avpn presentation jan 2014 - maitrii

8/13/2019 AVPN Presentation Jan 2014 - Maitrii

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Recent Developments in

Myanmar, 2010-2014

Gen. Than Shwe Gen. Thein Sein

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(Recent Developments in

Myanmar)

2010 Elections

Formation of a newgovernment

New civil liberties

Lifting of economicsanctions

Photo: @ Soe Than WinAFP/Getty Images

Parliament

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Myanmar)

Photograph: Andrew Harnick

Aung San SuuKyi

President Thein Sein

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Myanmar) Departing from

isolation

Govt inviteswestern investment

West accelerates

engagement

Photo: (Saul Loeb - AP)

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton visits Aung San

Suu Kyi, Dec. 2011

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Myanmar) Establishment

narrative

1. Authoritarian vs.Democratic, 1988

2. Isolation vs.

Engagement3. Internal change

vs. External changePresident Obama and Sec. of State Clinton atthe Shwedagon Paya, 2012

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Myanmar) Unresolved Issues:

Communal violence

Peace Process,reconciliation

Constitutional Reform,article 59F

Communal violence in Rakhine State

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Myanmar) (Unresolved Issues)

Lack of infrastructure

and capacity Apparent struggle

between reformers andconservatives

Continuity of militaryrole

Problem=politicalfactors

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Myanmar) Unconventional

Narrative

1. Civil War, 1948-2011

2.Struggle overidentity and the nation

3. Socio-economic,cultural factors

Cease-fire with Karen National Union, Jan. 2012

Photo: (Soe Zeya Tun/Courtesy Reuters)9


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Myanmar) Approach:

Community

formation inMyanmar

Contest for thestate

Struggle overvisions ofMyanmaridentity

British Burma1824-1942

(Japanese) State of Burma,

1943-1945Union of Burma,1948-1962

Socialist RepublicUnion of Burma,1962-1988

Union of Myanmar, 1989-2010

Republic of the Union ofMyanmar, 2008-current

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Myanmar)Broad Assessment:

Communities imagine Myanmar

differently, consensus a challenge.

Different historical experiences create

different priorities

Different notions of belonging andaffiliation affect political stability.

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I. Social-Cultural Setting

A. Different

landscapes 1. River valleys

2. Highlands

3. Coastlines

4. Upstream-downstream

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Social-Cultural Setting

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(I. Social-Cultural Setting)

B. Different language-families

1. Tibeto-Burman 2. Tai (Dai)

3. Austroasiatic

4. Hundreds of sub-

dialects

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(I. Social Cultural Setting)

C. Differentcultural influences

Buddhist 89%

Christian 4%

Muslim 4%

Animist 1%

Other 2%

Nat Pwe

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D. Different historicalexperiences

1. Exposed to different

cultural influences,intensities

2. Socio-economicstratification

3. Center-peripherycompetition

Mahabodhi Temple in Bagan

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F. Broad Patterns, Early Kingdoms

1. Power centered on individuals and

support networks2. Social bonds were often hierarchical

3. Communities loosely connected

4. Tension between center and localautonomy

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II. Conquest: The Colonial

Community A. British Burma

1. Three Anglo-

Burmese Wars2. Burmese throneis dismantled

3. Burmese

conceptual universeunraveled

Third Anglo-Burmese War19


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(II. Conquest)

B. New Landscapes

1. Fixed boundariesestablished

2. Communities areartificiallyseparated

3. Reconfiguresocial relations

4. Economictransformation

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(II. Conquest)

C. New Notions ofAuthority 1. British Indian Civil

Service expands

2. British Indian legalsystem adopted

3. Buddhist sector

fragments 4. Colonial education

supports new(minority) elites

Secretariat, Yangon

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(II. Conquest)

E. Political Constraints

1. Political parties aredivided, personalnetworks

3. Rural communitiesisolated

3. Radical studentsseek external supportfrom China and Japan

Dobama March 23


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III. Collapse: Socio-Political

Fragmentation, 1942-1962 A. World War II

1. Japan invades, Britishauthorities retreat

2. Aung San leads BurmeseIndependence Army (BIA)

3. Pro-colonial elitesimprisoned, radicalsreleased

4. Communists beginarmed resistance

5. Defeat of Japan createspower vacuum

Members of the 30 Comrades

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(III. Collapse)

