $850,563 $1,631,735 Value of South Korea Licensing Agreement $2,924,935
Value of China Licensing Agreement2009 2010 2011 2012
Increase in Revenue $0 $0 $10,932,200 $25,645,118 Increase in Expenses $0 $10,000 $20,000 $20,000
$0 ($3,500) $3,819,270 $8,968,791 Increase in NI $0 ($6,500) $7,092,930 $16,656,327 Change in NWC $0 0 ($218,644) ($294,258)Change in FCFF $0 ($6,500) $6,874,286 $16,362,069 PV of FCFF $0 ($3,948) $3,354,619 $6,414,888 Value of China Licensing Agreement $11,450,226
Value of Japan Licensing Agreement2009 2010 2011 2012
Increase in Revenue $0 $0 $21,883,131 $51,334,177 Increase in Expenses $0 $10,000 $20,000 $20,000
$0 ($3,500) $7,652,096 $17,959,962 Increase in NI $0 ($6,500) $14,211,035 $33,354,215 Change in NWC $0 0 ($437,663) ($589,021)Change in FCFF $0 ($6,500) $13,773,372 $32,765,194 PV of FCFF $0 ($3,948) $6,721,340 $12,845,874 Value of Japan Licensing Agreement $23,665,893
Value of India Licensing Agreement2009 2010 2011 2012
Increase in Revenue $0 $0 $3,407,463 $7,993,341 Increase in Expenses $0 $10,000 $20,000 $20,000
Increase (Decrease) in Taxes
Increase (Decrease) in Taxes
Increase (Decrease) in Taxes
$0 ($3,500) $1,185,612 $2,790,669 Increase in NI $0 ($6,500) $2,201,851 $5,182,671 Change in NWC $0 0 ($68,149) ($91,718)Change in FCFF $0 ($6,500) $2,133,702 $5,090,954 PV of FCFF $0 ($3,948) $1,041,236 $1,995,952 Value of India Licensing Agreement $3,495,956
Value of Europe Licensing Agreement2009 2010 2011 2012
Increase in Revenue $0 $0 $86,211,948 $202,238,861 Increase in Expenses $0 $10,000 $20,000 $20,000
$0 ($3,500) $30,167,182 $70,776,601 Increase in NI $0 ($6,500) $56,024,766 $131,442,259 Change in NWC $0 0 ($1,724,239) ($2,320,538)Change in FCFF $0 ($6,500) $54,300,527 $129,121,721 PV of FCFF $0 ($3,948) $26,498,399 $50,623,271 Value of Europe Licensing Agreement $93,030,003
NI ($1,621,167) $7,069,833 $95,408,735 $178,549,227 PV of FCFF ($1,068,339) $3,920,918 $45,225,265 $68,738,837
NI difference $0 $0 $0 Revenues $58,500,000 $222,722,002 $411,649,946 COGS $36,955,000 $63,240,000 $88,845,000 SG&A $10,123,000 $12,148,000 $15,276,000 R&D $0 $0 $32,280,495 Taxes $0 $3,806,833 $51,373,934 $96,141,891
NWC ($10,000) ($1,160,000) ($3,284,440) ($3,778,559)
FCFF ($1,358,500) $6,455,167 $92,675,628 $175,328,001 ($1,068,339) $3,920,918 $45,225,265 $68,738,837
$0 $0 $0 $0 ($1,068,339) $3,920,918 $45,225,265 $68,738,837
Increase (Decrease) in Taxes
Increase (Decrease) in Taxes
Forecasting Licensing Agreements and Royalty Payments Calculations
$ 2,178,160,000,000 $ 3,000,000,000 0.138% $ 7,000,000,000 0.321% $ 1,000,000,000 0.046%
France Germany Italy Netherlands Spain
11.2% 10.7% 8.9% 9.2% 8.2% $ 2,987,000,000,000 $ 3,818,000,000,000 $2,399,000,000,000 $ 909,500,000,000 $1,683,000,000,000
$ 334,544,000,000 $ 408,526,000,000 $ 213,511,000,000 $ 83,674,000,000 $ 138,006,000,000 $ 460,770,559 $ 562,666,654 $ 294,070,684 $ 115,244,977 $ 190,076,946 $ 1,075,131,303 $ 1,312,888,860 $ 686,164,928 $ 268,904,947 $ 443,512,873 $ 122,718,559 $ 144,230,219 $ 75,086,048 $ 24,931,330 $ 45,238,313
Finland France Germany Italy Netherlands $ 21,090,000,000 $ 334,544,000,000 $ 408,526,000,000 $ 213,511,000,000 $ 83,674,000,000 $ 29,047,453 $ 460,770,559 $ 562,666,654 $ 294,070,684 $ 115,244,977 $ 67,777,390 $ 1,075,131,303 $ 1,312,888,860 $ 686,164,928 $ 268,904,947 $ 7,532,973 $ 122,718,559 $ 144,230,219 $ 75,086,048 $ 24,931,330
Additional Sources of Revenue Hlookup TableInternational Licensing Grants
Reconstruction AFIRM1 2 3 1 2
$ - $ - $ - $ 500,000 $ 500,000 $ - $ - $ - $ 1,000,000 $ 1,000,000 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 7,500,000 $ - $ - $ 250,000,000 $ - $ - $ 30,406,107 $ 30,406,107 $ 25,000,000 $ - $ - $ 380,076 $ 380,076 $ 25,000,000 $ - $ - $ 760,153 $ 760,153 $ 25,000,000 $ - $ - $ 1,140,229 $ 1,140,229 $ 25,000,000 $ - $ -
Market as % of Health Expenditures
$ 1,520,305 $ 1,520,305 $ 25,000,000 $ - $ - $ 1,900,382 $ 1,900,382 $ 25,000,000 $ - $ -
Forecasting FiguresScenario 2 Revs as % of Skin Graft Market ($11,000,000,000)
20%1%
NI Under Revenue Scenario 1 for Valuation Sheet in Print Doc2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
$40,710,000 $44,781,000 $48,363,480 $51,265,289 $53,315,900 $10,160,872 $9,741,889 $9,936,727 $10,135,462 $10,338,171 $13,875,067 $13,999,228 $14,125,873 $14,155,050 $14,286,811
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $30,000 $24,000 $18,000 $12,000 $6,000
$533,333 $533,333 $533,333 $533,333 $533,333 $16,110,728 $20,482,549 $23,749,547 $26,429,444 $28,151,585 $5,638,755 $7,168,892 $8,312,341 $9,250,305 $9,853,055
$10,471,973 $13,313,657 $15,437,205 $17,179,138 $18,298,530
NI Under Revenue Scenario 2 for Valuation Sheet in Print Doc2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
$187,898,966 $194,661,518 $207,279,158 $219,302,064 $229,074,847 $114,465,000 $139,265,500 $143,978,615 $148,424,441 $152,519,542
$20,897,750 $22,220,825 $23,385,131 $24,228,219 $24,894,668 $7,343,397 $5,539,602 $6,330,054 $7,087,762 $7,655,531
$30,000 $24,000 $18,000 $12,000 $6,000 $533,333 $533,333 $533,333 $533,333 $533,333
$44,629,486 $27,078,258 $33,034,024 $39,016,308 $43,465,774 $15,620,320 $9,477,390 $11,561,909 $13,655,708 $15,213,021 $29,009,166 $17,600,868 $21,472,116 $25,360,600 $28,252,753
US Company Value with a 0% Chance of the Skin Graft Getting FDA Approval2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
$40,710,000 $44,781,000 $48,363,480 $51,265,289 $53,315,900 $20,355,000 $22,390,500 $24,181,740 $25,632,644 $26,657,950
$20,897,750 $22,220,825 $23,385,131 $24,228,219 $24,894,668 $1,017,750 $1,119,525 $1,209,087 $1,281,632 $1,332,898
$563,333 $557,333 $551,333 $545,333 $539,333 ($2,123,833) ($1,507,183) ($963,811) ($422,540) ($108,948)
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 ($2,123,833) ($1,507,183) ($963,811) ($422,540) ($108,948)
$563,333 $557,333 $551,333 $545,333 $539,333 ($106,200) ($81,420) ($71,650) ($58,036) ($41,012)
($1,666,700) ($1,031,270) ($484,128) $64,757 $389,373 ($524,981) ($271,894) ($106,839) $12,484 $65,577
US 100% Skin Graft$150,710,000 $182,281,000 $189,300,980 $195,726,226 $201,388,361 $114,465,000 $139,265,500 $143,978,615 $148,424,441 $152,519,542
$20,897,750 $22,220,825 $23,385,131 $24,228,219 $24,894,668 $7,343,397 $5,539,602 $6,330,054 $7,087,762 $7,655,531
$563,333 $557,333 $551,333 $545,333 $539,333 $7,440,520 $14,697,740 $15,055,846 $15,440,471 $15,779,288 $2,604,182 $5,144,209 $5,269,546 $5,404,165 $5,522,751 $4,836,338 $9,553,531 $9,786,300 $10,036,306 $10,256,537
$563,333 $557,333 $551,333 $545,333 $539,333 ($656,200) ($631,420) ($140,400) ($128,505) ($113,243)
$4,743,471 $9,479,444 $10,197,234 $10,453,134 $10,682,628 $1,494,110 $2,499,253 $2,250,354 $2,015,224 $1,799,133
International Revenues
$69,682 $104,522 $139,363 $174,204 $175,946$81,295 $162,590 $243,885 $325,180 $406,476
$492,416 $6,155 $12,310 $18,466 $24,621$643,393 $273,268 $395,559 $517,850 $607,042
$273,305 $409,957 $546,610 $683,262 $690,095$318,856 $637,712 $956,567 $1,275,423 $1,594,279
$1,413,898 $17,674 $35,347 $53,021 $70,695$2,006,059 $1,065,343 $1,538,525 $2,011,707 $2,355,069
