கருத்திட்ட மதிப்பீடு

1

fUj;jpl;l kjpg;gPL

epfo;r;rpj;jpl;l cjtpahsh;fSf;fhd

jpl;lkply; El;gq;fs; fUj;juq;F

tlkhfhz rig

fUj;jpl;lk;

Project

1) %ytsq;fisg; gad;gLj;jp rpy ed;ikfisg; (Mjhaq;fis) ngWtjw;fhd eltbf;iffspd; xU $l;L.

2) xU Fwpg;gpl;l Nehf;if jug;gl;l ghjPl;bd; fPo; Fwpg;gpl;l fhy vy;iyf;Fs; miltjw;fhf vLf;fg;gl;l Vw;ghL (Setup)

2

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Project Cycle

� – Project Idea

� - Project Formulation

� – Project Feasibility

� – Project Appraisal

� – Project Selection

� - Project Implementation

� - Project Operation

� – Project Evaluation

3

IdentificatiIdentificationon

PreparatioPreparationn

AppraisalAppraisal

Negotiation &Negotiation &Board Board

ApprovalApprovalImplementatiImplementationon

Project Project CompletionCompletion

ExEx--post post EvaluationEvaluation

Project Appraisal is the analysis of costs and benefits of a proposed project with a goal of assuring a rational allocation of limited financial resources amongst Investment opportunities with the objective of achieving specific goals.

Project Appraisal is mainly the process of transmitting information accumulated through feasibility studies into a comprehensive form in order to enable the through feasibility studies into a comprehensive form in order to enable the decision maker undertake a comprehensive appraisal of various projects and on a specific project or projects by allocating resources. The various Factors considered by Financial Institutions while appraising a project are: --Technical, Financial, Economic, Commercial, Social and Managerial Factors.

Meaning of Project Appraisal

4

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e.g. :- Financial InstitutionsBanks, National Planning Agencies,International Planning Agencies.

,

– Accuracy– Coverage

– Reality- Assumption

5

– Market

Technical

– Financial

Economical

– Institutional

– Uncertainty

Environment

6

Main types of Analysis

• Technical

• Market

• Financial

• Economic

• Environment

• Social

• Institutional

• Policy and political

• Gender

• Sustainability

COMMERCIAL COMMERCIAL FEASIBILITYFEASIBILITY

TECHNICAL TECHNICAL FEASIBILITYFEASIBILITY

FINANCIAL FINANCIAL FEASIBILITYFEASIBILITY

EconomicalEconomicalFEASIBILITYFEASIBILITY

Institutional Institutional FEASIBILITYFEASIBILITY

No

No

No

No

No

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Final Feasibility Reject, Unattractive Project

Yes

7

Market

,

,

, , ,

,

Technicalgpujhdkhf toq;Fdh; gf;fk; ,J ftdk; nrYj;Jtjhf mikAk;.

nghJthf fUj;jpl;lj;jpd; %yjd kPz;LtUk; nryTfis Fwpj;Jf;

fhl;Ltjhf mikAk;.

fl;lhakhf jpl;lj;jpw;fhd cs;sPL tpgukhfg; guprPypf;fg;gLk;.

cs;sPLfis cl;gLj;jy;/jtph;j;jy; fhuzkhf

kpifkjpg;gPL/Fiwkjpg;gPL vd;gd tUtjw;fhd rhj;jpag;ghL ,jpy;

cs;sJ.

ghtpf;fg;gLk; njhopy;El;gk; rk;ge;jkhf $ba ftdk; nrYj;jg;gLk;.

ghtpf;fg;gLk; njhopy;El;gkhdJ ep&gpf;fg;gl;ljhf mika

Ntz;Lk;.

rpy jpl;lq;fspy; ghPl;rhh;j;j Kiwapy; njhopy;El;gk;

mwpKfg;gLj;jg;glyhk;.

,lk;, Neuk;, gbepiy vd;gtw;wpy; $baftdk; nrYj;jg;gLk;.

8

Financial

,

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tplaq;fs;

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nryT kPl;rp. (eilKiw, guhkhpg;Gr; nryTfis cs;slf;fpaJ)

nryT tpistpd; typikKOtJKilik. (Cost effectiveness)

epjp rhh;ghf ePbj;J epiyf;ff;$bajd;ik.

ntspapypUe;J fpilf;Fk; cjtpfs; epWj;jg;gLk; re;jh;g;gj;jpYk; jg;gpg;gpiof;ff; $ba jpwDilajh vdg; ghh;j;jy;.

9

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ftdpf;fg;gl Ntz;bait

1) Pay Back (PB)

2) Accounting Rate of Return (ARR)(nghUshjhu Kiw rk;ge;jkhdJ)

3) Net Present Value (NPV)

4) Internal Rate of Return

nghUshjhu Kiw rk;ge;jkhd fzpg;gPl;by; vq;nfq;F Neuk; ngWkjpAld; rk;ge;jg;gLfpwNjh

mq;F Discounted Cash Flow DCF gad;gLj;jpf; fzpf;fg;gLk;

Criterion Accept Reject

Non–discounting methods

Payback period (PBP)

Accounting Rate of Return(ARR)

Discounting methods

Net Present Value (NPV)

Internal Rate of Return (IRR)

Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR)

PBP < target period

ARR > target rate

NPV > 0

IRR > cost of capital

BCR > 1

PBP > target period

ARR < target rate

NPV < 0

IRR < cost of capital

BCR < 1

Rules for Decisions

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5) ARR –(Pay Back Period)

,d;iwa xU &gha; ehisa xU &ghia tpl$baJ.

