NDA Programme MeetingWednesday 20th October 2010

Hilton London Euston Hotel, 17-18 Upper Woburn Place, Bloomsbury, WC1H 0HT

meeting 11.00Two CRPs: Science and Knowledge

Transfer :-MAP 2030 (Mike Murphy)

BRANDING!

Modelling Ageing Populations to 2030 (MAP2030)

Prepared for MAP2030 Final Conference, LSE 17th June 2010

Some Recent Initiatives

Royal Commission on Long-Term Care Wanless I & IIPensions CommissionFree personal care in ScotlandGreen Paper on LTCWhite Paper on LTCNew Government, 2010CSR 20th Oct 2010Dilnot long term care commission …

To produce high quality analysis to inform public debate and development of future long-term care and pensions policy up to 2030 by:

• projecting the numbers, disability status, family circumstances, income, savings and care needs of older people

• assessing the affordability and distribution of costs and benefits of combined policy options for pensions and long-term care

• accounting for links between care needs and economic resources in later life

MAP2030 Programme Objectives

MAP2030 Structure

Mortality trends & implications linkages

Methods

•an integrated programme of new statistical analysis and modelling

•building on pre-existing models

•sensitivity testing to key trends

•scenarios on key unknowns

The Applicants

Mike Murphy LSE & Raphael Wittenberg, Adelina Comas-Herrera, Linda Pickard, Derek King, Juliette Malley, PSSRUCarol Jagger & James Lindesay, Newcastle & LeicesterEmily Grundy, LSHTMRuth Hancock, East Anglia & EssexChris Curry, PPIPlusDepartment for Work and PensionsThanks also to researchers who worked on the project

Future needs and resources of the older population: domains and interactions

• accumulation and distribution of income & assets• ability to meet care costs• how trends in mortality and morbidity will evolve & will

the extra years of life will be lived in good health?• the consequences of family change for the availability

of informal care & social participation• availability and need for informal & formal care• how these domains:

– are inter-related– differ between socio-economic and income groups– influence, and are influenced by policy

MAP2030 Work package 1: Mortality trends and their implications

Outputs:

Forecasts & cross-national analyses of mortality trends as inputs to other Work Packages

Elucidate processes by which cohort effects may work through particular diseases by analysing the role of cause-specific mortality

"http://webstaging.lse.ac.uk/collections/MAP2030/"

Future needs and resources of the older population: domains and interactions

• Past is “nice to know”

• Future is “need to know”

In the next 25 years (2006-2031)

Total UK expected population growth approx 10.3 million

1.2 million more children (0-19)

3.0 million more ‘working age’ (20-64)

6.2 million more older people (65 & over)

– of which 2.8 million 80 & over

Based on Office for National Statistics 2008-based projections (http://www.gad.gov.uk/) – Note higher than EU

The first generation to live less than its parents?

“The life expectancy of some of today's children will be years shorter than their parents' if current trends of poor diet and lack of exercise continue, Yvette Cooper, the Public Health minister, will warn today.”

(Independent Thursday, 19 October 2000)

"The truth is that children born today could become part of the first generation in American history to live shorter lives than their parents ... "

(Bill Clinton The Times May 10, 2005)

“A Potential Decline in Life Expectancy in the United States in the 21st Century.”

(SJ Olshansky et al (2005). New England Journal of Medicine 352:1138-45)

Projections of population aged 85 & over in 2011, 2031 and 2041, alternative projection base years, England & Wales

Source: author's calculations based on official projections

0

500

1000

1500

2000

1972 1973 1976 1981 1985 1989 1994 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

Projection base year

(000s)

Males 2011

Females 2011

Males 2031

Females 2031

Males 2041

Females 2041

England & Wales standardised mortality rate annual smoothed improvement (%) 1960-2050 (2006-based principal projection)

Author's calculations based on WHO European Standard

Male cohort life expectancy at age 65, UK: "optimists" and "pessimists"

10

15

20

25

30

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Year reaches age 65

Years

Principal 2008-based

Olshansky?

Vaupel?

UK & E&W, based on 2008 projections & Pensions Commission

Wider kin: Estimated number of grandparents, England 1851-2011

Department of Health (2010) On the State of Public Health, 2009 Annual Report of the Chief Medical Officer, p.48.

Wider kin: Estimated number of grandparents by age in England, 2011

Department of Health (2010) On the State of Public Health, 2009 Annual Report of the Chief Medical Officer, p.49.