$547,078 $820,617 $1,094,157 $1,367,696 $1,381,373$638,258 $1,276,516 $1,914,774 $2,553,032 $3,191,290
$5,995,978 $74,950 $149,899 $224,849 $299,799$7,181,314 $2,172,083 $3,158,830 $4,145,577 $4,872,461
$85,187 $127,780 $170,373 $212,966 $215,096$99,384 $198,769 $298,153 $397,537 $496,922
$215,806 $2,698 $5,395 $8,093 $10,790$400,377 $329,246 $473,921 $618,597 $722,808
$2,155,299 $3,232,948 $4,310,597 $5,388,247 $5,442,129$2,514,515 $5,029,030 $7,543,545 $10,058,061 $12,572,576
$22,288,009 $278,600 $557,200 $835,800 $1,114,400$26,957,823 $8,540,578 $12,411,343 $16,282,108 $19,129,105
Incremental Change in SG&A Expenses as a result of Licensing Agreements (per Country)2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
$10,000 $10,000 $10,000 $10,000 $10,000 $10,000 $10,000 $10,000 $10,000 $10,000 $20,000 $20,000 $20,000 $20,000 $20,000
Value of South Korea Licensing Agreement2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
$643,393 $273,268 $395,559 $517,850 $607,042 $20,000 $20,000 $20,000 $20,000 $20,000
$218,187 $88,644 $131,446 $174,247 $205,465 $405,205 $164,624 $244,113 $323,602 $381,577 $117,901 $7,403 ($2,446) ($2,446) ($1,784)$523,106 $172,027 $241,667 $321,157 $379,794 $164,769 $45,355 $53,332 $61,915 $63,964
Value of China Licensing Agreement2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
$2,006,059 $1,065,343 $1,538,525 $2,011,707 $2,355,069 $20,000 $20,000 $20,000 $20,000 $20,000
$695,121 $365,870 $531,484 $697,097 $817,274 $1,290,938 $679,473 $987,041 $1,294,610 $1,517,795
$472,781 $18,814 ($9,464) ($9,464) ($6,867)$1,763,719 $698,287 $977,578 $1,285,146 $1,510,928
$555,540 $184,103 $215,735 $247,759 $254,465
Value of Japan Licensing Agreement2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
$7,181,314 $2,172,083 $3,158,830 $4,145,577 $4,872,461 $20,000 $20,000 $20,000 $20,000 $20,000
$2,506,460 $753,229 $1,098,590 $1,443,952 $1,698,361 $4,654,854 $1,398,854 $2,040,239 $2,681,625 $3,154,100
$883,057 $100,185 ($19,735) ($19,735) ($14,538)$5,537,911 $1,499,039 $2,020,505 $2,661,890 $3,139,562 $1,744,344 $395,221 $445,891 $513,177 $528,755
Value of India Licensing Agreement2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
$400,377 $329,246 $473,921 $618,597 $722,808 $20,000 $20,000 $20,000 $20,000 $20,000
$133,132 $108,236 $158,872 $209,509 $245,983 $247,245 $201,010 $295,049 $389,088 $456,825 $151,859 $1,423 ($2,894) ($2,894) ($2,084)$399,104 $202,433 $292,155 $386,194 $454,741 $125,711 $53,371 $64,474 $74,453 $76,586
Value of Europe Licensing Agreement2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
$26,957,823 $8,540,578 $12,411,343 $16,282,108 $19,129,105 $20,000 $20,000 $20,000 $20,000 $20,000
$9,428,238 $2,982,202 $4,336,970 $5,691,738 $6,688,187 $17,509,585 $5,538,376 $8,054,373 $10,570,370 $12,420,918 $3,505,621 $368,345 ($77,415) ($77,415) ($56,940)
$21,015,206 $5,906,721 $7,976,958 $10,492,955 $12,363,979 $6,619,419 $1,557,305 $1,760,377 $2,022,901 $2,082,300
$28,944,166 $17,535,868 $21,407,116 $25,295,600 $28,187,753 $10,703,893 $4,734,609 $4,790,162 $4,935,428 $4,805,203
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$7,343,397 $15,585,320 $9,442,390 $11,526,909 $13,620,708 $15,178,021
$4,475,020 ($135,251) ($252,353) ($240,458) ($195,456)
$33,982,519 $17,957,950 $21,706,096 $25,600,476 $28,531,631 $10,703,893 $4,734,609 $4,790,162 $4,935,428 $4,805,203
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $10,703,893 $4,734,609 $4,790,162 $4,935,428 $4,805,203
Forecasting Licensing Agreements and Royalty Payments Calculations
Sweden Switzerland UK
9.2% 11.4% 8.2% $ 512,900,000,000 $ 492,600,000,000 $2,787,000,000,000
$ 47,186,800,000 $ 56,156,400,000 $ 228,534,000,000 $ 64,990,818 $ 77,344,731 $ 314,762,001 $ 151,645,242 $ 180,471,040 $ 734,444,669 $ 17,699,166 $ 15,391,602 $ 91,385,901
Spain Sweden Switzerland UK $ 138,006,000,000 $ 47,186,800,000 $ 56,156,400,000 ### $ 190,076,946 $ 64,990,818 $ 77,344,731 $ 314,762,001 $ 443,512,873 $ 151,645,242 $ 180,471,040 $ 734,444,669 $ 45,238,313 $ 17,699,166 $ 15,391,602 $ 91,385,901
Additional Sources of Revenue Hlookup TableGrants
AFIRM Dept. of Defense3 1 2 3
$ 500,000 $ - $ - $ - $ 1,000,000 $ 5,000,000 $ 5,000,000 $ 5,000,000 $ 7,500,000 $ - $ 5,000,000 $ 5,000,000 $ 5,000,000 $ - $ - $ 5,000,000 $ 5,000,000 $ - $ - $ 5,000,000 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ -
$ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ -
NI Under Revenue Scenario 1 for Valuation Sheet in Print Doc2018$54,915,377 $10,544,934 $14,421,207
$0 $0
$533,333 $29,415,902 $10,295,566 $19,120,336
NI Under Revenue Scenario 2 for Valuation Sheet in Print Doc2018
$235,017,874 $156,465,820 $25,414,498
$7,855,205 $0
$533,333 $44,749,018 $15,662,156 $29,086,861
US Company Value with a 0% Chance of the Skin Graft Getting FDA Approval2018
$54,915,377 ***From 2010 Onward Assumes Lab Expenses and Employee Expenses for HUD are Done upon FDA FAILURE$27,457,689
$25,414,498 ***Dropped R&D To 5% if HUD NOT APPROVE$1,372,884
$533,333 $136,973 $47,941 $89,033
$533,333 ($31,990)$590,376 $86,861
Assumes Terminal Value is Zero, Update when you get SG&A numbers for this scenario and have a realistic 2018 FCFF
US 100% Skin Graft$206,689,650 $156,465,820 What is Difference Between SG&A for him if HUD Does NOT GET APPROVE???????$25,414,498
$7,855,205 $533,333
$16,420,793 $5,747,278
$10,673,516 $533,333
($106,026)$11,100,823
$1,633,235
International Revenues
$177,705$410,540$30,776
$619,022
$696,996$1,610,222
$88,369$2,395,587
$1,395,186$3,223,203
$374,749$4,993,138
$217,247$501,891$13,488
$732,626
$5,496,550$12,698,301$1,393,001
$19,587,853
Incremental Change in SG&A Expenses as a result of Licensing Agreements (per Country)2018
$10,000 $10,000 $20,000
Value of South Korea Licensing Agreement2018
$619,022 $20,000
$209,658 $389,364
($240)$389,124 $57,251
Value of China Licensing Agreement2018
$2,395,587 $20,000
$831,455 $1,544,131
($810)$1,543,321
$227,065
Value of Japan Licensing Agreement2018
$4,993,138 $20,000
$1,740,598 $3,232,540
($2,414)$3,230,126
$475,240
Value of India Licensing Agreement2018
$732,626 $20,000
$249,419 $463,207
($196)$463,010 $68,122
Value of Europe Licensing Agreement2018
$19,587,853 $20,000
$6,848,748 $12,719,104
($9,175)$12,709,929
$1,869,978
$29,021,861 $4,330,890
$0
$15,627,156
($118,861)
$29,436,334 $4,330,890
$0 $4,330,890
Other Potentially Useful Forecasting StatisticsS. Korea China Japan India Denmark
0-14 Population 8,166,097 265,167,835 17,149,265 362,874,979 997,66415-64 Population 35,093,893 964,906,976 81,721,301 741,248,288 3,616,764
65 + Population 5,248,982 108,538,157 28,208,113 61,955,950 886,082Population Growth 0.266% 0.655% -0.191% 1.548% 0.280%
47.0%² 61.2% 17.8% 81.0% 15.9%Public Expenditure ### ### ### ### ###Private Expenditure ### ### ### ### $5,347,742,400
Private Expenditure on Health as % of Total Expenditures on Health (2005)
***From 2010 Onward Assumes Lab Expenses and Employee Expenses for HUD are Done upon FDA FAILURE
Assumes Terminal Value is Zero, Update when you get SG&A numbers for this scenario and have a realistic 2018 FCFF
What is Difference Between SG&A for him if HUD Does NOT GET APPROVE???????
