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  • 8/3/2019 Banking Result Updated

    1/18

    Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1

    Save for few PSU banks, pre-provisioning performance was moderate; divergencecontinued at the asset quality level: NIM trends were volatile for several of the PSUbanks due to corresponding volatility in their asset quality. However, excluding

    four of the worst-hit banks, for the rest of the PSU banks, pre-provisioning profits

    registered healthy growth of 18.2% yoy, similar to private banks and largely in-

    line with expectations. SBI continued to outperform at the operating level.

    Higher than estimated fresh slippages lead to upsurge in NPA levels as a whole

    for public sector banks. In spite of 18 out of 27 banks under coverage reportinglower provision coverage qoq, provisioning costs for PSU banks as a whole were

    still up by a significant 56.9% yoy, as against 12.8% yoy decline for private banks.

    Most PSU banks also registered 20-50% increase in restructuring qoq. Overall,

    earnings divergence remained stark, with private banks registering PBT growth of

    25.6% yoy, while public banks witnessed a decline of 4.8% yoy.

    Sector rerated; best stocks still undervalued: In light of the improving macro-economic scenario including especially the declining inflation as well as reducing

    global overhang, the sector has been rerated and we continue to have a positive

    view. However, in our view, so far the rally in has been in all the wrong stocks

    those stocks which have weak ROE and asset quality profiles have rallied the most

    and become relatively expensive in P/ABV terms. However, going forward, we

    believe the next leg of this rally is likely to be driven by banks that have the

    strongest growth outlook.

    Accordingly, our top picks in the sector are Axis Bank and Yes Bank, which in our

    view are trading at an unjustified discount to Sensex/peers. In case of Yes Bank,

    taking the challenges of building a retail deposit base head-on, the bank has

    doubled its branch network in recent quarters and the 7% savings rate is a smart

    customer acquisition strategy; hence, in our view, valuations at 2.2x FY2013E ABV

    provide a better risk-return trade-off than in the past. In case of Axis Bank, we

    believe asset quality concerns are over-discounted (driven by inadequate

    anecdotal information in our view), even though its relatively low yield on

    advances indicate moderate risk profile. We maintain Buy with a Target Price of

    `1,733.

    In PSU Banks, we believe for few stocks such as Andhra Bank, UCO bank, Central

    bank and Vijaya, valuations exceed the fundamentals, warranting a switch in our

    view to Dena Bank, United Bank, Bank of Maharashtra and Syndicate Bank,

    having relatively superior earnings quality outlook and cheaper valuations. Within

    the large cap PSU banks as well, we continue to prefer SBI and BOB and wouldrecommend a switch to these stocks from peers such as Bank of India.

    Banking indicatorsParticulars* (%)Latest yoy credit growth 16.5

    Latest yoy deposit growth 15.7

    Latest credit-to-deposit ratio 75.4

    Monthly Avg. LAF (` cr) 133,571

    Monthly Avg. 1 yr G-Sec yield 8.1

    Monthly Avg. 10 yr G-Sec yield 8.2

    Monthly Avg. 3M CP 10.3

    Monthly Avg. 12M CP 10.5Source: RBI, Bloomberg, Angel Research; Note*: Monthlyaverages are on preceding 30 day basis

    Policy ratesParticulars (%)Repo rate 8.5

    Reverse repo rate 7.5

    MSF rate 9.5

    Cash reserve ratio (CRR) 5.50

    Statutory liquidity ratio (SLR) 24.00

    Source: RBI, Angel Research

    Vaibhav Agrawal022 3935 7800 Ext: 6808

    [email protected]

    Varun Varma022 3935 7800 Ext: 6847

    [email protected]

    BankingSector rerated in line with improving macro

    Banking | 3QFY2012 Result Review

    February 22, 2012

  • 8/3/2019 Banking Result Updated

    2/18

    3QFY2012 Results Review | Banking

    February 22, 2012 2

    Net Interest Income registered moderate growthMovement in margins was divided during 3QFY2012 with 14 out of 27 banks

    under our coverage reporting improved margins sequentially. On the whole, PSU

    banks managed to give a reasonable 12.0% yoy growth on the Net income front(NII), aided by a strong performance from SBI. Excluding SBI, NII for the PSU

    banks increased by a relatively lower 6.6% yoy. Private Banks on the other hand

    registered a healthy 18.0% yoy growth in their NII income, driven both by

    sustained margins and healthy advances growth. The NII income for both PSU and

    private universe were closely in line with our estimates.

    NIM trends were volatile for several of the PSU banks due to corresponding

    volatility in their asset quality. Four of the PSU Banks that saw the maximum hit on

    their asset quality, viz., Central Bank, Vijaya Bank, IOB and IDBI, also registered

    large hits on their NIMs. In fact excluding these banks, for the rest of the PSU

    banks, pre-provisioning profits registered healthy growth of 18.2% yoy.

    This was in line with our expectations that operating performance is likely to be

    moderately healthy for both private and PSU banks in the near-term, with the

    divergence mainly being at the asset quality level. In our view, this is partly due to

    the fact that the largest banks such as SBI and ICICI Bank are more focused on

    managing profitability rather than balance sheet growth at present, easing the

    overall competitive scenario. In fact, SBI continued its impressive performance on

    the margin front, registering the highest qoq rise (32bp) within the PSU banks.

    Corporation Bank, United Bank and Dena Bank were amongst the other gainers.

    On the CASA front, private banks continued to lead the charge, with a few such as

    Axis Bank and Yes Bank registering strong growth. Especially, in case of Yes Bank

    the impact of the savings rate increase was visible albeit on a low base, with the

    bank registering 0.4% incremental market share in 3QFY2012, much higher than

    its overall market share of 0.1%. Other than that, broadly most banks registered

    low growth in CASA in line with the high interest rate environment.

    Exhibit 1:SBI leads in margin* performance during 3QFY12

    Source: Company, Angel Research, Note:*Domestic NIMs for SBI, BOB and BOI

    Exhibit 2:Pvt. Banks* and SBI outperform on NII front yoy

    Source: Company, Angel Research, Note:*For banks under our coverage

    (60.0)

    (50.0)

    (40.0)

    (30.0)

    (20.0)

    (10.0)

    -10.0

    20.0

    30.0

    40.0

    SBI

    CRPBK

    OBC

    UTDBK

    FEDBK

    BOI

    DENABK

    UNBK

    ICICIBK

    SIB

    UCOBK

    ALLBK

    BOM

    SYNBK

    HDFCBK

    ANDBK

    AXSB

    J&KBK

    PNB

    YESBK

    IDBI

    CANBK

    BOB

    INDBK

    IOB

    VIJAYA

    CENTBK

    16.8

    26.0

    12.0

    6.6

    6.8

    9.9

    4.5

    2.3

    0.0

    4.0

    8.0

    12.0

    16.0

    20.0

    24.0

    28.0

    Large Pvt Other Pvt PSU PSU (excl. SBI)

    % chg (yoy) % chg (qoq)

