POLITICAL

ENVIRONMENTIN RUSSIA

ILYA PONOMAREV, STATE DUMA (S.-D.), LEFT FRONT

MOVEMENT

SITUATION IN BRIEFBONAPARTIST POLITICAL REGIME

POPULIST

POWERED BY LARGE BUSINESSES AND SILOVIKI – SECURITY AND POLICE FORCES

VISIBLY STRONG – IMAGE OF STABILITY, CONTRAST TO CHAOS OF 1990S

RISING SALARIES AND PENSIONSBUDGET CRISIS AT THE REGIONAL LEVEL

GROWING SPLIT BETWEEN CENTER AND REGIONS

STALLED ECONOMY (2013 GDP GROWTH 1.8%, INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION -0.5%)

68% OF BUSINESS PEOPLE EXPECT CRISIS IN THE NEAR FUTURE

CONTINUED ALIENATION OF THE MIDDLE CLASS

UNMANAGEABLE CORRUPTION

DEFICIT OF QUALITY GOVERNMENT MANAGEMENT

NATIONALIZATION OF THE ELITES“GIVE EVERYTHING TO YOUR FRIENDS AND LAW TO YOUR ENEMIES”

POLITICAL FORCES IN RUSSIA

4 PARLIAMENTARY POLITICAL PARTIESRULING PARTY (51%) – UNITED RUSSIA. POLITICALLY CONSERVATIVE, ECONOMICALLY NEOLIBERAL

MAIN OPPOSITION (20%) – COMMUNIST PARTY. POLITICALLY CONSERVATIVE, ECONOMICALLY LEFT

OPPOSITION – FAIR RUSSIA (SOCIAL-DEMOCRATIC). POLITICALLY SWINGS, ECONOMICALLY LEFT

POPULIST – LIBERAL-DEMOCRATIC. POLITICALLY ULTRA CONSERVATIVE, ECONOMICALLY SWINGS

MAJOR NON-PARLIAMENTARY PARTIESRPR-PARNAS (REPUBLICAN – PEOPLE’S FREEDOM PARTY) – NEOLIBERAL

NATIONAL-DEMOCRATIC PARTY – NATIONALISTS

YABLOKO – LIBERAL

CIVIL PLATFORM – NEOLIBERAL

CLOUD OF FAKE POLITICAL PARTIES

NAVALNY (PEOPLE’S ALLIANCE) – POPULIST, NATIONALIST, NEOLIBERAL

HISTORY OF THE PROTEST MOVEMENT

ANTIBUREACRATIC PROTEST OF “UNITED DEMOCRATS” 1986-91 :PROMOTION OF YELTSYN, NATIONAL LIBERATION MOVEMENTS IN SOVIET REPUBLICS, CRASH OF THE USSR

PROTEST AGAIN “SHOCK THERAPY” 1992-93 :SUPPRESSED BY MILITARY FORCES, SUPREME SOVIET SHOT BY TANKS, NEW CONSTITUTION

PROTEST AGAINST INDUSTRIAL CRISIS «RAILWAY WARS» 1997-99 INSPIRED AND USED TO REDISTRIBUTE ASSETS BY NEW RUSSIAN BUSINESSMEN

PROTEST AGAINST MONETIZATION OF PRIVILEGES 2005 SOCIAL SPENDING SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASES, «CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY» IS BEING FORMED

PROTEST AGAINST ELECTION FRAUD 2011-12 BEGINNING OF OPEN CLASH BETWEEN EMERGING MIDDLE CLASS AND THE CONSERVATIVES

MAJOR TENDENCIES

NEW WAVE EACH 6 YEARS

PROTEST IS INSPIRED BY A PARTICULAR EVENT, WHILE SOCIAL OR ECONOMIC CONDITIONS ARE JUST PREREQUISITE

EACH WAVE IS BEING USED BY A CERTAIN ELITE GROUP FOR ACHIEVING ITS OWN

AGENDA, QUITE FAR FROM THE PROTESTERS’ DEMANDS

CURRENT PROTEST ENVIRONMENT

FOUR TYPES OF PROTEST:

POLITICAL PROTEST (CAPITALS)

SOCIAL (MAJOR CITIES)

PROTEST AGAINST LOCAL PROBLEMS(SMALL TOWNS, RURAL AREAS, LABOR

UNIONS)

ETHNICAL PROTEST

SPECIFICS OF THE NEW PROTEST

ACTIVE FORMATION OF THE NEW POSTINDUSTRIAL CLASSTERMS «MIDDLE» OR «CREATIVE CLASS» ARE MISGUIDING

IN MOSCOW ~25-35% OF THE POPULATION, IN MAJOR CITIES ~5-10%

DOMINATED BY YOUNG, SUCCESSFUL AND FORMERLY APOLITICAL PEOPLE

WOKEN BY THE «SWAP» ON SEPTEMBER, 24TH 2011 AND THE FOLLOWING ELECTIONS

TEND TO BE NEOLIBERAL OR EVEN LIBERTARIANFUELED BY ANTIGOVERNMENT PROTEST – ANTI-CORRUPTION AND HUMAN RIGHTS

DOES NOT CREATE POLITICAL STRUCTURES

INFANTILE, CONSIDERS ITS OWN PROBLEMS UNIVERSAL

LITTLE INTEREST TO THE PROBLEMS OF «COMMON PEOPLE»

ACTIVELY CREATES VIRTUAL NETWORKS AND ANONYMOUS GROUPS

MAJOR OBJECTIVES

UNANIMOUSLY SUPPORTED DEMANDS:POLITICAL REFORM AND FREE ELECTIONS

FREEDOM OF SPEECH

FIGHT WITH THE CORRUPTION AND BUREAUCRACY

JUDICIAL REFORM AND RELEASE OF POLITICAL PRISONERS

DEMANDS SUPPORTED BY MAJORITY:CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM AND SHIFT TOWARDS PARLIAMENTARY REPUBLIC