Finland France Germany Italy Netherlands Spain Sweden Switzerland861,202 11,968,714 11,238,882 7,870,226 2,902,872 5,864,419 740,518 1,188,171
3,506,287 41,892,404 54,384,520 38,511,780 11,324,401 27,306,506 5,930,396 5,176,918
882,786 10,559,015 16,706,356 11,744,206 1,525,726 7,354,077 1,703,464 1,239,3780.098% 0.549% -0.053% -0.047% 0.412% 0.072% 0.158% 0.276%
22.2% 20.1% 23.1% 23.4% 35.1% 28.6% 18.3% 40.3%### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###
$ 4,681,980,000 ### ### ### ### ### ### ###
UK10,219,88741,020,711
9,872,6070.279%
12.9% $ 199,053,114,000 $ 29,480,886,000
Income Statement
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Net Sales $500,000 $58,500,000 $222,722,002 $411,649,946 $187,898,966 $194,661,518 $207,279,158 $219,302,064 $229,074,847 $235,017,874 % Growth NA 11600.0% 280.7% 84.8% -54.4% 3.6% 6.5% 5.8% 4.5% 2.6%
Cost of Goods Sold $530,000 $36,955,000 $63,240,000 $88,845,000 $114,465,000 $139,265,500 $143,978,615 $148,424,441 $152,519,542 $156,465,820 Gross Profit ($30,000) $21,545,000 $159,482,002 $322,804,946 $73,433,966 $55,396,018 $63,300,543 $70,877,623 $76,555,306 $78,552,054 Gross Profit Margin -6.0% 36.8% 71.6% 78.4% 39.1% 28.5% 30.5% 32.3% 33.4% 33.4%
SG&A $1,318,500 $10,123,000 $12,148,000 $15,276,000 $20,997,750 $22,320,825 $23,485,131 $24,328,219 $24,994,668 $25,514,498 SG&A (% of Sales) 263.7% 17.3% 5.5% 3.7% 11.2% 11.5% 11.3% 11.1% 10.9% 10.9%
R&D $0 $0 $0 $32,280,495 $7,343,397 $5,539,602 $6,330,054 $7,087,762 $7,655,531 $7,855,205 R&D (% of Sales) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.8% 3.9% 2.8% 3.1% 3.2% 3.3% 3.3%
EBITDA ($1,348,500) $11,422,000 $147,334,002 $275,248,452 $45,092,819 $27,535,591 $33,485,358 $39,461,642 $43,905,107 $45,182,351 EBITDA Margin -269.7% 19.5% 66.2% 66.9% 24.0% 14.1% 16.2% 18.0% 19.2% 19.2%
Depreciation $6,000 $12,000 $18,000 $24,000 $30,000 $24,000 $18,000 $12,000 $6,000 $0 Amortization $266,667 $533,333 $533,333 $533,333 $533,333 $533,333 $533,333 $533,333 $533,333 $533,333
Pretax Income ($1,621,167) $10,876,667 $146,782,669 $274,691,119 $44,529,486 $26,978,258 $32,934,024 $38,916,308 $43,365,774 $44,649,018 Pretax Margin -324.2% 18.6% 65.9% 66.7% 23.7% 13.9% 15.9% 17.7% 18.9% 19.0%
Income Taxes $0 $3,806,833 $51,373,934 $96,141,891 $15,585,320 $9,442,390 $11,526,909 $13,620,708 $15,178,021 $15,627,156 Effective Tax Rate 35.0% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0%Net Income to Common ($1,621,167) $7,069,833 $95,408,735 $178,549,227 $28,944,166 $17,535,868 $21,407,116 $25,295,600 $28,187,753 $29,021,861 Net Income Margin -324.2% 12.1% 42.8% 43.4% 15.4% 9.0% 10.3% 11.5% 12.3% 12.3%
Cash Flow Statement
Cash Flow from Operating Activities:Net Income
Plus: DepreciationAmortization
Funds Flow from Operations
(Increase) / Decrease in Accounts Receivable(Increase) / Decrease in Other Current Assets
(Increase) / Decrease in Current Operating Assets
Increase / (Decrease) in Accounts PayableIncrease / (Decrease) in Other Current Liabilities
Increase / (Decrease) in Current Operating Liabilities
(Increase) Decrease in Operating Working Capital
(Increase) / Decrease in Other Long-Term AssetsIncrease / (Decrease) in Other Long-Term Liabilities
Cash Flow from Operations
Cash Flow from Investing Activities:Less: Capital Expenditures
Cash Flow from Investing
OPERATING CASH FLOW AFTER INVESTING ACTIVITIES
Cash Flow from Financing Activities:Cash Flow from Anticipated Debt and Equity Issuance
Anticipated Issuance of New Common Equity IssuanceTotal Anticipated Debt and Equity Issuance
Total Change in Cash
Beginning Cash BalanceTotal Change in Cash
Ending Cash Balance
Cash Flow Statement
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
($1,621,167) $7,069,833 $95,408,735 $178,549,227 $28,944,166 $17,535,868 $21,407,116
$6,000 $12,000 $18,000 $24,000 $30,000 $24,000 $18,000 $266,667 $533,333 $533,333 $533,333 $533,333 $533,333 $533,333
($1,348,500) $7,615,167 $95,960,068 $179,106,560 $29,507,499 $18,093,201 $21,958,449
($75,000) ($8,700,000) ($24,633,300) ($28,339,192) $33,562,647 ($1,014,383) ($1,892,646)$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
($75,000) ($8,700,000) ($24,633,300) ($28,339,192) $33,562,647 ($1,014,383) ($1,892,646)
$50,000 $5,800,000 $16,422,200 $18,892,794 ($22,375,098) $676,255 $1,261,764 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$50,000 $5,800,000 $16,422,200 $18,892,794 ($22,375,098) $676,255 $1,261,764
($25,000) ($2,900,000) ($8,211,100) ($9,446,397) $11,187,549 ($338,128) ($630,882)
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $500,000 ($500,000) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
($873,500) $4,215,167 $87,748,968 $169,660,163 $40,695,048 $17,755,073 $21,327,567
$4,030,000 $4,030,000 $30,000 $30,000 $30,000 $0 $0
($4,030,000) ($4,030,000) ($30,000) ($30,000) ($30,000) $0 $0
($4,903,500) $185,167 $87,718,968 $169,630,163 $40,665,048 $17,755,073 $21,327,567
$7,500,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $7,500,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$2,596,500 $185,167 $87,718,968 $169,630,163 $40,665,048 $17,755,073 $21,327,567
$0 $2,596,500 $2,781,667 $90,500,635 $260,130,798 $300,795,846 $318,550,919 $2,596,500 $185,167 $87,718,968 $169,630,163 $40,665,048 $17,755,073 $21,327,567 $2,596,500 $2,781,667 $90,500,635 $260,130,798 $300,795,846 $318,550,919 $339,878,486
Cash Flow Statement
2016 2017 2018
$25,295,600 $28,187,753 $29,021,861
$12,000 $6,000 $0 $533,333 $533,333 $533,333
$25,840,934 $28,727,086 $29,555,195
($1,803,436) ($1,465,918) ($891,454)$0 $0 $0
($1,803,436) ($1,465,918) ($891,454)
$1,202,291 $977,278 $594,303 $0 $0 $0
$1,202,291 $977,278 $594,303
($601,145) ($488,639) ($297,151)
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$25,239,788 $28,238,447 $29,258,043
$0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0
$25,239,788 $28,238,447 $29,258,043
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$25,239,788 $28,238,447 $29,258,043
$339,878,486 $365,118,275 $393,356,722 $25,239,788 $28,238,447 $29,258,043
$365,118,275 $393,356,722 $422,614,765
Balance Sheet
2009 2010
ASSETS
Cash and Marketable Securities $2,596,500 $2,781,667 Restricted Cash $0 $0 Accounts Receivable $75,000 $8,775,000 Other Current Assets $0 $0
Total Current Assets $2,671,500 $11,556,667
Property, Plant & Equipment $24,000 $42,000 Existing Goodwill and Intangibles $3,733,333 $7,200,000 Transaction Goodwill $0 $0 Other Long-Term Assets $0 $0
Total Assets $6,428,833 $18,798,667
LIABILITIES & STOCKHOLDERS' EQUITY
Accounts Payable $50,000 $5,850,000 Other Current Liabilities $0 $0
Total Current Liabilities $50,000 $5,850,000
Existing Long-Term Debt $0 $0 Existing Other Debt $500,000 $0
Total Debt $500,000 $0
Other Long-Term Liabilities $0 $0 Total Liabilities $550,000 $5,850,000
Minority Interest $0 $0
Stockholders' Equity $5,878,833 $12,948,667 Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity $6,428,833 $18,798,667
Balance Sheet
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
$90,500,635 $260,130,798 $300,795,846 $318,550,919 $339,878,486 $365,118,275 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$33,408,300 $61,747,492 $28,184,845 $29,199,228 $31,091,874 $32,895,310 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$123,908,935 $321,878,290 $328,980,691 $347,750,147 $370,970,360 $398,013,584