  • 8/3/2019 Banking Result Updated

    3/18

    3QFY2012 Results Review | Banking

    February 22, 2012 3

    Exhibit 3:Yield on advances for banks under our coverageBank YoA - 9MFY2012 YoA 9MFY2011 Chg (bps) Bank YoA - 9MFY2012 YoA 9MFY2011 Chg (bps)FEDBK 12.7 11.2 156 CNTBK 10.8 9.8 105

    YESBK 12.3 10.5 176 UCOBK 10.8 9.6 119 ANDBK 12.1 10.5167 IOB 10.8 9.2 157

    SIB 12.1 10.4 172 CANBK 10.7 9.1 158

    ALBK 11.8 10.0183 DENABK 10.6 9.5 114

    JKBK 11.6 10.5 109 UTDBK 10.5 9.5 98

    INDBK 11.5 10.0 151 CRPBK 10.2 9.1 116

    OBC 11.4 10.0 139 AXSB 10.2 8.6160

    IDBI 11.3 9.8 149 UNBK 10.1 9.0 107

    HDFCBK 11.2 10.2 100 SBI 9.8 8.6 122

    BOM 11.1 9.1 205 ICICIBK 9.2 8.2 105

    PNB 11.1 9.9 113 BOB 8.9 8.1 78

    SYNDBK 10.9 9.3 166 BOI 8.8 8.2 56

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Exhibit 4:CASA yearly growth rate trendsBank SA -3QFY12 SA -3QFY11 yoygrowth CA -3QFY12 CA -3QFY11 yoygrowth CASA -3QFY12 CASA -3QFY11 yoygrowth CASARatioYESBK 1,203 604 99.2 4,711 3,433 37.2 5,914 4,037 46.5 12.6

    IDBI 16,958 11,588 46.3 17,881 11,020 62.3 34,839 22,608 54.1 19.7

    J&KBK 14,974 11,760 27.3 4,621 4,415 4.7 19,595 16,175 21.1 40.2

    FEDBK 11,102 8,843 25.5 2,084 1,877 11.1 13,186 10,720 23.0 28.2

    SIB 6,058 4,966 22.0 1,222 1,079 13.3 7,280 6,045 20.4 21.5

    AXSB 47,297 39,13220.9 39,459 26,799 47.2 86,756 65,931 31.6 41.6

    BOB 71,842 61,540 16.7 22,981 20,456 12.3 94,823 81,996 15.6 34.1

    SBI 367,896 319,006 15.3 79,462 80,401 (1.2) 447,358 399,407 12.0 47.9

    HDFCBK 70,330 61,038 15.2 40,576 36,024 12.6 110,906 97,062 14.3 47.7

    ALLBK 36,936 32,29014.4 7,558 7,940 (4.8) 44,494 40,230 10.6 30.6

    PNB 102,705 89,860 14.3 23,260 22,945 1.4 125,965 112,805 11.7 35.3

    BOI 63,606 55,667 14.3 14,965 13,621 9.9 78,571 69,287 13.4 32.4

    ANDHBK 20,729 18,21213.8 5,532 5,216 6.1 26,261 23,428 12.1 26.6

    ICICIBK 73,498 64,577 13.8 40,039 31,667 26.4 113,537 96,244 18.0 43.6

    INDBK 29,489 25,972 13.5 6,430 6,358 1.1 35,919 32,330 11.1 30.2

    OBC 26,264 23,317 12.6 8,541 9,271 (7.9) 34,805 32,588 6.8 22.3

    BOM 22,145 19,743 12.2 6,528 5,493 18.8 28,673 25,236 13.6 41.0

    DENABK 18,293 16,398 11.6 5,554 5,008 10.9 23,848 21,406 11.4 34.9

    CORPBK 17,115 15,352 11.5 9,641 8,622 11.8 26,756 23,974 11.6 21.1

    CENTBK 51,004 46,084 10.7 10,076 10,823 (6.9) 61,080 56,907 7.3 32.5

    UTDBK 25,646 23,194 10.6 7,293 6,229 17.1 32,939 29,423 11.9 39.8

    SYNBK 32,994 29,992 10.0 11,020 11,281 (2.3) 44,014 41,273 6.6 30.8

    IOB 33,376 30,346 10.0 10,300 8,385 22.8 43,676 38,731 12.8 26.2

    UCOBK 25,741 23,616 9.0 6,190 4,272 44.9 31,931 27,888 14.5 22.3

    CANBK 63,361 58,558 8.2 11,096 17,938 (38.1) 74,457 76,496 (2.7) 23.6UNIONBK 48,500 46,416 4.5 18,310 15,690 16.7 66,810 62,106 7.6 32.5

    Source: Company, Angel Research

  • 8/3/2019 Banking Result Updated

    4/18

    3QFY2012 Results Review | Banking

    February 22, 2012 4

    Fee income growth driven by higher forex gains

    Fee income performance of banks under our coverage was healthy in 3QFY2012,

    registering growth of 20.3% yoy. However, compared to FY2011, most banks

    witnessed a decline in fee income to average assets in 9MFY2012 (average decline

    of ~8bp for our coverage universe).

    Private Banks, particularly large ones continued to fare better on the non-income

    front. While the commission and brokerage income for most banks remained

    subdued during 3QFY2012, higher forex income on account of rupee volatility led

    to strong forex related fee income for most banks.

    For 4QFY2012, most banks are expected to report higher treasury gains on

    account of declining bond yields. The G-sec 10Yr bond yields have eased off

    considerably (current 8.2% levels from ~9.0% levels registered in November 2011

    and 8.6% as of December 2011) following the moderating inflation levels.

    Exhibit 5:Other income (excl. treasury) performance for banks under our coverageBank 3QFY12 2QFY12 % chg (qoq) 3QFY2011 % chg (yoy) FY2011 1HFY2012 9MFY12 Diff. AXSB 1,312 1,207 8.7 1,013 29.5 2.02 1.87 1.88 (0.13)

    HDFCBK 1,502 1,213 23.8 1,159 29.6 1.77 1.60 1.69 (0.08)

    ICICIBK 1,957 1,820 7.5 1,728 13.2 1.74 1.65 1.68 (0.07)

    YESBK 211 214 (1.2) 162 30.8 1.40 1.25 1.28 (0.12)

    SBI 3,216 3,399 (5.4) 3,094 4.0 1.28 1.10 1.05 (0.23)

    PNB 8,591 7,839 9.6 7,532 14.1 0.98 0.87 0.85 (0.13)

    INDBK 2,629 3,213 (18.2) 2,217 18.6 0.93 0.82 0.80 (0.12)

    FEDBK 122 103 18.9 113 7.8 0.99 0.75 0.79 (0.20)

    CRPBK 3,301 2,755 19.8 2,321 42.3 0.87 0.75 0.78 (0.10)

