australasian talent conference 2013 - national workforce development strategy
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Robin Shreeve presents a keynote at the 2013 Australasian Talent Conference in Sydney. Robin is Chief Executive of the Australian Workforce and Productivity Agency (AWPA) and presented "Future Focus: 2013 National Workforce Development Strategy". Find out more about the Australasian Talent Conference at www.atcevent.comTRANSCRIPT
Future focus: 2013 National Workforce Development Strategy
Australian Talent ConferenceMay 2013
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The Australian Workforce and Productivity Agency
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• Began as Skills Australia. Expert independent Board with expertise in industry, economics, education and academia
• Provides independent advice to the government on current, emerging and future skills needs and workforce development needs
• Remit expanded in March 2009 to look at full scope of labour market and give advice on HE & VET
• 2011 Budget announcement -extended role as Australian Workforce and Productivity Agency. Responsible for National Workforce Development Fund. Legislation passed June 2012.
• 1 July 2012 – became the Australian Workforce and Productivity Agency
Back row (L to R): Dr John Edwards, Heather Ridout, Keith Spence
Middle row: Prof. Gerald Burke, Peter Anderson, Ged Kearney
Front row: Marie Persson,Philip Bullock (Chair), Dr Michael Keating AC
The world of work is changing
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Where work is being outsourced to and supplied from
What we are doing and why
What challenges face our workforce now and over the
years to 2025?
How should we address
them?
Productivity
Evolving technology
Participation
Skills under-utilisation
Restructuring Industries
Innovation
Changing work
arrangements
2025
Asian Century
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Specialised occupations
Scenarios
Demand Driven Funding
• Apply concept of specialised occupations - those occupations with greatest risk of market failure
• Develop, test and model multiple scenarios to achieve flexible policy responses
• Fund users rather than providers – but only after you have sorted out quality and regulation
Our three conceptual pillars in our response to aligning skills, qualifications and the economy’s needs
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Approach to the 2012 strategy
Plausible worlds
(but not predicting
the future!)
Scenario
Projections of demand & supply side implications
of the scenarios
Modelling
The policy recommendations
balance aspirational goals
and risks, after assessing key
differences between the
scenarios
Strategy
Analysing the
uncertainty, commonality,
differences and risks of
the scenarios
Analysis
Each process informs the next
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The four scenarios
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Flexiblemigration
Fluctuating labour participation
Slightly differing industry
structures
Varying fiscal capacity
Commonalities• Ageing population• Importance of Asia• Technology• Sustainability challenge
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Positioning the Australian workforce for the future
Increasing qualifications to meet growing demand for higher skills
Improving productivity in the workplace
Building labour force participation to meet current and future needs
Raising language, literacy, and numeracy skill levels
Enabling individuals and the tertiary system to be more adaptive
Strengthening quality in the tertiary sector
Investing in skills will pay for itself
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Australia will need a more highly skilled and qualified workforce
Qualification held 2011 2025 (‘000) Average annual change 2011–25 (%)
Long boom
Smart recovery
Terms of trade shock
Ring of fire
Long boom
Smart recovery
Terms of trade shock
Ring of fire
Postgraduate 1,588.0 3,104.7 2,714.9 2,941.4 2,187.5 4.9 3.9 4.5 2.3
Undergraduate 4,126.3 7,256.9 6,475.3 6,877.5 5,435.7 4.1 3.3 3.7 2
Advanced diploma/Diploma 2,299.5 3,842.3 3,428.2 3,632.4 2,920.1 3.7 2.9 3.3 1.7
Certificate III &IV 3,597.6 6,195.8 5,323.0 5,671.9 4,441.9 4 2.8 3.3 1.5
Certificate I & II 1,563.1 2,079.2 1,914.9 1,961.2 1,774.6 2.1 1.5 1.6 0.9
Total 13,174.6 22,479.0 19,856.4 21,084.5 16,759.8 3.9 3 3.4 1.7
Total qualifications held by persons employed, unemployed and not in the labour force, by scenario and qualification level (‘000)
Derived from Deloitte Access Economics, 2012, Economic modelling of skills demand and supply, Tables 5.10–5.17.