$54,000 $60,000 $60,000 $36,000 $18,000 $6,000 $6,666,667 $6,133,333 $5,600,000 $5,066,667 $4,533,333 $4,000,000
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$130,629,602 $328,071,623 $334,640,691 $352,852,814 $375,521,693 $402,019,584
$22,272,200 $41,164,995 $18,789,897 $19,466,152 $20,727,916 $21,930,206 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$22,272,200 $41,164,995 $18,789,897 $19,466,152 $20,727,916 $21,930,206
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $22,272,200 $41,164,995 $18,789,897 $19,466,152 $20,727,916 $21,930,206
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$108,357,401 $286,906,628 $315,850,794 $333,386,662 $354,793,778 $380,089,378 $130,629,602 $328,071,623 $334,640,691 $352,852,814 $375,521,693 $402,019,584
Balance Sheet
2017 2018
$393,356,722 $422,614,765 $0 $0
$34,361,227 $35,252,681 $0 $0
$427,717,949 $457,867,447
$0 $0 $3,466,667 $2,933,333
$0 $0 $0 $0
$431,184,616 $460,800,780
$22,907,485 $23,501,787 $0 $0
$22,907,485 $23,501,787
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $22,907,485 $23,501,787
$0 $0
$408,277,131 $437,298,992 $431,184,616 $460,800,780
51 05/03/2023 14:09:23
INCOME STATEMENT
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Net Sales $500,000 $58,500,000 $222,722,002 $411,649,946 $187,898,966 $194,661,518 $207,279,158 $219,302,064 $229,074,847 $235,017,874 % Growth NA 11600.0% 280.7% 84.8% -54.4% 3.6% 6.5% 5.8% 4.5% 2.6%
Cost of Goods Sold $530,000 $36,955,000 $63,240,000 $88,845,000 $114,465,000 $139,265,500 $143,978,615 $148,424,441 $152,519,542 $156,465,820 Gross Profit ($30,000) $21,545,000 $159,482,002 $322,804,946 $73,433,966 $55,396,018 $63,300,543 $70,877,623 $76,555,306 $78,552,054 Gross Profit Margin -6.0% 36.8% 71.6% 78.4% 39.1% 28.5% 30.5% 32.3% 33.4% 33.4%
SG&A Expense $1,318,500 $10,123,000 $12,148,000 $15,276,000 $20,997,750 $22,320,825 $23,485,131 $24,328,219 $24,994,668 $25,514,498 SG&A (% of Sales) 263.7% 17.3% 5.5% 3.7% 11.2% 11.5% 11.3% 11.1% 10.9% 10.9%
R&D Expense $0 $0 $0 $32,280,495 $7,343,397 $5,539,602 $6,330,054 $7,087,762 $7,655,531 $7,855,205 R&D (% of Sales) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.8% 3.9% 2.8% 3.1% 3.2% 3.3% 3.3%
EBITDA ($1,348,500) $11,422,000 $147,334,002 $275,248,452 $45,092,819 $27,535,591 $33,485,358 $39,461,642 $43,905,107 $45,182,351 EBITDA Margin -269.7% 19.5% 66.2% 66.9% 24.0% 14.1% 16.2% 18.0% 19.2% 19.2%
Depreciation $6,000 $12,000 $18,000 $24,000 $30,000 $24,000 $18,000 $12,000 $6,000 $0 Amortization $266,667 $533,333 $533,333 $533,333 $533,333 $533,333 $533,333 $533,333 $533,333 $533,333
Pretax Income ($1,621,167) $10,876,667 $146,782,669 $274,691,119 $44,529,486 $26,978,258 $32,934,024 $38,916,308 $43,365,774 $44,649,018 Pretax Margin -324.2% 18.6% 65.9% 66.7% 23.7% 13.9% 15.9% 17.7% 18.9% 19.0%
Income Taxes $0 $3,806,833 $51,373,934 $96,141,891 $15,585,320 $9,442,390 $11,526,909 $13,620,708 $15,178,021 $15,627,156 Effective Tax RateNet Income to Common ($1,621,167) $7,069,833 $95,408,735 $178,549,227 $28,944,166 $17,535,868 $21,407,116 $25,295,600 $28,187,753 $29,021,861 Net Income Margin -324.2% 12.1% 42.8% 43.4% 15.4% 9.0% 10.3% 11.5% 12.3% 12.3%
***Income statement assumes FDA approval and licensing agreements with all countries planned are successful
52 05/03/2023 14:09:23
BALANCE SHEET
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
ASSETS
Cash and Marketable Securities $2,596,500 $2,781,667 $90,500,635 $260,130,798 $300,795,846 $318,550,919 $339,878,486 $365,118,275 $393,356,722 $422,614,765 Restricted Cash $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Accounts Receivable $75,000 $8,775,000 $33,408,300 $61,747,492 $28,184,845 $29,199,228 $31,091,874 $32,895,310 $34,361,227 $35,252,681 Other Current Assets $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Total Current Assets $2,671,500 $11,556,667 $123,908,935 $321,878,290 $328,980,691 $347,750,147 $370,970,360 $398,013,584 $427,717,949 $457,867,447
Property, Plant & Equipment $24,000 $42,000 $54,000 $60,000 $60,000 $36,000 $18,000 $6,000 $0 $0 Existing Goodwill and Intangibles $3,733,333 $7,200,000 $6,666,667 $6,133,333 $5,600,000 $5,066,667 $4,533,333 $4,000,000 $3,466,667 $2,933,333 Transaction Goodwill $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Other Long-Term Assets $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Total Assets $6,428,833 $18,798,667 $130,629,602 $328,071,623 $334,640,691 $352,852,814 $375,521,693 $402,019,584 $431,184,616 $460,800,780
LIABILITIES & STOCKHOLDERS' EQUITY
Accounts Payable $50,000 $5,850,000 $22,272,200 $41,164,995 $18,789,897 $19,466,152 $20,727,916 $21,930,206 $22,907,485 $23,501,787 Other Current Liabilities $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Total Current Liabilities $50,000 $5,850,000 $22,272,200 $41,164,995 $18,789,897 $19,466,152 $20,727,916 $21,930,206 $22,907,485 $23,501,787
Existing Long-Term Debt $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Existing Other Debt $500,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Total Debt $500,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Other Long-Term Liabilities $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Total Liabilities $550,000 $5,850,000 $22,272,200 $41,164,995 $18,789,897 $19,466,152 $20,727,916 $21,930,206 $22,907,485 $23,501,787
Minority Interest $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Stockholders' Equity $5,878,833 $12,948,667 $108,357,401 $286,906,628 $315,850,794 $333,386,662 $354,793,778 $380,089,378 $408,277,131 $437,298,992 Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity $6,428,833 $18,798,667 $130,629,602 $328,071,623 $334,640,691 $352,852,814 $375,521,693 $402,019,584 $431,184,616 $460,800,780
53 05/03/2023 14:09:23
CASH FLOW STATEMENT
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Cash Flow from Operating Activities:
Net Income ($1,621,167) $7,069,833 $95,408,735 $178,549,227 $28,944,166 $17,535,868 $21,407,116 $25,295,600 $28,187,753 $29,021,861 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Plus: Depreciation $6,000 $12,000 $18,000 $24,000 $30,000 $24,000 $18,000 $12,000 $6,000 $0 Amortization $266,667 $533,333 $533,333 $533,333 $533,333 $533,333 $533,333 $533,333 $533,333 $533,333
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Funds Flow from Operations ($1,348,500) $7,615,167 $95,960,068 $179,106,560 $29,507,499 $18,093,201 $21,958,449 $25,840,934 $28,727,086 $29,555,195
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 (Increase) / Decrease in Accounts Receivable ($75,000) ($8,700,000) ($24,633,300) ($28,339,192) $33,562,647 ($1,014,383) ($1,892,646) ($1,803,436) ($1,465,918) ($891,454)(Increase) / Decrease in Other Current Assets $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
