CASE STUDY: BOSNIA

Yunzhou NamPeter Brüesch

Outline1. Introduction

Historical Background2. Bosnian Case

Key Events Failures/Lessons Drawn

3. Conclusion Significance of Case Study Bosnia Today Wheeler Framework

Historical Background Bosnia as republic of Yugoslavia Ethnic tensions between Bosnian

Muslims, Orthodox Serbs and Catholic Croats

Problem: Regional Ethnic majority (Serbs) are local ethnic minority (Bosnian Serbs)

Josip Broz “Tito“ Leader of Resistance

movement in Yugoslavia during WWII

President till death in 1980

Promoted a Yugoslavian nationality

Granted rights and autonomy to republics and provinces

Slobodan Milosevic President of

Yugoslavia after 1989

Nationalistic, promoted idea of “Greater Serbia“. Annex territories with

Serbian population to Serbia

Depicted Serbia as being threatened by outside forces

Croatia and Slovenia (Unilateral) declaration of independence

Croatia and Slovenia Croatia: 600,000 Serbs

Serb ‘hysteria’ Summer 1991: JNA military campaign in

Krajina

Date Key Event UNSC Resolution1991.09.25

#713 (Arms embargo)

1992.01 HRV and SVN – International recognition of sovereignties

1992.02.21

#743 (UNPROFOR)

1992.04.05

Siege of Sarajevo

1992.04.06

International recognition of Bosnian sovereignty

1992.08.13

#770 (Chapter VII)

1993.03.31

#816 (No-fly zone)

1993.04.16

#819 (First safe area)

1994.02.09

Authorization of offensive airstrikes by NATO

1995.07.11

Srebrenica Massacre

1995.08.30

Operation Deliberate Force (airstrikes against Bosnian Serb positions)

1995.12.14

Dayton Peace Agreement

Step 1: Do Nothing July 1991

WEU majority: “send force to impose peace” British hesitation: “use of force will escalate

war”

Alternatives: Tweak conflict into ‘interstate’ war Pledge to arm against JNA Threat to employ air strikes

Step 2: Dismiss Alternatives

Recognition of Croat sovereignty Pandora’s box of secessionist movements

Employment of force Constitutes infringement of sovereignty

Air strikes – what if unsuccessful?

Step 3: Arms Embargo September 1991 – Resolution 713

Contributing to ‘international peace and security’

Sidestepped the sovereignty issue A hindrance in later stages

Step 4: By Hook or by Crook

January 1992 Croatia and Slovenia recognized as

independent Legal dilemma Uti possidetis juris

Carefully skewed to justify the argument

Step 5: Upping the Ante

Western governments – too little, too late

Serb forces Masses (Muslim) GovtReferendum

Boycotted referendum

Voted for independence

Declared referendum unconstitutional, proclaimed existence of Bosnian Serb republic

Made preparations for war overplayed

Opened fire, fighting spread

Demanded resignation of Government

Way out (1) August 1992

Resolution 770 Chapter VII of UN Charter First time the use of force had been authorized

UNPROFOR II Strictly self-defence Saved hundreds of thousands from starvation

Ground troops vs Air strikes

Way out (2) Resolutions

#819: Safe area set up in Srebrenica #824: More safe areas #836: Close air support for UNPROFOR

personnel

April 1994 NATO airstrikes – the only option available “inflicted serious damage on the Bosnian Serb

war machine”

“The Last Stand” Split Agreement

Operation Storm

Srebrenica Massacre Operation Deliberate Force

Dayton Peace Agreement

Lessons Drawn

1. Lack of resolution

2. Misperceptions

3. Other failures

Lesson: Lack of Resolution Importance of preventative deployment

of forces Whether or not to deploy ground troops Safe havens set up too late

Whether or not to lift arms Embargo

Possible consequence of exploitation by aggressor

Lesson: Misperceptions Airstrikes – significant but not decisive

Misread acts of aggression as civil war

Failures Insufficient troops to demilitarize safe

areas 3,500 instead of the required 32,000

Scale of airstrikes > Authority given by #836

Srebrenica Massacre

On a positive note… Merits of UNPROFOR

Efforts to obtain legality

Significance of case study From Hesitancy and non-action over UNSC

Resolutions and humanitarian aid to extensive bombing campaign Evolution of humanitarian intervention within

case study Although slowly, action stepped up and the

intervention was seen through. (in contrast to Somalia and Rwanda)

Air strikes perceived as crucial means to “success“ of campaign.

First Resolution with all necessary means provided on humanitarian grounds

Bosnia Today Independent state of Bosnia and Herzegovina Democracy with 3 presidents (Bosnian, Serb,

Croat) that rotate the presidency Politics still dominated by nationalistic

rhetoric and ethnic divide not overcome. Many Serbs don’t recognize war crimes. Economically recovering thanks to large

investments from Europe. Monitored by EUFOR Althea Key question: Bosnia and Herzegovina

sustainable as a state with tree nationalities?

PPP GDP per capita

International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia

Slobodan MilosevicOn trial from 2002-06Died in custody in 2006

Ratko MladicCaptured in 2011 and on trial

Radovan KaradzicOn trial since 2008

Wheeler CriteriaSupreme Humanitarian Emergency

Last Resort

Proportionality

Positive Humanitarian Outcome

Humanitarian Motives

Humanitarian Justifications

Legality

Selectivity

Proportionality- Not enough ground forces. Only 3500 instead of

the proposed 32000.- Safe areas were overrun and people massacred.

Mandate to use force in self-defense not proportional to actual threat.

+ Hundred thousands of people and more could be saved from starvation due to the impact of UNPROFOR

o Air campaign successful in destroying Serbian war machinery but exceeded its humanitarian purpose

Positive Humanitarian OutcomeShort term (rescue)

- Safe zones overrun and people massacred- In general, more could have been rescued by more

decisive force.+ People saved from starvation.

Long term- Politics still mostly marked by nationalistic rhetoric- Problem of Milosevic and nationalistic Serbia was not

solved at Dayton and thus conflict in Kosovo happened. + No resurgence of violence and economically recovering+ Compared to countries of our other case studies doing

BY FAR the best

Legality+ All necessary means obtained in UNSC Resolution- Air strikes went technically too far. Only allowed

in order to protect UN mission and safe zones.- Uti possidetis juris → ends lead to means

Thank you for your attention