Alfred Nobel University, Dnipropetrovsk

ANALYZING ECONOMIC TIME SERIES WITH TIME-VARING VOLATILITY AS A WAY OF GLOBAL

MARKET STABILIZATION

Kateryna Bolotova,EE-12

STRUCTURE1. The demand for formation of a new modern theory that

could solve one of the most important problems nowadays, that is the financial crisis.

2. Scientific activity of Robert Engle, a Nobel Prize Laureate in Economics.

3. The contribution of Robert Engle to prediction of the development of all types of markets and prices as a way to protect companies from a financial crisis.

The Cycle of Market Economy

reco

very

recession

peak

trough

Impact of the Crisis on Economic Activity

ROBERT FRY ENGLE ІІІis an American

economist and the

winner of the 2003

Nobel Prize in

Economic Sciences

«for methods of

analyzing economic

time series with time-

varying»

Robert F. Engle receiving

his Prize from King Carl

XV І Gustaf of Sweden at

the Stockholm Concert

Hall, 10 December 2003

Now Robert F. Engle is s Professor with Chair of management of the Financial Department at New York University

Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity

A R C H

MODELS

One of the major tasks of the modern economics is to provide the

analysis and prediction of the development of all types of

markets. The prediction of prices takes a special place in the stock

market because the effectiveness of the managerial decision-

making depends on the prediction obtained.

«The model of Engle has become indispensable not only for

scientists but also for the financial and market analysts, who

use it for property valuation and risk investment»

(the Swedish Academy of Sciences)

HARD WORK

ENGLE’SMETHOD

Engle’s method could help an entrepreneur to be able to analyze economic time series to act

decisively in the right direction

CONCLUSION