(Increase) / Decrease in Current Operating Assets ($75,000) ($8,700,000) ($24,633,300) ($28,339,192) $33,562,647 ($1,014,383) ($1,892,646) ($1,803,436) ($1,465,918) ($891,454)$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Increase / (Decrease) in Accounts Payable $50,000 $5,800,000 $16,422,200 $18,892,794 ($22,375,098) $676,255 $1,261,764 $1,202,291 $977,278 $594,303 Increase / (Decrease) in Other Current Liabilities $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Increase / (Decrease) in Current Operating Liabilities $50,000 $5,800,000 $16,422,200 $18,892,794 ($22,375,098) $676,255 $1,261,764 $1,202,291 $977,278 $594,303
(Increase) Decrease in Operating Working Capital ($25,000) ($2,900,000) ($8,211,100) ($9,446,397) $11,187,549 ($338,128) ($630,882) ($601,145) ($488,639) ($297,151)
(Increase) / Decrease in Other Long-Term Assets $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Increase / (Decrease) in Other Long-Term Liabilities $500,000 ($500,000) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Cash Flow from Operations ($873,500) $4,215,167 $87,748,968 $169,660,163 $40,695,048 $17,755,073 $21,327,567 $25,239,788 $28,238,447 $29,258,043
Cash Flow from Investing Activities: $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Less: Capital Expenditures $4,030,000 $4,030,000 $30,000 $30,000 $30,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Cash Flow from Investing ($4,030,000) ($4,030,000) ($30,000) ($30,000) ($30,000) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
OPERATING CASH FLOW AFTER INVESTING ACTIVITIES ($4,903,500) $185,167 $87,718,968 $169,630,163 $40,665,048 $17,755,073 $21,327,567 $25,239,788 $28,238,447 $29,258,043 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Cash Flow from Financing Activities: $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Cash Flow from Anticipated Debt and Equity Issuance $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Anticipated Issuance of New Common Equity Issuance $7,500,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Total Anticipated Debt and Equity Issuance $7,500,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Total Change in Cash $2,596,500 $185,167 $87,718,968 $169,630,163 $40,665,048 $17,755,073 $21,327,567 $25,239,788 $28,238,447 $29,258,043 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Beginning Cash Balance $0 $2,596,500 $2,781,667 $90,500,635 $260,130,798 $300,795,846 $318,550,919 $339,878,486 $365,118,275 $393,356,722 Total Change in Cash $2,596,500 $185,167 $87,718,968 $169,630,163 $40,665,048 $17,755,073 $21,327,567 $25,239,788 $28,238,447 $29,258,043
Ending Cash Balance $2,596,500 $2,781,667 $90,500,635 $260,130,798 $300,795,846 $318,550,919 $339,878,486 $365,118,275 $393,356,722 $422,614,765
54 05/03/2023 14:09:23
REVENUE AND MARGIN ASSUMPTIONS
Division A- Biopolymer Division B- HUD/PMARevenue Growth Revenue Growth
2009 - 2009 -2010 - 2010 -2011 20.0% 2011 -2012 18.0% 2012 -
Additional Sources of Revenue Total Annual Revenues2013 15.0% 2013 -2014 10.0% 2014 - International Licensing Revenue: Grants:2015 8.0% 2015 2.5% Burns Chronic Wounds Reconstruction AFFIRM Dept. of Defense 2009 $500,000 2016 6.0% 2016 2.5% 2009 $500,000 $500,000 2010 $58,500,000 2017 4.0% 2017 2.5% 2010 $1,000,000 $5,000,000 $6,000,000 2011 $222,722,002 2018 3.0% 2018 2.5% 2011 $125,222,002 $7,500,000 $5,000,000 $137,722,002 2012 $411,649,946
2012 $1,565,275 $292,184,671 $293,749,946 2013 $187,898,966 Revenues Revenues 2013 $3,130,550 $3,652,308 $30,406,107 $37,188,966 2014 $194,661,518
2009 $0 2009 $0 2014 $4,695,825 $7,304,617 $380,076 $12,380,518 2015 $207,279,158 2010 $25,000,000 2010 $27,500,000 2015 $6,261,100 $10,956,925 $760,153 $17,978,178 2016 $219,302,064 2011 $30,000,000 2011 $55,000,000 2016 $7,826,375 $14,609,234 $1,140,229 $23,575,838 2017 $229,074,847 2012 $35,400,000 2012 $82,500,000 2017 $7,904,639 $18,261,542 $1,520,305 $27,686,486 2018 $235,017,874 2013 $40,710,000 2013 $110,000,000 2018 $7,983,685 $18,444,157 $1,900,382 $28,328,224 2014 $44,781,000 2014 $137,500,000 2015 $48,363,480 2015 $140,937,500 2016 $51,265,289 2016 $144,460,938 2017 $53,315,900 2017 $148,072,461 2018 $54,915,377 2018 $151,774,272
Margin AssumptionsDivision A
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Manufacturing (% of Revenues) 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50%Lonza Sales Fee (% of Revenues) 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15%Total Production Cost (% of Revenues) 65% 65% 65% 65% 65% 65% 65% 65% 65% 65%Lonzas Share of Profit 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 McCoy's Profit (% of Revenues) 17.5% 17.5% 17.5% 17.5% 17.5% 17.5% 17.5% 17.5% 17.5% 17.5%
Division B In HUD Phase In PMA Phase 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Manufacturing (% of Revenues) 85% 85% 85% Price Paid (per cm³) $ 25.00 $ 25.00 $ 20.00 $ 20.00 $ 20.00 $ 20.00 $ 20.00 Administrative (% of Revenues) 15% 15% 15% Selling Price (per cm³) $ 55.00 $ 55.00 $ 55.00 $ 55.00 $ 55.00 $ 55.00 $ 55.00 McCoy's Profit (% of Revenues) 0% 0% 0% Manufacturing (% of Revenues) $ 0.45 $ 0.45 $ 0.36 $ 0.36 $ 0.36 $ 0.36 $ 0.36
McCoy's Profit (% of Revenues) $ 0.55 $ 0.55 $ 0.64 $ 0.64 $ 0.64 $ 0.64 $ 0.64
Total Additional Revenue
55 05/03/2023 14:09:23
EXPENSE ASSUMPTIONS
Operating Expenses 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Manufacturing Expenses- Division A $0 $12,500,000 $15,000,000 $17,700,000 $20,355,000 $22,390,500 $24,181,740 $25,632,644 $26,657,950 $27,457,689 Manufacturing Expenses- Division B $0 $23,375,000 $46,750,000 $70,125,000 $93,500,000 $116,875,000 $119,796,875 $122,791,797 $125,861,592 $129,008,132 Total Manufacturing Expense $0 $35,875,000 $61,750,000 $87,825,000 $113,855,000 $139,265,500 $143,978,615 $148,424,441 $152,519,542 $156,465,820 Employee Expense $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Senior Research Scientist Boyce $100,000 $100,000 $100,000 $100,000 $100,000 $100,000 $100,000 $100,000 $100,000 $100,000 HDE Application Clinical $30,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 HDE Application Technical $30,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 PMA Application Clinical $0 $100,000 $100,000 $100,000 $100,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 PMA Application Technical $0 $100,000 $100,000 $100,000 $100,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Total Employee Expense $60,000 $200,000 $200,000 $200,000 $200,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Laboratory: Trial Tech Transfer Verification $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Media Prep 1 $200,000 $400,000 $600,000 $400,000 $200,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Media Release 1 $100,000 $200,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Lonza Skin Culture 1 $60,000 $120,000 $180,000 $120,000 $60,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Cincinnati Skin Culture 1 $60,000 $60,000 $60,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Lonza Mouse Graft Study 1 $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Total Lab Expenses $470,000 $880,000 $1,290,000 $820,000 $410,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Cost of Goods Sold $530,000 $36,955,000 $63,240,000 $88,845,000 $114,465,000 $139,265,500 $143,978,615 $148,424,441 $152,519,542 $156,465,820
