1 an overview of the status of agricultural mechanization in the world and the role of bio-fuels by...
TRANSCRIPT
1
An Overview of the Status of Agricultural
Mechanization in the World and the Role of Bio-
fuels
by Dr. Geoffrey C. MremaDirector
Rural Infrastructure and Agro-Industries Division
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)
Rome, Italy
2
Outline of the presentation
• Overview of actual agricultural situation in the World with special reference to the prevailing soaring food prices
• Elements of the FAO’s position on the World food situation
• Future prospective of the renewable energy originating from agriculture
and• Concluding comments
3
Global Food Situation/Crisis The issue of soaring food prices dominates
discussion on current global food situation/crisis.
Soaring food prices caused by Low global stock levels - poor harvests in 2005/06 High energy prices – influence cost of inputs Increased use of grains for bio-energy Increased demand due to changes in diets – due to
economic growth & urbanization Medium term projections are that high prices
will prevail for the foreseeable future.
4
World cereal production: NOT growing enough
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
1999 2001 2003 2005 2006
Mil
lio
n t
on
nes
Coarse grain Wheat Rice Total cereal production
Source: FAOSTAT
5
Cereal stocks
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Mill
ion
tonn
es
China
Source: FAOSTAT
Total stocks
6
World population
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010* 2015* 2020* 2025*
Num
ber
of p
opul
atio
n (m
illio
ns)
World total population World rural population World urban population
Source: FAOSTAT
7
Increased demand due to change in diets Population in Sub-Saharan Africa
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1980 1990 2000 2010* 2020* 2030*
nu
mb
er
of
po
pu
lati
on
(m
illio
ns)
rural population
urban population
Source: FAOSTAT
8
Tractor use by region
-
3
5
8
10
13
15
18
20
23
25
28
30
1980 1990 2000 2003
Nu
mn
er
of
tra
cto
rs in
us
e (
mill
ion
s)
1 - Sub-Saharan Africa 2 - North America3 - Latin America & Caribbean 4 - Asia & Pacific5 - Near East & North Africa 6 - Europe7 - WorldSource: FAOSTAT
1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3 4 5 6
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Tractor use per 1000 ha arable land
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2003
Nu
mb
er o
f tr
acto
rs
1 - Sub-SaharanAfrica
2 - NorthAmerica
3 - Latin America& Caribbean
4 - Asia & Pacif ic
5 - Near East &North Africa
6 - Europe
7 - World
Source: FAOSTAT
1
3
4
5
7
2
6
10
Tractor use per 1000 ha arable land in 1985 and 2003
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Europe NorthAmerica
Near East &North Africa
Asia &Pacific
LatinAmerica &Caribbean
Sub-SaharanAfrica
Worldaverage
Nu
mb
er o
f tra
cto
rs
1985
2003
Source: FAOSTAT
11
Sources of growth in crop production (%)1997/99-2030
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Arable landexpansion (1)
Increases incropping intensity (2)
Harvested landexpansion (1+2)
Yield increases
pe
rce
nta
ge
1 - Sub-Saharan Africa 2 - Near East/North Africa
3 - Latin America and Caribbean 4 - South Asia
5 - East AsiaSource: FAO 2003
1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5
12
0.20 0.26 0.29 0.28 0.27
0.110.05
0.07
0.40 0.75
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1950 1960 1970 1985 1995
Years
kW
/ha
Mechanical andElectrical
Animate Pow er (Humanand animals)
Power availability per hectare in India 1950 - 1995
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Potential for increased use of machinery and implements in agriculture: Europe & North America and parts of Asia
reaching saturation levels: Numbers of agric. tractors peaked => continuous
decline due to use of larger units Trade - more replacement and/or introduction of new
models/features [GPS etc] Potential increased use of new implements due to
environmental concerns – Conservation Agriculture (CA)
Bio-energy crops due to substitution and no new land area brought under cultivation
New manufacturers => global players in the market for machinery and implements
14
Potential for increased use of machinery and implements in agriculture In Latin America and parts of Asia:
Potential for increased use of tractors due to new land or consolidation of farms; replacement of draft animals
New manufacturers’ dominant; their exports to other regions
Bio-energy crops => opening up of new lands especially in Latin America
Environmental friendly practices like CA will spread Agro-industries & super markets may be more
involved in financing of contract agric. production
15
Potential for increased use of machinery and implements in agriculture For Sub-Saharan Africa [SSA]:
Comparatively large scale agric. mechanization projects of the 1960s -70s were not successful
Followed by draft animal traction projects in the 1980s -90s mostly donor funded – limited success
High economic growth rates from 2000 has fueled interest in agric. mechanization:
New suppliers from China; India; Brazil More liberal agric. policies e.g. medium & large farms Increased demand for food due to urbanization Problems which led to failure of earlier projects still
there – low tractor utilization rates; lack of credit etc
16
Potential for increased use of machinery and implements in agriculture –SSA
Chances of repeating mistakes of the 1960s & 70s quite high due to:
new suppliers and new leaders in place reasons of earlier failures not that well documented
FAO quite concerned by this and is: Publishing a new report: Agricultural Mechanization
in SSA: Time for a new look Together with UNIDO convened an Expert Consultation in
Vienna in November 2007; report just out. Follow up activities in 2008/09 link with rural
infrastructure & new financing mechanisms.
17
World primary energy demand for 2005
Oil35%
Biomass and waste10%
Coal25%
Nuclear6%
Gas21%
Hydro2%
Other renewables1%
Source: World Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2007
18
Bio-energy Use of Grains
Ethanol production (billion litres)
0
10
20
30
40
50
1975 1980 1990 2000 2005
bil
lio
n l
itre
s
Source: Global Subsidies Initiative 2007
Biodiesel production (billion litres)
0
2
4
6
8
10
1991 1995 2001 2005 2007
bil
lio
n l
itre
s
19
Trend in demand for transport biofuels and its percentage of total overall energy demand
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1990 2005 2015 2030
Tre
nd
in
bio
fuel
dem
and
(mil
lio
n t
on
nes
of
oil
eq
uiv
alen
t)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Tre
nd
in
bio
fuel
dem
and
% o
f tr
ansp
ort
en
erg
y d
eman
d
Source: World Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2007
20
Recommendations of FAO Expert Consultation on Bio-energy – February 2008
Bio fuel production has:
Important implications to global food security, trade, rural and urban sectors, especially in developing countries
Rapid increase in bio fuel production is largely supported by subsidies in OECD countries
Still many unknowns from technical, policy, ecological, economical, equity and food security perspectives
Need for a globally based information and data clearing warehouse on bio fuels.
BIOENERGY POLICY, MARKETS AND TRADE AND FOOD SECURITY. TECHNICAL BACKGROUND DOCUMENT FROM THE EXPERT CONSULTATION HELD ON
18 TO 20 FEBRUARY 2008. FAO, ROME
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Guideposts for policy development for bio fuel sector
Policies should be more market-oriented and outward looking
Incorporate environmental impacts including land use changes
Promote R&D for improving economic and physical efficiencies for both feedstock production & bio fuel conversion processes
Protect the poor and food insecure – both from food availability and energy perspective
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Conclusions Mechanization will remain an important input in
agricultural production Most regions of the world should reach high levels
of mechanization in the next 2-3 decades Bio fuel production likely to catalyse
mechanization and change the energy situation of the rural areas
New players are likely to attain a more prominent role in supply of agricultural machinery and implements globally
Thank you.