agricultural growth in ethiopia (2004-2014): evidence and drivers
TRANSCRIPT
ETHIOPIAN DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Agricultural growth in Ethiopia (2004-2014): Evidence and drivers
Fantu Bachewe, Guush Berhane, Bart Minten, and Alemayehu S. TaffesseIFPRI ESSP
Transformation and vulnerability in Ethiopia: New evidence to inform policy and investmentsGetfam HotelMay 27, 2016Addis Ababa
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1. Introduction • Ethiopia’s economy growing fast • Fast growth by agriculture (7.6% per year)• Important lessons to be learnt• Purpose of the analysis: - Explore the rapid change in Ethiopia’s agriculture (2004-2014)- Provide evidence on changes in adoption of improved technology- Identify major drivers of this modernization process
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2. Growth of agriculture Contribution to crop output growth (2004/05 – 2013/14)
(%)
Labor31%
Land13%
Fertilizer 8%
Improved seeds11%
Returns to scale8%
Rural roads3% ∆ TFP
22%
Others3%
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2. Growth of agriculture
2005
/06
2006
/07
2007
/08
2008
/09
2009
/10
2010
/11
2011
/12
2012
/13
2013
/140
2
4
6
8
10
12area yield
Perc
ent
Growth in area cultivated and yield of grains
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2. Growth of agriculture
Complementary data on yield
Estimates of cereal yield growth from alternative datasets, %
Survey CSA Ad hoc surveys ERHS CSA
Period 2005-2014 2008-2013 2004 – 2009 1997-2012
Number of surveys Annual 8 surveys 2 surveys Annual
Teff 5.8 4.7 1.7 4.2
Maize 6.2 6.2 0.4 3.4
Barley 4.8 6.8 10.1 -
Wheat 5.4 6.3 3.6 4.0
Sorghum 5.4 -1.8 - 4.5
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3. International perspective
Maize and wheat yield levels (mt/ha) and growth rates, selected countries, 2004-2013
Period China Egypt Ethiopia Kenya USAMaize
2004 5.1 7.9 1.6 1.9 10.12013 6.2 7.2 3.2 1.6 10.0
Annual average growth (%) 2.3 -1.0 11.1 -1.8 -0.1
Wheat2004 4.3 6.6 1.5 2.5 2.92013 5.1 6.7 2.4 3.0 3.2
Annual average growth (%) 2.1 0.2 6.8 2.5 1.0
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4. Land intensification
1. Chemical fertilizer
Proportion of cereal farmers using fertilizer and cereal areaapplied with fertilizer
2004
/05
2005
/06
2006
/07
2007
/08
2008
/09
2009
/10
2010
/11
2011
/12
2012
/13
2013
/140
1020304050607080
46.3 47.9
75.6
36.029.5
53.1
Holders (%) Area applied (%)
%
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4. Land intensification
2. Improved seeds
Proportion of improved seed applying farmers (%)Crop 2004/05 2009/10 2013/14
Barley 0.8 1.2 0.8
Maize 11.6 15.7 27.6
Sorghum 0.9 1.8 0.4
Teff 1.0 2.4 4.6
Wheat 4.5 4.1 7.7
Cereals 10.1 11.3 21.5
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5. Drivers for change
1. Identifying drivers
Two criteria used to identify drivers:i. Linked with increased adoption of improved practices ii. Changes over the last decade
• Factors associated significantly with modern input adoption :1. Agricultural extension
2. Connectivity
3. Education
4. Incentives
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5. Drivers for change
2. Evidence on changes in drivers (a) Extension
Extension agent-to-farmer ratio
Ethiopia China Indonesia Tanzania Nigeria India0
5
10
15
20
2521
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64 3 2
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5. Drivers for change(a) Extension
2004
/05
2005
/06
2006
/07
2007
/08
2008
/09
2009
/10
2010
/11
2011
/12
2012
/13
2013
/140
1020304050607080
32.7
50.8 56.263.3
73.6
%
Share of farmers covered through public extension
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5. Drivers for change
(b) Connectivity
Population connected to a city of at least 50,000 people, (%)
1997/98 2006/072010/110%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Access > 10 hours
Access 5 - 10 hours
Access 3 - 5 hours
Access 1 - 3 hours
Access < 1 hour
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5. Drivers for change
Output/fertilizer price ratio
-
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80 Teff Wheat
Barley Sorghum
Maize
(c) Incentives
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5. Drivers for change
Export price indices (right)20
03/0
4
2004
/05
2005
/06
2006
/07
2007
/08
2008
/09
2009
/10
2010
/11
2011
/12
2012
/130.0
0.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.0
Coffee Oilseeds
Pulses Chat
(c) Incentives
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5. Drivers for change(d) Education
• Share of illiterate farmers declined annually at 1.8%
(e) Other factors
• Weather favourable
• Land certification
• Improved risk situation
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6. Conclusions
• Significant changes in Ethiopia’s agriculture in the last decade
• Total output increased more than doubled due to:- Area expansion and an increase in number of farmers - Rapid uptake of improved technologies - Growth in total factor productivity (TFP)
• Drivers of modern inputs adoption multiple
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6. Conclusions
• Issues that need further investigation:i. Yield levels differ across data sources
ii. Cereal output growth higher than consumption growth
iii. Land use changes