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Nuclear Energy and Climate Change
Revision 7
Princeton University
Balancing Risks
Alexander Glaser
Second Annual Great Issues in Energy Symposium: The Nuclear OptionDartmouth College, April 9, 2010
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Nuclear Energy Today
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Nuclear Power Reactors in the World, 2010(438 reactors in 30 countries)
More than 10 GWe installed
Less than 1 GWe installed
2
2
2
104
18
54
32
1120
6
22
164Europe
19
Last update: 4 April 2010
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Where Do We Go From Here?The Scale of a Hypothetical Expansion
(Long-term vs Short-term)
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Balancing Risks: Nuclear Energy and Climate Change
Today's Long-Term Electricity Projections
5
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are relatively robust against variations of CO2-emission-reduction objectives
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Median
80’th percentile
20’th percentile
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Nuclear Power Reactors in the World, 2010(438 reactors in 30 countries)
More than 10 GWe installed
Less than 1 GWe installed
2
2
2
104
18
54
32
1120
6
22
164Europe
19
Last update: 4 April 2010
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Global Nuclear Expansion Scenario(1500 GWe in 58 countries, based on 2003 MIT study)
More than 10 GWe installed
At least 1 GWe installed
1921
32
19
444
58
85
48
18534
15
914
9
1
18North Africa
2
4
9
239Europe
8
59South-East Asia
5
163
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Nuclear “Newcomer” CountriesAccording to the IAEA, 60+ countries are currently considering nuclear programs
Only 50 includedLast update: 4 April 2010
More than 10 GWe installed
Less than 1 GWe installed
Considering nuclear program
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Balancing Risks: Nuclear Energy and Climate Change
Legacies of the First “Atoms for Peace” Era
9
Kinshasa Research Reactor, DR Congo, 2007
Source: AFP/Getty Images
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The Next Decade
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Balancing Risks: Nuclear Energy and Climate Change
Evolution of IAEA/OECD Forecasts
OECD 1973
OECD 1977
OECD 1982
World 2008(low/high)
OECD 2001
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America's Energy Future: Technology and TransformationNational Academy of Sciences; National Academy of Engineering; National Research Council
Washington, DC, July 2009www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=12091
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Balancing Risks: Nuclear Energy and Climate Change
America’s Energy Future
13
The viability of two key technologies must be demonstrated during the
next decade to allow for their widespread deployment starting around
2020:
- Demonstrate whether CCS technologies ... are technically and
commercially viable for application to both existing and new power
plants. […]
- Demonstrate whether evolutionary nuclear plants are
commercially viable in the United States by constructing a suite of
about five plants during the next decade.”
“
National Research Council, July 2009, Executive Summary
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Balancing Risks: Nuclear Energy and Climate Change
Little new capacity will be added in the United Statesand (even less so) in Western Europe
Little (if any) capacity will come online in “newcomer” countries
The Next Decade
By the end of the decade, we will understand better theeconomics and some other constraints for both nuclear and its competitors
14
In particular, nuclear power may have to be taken off the tableif “global deployment scenario” remains unacceptable
We may take options off the table at that point
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What Should Be DoneIn the Meantime?
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Refrain From Reprocessing
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Balancing Risks: Nuclear Energy and Climate Change
Stockpiles of Separated Plutonium, 2009Global stockpile is 500 tons, half is civilian and this stock is growing
10,000 warheads
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Balancing Risks: Nuclear Energy and Climate Change
Civilian Separated Plutoniumin a Disarming World
18
R. Socolow and A. Glaser, “Balancing Risks: Nuclear Energy and Climate Change,” Daedalus, 2009.
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Balancing Risks: Nuclear Energy and Climate Change
Material Flows for Nuclear Options
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400 GW CANDU 400 GW LWR240 GW LWR
160 GW Fast Reactors
Annually for Reference Capacity of 400 GW (electric)
UraniumRequirements
60,000 MT(25% reduction)
80,000 MT(reference value)
48,000 MT(40% reduction)
Enrichment -- 48,000 tSWU 28,800 tSWU
PlutoniumSeparation Rate
-- -- 280 MT(35,000 Significant Quantities)
Waste400 MT FP + 200 MT Pu
embedded in60,000 MT of spent fuel
400 MT FP + 100 MT Puembedded in
80,000 MT of spent fuel
400 MT FPin process waste
(ideally no Pu/TRU)
MT = Metric Tons / SWU = Separative Work Units / FP = Fission Products
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Balancing Risks: Nuclear Energy and Climate Change
Could Small Nuclear Reactors Play a Role?
20
• Light-water cooled• 125-750 MWe• Underground construction• 60-year spent fuel storage onsite• Quasi-standard LWR fuelSource: www.babcock.com/products/modular_nuclear/
Some concepts are based on light-water reactor technology
Babock & Wilcox mPower Concept
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Build a New Framework forthe Nuclear Fuel Cycle
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Balancing Risks: Nuclear Energy and Climate Change
Why Centrifuges Are Different
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Characteristics of centrifuge technology relevant to nuclear proliferation
Rapid Breakout and Clandestine Option
Zippe Centrifuge, 1959
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The Natanz Site in Iran (2007)
200 meters
(FEP)
FuelEnrichment
Plant
(FEP)
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Global Enrichment Capacities, 2010
1,00010
10,000
20,000
26,200
tSWU/yr Total SWU-production in country/region
(14 operational plants in 10 countries, not including two military plants)
150
120
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Enrichment Demand and Distribution(for 1500 GWe Global Nuclear Expansion Scenario based on light-water reactors)
Global enrichment capacity: 1,500 x 150 tSWU/yr (225,000 tSWU/yr)
12,750
4,800
2,250
5,100
27,750
24,450
5,400
2,8503,150
2,850
36,600
20,850
37,200
11,050
10,300
17,650
tSWU/yr Total SWU-production in country
Combined SWU-demand of countries importing alltheir enrichment services: 11,850 tSWU/yr
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Balancing Risks: Nuclear Energy and Climate Change
Preventing the Further Spreadand Assuring Peaceful Use
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PreventingFurtherSpread
AssuringPeaceful
Use
• Tighten export controls (further)
• Delegitimize enrichment in today’s “non-enrichment” states
• Increase the ability to detect undeclared facilities
• Encourage multilateral approaches to the nuclear fuel cycle
• Increase the effectiveness of IAEA safeguards
• Revisit alternative “proliferation-resistant” technologies
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Balancing Risks: Nuclear Energy and Climate Change
Statement by the Group of 77
The Group, in principle, reiterates its strong rejection of any attempts
aimed to discourage the pursuit of any peaceful nuclear technology on
the grounds of its alleged ‘sensitivity.’ ... The Group is of the view that
any proposal for the assurance of supply should not be designed in a
way that discourages States from developing or expanding their
capabilities in the area of the nuclear fuel cycle, nor to hamper
research and development and international cooperation in the field
of peaceful nuclear activities.”
“
(representing interests of 130 developing countries at the United Nations)
during the June 2009 IAEA Board of Governors Meeting
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Balancing Risks: Nuclear Energy and Climate Change
Concluding Remarks
30
The next decade is critical
Nuclear power could make a significant contributionto climate-change mitigation
Nuclear power would have to be deployed extensively, including in the developing world
Not much new nuclear capacity will be added in the United States and Europe
Time to establish economics, adequate technologies, and new norms of governance
Nuclear disarmament as an opportunity
Deeper cuts in the nuclear arsenals could encourage weapon (and non-weapon) statesto embrace serious multilateral approaches to the civilian nuclear fuel cycle