    BOM 1,401 1,470 (4.7) 1,107 26.6 0.63 0.80 0.77 0.14

    IOB 3,761 3,781 (0.5) 3,284 14.5 0.72 0.77 0.77 0.05

    BOI 7,810 6,874 13.6 5,890 32.6 0.74 0.70 0.75 0.01

    ALLBK 3,274 3,022 8.3 2,376 37.8 0.89 0.71 0.74 (0.14)

    CANBK 6,221 6,793 (8.4) 5,076 22.5 0.82 0.74 0.73 (0.09)

    BOB 7,638 7,242 5.5 5,914 29.2 0.74 0.69 0.71 (0.03)

    UNBK 4,911 4,009 22.5 3,850 27.6 0.73 0.66 0.70 (0.03)

    DENABK 1,240 1,094 13.3 1,131 9.7 0.79 0.66 0.65 (0.15)IDBI 3,838 4,331 (11.4) 3,942 (2.6) 0.81 0.67 0.64 (0.16)

    ANDHBK 2,190 1,557 40.7 1,886 16.1 0.76 0.57 0.63 (0.13)

    OBC 2,588 2,591 (0.1) 2,000 29.4 0.59 0.61 0.61 0.01

    SYNBK 2,354 2,324 1.3 2,087 12.8 0.60 0.58 0.58 (0.02)

    SIB 54 42 30.0 40 35.7 0.54 0.45 0.50 (0.03)

    UTDBK 1,178 1,147 2.7 1,203 (2.1) 0.53 0.48 0.48 (0.04)

    J&KBK 648 627 3.3 597 8.6 0.59 0.46 0.47 (0.12)

    CENTBK 2,844 2,794 1.8 2,065 37.7 0.49 0.43 0.46 (0.02)

    UCOBK 1,983 1,618 22.6 1,972 0.6 0.55 0.44 0.45 (0.11)

    Source: Company, Angel Research

  • 8/3/2019 Banking Result Updated

    5/18

    3QFY2012 Results Review | Banking

    February 22, 2012 5

    Asset quality issues aggravate further

    NPA levels continue to rise

    Asset quality pressures for Public sector banks were expected to marginally abatepost the switchover to system based NPA recognition in 2QFY2012 as higher

    recoveries and upgrades (technical as well as cash) were expected to keep NPA

    levels under control. However, continued chunky NPAs from the corporate sector

    (aviation, telecom, mining, textiles, etc.) as well as from agriculture led to higher

    than estimated fresh slippages from these segments during 3QFY2012, leading to

    upsurge in NPA levels as a whole for public sector banks.

    Exhibit 6:Gross NPA trends (%) Pvt vs. PSU

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Exhibit 7:Net NPA trends (%) Pvt vs. PSU

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Exhibit 8:Gross NPA trend (%) for the banking industry

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Exhibit 9:Net NPA trend (%) for the banking industry

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    While most banks chose to let their provision coverage ratios deteriorate (18 out of

    27 banks under our coverage reported lower PCR qoq) to reduce the impact of

    higher slippages, provisioning costs for PSU banks as a whole were still up by a

    significant 56.9% yoy (59.8% yoy for Large PSUs and 52.2% yoy for medium PSUs).

    Private Banks, on the contrary which have sharply improved their asset quality over

    the past two years saw their provisioning costs decline by 12.8% yoy (down 13.1%

    yoy for New Pvt. and down 11.3% yoy for Old Pvt.). Consequently, while PSUbanks saw a 12.1% qoq and 12.7% qoq increase in their gross and net NPA

    levels, private banks only witnessed a 1.3% qoq and 4.1% qoq rise in their gross

    and net NPA levels, respectively.

    3.19 3.12 3.20

    3.06 2.89

    2.652.55

    2.452.41

    2.53 2.562.64 2.58 2.59 2.61

    2.71

    2.96

    3.29

    1.50

    1.80

    2.10

    2.40

    2.70

    3.00

    3.30

    3.60

    3QFY10

    4QFY10

    1QFY11

    2QFY11

    3QFY11

    4QFY11

    1QFY12

    2QFY12

    3QFY12

    Pvt Banks PSU Banks

    1.39

    1.151.05

    0.900.78

    0.62 0.62 0.59 0.60

    1.22 1.26 1.27

    1.21 1.181.26 1.28

    1.531.69

    0.30

    0.50

    0.70

    0.90

    1.10

    1.301.50

    1.70

    3QFY10

    4QFY10

    1QFY11

    2QFY11

    3QFY11

    4QFY11

    1QFY12

    2QFY12

    3QFY12

    Pvt Banks PSU Banks

    2.46

    2.362.43

    2.472.40

    2.27

    2.43

    2.73

    2.86

    2.10

    2.30

    2.50

    2.70

    2.90

    3.10

    3QFY

    10

    4QFY

    10

    1QFY

    11

    2QFY

    11

    3QFY

    11

    4QFY

    11

    1QFY

    12

    2QFY

    12

    3QFY

    12

    1.16

    1.09 1.08 1.07

    1.00 0.98

    1.04

    1.28

    1.36

    0.90

    1.00

    1.10

    1.20

    1.30

    1.40

    1.50

    3QFY

    10

    4QFY

    10

    1QFY

    11

    2QFY

    11

    3QFY

    11

    4QFY

    11

    1QFY

    12

    2QFY

    12

    3QFY

    12

  • 8/3/2019 Banking Result Updated

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    3QFY2012 Results Review | Banking

    February 22, 2012 6

    Exhibit 10:Aggregate gross NPA levels Pvt. BanksBank 3QFY12 2QFY12 3QFY11 %yoy %qoqPvt. New 14,674 14,670 14,574 0.7 0.0

    Pvt. Old 3,944 3,706 3,573 10.4 6.4Total 18,618 18,376 18,147 2.6 1.3

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Exhibit 11:Aggregate gross NPA levels PSU BanksBank 3QFY12 2QFY12 3QFY11 %yoy %qoqPsu Large 70,669 61,866 44,646 58.3 14.2

    Psu Med 31,333 29,148 22,066 42.0 7.5Total 102,001 91,014 66,712 52.9 12.1

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Exhibit 12:Aggregate net NPA levels Pvt. BanksBank 3QFY12 2QFY12 3QFY11 %yoy %qoqPvt. New 3,460 3,405 3,933 (12.0) 1.6

    Pvt. Old 1,134 1,010 938 20.8 12.3

    Total 4,594 4,414 4,871 (5.7) 4.1

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Exhibit 13:Aggregate net NPA levels PSU BanksBank 3QFY12 2QFY12 3QFY11 %yoy %qoqPsu Large 36,325 32,091 20,873 74.0 13.2

    Psu Med 16,166 14,502 9,554 69.2 11.5

    Total 52,491 46,593 30,427 72.5 12.7

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Exhibit 14:Asset quality continued to weaken during 3QFY2012Bank Slippages (%)3QFY012 Slippages (%)2QFY2012 change(bps) qoq (%)GNPA qoq (%)NNPA PCR3QFY12 (%) PCR2QFY12 (%) change(bps)Punjab National Bank 2.8 1.6 114 25.1 38.9 70.0 75.1 (5.1)