Sales, General & Administrative 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Lonza's "Sales and Marketing" Payments $0 $8,125,000 $9,750,000 $11,505,000 $13,230,750 $14,553,825 $15,718,131 $16,661,219 $17,327,668 $17,847,498 CEO/Regulatory $100,000 $200,000 $200,000 $200,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 COO/Corporate Liason $100,000 $200,000 $200,000 $200,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 Adult Clinical Program Manager $50,000 $100,000 $225,000 $375,000 $375,000 $375,000 $375,000 $375,000 $375,000 $375,000 National Securities 7% $525,000 $525,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Corporate Counsel $120,000 $200,000 $200,000 $200,000 $200,000 $200,000 $200,000 $200,000 $200,000 $200,000 Total Personnel Expense $995,000 $9,450,000 $10,675,000 $12,580,000 $15,905,750 $17,228,825 $18,393,131 $19,336,219 $20,002,668 $20,522,498 Patents $24,000 $24,000 $175,000 $200,000 $200,000 $200,000 $200,000 $100,000 $100,000 $100,000 Office Supplies $1,200 $2,400 $4,800 $9,600 $19,200 $19,200 $19,200 $19,200 $19,200 $19,200 Telephone, Internet Service $5,400 $10,800 $21,600 $43,200 $86,400 $86,400 $86,400 $86,400 $86,400 $86,400 General Liability (Fire theft) $1,500 $3,000 $6,000 $12,000 $24,000 $24,000 $24,000 $24,000 $24,000 $24,000 Product Liability $12,000 $24,000 $48,000 $96,000 $192,000 $192,000 $192,000 $192,000 $192,000 $192,000 Key Man Insurance 3 Employees $5,400 $10,800 $21,600 $43,200 $86,400 $86,400 $86,400 $86,400 $86,400 $86,400 Director & Officer Insurance $16,000 $32,000 $64,000 $128,000 $256,000 $256,000 $256,000 $256,000 $256,000 $256,000 Employee Health Insurance $36,000 $72,000 $144,000 $288,000 $576,000 $576,000 $576,000 $576,000 $576,000 $576,000 Marketing/Tradeshow/Conference $50,000 $100,000 $200,000 $400,000 $800,000 $800,000 $800,000 $800,000 $800,000 $800,000 Employment Benefits $100,000 $200,000 $400,000 $800,000 $1,600,000 $1,600,000 $1,600,000 $1,600,000 $1,600,000 $1,600,000 Travel $72,000 $144,000 $288,000 $576,000 $1,152,000 $1,152,000 $1,152,000 $1,152,000 $1,152,000 $1,152,000 Administrative Expense Related to HUD $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Total Other Expenses $323,500 $673,000 $1,473,000 $2,696,000 $5,092,000 $5,092,000 $5,092,000 $4,992,000 $4,992,000 $4,992,000 Total Expenses $1,318,500 $10,123,000 $12,148,000 $15,276,000 $20,997,750 $22,320,825 $23,485,131 $24,328,219 $24,994,668 $25,514,498
Tax Rate Assumption2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 201835% 35% 35% 35% 35% 35% 35% 35% 35% 35%
56 05/03/2023 14:09:23
DEPRECIATION AND AMORTIZATION SCHEDULE
Amortizaiton Schedule
Years to Amortize Intangibles 15
Total Intangible Assets 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
2009 $ 4,000,000 $266,667 $266,667 $266,667 $266,667 $266,667 $266,667 $266,667 $266,667 $266,667 $266,667
2010 $ 4,000,000 $266,667 $266,667 $266,667 $266,667 $266,667 $266,667 $266,667 $266,667 $266,667
2011 $ - $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
2012 $ - $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
2013 $ - $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
2014 $ - $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
2015 $ - $0 $0 $0 $0
2016 $ - $0 $0 $0
2017 $ - $0 $0
2018 $ - $0
Total Amortization $266,667 $533,333 $533,333 $533,333 $533,333 $533,333 $533,333 $533,333 $533,333 $533,333
Depreciation Schedule
Years to Depreciat Office Equipment 5
Years to Depreciate CAPEX 15
Capital Expenditures 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20182009 $ 30,000 $ - $6,000 $6,000 $6,000 $6,000 $6,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
2010 $ 30,000 $ - $6,000 $6,000 $6,000 $6,000 $6,000 $0 $0 $0 $0
2011 $ 30,000 $ - $6,000 $6,000 $6,000 $6,000 $6,000 $0 $0 $0
2012 $ 30,000 $ - $6,000 $6,000 $6,000 $6,000 $6,000 $0 $0
2013 $ 30,000 $ - $6,000 $6,000 $6,000 $6,000 $6,000 $0
2014 $ - $ - $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
2015 $ - $ - $0 $0 $0 $0
2016 $ - $ - $0 $0 $0
2017 $ - $ - $0 $0
2018 $ - $ - $0
Office Equipment Purchase
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OTHER FINANCIAL ASSUMPTIONS
Cash Flow Assumptions2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Equity Issuance in Year 1 $7,500,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Intangible Assets $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Licensing payment Lonza Marketing & Distribution $2,000,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Cutanogen Final Payment Lonza $0 $2,000,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Milestone Payment Boyce HDE app $1,000,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Milestone Payment University Cincinati HDE APP $1,000,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Milestone Payment Boyce PMA application $0 $1,000,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Milestone Payment University Cinncinati PMA APP $0 $1,000,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Total Intangible Asset Purchased $4,000,000 $4,000,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Amortization $266,667 $533,333 $533,333 $533,333 $533,333 $533,333 $533,333 $533,333 $533,333 $533,333 Net Intangible Value $3,733,333 $7,200,000 $6,666,667 $6,133,333 $5,600,000 $5,066,667 $4,533,333 $4,000,000 $3,466,667 $2,933,333
Capital Expenditures $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Capital Expenditures $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Asset Purchases Office Equipment $30,000 $30,000 $30,000 $30,000 $30,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Total Capital Expenditures $30,000 $30,000 $30,000 $30,000 $30,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Net Asset Value $24,000 $42,000 $54,000 $60,000 $60,000 $36,000 $18,000 $6,000 $0 $0
Balance Sheet Assumption2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
AssetsAccounts Receivable (% Revenues) 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25%
Restricted Cash $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Other Current Assets $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Other Current Asssets $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Existing Goodwill and Intangibles $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Transaction Goodwill $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Other Long-Term Assets $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
LiabilitiesAccounts Payable (% Revenues) 33% 33% 33% 33% 33% 33% 33% 33% 33% 33%
Other Current Liabilities $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Existing Long-Term Debt $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Exisiting Other Debt Affirm Grant Payment $500,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Other Long-Term Liabilities $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Minority Interest $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
80%% of Dividend to be Paid out of "CF After Operations and Investing Activities" Post 2009
58 05/03/2023 14:09:23
FORECASTING INTERNATIONAL LICENSING AGREEMENT AND ROYALTY PAYMENT CASH FLOWS
USA STATISTICS USED FOR FORECASTING
Total expenditure on health as % GDP (2005) 15.2%GDP (2008, official exchange rate) $14,330,000,000,000