The ‘care gap’: difference between supply of intense intergenerational care & demand for care by disabled older people (000s), England 2005-2041

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2005 2007 2010 2012 2017 2022 2026 2031 2041

Numbers providing intenseinformal care to olderparents/-in-law at constantprobablities of providing care

Numbers providing intensecare if 2005 ratio ofreceivers: providers staysconstant

Pickard 2008a

User engagement

The Demographic Overview

Michael MurphyLondon School of Economics

Prepared for All Party Parliamentary Local Government Group Inquiry: Services for older

people, 5th June 2008

Mortality trends in Britain and future numbers of older people

Michael MurphyLondon School of Economics

Prepared for British Society for Population Studies Meeting Future needs and resource of the older population in Britain , 16th June 2008

Advisory input/ links with relevant bodies

The team have held discussions with the National Centre for Social Research to discuss the development of a module of questions asking about receipt of care. The team are currently developing a proposal with the National Centre for funding for this work with a view to developing questions to be included in ELSA and other surveys e.g. the Health & Social Care Information Centre’s proposed new health and social care, household surveys etc.

We were funded by DWP to take forward our comparative analyses of data on disability in different surveys. Consultation seminar hosted by James Purnell, Minister of State for Pensions Reform, 7th June 2007 (PPI)Submission to Department of Health Green Paper on the reform of adult social care. (Wittenberg R., Hancock R., Malley J., King

D., Comas-Herrera A., Pickard L. and Morciano M (2008) Paying for Long-Term Care: Potential Reforms to Funding Long-term Care – Free Personal Care, Disregard of Housing Assets and Wanless Patterns of Care) [date]

Ruth Hancock has participated in an advisory board for a Resolution Foundation study of long-term care, the report of which was published on 8th December.

Carol Jagger has been made a member of the Mortality Research Steering Group.Mike Murphy, Ruth Hancock and Linda Pickard presented research from the MAP2030 project to the Chair of the All Party

Parliamentary Local Government Group Enquiry into Services for Older People (June 2008) and their contribution was acknowledged in the final LGiU report, Never Too Late for Living (July 2008).

Mike Murphy is a member of ONS Expert Group on population projections and adviser on marital status projections.Mike Murphy was a member of Board for Actuarial Standards Mortality Working Group.WP5 were approached by the Liberal Democrats to give advice on policies for financing long-term careCarol Jagger and Raphael Wittenberg gave oral evidence to the House of Commons Health Committee for the inquiry on Social

Care. Two sets of written evidence were submitted by members of WP5 to the House of Commons Health Committee for the inquiry on Social Care. Evidence on informal care was submitted by Linda Pickard and has now been published by the Health Committee. Evidence on paying for long-term care was written by Ruth Hancock and colleagues and is due to be published by the Health Committee early in 2010 (see above, under ‘Publications’ for further details of both sets of evidence).

Ruth Hancock was consulted by Norman Lamb MP over long-term care financing policy (22 Dec 2009)Linda Pickard was consulted on informal care policy by the Québec Ministry for Families and the Elderly (16 October 2009)Michael Murphy was consulted by Law Commission about kin networks in BritainMichael Murphy was a member of an expert group briefing the Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne, 21st July 2010

about changes to the long-term care system.Mike Murphy estimated numbers of grandparents in England since the `850s which formed part of the 2010 Chief Medical

Officer’s Report.

Advisory input/ links with relevant bodies - examples

funded by DWP to take forward our comparative analyses of data on disability in different surveys.

consultation seminar hosted by James Purnell, Minister of State for Pensions Reform, 7th June 2007 (PPI)

presented research from the MAP2030 project to the Chair of the All Party Parliamentary Local Government Group Enquiry into Services for Older People (June 2008) and their contribution was acknowledged in the final LGiU report, Never Too Late for Living (July 2008).

WP5 gave advice on policies for financing long-term care to Liberal Democrats

oral evidence to the House of Commons Health Committee for the inquiry on Social Care.

Michael Murphy was a member of an expert group briefing the Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne, 21st July 2010 about changes to the long-term care system.

estimated numbers of grandparents in England since the 1850s which formed part of the 2010 Chief Medical Officer’s Report.

Seminars - examples

We have held a series of seminars throughout 2009 covering different aspects of the MAP2030 programme.

May 2009 seminar on "The future of family support for older people" held at LSE. This was held as a joint conference with the European Association for Population Studies Working Group on Demographic Change and support of older people workshop on "The Future of Family Support for Older People A total of 24 papers were presented and over 60 people - from 16 different countries- participated.