    Federal Bank 4.1 3.3 81 9.1 24.5 82.1 84.3 (2.2)

    IDBI Bank 3.1 2.4 79 19.3 25.2 69.1 70.1 (1.0)

    Central Bank 4.5 3.8 68 28.2 52.1 48.1 56.8 (8.7)

    Bank of Baroda 1.7 1.0 65 14.5 14.5 80.5 82.0 (1.5)

    Bank of Maharashtra 1.1 0.8 36 (4.5) (4.4) 87.0 86.0 1.0

    Allahabad Bank 2.5 2.2 32 10.0 19.9 78.0 79.6 (1.6)

    ICICI Bank 1.6 1.5 17 (3.0) (6.2) 78.9 78.2 0.7

    Dena Bank 1.5 1.4 16 6.6 6.7 76.6 77.1 (0.6)

    South Ind. Bank 0.7 0.5 14 1.6 (0.3) 75.2 74.7 0.5

    Axis Bank 1.5 1.411 9.8 24.4 75.3 77.7 (2.4)

    UCO Bank 2.2 2.1 10 4.3 5.4 51.2 52.0 (0.8)

    State Bank of India 4.3 4.2 8 18.1 16.6 62.5 63.5 (1.0)

    J&K Bank 0.7 0.8 (2) 0.6 (24.3) 94.1 92.0 2.1

    Indian Bank 1.6 2.0 (46) 13.6 16.7 76.5 79.4 (2.8)

    Corporation Bank 1.7 2.4 (63) 15.7 18.8 62.9 64.7 (1.9)

    Canara Bank 1.6 2.3 (70) 5.4 4.8 67.9 68.6 (0.8)

    Indian Overseas Bank 2.5 3.6 (111) 1.9 6.3 71.7 71.8 (0.1)Syndicate Bank 1.9 3.6 (176) (1.8) (5.6) 78.5 78.5 -

    United Bank 2.7 4.6 (193) 1.6 (2.0) 66.5 65.0 1.5

    Union Bank 1.5 4.8 (332) 1.4 (2.7) 63.1 60.5 2.6

    Oriental Bank 2.9 6.3 (336) 3.9 4.2 63.3 63.8 (0.5)

    Andhra Bank 2.1 6.1(399) (5.2) (13.2) 65.4 61.7 3.7

    Bank of India 1.0 5.3 (432) (2.5) (3.6) 60.9 59.1 1.7

    Source: Company, Angel Research

  • 8/3/2019 Banking Result Updated

    7/18

    3QFY2012 Results Review | Banking

    February 22, 2012 7

    Substantial restructuring; NPV loss only in few cases

    Almost all banks resorted to higher restructuring during 3QFY2012 with loans to

    SEBs and GTL being the primary contributors. Within PSU banks, BOM (up 55.0%

    qoq) and Central bank (up 50.5% qoq) witnessed highest sequential rises in their

    restructured books. Banks with exposure to GTL also had to take NPV hits in their

    P&L (ranging from 10%-20% of the total loan advances) during 3QFY2012,

    denting their bottom-line.

    The CDR cases that were approved during 3QFY2012 stand at ~`20,000cr and

    with restructuring of Air India and other SEBs also likely to be approved soon, the

    restructuring books of banks are expected to fatten further in the coming few

    quarters. That said, while loans to Air India and state power utilities will lead to

    higher standard provisioning (2.0% instead of 0.4%), we do not expect material

    NPV losses or chances of slippages from these accounts.

    Exhibit 15:Restructuring book (in `cr) as of 3QFY2012Bank 3QFY12 2QFY12 Ch.qoq (%) Advances (` cr) % of advancesBOM 3,100 2,000 55.0 49,872 6.2

    CENTBK 9,880 6,566 50.5 133,317 7.4

    OBC 6,086 4,119 47.7 110,698 5.5

    IOB 10,082 7,179 40.4 132,549 7.6

    UNBK 8,643 6,601 30.9 156,202 5.5

    ANDHBK 3,676 2,810 30.8 79,169 4.6

    ALLBK 3,823 2,941 30.0 100,448 3.8

    BOB 9,945 7,829 27.0 260,661 3.8BOI 13,674 11,115 23.0 230,355 5.9

    ICICIBK 3,070 2,501 22.8 246,157 1.2

    CRPBK 4,539 3,798 19.5 92,378 4.9

    UTDBK 2,255 1,995 13.0 59,100 3.8

    PNB 16,888 14,995 12.6 262,605 6.4

    CANBK 9,555 8,519 12.2 219,253 4.4

    AXSB 2,701 2,410 12.1 148,739 1.8

    INDBK 5,573 5,126 8.7 87,337 6.4

    IDBI 9,522 8,860 7.5 156,217 6.1

    SBI 37,610 35,422 6.2 846,266 4.4

    UCOBK 7,100 6,790 4.6 105,919 6.7

    HDFCBK 777 754 3.1 194,303 0.4

    YESBK 176 176 0.1 35,868 0.5

    SYNBK 1,943 2,171 (10.5) 114,817 1.7

    Source: Company, Angel Research

  • 8/3/2019 Banking Result Updated

    8/18

    3QFY2012 Results Review | Banking

    February 22, 2012 8

    PSU banks disappoint on earnings, Private banks continue

    impressive track record

    On PBT basis, private banks managed to grow by 25.6% yoy, while public banks

    witnessed a decline of 4.8% yoy. Tax benefits accruing to most PSU banks aided

    PAT numbers to an extent, with net PAT growing by 0.4%. In case of private banks

    up to 3QFY2012, not just the new private banks but also the older private banks

    such as South Indian Bank and Federal Bank, amongst others, continued to

    register healthy earnings growth; however, going forward these two banks are

    likely to experience headwinds from the substantial increase in NRE FD rates.

    In case of PSU banks, including five of the PSU banks with the worst asset quality

    surprise (Union Bank, Central Bank, Vijaya Bank, IOB and IDBI), ex-SBI earnings

    growth registered an 4.2% yoy decline, which was almost 4% below our estimates.