Health Care Expenditure $ 2,178,160,000,000 Market as % of Health Expenditures
Burns Market $ 3,000,000,000 0.138%
Wounds $ 7,000,000,000 0.321%
Reconstructive $ 1,000,000,000 0.046%
S. Korea China Japan India Denmark Finland France Germany Italy Netherlands Spain Sweden Switzerland UK
5.9% 4.7% 8.2% 5.0% 9.1% 7.5% 11.2% 10.7% 8.9% 9.2% 8.2% 9.2% 11.4% 8.2%
$ 857,500,000,000 $ 4,222,000,000,000 $ 4,844,000,000,000 $ 1,237,000,000,000 $ 369,600,000,000 $ 281,200,000,000 $ 2,987,000,000,000 $3,818,000,000,000 $ 2,399,000,000,000 $ 909,500,000,000 $1,683,000,000,000 $ 512,900,000,000 $ 492,600,000,000 $ 2,787,000,000,000
$ 50,592,500,000 $ 198,434,000,000 $ 397,208,000,000 $ 61,850,000,000 $ 33,633,600,000 $ 21,090,000,000 $ 334,544,000,000 $ 408,526,000,000 $ 213,511,000,000 $ 83,674,000,000 $ 138,006,000,000 $ 47,186,800,000 $ 56,156,400,000 $ 228,534,000,000 Burns Market $ 69,681,520 $ 273,304,991 $ 547,078,268 $ 85,186,579 $ 46,323,870 $ 29,047,453 $ 460,770,559 $ 562,666,654 $ 294,070,684 $ 115,244,977 $ 190,076,946 $ 64,990,818 $ 77,344,731 $ 314,762,001 Wounds $ 162,590,214 $ 637,711,647 $ 1,276,515,958 $ 198,768,685 $ 108,089,029 $ 67,777,390 $ 1,075,131,303 $ 1,312,888,860 $ 686,164,928 $ 268,904,947 $ 443,512,873 $ 151,645,242 $ 180,471,040 $ 734,444,669 Reconstructive $ 12,310,402 $ 35,347,446 $ 149,899,445 $ 5,395,150 $ 12,986,125 $ 7,532,973 $ 122,718,559 $ 144,230,219 $ 75,086,048 $ 24,931,330 $ 45,238,313 $ 17,699,166 $ 15,391,602 $ 91,385,901
**WHO data for health expenditures as % of GDP available for all countries except S. Korea, where Republic of Korea information was used as proxy
S. Korea China Japan India "Europe"
Total Health Expenditure $ 50,592,500,000 $ 198,434,000,000 $ 397,208,000,000 $ 61,850,000,000 $ 1,564,861,800,000 Assumed Skin Graft PenetrationBurns Market $ 69,681,520 $ 273,304,991 $ 547,078,268 $ 85,186,579 $ 2,155,298,692
Wounds $ 162,590,214 $ 637,711,647 $ 1,276,515,958 $ 198,768,685 $ 5,029,030,282 0.250% Yeaer 1Reconstructive $ 12,310,402 $ 35,347,446 $ 149,899,445 $ 5,395,150 $ 557,200,235 0.750% Year 2
1.000% Year 3Assumed Licensing Agreement as % of Mkt Value 4% 1.636% Year 4See following page for justification 5.000% Year 5
Licensing Agreement Payment Assumed Royalty Payment 20% S. Korea China Japan India "Europe" Total
1% Burns Market $ 2,787,261 $ 10,932,200 $ 21,883,131 $ 3,407,463 $ 86,211,948 $ 125,222,002
Wounds $ 6,503,609 $ 25,508,466 $ 51,060,638 $ 7,950,747 $ 201,161,211 $ 292,184,671
Reconstructive $ 492,416 $ 1,413,898 $ 5,995,978 $ 215,806 $ 22,288,009 $ 30,406,107
Population and GDP data from CIA World factbook 2008 figures
Health care expenditure statistics from World Health Organization
Total Expenditure on Health as % of GDP (2005)**
GDP (2008, official exchange rate)Total Health Expenditure
Assumed Growth in Markets after first 5 years
59 05/03/2023 14:09:23
LICENSING AGREEMENT COMPARISONS
Lisencee Licensor Products Date Sales Milestones Total Note Royaltee Fees
Schering Plough Santarus 3/11/2008 $ 15,000,000 $ 27,500,000 $ 37,500,000 $ 80,000,000 $ 1,600,000,000 1 5.00%
Sanofi-Aventis AEterna Zentaris 3/9/2009 $ 30,000,000 $135,000,000 $ 165,000,000 $ 3,700,000,000 2 4.46%
Par Pharmaceuticals Paddock Laboratories the acquisition of Testosterone Gel 9/13/2006 $ 6,000,000 $ 6,000,000 $ 250,000,000 3 2.40%
Cases Where Numerical Royaltee Fees Were Provided:
6/9/2009
Smart Personalized Medicine Health Discover Corp 8/29/2008
Supergen Inc J&J's Cilag GmbH 7/6/2006
*Data from Capital IQ unless noted otherwise1 Data from Capital IQ, market estimate was for 2007 from A.C. Neilsen, a marketeing research firm, as well as company estimates2 Market estimates from report: "Benign Prostatic Hyperplasia - Novel Therapeutics and Reformulations will Drive Market Growth" available at ResearchandMarkets.com3 Market Value is the expected revenues from the product as reported when the deal was announced
Upfront License Fee
Potential Regulatory Milestones
Value of Drug Market
% Paid relative to market size
Schering-Plough is seeking FDA approval to sell omeprazole/sodium
bicarbonate product in a 20 mg dosage strength of omeprazole in the U.S. over-the-counter (OTC) heartburn
market
low double digit royalty, In turn, Santarus will be obligated to pay
royalties to the University of Missouri on net sales
a development, commercialization and licensing agreement with sanofi-
aventis for the development, registration and marketing of cetrorelix in benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH)
for the U.S. market.
"escalating double digit" royalties on future US sales
Valeant Pharmaceuticals International
Penwest Pharmaceutical Co, and Endo Pharmaceutical Co
allows Valeant to market OPANA ER, the extended release formulation of oxymorphone, in Canada, Australia
and New Zealand
Valeant has agreed to pay royalties ranging from 10% to 20% of net sales of the OPANA products in each of the
three countries, subject to royalty reductions upon patent expiry or
generic entry.to work to develop a superior breast cancer prognostic test using HDC's
support vector machine (SVM) technology
HDC will receive a 15% equity position in Smart Personalized Medicine, LLC based on up to a $5 million
initial investment from Smart Personalized Medicine, LLC investors
a per test royalty up to 7.5% based on Net Proceeds received from the
sale of the new breast cancer prognostic test.diseases relating to malfunctioning
blood-forming stem cells made by MGI
SuperGen will earn a royalty on worldwide net sales starting at 20%
and escalating to a maximum of 30%.
60 05/03/2023 14:09:23
DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW VALUATION
WACC Calculation2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Owners Equity $5,878,833 $12,948,667 $108,357,401 $286,906,628 $315,850,794 $333,386,662 $354,793,778 $380,089,378 $408,277,131 $437,298,992 Total Debt $500,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Total Capital $6,378,833 $12,948,667 $108,357,401 $286,906,628 $315,850,794 $333,386,662 $354,793,778 $380,089,378 $408,277,131 $437,298,992
Equity/Total Capital 0.921615760457764 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1Debt/Total Capital 0.078384239542236 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Cost of Equity- CAPM 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Risk Free Rate (20-Year Treasury) 4.47% 4.47% 4.47% 4.47% 4.47% 4.47% 4.47% 4.47% 4.47% 4.47%Beta 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0Risk Premium 25% 25% 20% 20% 20% 15% 15% 10% 10% 10%Cost of Equity- CAPM 29.5% 29.5% 24.5% 24.5% 24.5% 19.5% 19.5% 14.5% 14.5% 14.5%
Cost of DebtMilestone Payments Interest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018WACC 27.2% 29.5% 24.5% 24.5% 24.5% 19.5% 19.5% 14.5% 14.5% 14.5%
FCFF Calculation2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Net Income ($1,621,167) $7,069,833 $95,408,735 $178,549,227 $28,944,166 $17,535,868 $21,407,116 $25,295,600 $28,187,753 $29,021,861 Plus Non-Cash Charges Depreciation $6,000 $12,000 $18,000 $24,000 $30,000 $24,000 $18,000 $12,000 $6,000 $0 Amortization $266,667 $533,333 $533,333 $533,333 $533,333 $533,333 $533,333 $533,333 $533,333 $533,333 Less Change in Net Working Capital ($10,000) ($1,160,000) ($3,284,440) ($3,778,559) $4,475,020 ($135,251) ($252,353) ($240,458) ($195,456) ($118,861)FCFF ($1,358,500) $6,455,167 $92,675,628 $175,328,001 $33,982,519 $17,957,950 $21,706,096 $25,600,476 $28,531,631 $29,436,334