Education qualifications forecasts
Source: Deloitte Access Economics (2012) ‘Economic modelling of skills demand and supply’ - derived from p.iv and tables 5.18-5.21
Long Boom Smart Recovery
Terms of Trade Shock
Ring of Fire
Proportion with post school qualifications
75.4% 70.3% 73.7% 65.0%
Annual number of additional qualifications required to 2025 831,900 643,800 726,100 411,500
Share of those employed with post-school qualifications, by 2025
In 2011 the share of employed persons with a post-school qualification was 59.8%
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Projected qualification supply less demand (based on labour force) annual average 5 years to 2025
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Qualification Long Boom Smart Recovery
Terms of Trade Shock
Ring of Fire
Postgraduate -71,180 -43,579 -57,939 -725
Undergraduate -106,109 -65,394 -90,628 -2,458
Adv. Diploma/ Diploma
-61,180 -49,539 -55,818 -23,290
Certificate III/IV 9,004 38,111 22,909 59,311
Certificate I/II 64,236 66,657 65,493 64,351
Total -165, 229 -54,745 -115,982 97,189
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A knowledge economy through skills development and targeted planning
• Skills are part of the solution to participation, skills shortage and productivity challenges
• Demand for higher level qualifications is strongest.• But lower level qualifications are necessary to increase
participation and are a pathway to higher level qualifications.• The increasingly demand-led tertiary system means workforce
development plans in priority sectors and monitoring skills supply is critical.
Recommendation:1.1 – Minimum annual increase of 3% in tertiary education qualifications to 2025
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Why do we need to improve our productivity?
Employment by highest qualification, persons 25-64, Australia 2011
(% of population in each group)
Achievement in education and training has considerable effect on employment
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Earnings, employed persons 15-64 by level of qualification, Australia 2009
Higher qualifications = higher rate of return
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Gender segregation
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Student returns – VET and HE
Source: KPMG Econtech , Economic Modelling of Improved Funding and Reform Arrangements for Universities (2010)
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How can we improve productivity?
• Workforce development integrates business strategy, work organisation and job design
• Skills development as investment not cost• Improving skills utilisation indicative of high-
performing workplaces
Workplace
• Closer alignment between government programs to facilitate workforce development
National Strategy
Benefit• Improved
profitability, innovation, productivity and retention
•Positive impact on employee motivation and job satisfaction
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Improving productivity in the workplace
Skills in the workplace• Skills are used
effectively• Skills are
continuously developed
• Skills, techniques and improvements are shared
SMES• Australia has a high
proportion of SMEs• SMEs face barriers
to innovation• SMEs need support
to develop and implement innovative workforce development plans
Management and leadership• modelling shows
increased demand for managers across all scenarios
• management’s ability to effectively use the skills of workers is a strong influence on innovation and productivity
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Improving productivity in the workplace
Recommendations:2.1 – Adjust NWDF guidelines to allow other workforce development activities that complement training delivery2.2 – Explore joint funding between Enterprise Connect & Skills Connect to support workforce development for SMEs2.3 – Extend Enterprise Connect services to other labour-intensive industries2.4 – Commission review of leadership and management, including front line management2.5 – Co-fund proposals that support regional employment and workforce development partnerships
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Participation improves social inclusion
People with low skills
Older workers
People with disadvantage
Focus on upskilling
Focus on retention
Focus on access and support to build sustainable pathways to work
Improving social inclusion Benefits
•People with qualifications 20%* more likely to be in labour force
•Qualification completions assist in lift participation rates and meeting projected labour demand
• Increasing skills of existing workers improves job advancement, opening opportunities for job seekers
Expanding tertiary places is not enough
Align job services and training providers
Expand wraparound services
*ABS, 2011, Education and work, Cat no. 6227.0, May, Canberra
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Building labour force participation to meet current and future needs
Recommendations:3.1 – Adopt aspirational goal of 69% labour force participation by 20253.2 – Co-contribution funding for industry-led initiatives supporting employment in non-traditional occupations3.3 – Up-scaling successful approaches to help workers over 45 to re-enter the workforce3.4 – Additional funding for expansion of training delivery strategies and wraparound services3.5 – Better align JSA contractual arrangements to promote training for disadvantaged job seekers that is more flexible, fit for purpose and aligned to job outcomes; provide additional funding to incentivise provision of longer support for disadvantaged job seekers
Raising language, literacy, and numeracy skills is critical
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We know there is a strong relationship between LLN skills and employment – those with higher levels of LLN skills are more likely to be employed YET…
44%* of Australians have literacy scores below level 3