    Exhibit 16:Large PSU P&LParameter 3QFY12 2QFY12 % chg(qoq) 3QFY11 % chg(yoy)NII 24,484 23,090 6.0 21,431 14.2

    Other Income 7,754 7,701 0.7 7,014 10.6

    Operating Profit 32,239 30,791 4.7 28,444 13.3

    Operating Expenses 13,420 13,293 1.0 12,181 10.2

    Pre provision profit 18,819 17,497 7.6 16,263 15.7

    Provisions &Contingencies

    7,633 7,230 5.6 4,777 59.8

    PBT 11,185 10,267 8.9 11,486 (2.6)

    Tax 3,284 2,874 14.2 3,707 (11.4)

    Net Profit 7,902 7,393 6.9 7,779 1.6

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Exhibit 17:Mid PSU P&LParameter 3QFY12 2QFY12 % chg(qoq) 3QFY11 % chg(yoy)NII 13,449 13,200 1.9 12,436

    Other Income 3,688 3,406 8.3 2,897 27.3

    Operating Profit 17,137 16,606 3.2 15,333 11.8

    Operating Expenses 7,430 7,235 2.7 6,647 11.8

    Pre provision profit 9,706 9,370 3.6 8,685 11.8

    Provisions &Contingencies

    4,514 4,352 3.7 2,966 52.2

    PBT 5,192 5,018 3.5 5,719 (9.2)

    Tax 1,177 1,202 (2.1) 1,634 (28.0)

    Net Profit 4,015 3,817 5.2 4,085 (1.7)

    Source: Company, Angel ResearchExhibit 18:New Pvt P&LParameter 3QFY12 2QFY12 % chg(qoq) 3QFY11 % chg(yoy)NII 9,478 8,868 6.9 8,045 17.8

    Other Income 5,500 4,852 13.4 4,581 20.1

    Operating Profit 14,978 13,720 9.2 12,626 18.6

    Operating Expenses 6,662 6,366 4.6 5,636 18.2Pre provision profit 8,316 7,354 13.1 6,991 19.0

    Provisions &Contingencies

    1,189 1,173 1.3 1,368 (13.1)

    PBT 7,127 6,181 15.3 5,623 26.8

    Tax 2,131 1,870 14.0 1,674 27.3

    Net Profit 4,996 4,311 15.9 3,949 26.5

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Exhibit 19:Old Pvt P&LParameter 3QFY12 2QFY12 % chg(qoq) 3QFY11 % chg(yoy)NII 1,883 1,779 5.9 1,587 18.7

    Other Income 681 636 7.2 593 14.8

    Operating Profit 2,564 2,414 6.2 2,180 17.6

    Operating Expenses 1,322 1,238 6.8 1,042 26.9Pre provision profit 1,242 1,176 5.6 1,138 9.1

    Provisions &Contingencies

    297 210 41.3 335 (11.3)

    PBT 945 966 (2.2) 803 17.6

    Tax 245 286 (14.2) 249 (1.7)

    Net Profit 700 680 2.9 554 26.3

    Source: Company, Angel Research

  • 8/3/2019 Banking Result Updated

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    3QFY2012 Results Review | Banking

    February 22, 2012 9

    Exhibit 20:Advances growth (%)Banks-Type 3QFY12 2QFY12 % chg(qoq) 3QFY11 % chg(qoq)Large PSU 2,131,559 2,036,842 4.7 1,819,346 17.2

    Mid PSU 1,199,810 1,144,603 4.8 1,001,110 19.8

    New Pvt 697,265 665,636 4.8 575,856 21.1

    Old Pvt 161,210 156,091 3.3 129,279 24.7

    Grand Total 4,189,844 4,003,173 4.7 3,525,591 18.8

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Exhibit 21:Deposits growth (%)Banks-Type 3QFY12 2QFY12 % chg(qoq) 3QFY11 % chg(qoq)Large PSU 2,711,836 2,625,803 3.3 2,302,281 17.8

    Mid PSU 1,638,834 1,584,203 3.4 1,366,367 19.9

    New Pvt 827,662 789,056 4.9 664,164 24.6

    Old Pvt 220,412 214,595 2.7 176,981 24.5

    Grand Total 5,398,745 5,213,658 3.6 4,509,792 19.7

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Exhibit 22:DuPont analysisPvt. New PSU Large PSU Mid

    Parameter FY2011 9MFY2012 FY2013E FY2011 9MFY2012 FY2013E FY2011 9MFY2012 FY2013ENII 3.1 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7

    (-) Prov. Exp. 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8

    Adj NII 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.1 1.9 2.0 2.1 1.9 1

    Other Inc. 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7

    Op. Inc. 4.3 4.3 4.4 3.2 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.6 2.6

    Opex 2.2 2.1 2.2 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.5

    PBT 2.1 2.1 2.2 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1

    Taxes 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4

    ROA 1.5 1.5 1.5 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7Leverage 10.4 10.7 11.9 19.9 19.0 19.9 22.1 20.2 21.1

    ROE 15.1 15.8 17.9 18.4 16.2 17.0 18.9 17.0 15.1Source: Company, Angel Research

    Outlook and valuationIn our view, the rally in banking stocks has been in all the wrong stocks so far

    those stocks which have weak ROE and asset quality profiles within the PSU space

    have become more expensive in P/ABV terms than the ones with relatively better

    fundamentals. In light of the improving macro-economic scenario and reducing

    global overhang, we continue to have a positive view on the banking sector.

    However, going forward, we believe the next leg of this rally is likely to be driven

    by banks that have the strongest growth outlook, which are still trading close to

    their average multiples since April 2005. Accordingly, our top picks in the sector

    are Axis Bank and Yes Bank, where we expect significant rerating upsides.

    In case of Yes Bank, the stocks growth premium has reduced over time due to

    execution challenges in creating a retail deposit base (now trading at 2.2x vs. five-

    year median of 2.3x). However, taking the challenges of building a retail deposit

    base head-on, the bank has doubled its branch network over the past 18 months

    to 305 branches and aggressively increased savings rate to 7% as a smart

    customer acquisition strategy. While it has fallen short of its retail expansion goals

    in the past and challenges remain significant, valuations at 2.2x FY2013E ABV in

    our view provide a better risk-return trade-off than in the past and are at a

    substantial discount to some of the other new private banks like IndusInd. Hence,we recommend a Buy rating on the stock with a target price of `478.

  • 8/3/2019 Banking Result Updated

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    3QFY2012 Results Review | Banking

    February 22, 2012 10

    Ironically, while both Axis bank and Yes bank would rank amongst the top 3 banks

    in the sector in terms of earnings growth taken from FY2008 up to FY2013E

    (clocking in excess of 35% CAGR), however their stock returns since 1st January

    2008 have lagged behind at 12

    th

    and 9

    th

    respectively and there remains somedegree of skepticism about their outlook. This is especially the case on the asset

    quality front for Axis Bank (driven by unreliable anecdotal information in our view),

    even though it has amongst the lowest yield on advances in the industry. This

    skepticism can to an extent be gauged by the fact that since 2009, these are the

    only two banks (amongst well-tracked ones) to have beaten consensus quarterly

    earnings estimates for every single quarter (not counting HDFC Bank). To reiterate,

    we expect these two banks to continue to posting healthy operating performance

    going forward and at current valuations, we view them as being substantially

    under-valued compared to Sensex/HDFC Bank/peers.

    Coming to PSU Banks, the valuations for the entire pack have revived sharply overthe last month. This has led to a few specific cases (Andhra Bank, UCO bank,

    Central bank and Vijaya bank) where in we believe the valuations have exceeded

    the fundamentals. Hence, we recommend Neutral or Reduce on these stocks while

    being positive on banks such as Dena bank, United bank, Bank of Maharashtra

    and Syndicate bank, which we believe have a superior earnings quality outlook

    compared to peers. Within the large cap PSU banks as well, we continue to prefer

    SBI and BOB and would recommend a switch to these stocks from peers such as

    Bank of India, which are trading at comparatively more expensive valuations, in

    spite of weaker fundamentals in our view.