6) FIRR (Financial – IRR)

7) B/C Ration

8) Sensitivity Analysis

Financial and Economic Analysis

Financial AnalysisDefinitionFinancial Analysis evaluates the commercial viability / Profitability of a project from

the point of the owner/enterprise perspective.

ObjectivesObjective is to assess the degree to which a project will generate revenue sufficient

to meet its financial obligation. i.e. meet the O&M and recover the capital cost.

Aspects• Financial Performance/Profitability Owners perspective

• Ability to generate sufficient revenue

• Cost Recovery (including the O&M)

• Cost effectiveness

• Financial Sustainability

• Capability to survive event after the termination of the external assistance.

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How to conduct Financial Analysis

• Estimated Financial Costs

– Investment cost

– O&M Cost

• Estimated Financial benefit

• Cash flow Analysis

• Project Life

• Match the Financial benefit to Financial cost

• Time value of money – Discounting

• Compute NPV, FIRR, B/C ratio, pay back period

• Sensitivity Analysis – risk/uncertainty

Economic AnalysisDefinitionEvaluates the Economic Viability of the project from the country

perspective

ObjectivesAssessment of the impact of the project to the National economy from

a country perspective

Aspects

•Contribution to the aggregate output

•Contribution to the Macro Economic Objectives and Sectoral Objectives

•Socio Economic Impact

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How to conduct Economic Analysis• Estimated Economic Costs

– Investment Cost

– O&M Cost

(Financial Prices to Economic Prices / Shadow pricing)

• Estimated Economic Benefits

• “With” and “Without” Project scenario– Incremental Cost/Benefits

• Cost/Benefits at Constant cash flow profile

• Project Life

• Compare / Match the Economic benefit stream toEconomic cost stream

Economic Criteria

• Net Present Value (NPV)

• Benefit Cost Ratio (B/C Ratio)

• Economic Internal Rate of Return– Opportunity Cost of Capital – 10%

• Sensitivity Analysis

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A Comparison of Financial and Economic Analysis

Financial Economic1. Objective 1. Objective

Commercial Viability/ Impact on the National

ProfitabilityEnterprise EconomyCountry

perspective Perspective

2. Composition of 2. Composition of

Costs/benefits Costs/Benefits

(Financial) Enterprise (Economic) National

perspective Perspective

3. Financial Prices 3. Economic Prices

4. Discount “Weighed 4. DiscountEconomic opportunity

Average Cost of Capital” cost of public funds

nghUshjhug; gFg;gha;TEconomic Analysis

Viability

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Cost

Benefit

/

Opportunity Cost, Shadow Price, Transfer Payment, Border Price, Externalities, Social

Discount Rate

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Opportunity Cost

,

epoy; tpiyShadow Price

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khw;wy; nfhLg;gdTTransfer Payment

(1) Financial

Eg – Repayment of Principals

(2) Fiscal

Eg – Taxes, Duties, Subsidies

Tradeable Goods

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vy;iy tpiyBorder Price

ntspthup tpisTfs;Externalities

18

Rtl;lha;TSWOT Analysis

,, ,

S STRENGTHS ( + )W WEAKNESS ( +O OPPORTUNITIES ( +T THREATS ( +

SWOT Analysis

(That should be (That should be exploited)exploited)

eaknesseakness((Which should Which should

ImprovedImproved))

pportunitiespportunitiesa)a) What opportunities What opportunities

existing the Business existing the Business environment?environment?

b)b) Their inherent ProfitTheir inherent Profit--making Potentialmaking Potential

c)c) The Organization’s ability The Organization’s ability to exploit the worth while to exploit the worth while opportunitiesopportunities

hreatshreats

a)a) What threats might What threats might arisearise

b)b) How will competitors How will competitors affected?affected?

c)c) How will Company be How will Company be affected?affected?

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(That should be exploited)(That should be exploited)

WWeaknesseakness((Which should ImprovedWhich should Improved))

OOpportunitiespportunitiesa)a) What opportunities What opportunities



c)c) The Organization’s ability The Organization’s ability to exploit the worth while to exploit the worth while opportunitiesopportunities

TThreatshreats

a)a) What threats might What threats might arisearise



OOpportunitiespportunitiesa)a) What opportunities What opportunities



c)c) The Organization’s The Organization’s ability to exploit the ability to exploit the worth while opportunitiesworth while opportunities

TThreatshreats

a)a) What threats might ariseWhat threats might arise



Conversion

Conversion

MATCHING

20

r%f murpay; Ma;TSocial Political Analysis

,J rhj;jpats Ma;tpd; NghJ nra;ag;gLk;.