Value of FirmTerminal Value CalculationTerminal Growth Rate 3.0%Discount Rate 10.0%Terminal Value $12,615,572
PV of Cash Flows ($1,068,339) $3,920,918 $45,225,265 $68,738,837 $10,703,893 $4,734,609 $4,790,162 $4,935,428 $4,805,203 $4,330,890
Sum of PV of Cash Flows $151,116,866 PV of Terminal value $1,856,096Value of Firm $152,972,962
Net Working Capital is Assumed to Be 10.0%of Revenues
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PROBABILITY MATRIX
USA South Korea China Japan India Europe Value of Firm
0% $6,698,474 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $6,698,474 5% $7,191,043 $146,247 $572,511 $1,183,295 $174,798 $4,651,500 $13,919,394 10% $7,683,612 $292,494 $1,145,023 $2,366,589 $349,596 $9,303,000 $21,140,313 15% $8,176,181 $438,740 $1,717,534 $3,549,884 $524,393 $13,954,500 $28,361,233 20% $8,668,750 $584,987 $2,290,045 $4,733,179 $699,191 $18,606,001 $35,582,152 25% $9,161,319 $731,234 $2,862,557 $5,916,473 $873,989 $23,257,501 $42,803,072 30% $9,653,888 $877,481 $3,435,068 $7,099,768 $1,048,787 $27,909,001 $50,023,992 35% $10,146,457 $1,023,727 $4,007,579 $8,283,063 $1,223,585 $32,560,501 $57,244,911 40% $10,639,026 $1,169,974 $4,580,091 $9,466,357 $1,398,383 $37,212,001 $64,465,831 45% $11,131,595 $1,316,221 $5,152,602 $10,649,652 $1,573,180 $41,863,501 $71,686,751 50% $11,624,164 $1,462,468 $5,725,113 $11,832,946 $1,747,978 $46,515,001 $78,907,670 55% $12,116,732 $1,608,714 $6,297,624 $13,016,241 $1,922,776 $51,166,501 $86,128,590 60% $12,609,301 $1,754,961 $6,870,136 $14,199,536 $2,097,574 $55,818,002 $93,349,509 65% $13,101,870 $1,901,208 $7,442,647 $15,382,830 $2,272,372 $60,469,502 $100,570,429 70% $13,594,439 $2,047,455 $8,015,158 $16,566,125 $2,447,169 $65,121,002 $107,791,349 75% $14,087,008 $2,193,701 $8,587,670 $17,749,420 $2,621,967 $69,772,502 $115,012,268 80% $14,579,577 $2,339,948 $9,160,181 $18,932,714 $2,796,765 $74,424,002 $122,233,188 85% $15,072,146 $2,486,195 $9,732,692 $20,116,009 $2,971,563 $79,075,502 $129,454,107 90% $15,564,715 $2,632,442 $10,305,204 $21,299,304 $3,146,361 $83,727,002 $136,675,027 95% $16,057,284 $2,778,688 $10,877,715 $22,482,598 $3,321,159 $88,378,502 $143,895,947
100% $16,549,853 $2,924,935 $11,450,226 $23,665,893 $3,495,956 $93,030,003 $151,116,866
Values of geographic business segments calculated excluding terminal value
Probability of Skin Graft Approval
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COMPARATIVE COMPANY ANALYSIS
Copmarative Company Analysis Trading MultiplesCollagen Sales
(Data Presented in Millions of $US)
Company Name Market Cap TEV P/BV P/Diluted EPS TEV/EBITDA Est. CY P/EPS Est. CY P/EPS Est. CY+1Biosyntech Inc. (TSX:BSY) $ 28.9 $ 33.4 NM NM 17.3x NM NM NMCytori Therapeutics, Inc. (NasdaqGM:CYTX) $ 121.0 $ 112.6 NM NM 8.9x NA NM NMIntegra LifeSciences Holdings Corp. (NasdaqGS:IART) $ 748.4 $ 1,094.1 2.0x 21.5x 1.6x 7.4x 12.6x 10.9xOrthovita Inc. (NasdaqGM:VITA) $ 381.9 $ 388.0 8.5x NM 4.1x NM NM 58.4xOsteotech Inc. (NasdaqGM:OSTE) $ 78.1 $ 78.3 1.0x NM 0.8x NA NM 86.8x
Implied Multiples for McCoy (2010 data) $ 152,972,962.0 $ 152,972,962.0 8.1x NA 2.6x 13.4x NA NA
High 8.5x 21.5x 17.3x 7.4x 12.6x 86.8xLow 1.0x 21.5x 0.8x 7.4x 12.6x 10.9xMean 3.8x 21.5x 6.5x 7.4x 12.6x 52.0xMedian 2.0x 21.5x 4.1x 7.4x 12.6x 58.4x
Note: Data Provided by Capital IQ, Reuters, Publicly Available SEC FilingsNote: Data as of: 06/22/09
Comparative Company Analysis Operating StatisticsCollagen Sales
(Data Presented in Millions of $US)
Company Name Return on Assets Return on Equity Return on Capital Est. LT Growth RateBiosyntech Inc. (TSX:BSY) -1835.4 -3174.6 -3331.9 -55.8 -2561.6 -71.4 NA -18.3 39.2Cytori Therapeutics, Inc. (NasdaqGM:CYTX) 35.8 -396.4 -418.8 -73.7 NM NM NA 16.8 12.1Integra LifeSciences Holdings Corp. (NasdaqGS:IART) 62.6 17.1 12.4 5.2 10.7 5.8 15.6 13.0 31.6Orthovita Inc. (NasdaqGM:VITA) 66.3 -8.4 -11.9 -4.0 -16.0 -4.5 30.0 35.0 29.9Osteotech Inc. (NasdaqGM:OSTE) 53.0 8.2 2.5 0.2 -0.5 0.3 NA -6.2 1.9
Implied Multiples for McCoy (2010 data) 36.8 19.5 18.6 37.6 54.6 g= b(ROA + D/E(ROA-i(1-t))
High 66.3 17.1 12.4 5.2 10.7 5.8 30.0 35.0 39.2Low -1835.4 -3174.6 -3331.9 -73.7 -2561.6 -71.4 15.6 -18.3 1.9Mean -323.5 -710.8 -749.6 -25.6 -641.9 -17.4 22.8 8.1 22.9Medium 53.0 -8.4 -11.9 -4.0 -8.3 -2.1 22.8 13.0 29.9
Note: Data Provided by Capital IQ, Reuters, Publicly Available SEC FilingsNote: Data as of: 06/22/09
M&A Comparative Analysis Trading MultiplesCollagen Sales
(Data Presented in Millions of $US)
Acquirer Target Closed Date Total Transaction Size Implied Equity Value Implied EV Implied EV/Revenues Implied EV/EBITDAIntegra Lifesciences Holding Corp (NasdaqGS: IART) Theken Spine, LLC 8/1/2008 $ 185.9 $ 46.8 15.2x 6.9x $ 185.7 5.3x 30.3xIntegra Lifesciences Holding Corp (NasdaqGS: IART) IsoTis, Inc. 10/29/2007 $ 69.8 51.47 NM 1.4x $ 65.3 1.5x NM
High $ 185.9 51.5x 15.2x 6.9x $ 185.7 5.3x 30.3xLow $ 185.9 51.5x 15.2x 6.9x $ 185.7 5.3x 30.3xMean $ 185.9 51.5x 15.2x 6.9x $ 185.7 5.3x 30.3xMedian $ 185.9 51.5x 15.2x 6.9x $ 185.7 5.3x 30.3x
Note: Data Provided by Capital IQ, Reuters, Publicly Available SEC FilingsNote: Data as of: 06/22/09
TEV/Total Rev Est. CY
LastFiscal Yr
GrossMargin (%)
LastFiscal YrEBITDA
Margin (%)
LastFiscal Yr
EBITMargin (%)
1 Yr Total Rev Growth
3 Yr Total Rev Growth
Implied Equity Value/ LTM NI
Implied Equity Value/ BV
63 05/03/2023 14:09:23
COMPARATIVE COMPANY ANALYSIS
Copmarative Company Analysis Trading MultiplesCell Generation
(Data Presented in Millions of $US)
Company Name Market Cap TEV P/BV P/Diluted EPS TEV/EBITDA Est. CY P/EPS Est. CY P/EPS Est. CY+1Genzyme Corp. (NasdaqGS:GENZ) $ 14,788.5 $ 14,215.5 2.0x 32.7x 2.9x 7.4x 16.6x 12.2xIntercytex Group Plc (AIM:ICX) $ 18.3 $ 10.7 1.4x NM 9.3x NM NM NMRTI Biologics, Inc. (NasdaqGM:RTIX) $ 232.2 $ 228.0 0.8x NM 1.4x 12.5x 40.0x 22.2x
High 2.0x 32.7x 9.3x 12.5x 40.0x 22.2xLow 0.8x 32.7x 1.4x 7.4x 16.6x 12.2xMean 1.4x 32.7x 4.5x 10.0x 28.3x 17.2xMedian 1.4x 32.7x 2.9x 10.0x 28.3x 17.2x
Note: Data Provided by Capital IQ, Reuters, Publicly Available SEC FilingsNote: Data as of: 06/22/09
Comparative Company Analysis Operating StatisticsCell Generation
(Data Presented in Millions of $US)
Company Name Return on Assets Return on Equity Return on Capital Est. LT Growth RateGenzyme Corp. (NasdaqGS:GENZ) 75.1 20.8 12.7 4.7 6.6 5.4 15.5 22.1 18.0Intercytex Group Plc (AIM:ICX) 5.9 -697.8 -69882.4 -60.2 -103.7 -71.8 NA NA NARTI Biologics, Inc. (NasdaqGM:RTIX) 46.9 9.9 4.4 1.1 -30.1 1.2 52.2 20.0 25.5
High 75.1 20.8 12.7 4.7 6.6 5.4 52.2 22.1 25.5Low 5.9 -697.8 -69882.4 -60.2 -103.7 -71.8 15.5 20.0 18.0Mean 42.6 -222.4 -23288.4 -18.2 -42.4 -21.7 33.8 21.1 21.7Median 46.9 9.9 4.4 1.1 -30.1 1.2 33.8 21.1 21.7
Note: Data Provided by Capital IQ, Reuters, Publicly Available SEC FilingsNote: Data as of: 06/22/09
TEV/Total Rev Est. CY
LastFiscal Yr
GrossMargin (%)
LastFiscal YrEBITDA
Margin (%)
LastFiscal Yr
EBITMargin (%)
1 Yr Total Rev Growth
3 Yr Total Rev Growth