  • 8/3/2019 Banking Result Updated

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    3QFY2012 Results Review | Banking

    February 22, 2012 11

    Exhibit 23:Recommendation summaryCompany Reco. CMP(`) Tgt. price(`) Upside(%) FY2013EP/ABV (x) FY2013ETgt P/ABV (x) FY2013EP/E (x) FY2011-13EEPS CAGR (%) FY2013ERoA (%) FY2013ERoE (%) AxisBk Buy 1,217 1,73342.3 2.0 2.8 10.6 18.2 1.5 20.2

    FedBk Neutral 424 - - 1.1 - 9.2 16.2 1.2 13.2

    HDFCBk Neutral 532 - - 3.6 - 18.5 30.4 1.8 21.0

    ICICIBk* Buy 957 1,193 24.7 1.8 2.2 15.0 19.5 1.4 14.5

    SIB Neutral 27 - - 1.3 - 8.0 13.5 0.9 17.5

    YesBk Buy 347 478 38.0 2.2 3.0 11.5 20.1 1.4 20.6

    AllBk Accumulate 190 2089.6 0.9 1.0 5.3 9.1 0.9 17.3

    AndhBk Neutral 124 -- 0.9 - 5.8 (2.9) 0.9 15.1

    BOB Buy 816 979 20.0 1.1 1.4 6.3 9.8 1.1 19.3

    BOI Accumulate 366 402 9.8 1.1 1.3 7.7 2.3 0.6 13.7

    BOM Buy 54 63 16.8 0.7 0.9 5.1 31.2 0.7 16.9

    CanBk Accumulate 526 578 9.9 1.0 1.2 6.7 (7.4) 0.8 15.8CentBk Reduce 105 95 (9.8) 1.0 0.9 6.8 (25.1) 0.4 11.4

    CorpBk Buy 489 570 16.5 0.8 1.0 5.3 (1.8) 0.8 15.5

    DenaBk Buy 88 112 26.8 0.6 0.8 4.2 7.3 0.8 16.1

    IDBI# Accumulate 110 120 9.3 0.7 0.8 5.6 8.9 0.6 13.4

    IndBk Neutral 239 - - 1.0 - 5.7 3.6 1.2 18.2

    IOB Neutral 107 - - 0.7 - 5.6 5.3 0.5 12.8

    J&KBk Accumulate 807 877 8.8 0.8 0.9 4.7 16.7 1.4 19.0

    OBC Accumulate 287 313 8.9 0.7 0.8 6.3 (5.9) 0.7 11.3

    PNB Accumulate 1,026 1,165 13.5 1.2 1.4 6.5 6.4 1.0 19.4

    SBI* Accumulate 2,258 2,59514.9

    1.7 2.0 11.1 25.0 0.9 17.5SynBk Buy 107 129 20.3 0.7 0.9 4.5 13.7 0.7 16.5

    UcoBk Neutral 84 - - 1.0 - 5.5 10.9 0.6 15.4

    UnionBk Accumulate 249 265 6.4 1.0 1.1 6.3 0.1 0.7 15.8

    UtdBk Buy 77 92 19.4 0.7 0.8 4.3 15.3 0.6 14.4

    VijBk Neutral 63 -- 0.9 - 7.1 0.7 0.4 11.1

    Source: Company, Angel Research; Note:*Target multiples=SOTP Target Price/ABV (including subsidiaries), #Without adjusting for SASF,

    CMP as of 22nd February, 2012.

  • 8/3/2019 Banking Result Updated

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    3QFY2012 Results Review | Banking

    February 22, 2012 12

    Banking indicators watchExhibit 24:Credit and deposit growth trends

    Source: RBI, Angel Research

    Exhibit 25:Investment-Deposit ratio

    Source: RBI, Angel Research

    Exhibit 26:LAF borrowings

    Source: RBI, Angel Research

    Exhibit 27:Wholesale rates remain steady

    Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

    Exhibit 28:Forex reserves

    Source: RBI, Angel Research

    Exhibit 29:ECB demand trends

    Source: RBI, Angel Research

    -

    5.0

    10.0

    15.0

    20.0

    25.0

    30.0

    Oct-08

    Jan-0

    9

    Apr-09

    Jul-09

    Oct-09

    Jan-1

    0

    Apr-10

    Jul-10

    Oct-10

    Jan-1

    1

    Apr-11

    Jul-11

    Oct-11

    Jan-1

    2

    Credit growth (%) Deposit growth (% )

    27.0

    28.0

    29.0

    30.0

    31.0

    32.0

    70.0

    72.0

    74.0

    76.0

    78.0

    Nov-1

    0

    Dec-1

    0

    Jan-1

    1

    Feb-1

    1

    Mar-11

    Apr-11

    May-1

    1

    Jun-1

    1

    Jul-11

    Aug-1

    1

    Sep-1

    1

    Oct-11

    Nov-1

    1

    Dec-1

    1

    Jan-1

    2

    Credit-to-Deposit ratio (%) Inv-to-Dep ratio (% , RHS)

    (2,000)

    (1,500)

    (1,000)

    (500)

    -

    500

    1,000

    Mar-11

    Apr-11

    May-1

    1

    Jun-1

    1

    Jul-11

    Aug-1

    1

    Sep-1

    1

    Oct-11

    Nov-1

    1

    Dec-1

    1

    Jan-1

    2

    Feb-1

    2

    (` bn)

    6.0

    7.0

    8.0

    9.0

    10.0

    11.0

    12.0

    Feb-1

    1

    Mar-11

    Apr-11

    May-1

    1

    Jun-1

    1

    Jul-11

    Aug-1

    1

    Sep-1

    1

    Oct-11

    Nov-1

    1

    Dec-1

    1

    Jan-1

    2

    Feb-1

    2

    CP 3M CP 12M

    -

    80

    160

    240

    320

    400

    Sep-1

    0

    Oct-10

    Nov-1

    0

    Dec-1

    0

    Jan-1

    1

    Feb-1

    1

    Mar-11

    Apr-11

    May-1

    1

    Jun-1

    1

    Jul-11

    Aug-1

    1

    Sep-1

    1

    Oct-11

    Nov-1

    1

    Dec-1

    1

    Jan-1

    2

    Feb-1

    2

    (US$ Bn)

    3.0

    0.81.1

    3.4

    2.7

    1.4

    5.6

    2.1

    2.7

    3.3

    4.23.7

    2.4

    0.0

    1.0

    2.0

    3.0

    4.0

    5.0

    6.0

    Sep-1

    0

    Oct-10

    Nov-1

    0

    Dec-1

    0

    Jan-1

    1

    Feb-1

    1

    Mar-11

    Apr-11

    May-1

    1

    Jun-1

    1

    Jul-11

    Aug-1

    1

    Sep-1

    1

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    3QFY2012 Results Review | Banking