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r%f Ma;T gpd;tUk; tpdhf;fSf;F tpil gfph;tjhf ,Uf;Fk;

fUj;jpl;lkhdJ vg;gbahd r%fj; jhf;fq;fis Vw;gLj;Jk;?

fUj;jpl;lkhdJ vg;gbahd murpaw;; jhf;fq;fis Vw;gLj;Jk;?

fUj;jpl;lj;jpy; r%fj; jhf;fk; vj;jifa jilfis md;wpy; cjtpfis toq;Fk;?

fUj;jpl;lj;jpy; murpay;; vj;jifa jilfis md;wpy; cjtpfis toq;Fk;?

21

epWtdg; gFg;gha;TInstitutional Analysis

jpwikahf jpl;lj;jpid mKy;gLj;Jtjw;Fr; nraw;glTs;s epWtdKiwik gw;wpg; ghh;j;jy; mtrpakhFk;.

fUj;jpl;l mKyhf;fypy; epWtdq;fSf;fhd nghWg;Gf;fs; tiuaWf;fg;gl;bUf;Fk;.

fUj;jpl;lk; mKyhf;fg;gLk; NghJ fUj;jpl;l Kfhikf;FOmjpy; guPl;rakhdjhfTk; jpwikAilajhfTk; ,Uf;fNtz;Lk;. mj;Jld; mth;fSf;F toq;fg;gl;l nghWg;Gf;fSk; gzpr; RikfSk; tiuaWf;fg;gl;bUf;f Ntz;Lk;.

fUj;jpl;lj;jpw;F xU Fwpg;gpl;l fhy vy;iyAk;> nrytPl;bw;fhd gz xJf;fKk; ,Uf;Fk;. jpl;lkhdJmf;Fwpg;gpl;l fhy vy;iyf;Fs; G+hj;;jpahf;fg;gl Ntz;Lk;.

,y;iyNay; mJ xJf;fPl;il kPwpa nryT (Cost -Overrun)vdg;gLk;.

fl;lhakhfg; ngwNtz;ba mDkjpfs;. (Necessary -Approvals)

juF Kyk; Neuj;jpw;Fs; ngwNtz;ba cs;sPLfs;.(Procurement of Inputs In Time)

epWtd xOq;fikg;G (Organization).Nfs;tpahsh;fisj; njupT nra;jy;> epakpj;jy;.kjpAiuQh;fisj; njupT nra;jy;> epakpj;jy;.gy;NtWgl;l epWtdq;fSldhd xUq;fpizg;G(Coordination)

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epiyaw;w jd;ikUncertainty

epiyahdjhf vy;yhk; ,Uf;Fkhapd; jpl;lkpLtJ Rygk;. Mdhy; ,g;gbahd epiy xUNghJk; ,Uf;fkhl;lhJ.epiyaw;w jd;ik rk;ge;jkhf fUj;;jpl;l kjpg;gPl;by; (Appraisal) mtjhdkhf Muhag;gLk;.epiyaw;w jd;ikapd; tpisT Mgj;ij

vjph;nfhs;tjhFk;.epiyaw;w jd;ik vg;nghOJk; vjph;khwhdtpisTfisj; juhJ.KjypLNthh; gpd;tUk; tplaq;fshy; fpilf;Fk; rhjf

epiyiag; nghWj;J jkJ jPh;khdq;fis vLg;gh;.1) Break - even analysis2) Sensitivity analysis3) Risk analysis

Eg: BOO/ BOT jpl;lq;fs;

#oy; Ma;TEnvironmental Analysis

xU jpl;lj;jpd; Ma;tpy; filrpahfguPl;rpf;fg;gLtJ #oy; rk;ge;jkhdMa;thFk;.

,J #oy; jhf;f Ma;T (Environmental Impact Assessment – EIA) vdTk; miof;fg;gLk;.

23

,J gpd;tUk; tplaq;fis cs;slf;fp ,Uf;Fk;.

1) fUj;jpl;lk; rk;ge;jkhd tpguk;.

2) #oy; rk;ge;jkhd tpguk; .

3) vjph;ghh;f;fg;gLk; vjph;khW tpisTfSk;> jzpg;gpw;fhdgupe;JiufSk;.

4) rhjfkhd khw;W Nahridfs;.

5) jzpg;G eltbf;iffspd; nryTfs;> ed;ikfs; rk;ge;jkhd mwpf;iffSk;.

6) epWtd xOq;fikg;G.

7) kf;fspd; gq;fspg;G Kiwfs;.

vy;yh tiff; fUj;jpl;lq;fSf;Fk; ,J mtrpakw;wJ.

gy ngupa fUj;jpl;lq;fs;> fUj;jpl;l kjpg;gPl;bd; gpd; EIA rhjfkhf mikahjjhy; iftplg;gl;lepiyapy; cs;sd.

Eg: Upper Kotmale Hydro Power Project EIA xU jpwikrhypfspd; FO xd;wpdhy; nkJthfr;

nra;ag;gLk;. ,jpy; jug;gLj;jy;> ngWkjpg;gLj;jy; %yk; jhf;fq;fs; fzpf;fg;gLk;.

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