DEMANDS OF THE LEFT:SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC REFORMS

CITY MOVEMENT POLITICAL STRUCTURE

INITIALLY COALITION OF 4 FACTIONS: NEOLIBERALS, LEFTISTS, NATIONALISTS AND “APOLITICAL” CIVIL GROUPS

IN MOSCOW IN 2012 - ~50% NEOLIBERALS, 35% LEFTISTS, 15% NATIONALISTSCAUTIOUS SUPPORT FROM TRADITIONAL PARTIES (FAIR RUSSIA, YABLOKO, COMMUNISTS, CIVIL PLATFORM)

AS PROTESTS BECAME MORE RADICAL, LEFTISTS GAINED SUPPORT, MAXIMUM IN MAY 2012

STREET RIOTS ON MAY 6TH, 2012

DURING MAY 2012 – OCCUPY MOSCOW MOVEMENT, DOMINATED BY LEFTISTS

FALL 2012 – “COORDINATION COUNCIL OF THE OPPOSITION” ESTABLISHEDQUASI-PARLIAMENT

DOMINATED BY NEOLIBERALS, LEFTISTS OPPOSED

SPLIT WITH TRADITIONAL PARTIES

“APOLITICAL” VOLUNTEERS MOVEMENT, WHICH GREW OUT OCCUPY MOVEMENT DURING FLOODING IN KRYMSK, ABSTAINED

END 2012 – BEGINNING OF REPRESSIONS, LEFT FRONT LEADERS ARRESTED

SUMMER 2013 – MAYORAL ELECTION CAMPAIGN IN MOSCOW, NETWORK-TYPE COALITION REFORMED INTO AUTHORITARIAN POPULIST MOVEMENT UNDER LEADERSHIP OF ALEXEY NAVALNY

NEW PROTEST VS“TRADITIONAL” POLITICAL

PARTIESTRADITIONAL PARTIES ARE DEPENDENT ON ELECTION RESULTS, WHILE NEW PROTEST MOVEMENT FUELS ELECTORAL SCEPTICISM

TURNOUT ON LOCAL ELECTIONS FELT TO 10-15%

CONSERVATIVES AND AUTHORITIES GAIN ADVANTAGE

TYPICAL VOTER TEND TO BE CONSERVATIVE AND LEFT-LEANINGCITY MOVEMENT WHICH PROTECTS PUSSY RIOT, LGBT RIGHTS, WITH LIBERTARIAN VIEWS AND RELATIVELY HIGH INCOME OF PARTICIPANTS ALIENATE PEOPLE

SEVERAL COUNTER-STRATEGIES WERE SUCCESSFULLY IMPLEMENTED BY KREMLIN:DUMA FACTIONS UNITED AROUND IDEAS WITH WIDE POPULAR APPEAL, BUT INACCEPTABLE FOR STREET OPPOSITION (FOREIGN ADOPTION ACT, LIMITATION OF INTERNET FREEDOM, “GAY PROPAGANDA” ACT)

LEADERS OF THE OPPOSITION COMPROMISED WITH FAKED CRIMINAL CASES AND CHARGES OF CONSPIRACY IN FAVOR OF FOREIGN NATIONS

MASSMEDIA HIGHLIGHTED AS MAIN DEMAND OF THE OPPOSITION CALL FOR POLITICAL REFORMS, WHICH IS LOW ON PEOPLE’S PRIORITY LIST

NONE OF TRADITIONAL PARTIES WANT TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH NEW PROTESTERS, WHICH INCREASES GAP BETWEEN POLITICIANS AND OPINION LEADERS EVEN MORE

FORECASTPROTEST TENDENCIES IN RUSSIA WILL GROW UNDER THE

SURFACE, VISIBLE ONLY IN MOSCOW

IN MOSCOW IN 2014 WILL BE VERY COMPETITIVE RACE FOR MOSCOW CITY COUNCIL, BUT OPPOSITION WILL NOT BE ABLE TO

CLAIM MAJORITY OF SEATS, BECAUSE OF INABILITY TO FORM COALITION

ECONOMIC STAGNATION AND GROWING BUDGET CRISIS CAN SPARKLE LOCAL CONFLICTS AND INSPIRE SEPARATIST AND ANTI-

MOSCOW TENDENCIES

AUTHORITIES WILL ATTEMPT TO INTEGRATE SOME OF VISIBLE PROTESTERS INTO THE SYSTEM (LIKE IN NY MEMBERS OF OCCUPY

MOVEMENT), BUT MOST LIKELY TOO LATE

KEY SUCCESS FACTOR FOR THE OPPOSITION WILL BE POSSIBILITY TO CLAIM VICTORIES ON REGIONAL AND MUNICIPAL LEVELS

CONCLUSIONSoption 1 – REVOLUTION

option 2 – step-by-step reform of the political system:1. Demonstration of good will and possibility of positive changes using

free and transparent elections: admission of new leaders to a real executive power at the regional and municipal levels, support of regional pluralism and real federalism within “one country – multiple

models” approach

2. Reform of traditional political parties

3. Support for network initiative of civil society: volunteers, anti-corruption initiative; abandoning creation of fake “pocket” movements

4. Fostering entrepreneurship, international exchange and joint projects, creation of safe ways of self-fulfillment of young generation

5. «Peace treaty»: amnesty to political prisoners and no more power plays and police actions on the streets, ensuring freedom of assembly