    February 22, 2012 13

    Exhibit 30:Corporate and government bond yields

    Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

    Exhibit 31:G-Sec yields indicating close to cyclical peak

    Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

    Sectoral and Industry-wise distribution of credit

    Exhibit 32:Credit growth driven by industry sectorSector Dec 2010 Dec 2011(` cr) % of total (` cr) % of total % chg (yoy) Agriculture 436,355 12.5 460,638 11.4 5.6

    Industry 1,551,030 44.3 1,858,502 45.9 19.8

    - Micro & Small 230,302 6.6 246,781 6.1 7.2

    - Medium 158,271 4.5 198,566 4.9 25.5

    - Large 1,162,456 33.2 1,413,154 34.9 21.6

    Services 856,811 24.4 984,688 24.3 14.9

    Personal Loans 660,628 18.8 741,948 18.3 12.3

    - Housing 337,596 9.6 378,601 9.4 12.1

    - Vehicle 76,948 2.2 90,577 2.2 17.7

    Non-food Credit 3,504,823 100.0 4,045,776 100.0 15.4Source: RBI, Angel Research

    Exhibit 33:Strong growth being witnessed in MetalsIndustry Dec 2010 Dec 2011(` cr) % of total (` cr) % of total % chg (yoy)Infrastructure 495,179 31.9 596,767 32.1 20.5

    Metals 199,635 12.9 247,712 13.3 24.1

    Textiles 135,313 8.7 152,167 8.2 12.5

    Engineering 90,139 5.8 108,553 5.8 20.4

    Chemicals 95,490 6.2 104,555 5.6 9.5

    Food Processing 78,910 5.1 92,253 5.0 16.9

    Oil and Gas 64,187 4.1 66,478 3.6 3.6

    Construction 46,317 3.0 54,406 2.9 17.5

    Vehicles 43,7402.8 52,897 2.8 20.9

    Gems & Jewellery 37,196 2.4 48,288 2.6 29.8

    Other Industries 264,925 17.1 334,424 18.0 26.2Total 1,551,031 100.0 1,858,500 100.0 19.8Source: RBI, Angel Research

    9.6

    7

    9.6

    2

    9.6

    6

    9.7

    2

    8.8

    2

    8.8

    1

    8.8

    5

    8.8

    6

    9.6

    1

    9.4

    9

    9.2

    9

    9.2

    2

    8.4

    5

    8.2

    9

    8.2

    9

    8.1

    9

    7.0

    7.5

    8.0

    8.5

    9.0

    9.5

    10.0

    AAA 1 YrAAA 3 YrAAA 5 YrAAA 10 YrGsec 1YrGsec 5YrGsec 7YrGsec 10Yr

    17-Nov-11 17-Feb-12(%)

    4.5

    5.5

    6.5

    7.5

    8.5

    9.5

    (1.0)

    -

    1.0

    2.0

    3.0

    4.0

    Jun-0

    5

    Nov-0

    5

    Apr-06

    Sep-0

    6

    Feb-0

    7

    Jul-07

    Dec-0

    7

    May-0

    8

    Oct-08

    Mar-09

    Aug-0

    9

    Jan-1

    0

    Jun-1

    0

    Nov-1

    0

    Apr-11

    Sep-1

    1

    Feb-1

    2

    G-Sec 1Yr and 10Yr Spread (%) Repo Rate (%, RHS)

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    3QFY2012 Results Review | Banking

    February 22, 2012 14

    Valuation watch

    Exhibit 34:Private banks P/ABV trends*

    Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: Private banks under our coverage

    Exhibit 35:Public sector banks P/ABV trends

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Exhibit 36:Large private banks P/ABV trends

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Exhibit 37:Large public sector banks P/ABV trends

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Exhibit 38:Small private banks P/ABV trends*

    Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: Small pvt. banks under our coverage

    Exhibit 39:Mid-cap* public sector banks P/ABV trends

    Source: Company, Angel Research, Note*:Mid and small PSU banks

    0.60

    1.00

    1.40

    1.80

    2.20

    2.60

    3.00

    3.40

    Mar-05

    Sep-0

    5

    Mar-06

    Sep-0

    6

    Mar-07

    Sep-0

    7

    Mar-08

    Sep-0

    8

    Mar-09

    Sep-0

    9

    Mar-10

    Sep-1

    0

    Mar-11

    Sep-1

    1

    P/ABV Median 15th percentile 85th percentile

    0.50

    0.80

    1.10

    1.40

    1.70

    2.00

    Mar-05

    Aug-0

    5

    Jan-0

    6

    Jun-0

    6

    Nov-0

    6

    Apr-07

    Sep-0

    7

    Feb-0

    8

    Jul-08

    Dec-0

    8

    May-0

    9

    Oct-09

    Mar-10

    Aug-1

    0

    Jan-1

    1

    Jun-1

    1

    Nov-1

    1

    P/ABV Median 15th percentile 85th percentile

    0.60

    1.00

    1.40

    1.80

    2.20

    2.60

    3.00

    3.40

    Mar-05

    Sep-0

    5

    Mar-06

    Sep-0

    6

    Mar-07

    Sep-0

    7

    Mar-08

    Sep-0

    8

    Mar-09

    Sep-0

    9

    Mar-10

    Sep-1

    0

    Mar-11

    Sep-1

    1

    P/ABV Median 15th percentile 85th percentile

    0.70

    1.00

    1.30

    1.60

    1.90

    2.20

    2.50

    Mar-05

    Aug-05

    Jan-06

    Jun-06

    Nov-0

    6

    Apr-07

    Sep-0

    7

    Feb-0

    8

    Jul-08

    Dec-08

    May-0

    9

    Oct-09

    Mar-10

    Aug-10

    Jan-11

    Jun-11

    Nov-1

    1

    P/ABV Median 15th percentile 85th percentile

    0.30

    0.70

    1.10

    1.50

    1.90

    2.30

    Mar-05

    Sep-0

    5

    Mar-06

    Sep-0

    6

    Mar-07

    Sep-0

    7

    Mar-08

    Sep-0

    8

    Mar-09

    Sep-0

    9

    Mar-10

    Sep-1

    0

    Mar-11

    Sep-1

    1

    P/ABV Median 15th percentile 85th percentile

    0.30

    0.60

    0.90

    1.20

    1.50

    Mar-05

    Aug-0

    5

    Jan-0

    6

    Jun-0

    6

    Nov-0

    6

    Apr-07

    Sep-0

    7

    Feb-0

    8

    Jul-08

    Dec-0

    8

    May-0

    9

    Oct-09

    Mar-10

    Aug-1

    0

    Jan-1

    1

    Jun-1

    1

    Nov-1

    1

    P/ABV Median 15th percentile 85th percentile

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    3QFY2012 Results Review | Banking