55%* of Australians have numeracy scores
below level 3
LLN development for adults
continues to be stigmatised despite being a widespread
issue
Many employers report they are
impacted by low LLN skills yet most
employers are unaware of existing
programs
*Source: ABS, 2013, Program for International Assessment of Adult Competencies Survey, cat. no. 4228.0, Canberra
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Raising language, literacy, and numeracy skills is critical
Recommendations:4.1 – Regular national sample survey assessing LLN of adults based on ACSF4.2 – Fund and develop national public awareness campaign to promote LLN skills4.3 – Fund and develop comprehensive interactive national LLN information service4.4 – Fund Workplace Champion program to promote lifelong learning and workplace training4.5 – Upscale LLN Practitioner Scholarships Program to develop LLN practitioner workforce4.6 – National pilot of foundation skills assessment following evaluation of online LLN assessment models
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Work integrated learning can bridge the gap between education and training and work
Government Industry
Work ready graduates
Formal learning Practical work experience
Providers
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Enabling individuals and the tertiary system to be more adaptive
• facilitate lifelong career developmentCareer advice
• support transition from study and training to workWork ready graduates
• investigate how to best build individuals’ adaptive capacityTraining packages
• support innovation and professional development to develop a flexible, adaptable workforceNew learning paradigm
• improve interface between HE and VET to provide consistency in funding and articulation Integrated tertiary sector
• embed new technologies to reflect international best practiceICT in teaching and learning
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Enabling individuals and the tertiary system to be more adaptive
Recommendations:5.1 – Align and strengthen career development advice services5.2 – Review entitlement systems to ensure responsiveness to change is not limited by restrictions 5.3 – Government, tertiary education providers and industry to collaborate to support transition to work through work-integrated learning and cadetships5.4 – The NSSC and ISCs to investigate how training packages can best build adaptive capacity
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Strengthening quality in the tertiary sector
19992000
20012002
20032004
20052006
20072008
20092010
201140
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
Primary Govt (a) Secondary Govt (a) VET (b) Higher Ed (c)
Commonwealth and state government recurrent expenditure, funding per full-time equivalent student (schools and higher education) and per annual hour (VET) indexed to 1999 (1999=100)
(a) Schools Average Government School Recurrent Costs data. Includes state and territory expenses. (b) VET Government Recurrent Expenditure per annual hour sourced from Productivity Commission, Report on government services, Table 5A.19. Includes state, territory and Commonwealth government expenditure. (c) Published and unpublished higher education data from the Department of Industry, Innovation, Science, Research and Tertiary Education. Operating Grant and Commonwealth Grant Scheme funding only.
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Strengthening quality in the tertiary sector
• Between 2006 and 2010, government real recurrent expenditure on VET increased by 10% but expenditure per student annual hour decreased by 14% during the same period.
• The Productivity Commission found:unlike most of their counterparts in other education sectors, VET teachers, trainers and assessors are ‘dual professionals’, with a range of capabilities variously recognised in either the education or industry spheres
• The background of VET learners is varied and complex. • There has also been a diminished academic focus on VET.• Continue to recommend a new national body and program to
emphasis quality improvement in teaching, learning and assessment.
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Strengthening quality in the tertiary sector
External assessments
for identified high-risk qualifications
externally set and administered
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Strengthening quality in the tertiary sector
Recommendations:6.1 – Commission a review of funding in the VET sector to determine a price for high quality delivery6.2 – NSSC to consider developing additional assessment and registration requirements for identified high risk qualifications 6.3 – Establish a VET equivalent of the Office for Learning and Teaching to drive excellence in VET
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Increased funding is in line with projected long term economic growth
Investing in skills will pay for itself
Industry demand for qualifications
is projected to increase by
between 3% and 3.9% pa
We recommend the expansion of
qualification enrolments by a minimum of
3% pa
Public and private funding for tertiary education needs to expand
by a little more than 3% pa
The benefits far outweigh the cost:•the additional public funding in 2025 projected by AWPA exceeds that in the IGR 2010 projection by $2.1 billion •the additional public revenues from the effect of increased qualifications on labour force participation, employment and GDP is estimated at between $6.7 billion and $24.8 billion
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Investing in skills will pay for itself
Recommendations:7.1 – Extend start-up scholarships to full time VET students receiving income support7.2 – Support expansion of public and private tertiary education funding of at least 3 per cent per annum to meet industry demand and commit further funds to support the implementation of the suite of measures outlined in the strategy
Thank you
@AWP_Agency
www.awpa.gov.au