B. Independence

1. Multiple stakeholders,competing visions, &

loyalties 2. Ex-colonial officials,

elites, radical nationalists,ethnic groups, BIA

3. Anti-Fascist Peoples

Freedom League (AFPFL)provides loose unity

4. Aung San assassinated in1947, independence 1948

Aung San 25


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(III. Collapse)

C. Post-colonialCommunity, 1948-1962 1. Civilian rule

established

2. Communists andethnic groups

marginalized 4. Civil war erupts

Anti-Fascist Freedom League Government

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(III. Collapse)

D. Crisis & Instability

1. Government haslittle control

2. National identitythrough Buddhism

3. U Nu asks army totake over in 1958;

returns power tocivilian rule 1960

4. Military Coup 1962

U Nu

Ne Win 27


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IV. Struggle for the Nation

A. Revolutionary Council 1. Military fills in power

vacuum, strongest post-war institution

2. Integration throughmilitary expansion

3. Socialist ideology andmodels adopted; BurmaSocialist Program Party

4. Shift from civilian rule tohybrid military-civilianrule

General Ne Win 28


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(IV. Struggle)

B. Nation-Building

1. National culturedefined and promoted;Buddhist pastemphasized

2. Peasant experiencesfeatured prominently

in new histories

3. Minorityexperiences oftenneglected

Workers Day Poster, 1962

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(IV. Struggle)

C. Economic

1. Centrally plannedeconomic policies,

nationalized businesses 2. Agriculture and

industry sectorstargeted

3. Rural sectorreceives governmentfunding

4. Urban developmentneglected

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(IV. Struggle)

D. Political-EconomicOutcomes

1. Mid 1980s, national

economy collapses 2. Demonetized the

currency in 1985]

3. Armed insurgencies

continue separatistagenda

4. Government callsfor meetings to resolvecrisis

1988 demonstrations

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(IV. Struggle)

E. BSPP Collapse, 1988 1. University student

protests

2. Ne Win dissolves BSPPcalls for referendum

3. Political stakeholders seeopportunity

4. Aung San Suu Kyibecomes singular image ofopposition

5. State Law and OrderRestoration Council,military rule re-established

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V. Civil War & Reconstruction

A. Broader Struggle forMyanmar

1. Contest for the state at

the center and theperiphery

2. 1990s urban reformmovement; rural separatistmovements

3. Debate over direction ofthe nation

4. Debate over the natureof reconstruction/reform

Shan forces

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(V. Civil War and

Reconstruction) B. Competing Visions

1. 1990 constituent

assembly elections 2. National League for

Democracy win, led byformer generals

3. Disagreement overwhat the electionsmeant

4. Created polarizedimage of military vs.

democracy movement 34


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(V. Civil War and

Reconstruction) (B. Competing Visions)

5. Government adopts

democracy language 6. Secures key cease-fireagreements with ethnicgroups

7. Holds constitutionalconvention and referendum

8. Prepares for elections in2010, promising return tocivilian rule

Constitutional Convention

Cyclone Nargis 35


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(V. Civil War and

Reconstruction) D. Fissures

1. Domestic issues underintense internationalscrutiny

2. Internal rivalries

3. Urban and rural unrestexacerbates politicalinstability

4. International community

divided over Myanmarpolicies

National Democratic Front

2007 36


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(V. Civil War and

Reconstruction) E. Broad Patterns

1. Process of post-socialistreconstruction beginsin1990s

2. Re-integration of thestate, economic expansion

3. Ethnic groups aligningthemselves with nationalcommunity ideal

4. Transition from militaryto hybrid government

Aung San Suu Kyi joining parliament

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Myanmar in Context: A

Different Read Contemporary debate part of long-term

struggle

Communities imagine Myanmardifferently, consensus a challenge.

Expectations for the future of Myanmarbased on different priorities.

Bread-n-butter issues, rather than ideology,are a priority for the majority ofstakeholders.

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Source

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avpn presentation jan 2014 - maitrii

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