    February 22, 2012 15

    Economy watch

    Exhibit 40:Quarterly GDP trends

    Source: CSO, Angel Research

    Exhibit 41:IIP trends

    Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

    Exhibit 42:Monthly WPI inflation trends

    Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

    Exhibit 43:Manufacturing and services PMI

    Source: Markit, Angel Research

    Exhibit 44:Exports and imports growth trends

    Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

    Exhibit 45:Eight core industry growth rates for Dec 2011

    Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

    7.5

    6.15.8

    6.3

    8.6

    7.3

    9.4

    8.88.4 8.3

    7.8 7.7

    6.9

    5.0

    6.0

    7.0

    8.0

    9.0

    10.0

    2QFY09

    3QFY09

    4QFY09

    1QFY10

    2QFY10

    3QFY10

    4QFY10

    1QFY11

    2QFY11

    3QFY11

    4QFY11

    1QFY12

    2QFY12

    (%)

    7.56.7

    9.4

    5.36.2

    9.5

    3.7 3.42.5

    (4.7)

    5.9

    1.8

    (6.0)

    (4.0)

    (2.0)

    -

    2.0

    4.0

    6.0

    8.0

    10.0

    12.0

    Jan-1

    1

    Feb-1

    1

    Mar-11

    Apr-11

    May-1

    1

    Jun-1

    1

    Jul-11

    Aug-1

    1

    Sep-1

    1

    Oct-11

    Nov-1

    1

    Dec-1

    1

    (%)

    9.5 9.7 9.7 9.6 9.5 9.4 9.810.0 9.9 9.5

    7.56.6

    0.0

    2.0

    4.0

    6.0

    8.0

    10.0

    12.0

    Feb-1

    1

    Mar-11

    Apr-11

    May-1

    1

    Jun-1

    1

    Jul-11

    Aug-1

    1

    Sep-1

    1

    Oct-11

    Nov-1

    1

    Dec-1

    1

    Jan-1

    2

    (%)

    48.0

    50.0

    52.0

    54.0

    56.0

    58.0

    60.0

    62.0

    Aug-1

    0

    Sep-1

    0

    Oct-10

    Nov-1

    0

    Dec-1

    0

    Jan-1

    1

    Feb-1

    1

    Mar-11

    Apr-11

    May-1

    1

    Jun-1

    1

    Jul-11

    Aug-1

    1

    Sep-1

    1

    Oct-11

    Nov-1

    1

    Dec-1

    1

    Jan-1

    2

    Mfg. PMI Services PMI

    -

    15

    30

    45

    60

    75

    90

    Oct-10

    Nov-1

    0

    Dec-1

    0

    Jan-1

    1

    Feb-1

    1

    Mar-11

    Apr-11

    May-1

    1

    Jun-1

    1

    Jul-11

    Aug-1

    1

    Sep-1

    1

    Oct-11

    Nov-1

    1

    Dec-1

    1

    Exports growth Imports growth(%)

    5.6

    (5.6)

    (10.8)

    0.8

    (2.5)

    2.2

    13.3

    8.0

    (15.0)

    (10.0)

    (5.0)

    -

    5.0

    10.0

    15.0

    Coal

    CrudeOil

    NaturalGas

    RefinaryProducts

    Fertilizers

    Steel

    Cement

    Electricity

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    3QFY2012 Results Review | Banking

    February 22, 2012 16

    Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.angelbroking.com

    DISCLAIMERThis document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investmentdecision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make

    such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies

    referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and

    risks of such an investment.

    Angel Broking Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make

    investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this

    document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within.

    Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and

    trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's

    fundamentals.

    The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliablesources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as thisdocument is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any wayresponsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report .Angel Broking Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify,nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. WhileAngel Broking Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory,compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so.

    This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced,

    redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly.

    Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or

    other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in

    the past.

    Neither Angel Broking Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in

    connection with the use of this information.

    Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to thelatest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may haveinvestment positions in the stocks recommended in this report.

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    3QFY2012 Results Review | Banking

    February 22, 2012 17

    Ratings (Returns): Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)Reduce (-5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%)

    Note: We have not considered any Exposure below `1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors

    Disclosure of Interest Statement

    Analyst ownership Angel and its Group companies Angel and its Group companies' Broking relationshipof the stock ownership of the stock Directors ownership of the stock with company covered

    AxisBk No Yes Yes

    FedBk No No No No

    HDFCBk No No No No

    ICICIBk No No No No

    SIB No No No No

    YesBk No No No No

    AllBk No No No

    AndhBk No No No

    BOB No No No No

    BOI No No No No

    BOM No No No No

    CanBk No No No No

    CentBk No No No No

    CorpBk No No No No

    DenaBk No No No No

    IDBI No No No No

    IndBk No No No No

    IOB No No No No

    J&KBk No No No No

    OBC No No No No

    PNB No No No No

    SBI No No Yes No

    SynBk No No No No

    UcoBk No No No No

    UnionBk No No No No

    UtdBk No No No No

    VijBk No No No

  • 8/3/2019 Banking Result Updated

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    3QFY2012 Results Review | Banking

    6th Floor, Ackruti Star, Central Road, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Tel: (022) 39357800Research Team

    Fundamental:

    Sarabjit Kour Nangra VP-Research, Pharmaceutical [email protected]

    Vaibhav Agrawal VP-Research, Banking [email protected]

    Shailesh Kanani Infrastructure [email protected]

    Bhavesh Chauhan Metals & Mining [email protected]

    Sharan Lillaney Mid-cap [email protected]

    V Srinivasan Research Associate (Cement, Power) [email protected]

    Yaresh Kothari Research Associate (Automobile) [email protected]

    Hemang Thaker Research Associate (Capital Goods) [email protected]

    Nitin Arora Research Associate (Infra, Real Estate) [email protected]

    Ankita Somani Research Associate (IT, Telecom) [email protected]

    Varun Varma Research Associate (Banking) [email protected]

    Sourabh Taparia Research Associate (Cement, Power) [email protected]

    Technicals:

    Shardul Kulkarni Sr. Technical Analyst [email protected]

    Sameet Chavan Technical Analyst [email protected]

    Sacchitanand Uttekar Technical Analyst [email protected]

    Derivatives:

    Siddarth Bhamre Head - Derivatives [email protected]

    Institutional Sales Team:

    Mayuresh Joshi VP - Institutional Sales [email protected]

    Hiten Sampat Sr. A.V.P- Institution sales [email protected]

    Meenakshi Chavan Dealer [email protected]

    Gaurang Tisani Dealer [email protected]

    Akshay Shah Sr. Executive [email protected]

    Production Team:

    Simran Kaur Research Editor [email protected]

    Dilip Patel Production [email protected]

    CSO & Registered Office: G-1, Ackruti Trade Centre, Rd. No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093.Tel.: (022) 3083 7700. Angel Broking Ltd: BSE Sebi Regn No: INB010996539 / PMS Regd Code: PM/INP000001546 / CDSL Regn No: IN - DP - CDSL - 234 - 2004 / NSE Sebi Regn Nos: Cash: INB231279838 /NSE F&O: INF231279838/Currency: INE231279838 / MCX Currency Sebi Regn No: INE261279838 / Member ID: 10500 / Angel Commodities Broking Pvt. Ltd: MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX : Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302