zachary s. azem, m.a

19
October 21, 2021 2022 NHSENATE RACE REMAINS CLOSE DURHAM, NH - NewHampshire residents are divided between incumbent DemocraƟc Senator Maggie Hassan and her possible Republican challengers for the 2022 Senate elecƟon. Current Governor Chris Sununu is the strongest potenƟal challenger, followed by former Senator Kelly AyoƩe and reƟred General Don Bolduc, the only announced Republican candidate in the race. Hassan's popularity in the state conƟnues to decline and for the first Ɵme a majority have an unfavorable viewof her, while Sununu's popularity has also fallen in recent months. These findings are based on the latest Granite State Poll* , conducted by the University of NewHampshire Survey Center. One thousand and sixty-one (1,061) Granite State Panel members completed the survey online between October 14 and October 18, 2021. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 3.0 percent. Included in the sample were 979 likely 2022 general elecƟon voters (MSE = +/- 3.1%). Data were weighted by respondent sex, age, educaƟon, and region of the state to targets fromthe most recent American Community Survey (ACS) conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau, as well as party registraƟon levels provided by the NH Secretary of State and 2020 elecƟon results in NH. Granite State Panel members are recruited fromrandomly-selected landline and cell phone numbers across New Hampshire and surveys are sent periodically to panel members. 2022 U.S. Senate ElecƟon Incumbent DemocraƟc Senator Maggie Hassan is up for reelecƟon in 2022 and is being challenged, at least indirectly, by several well-known Republicans. Republican Governor Chris Sununu has not ruled out challenging Hassan and if he chooses to run, it will be one of the most closely watched races in the country. If the elecƟon were held today, 45%of likely 2022 voters say they would vote for Sununu, 42%would vote for Hassan, 6%would vote for another candidate, and 6%are undecided. Both candidates have overwhelming support fromtheir respecƟve parƟes - 85%of Democrats support Hassan and 86%of Republicans support Sununu while Sununu leads among Independents (63%-25%). The matchup between Hassan and Sununu is unchanged over the past year. Sean P. McKinley, M.A. Zachary S. Azem, M.A. AndrewE. Smith, Ph.D. [email protected] 603-862-2226 cola.unh.edu/unh-survey-center * We ask that this copyrighted informaƟon be referred to as the Granite State Poll, conducted by the University of NewHampshire Survey Center. By: February 2021 July 2021 October 2021 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 5% 2% 48% 46% 2% 1% 49% 48% 6% 6% 45% 42% 2022 U.S. Senate ElecƟon - Hassan (D) vs. Sununu (R) Maggie Hassan Chris Sununu Other Don't know/undecided

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Page 1: Zachary S. Azem, M.A

October 21, 2021

2022 NH SENATE RACE REMAINS CLOSE

DURHAM, NH - New Hampshire residents are divided between incumbent Democrac Senator Maggie Hassan and her possibleRepublican challengers for the 2022 Senate elecon. Current Governor Chris Sununu is the strongest potenal challenger, followed byformer Senator Kelly Ayoe and rered General Don Bolduc, the only announced Republican candidate in the race. Hassan's popularity inthe state connues to decline and for the first me a majority have an unfavorable view of her, while Sununu's popularity has also fallenin recent months.

These findings are based on the latest Granite State Poll*, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. One thousandand sixty-one (1,061) Granite State Panel members completed the survey online between October 14 and October 18, 2021. The marginof sampling error for the survey is +/- 3.0 percent. Included in the sample were 979 likely 2022 general elecon voters (MSE = +/- 3.1%).Data were weighted by respondent sex, age, educaon, and region of the state to targets from the most recent American CommunitySurvey (ACS) conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau, as well as party registraon levels provided by the NH Secretary of State and 2020elecon results in NH. Granite State Panel members are recruited from randomly-selected landline and cell phone numbers across NewHampshire and surveys are sent periodically to panel members.

2022 U.S. Senate Elecon

Incumbent Democrac Senator Maggie Hassan is up for reelecon in 2022 and is being challenged, at least indirectly, by severalwell-known Republicans. Republican Governor Chris Sununu has not ruled out challenging Hassan and if he chooses to run, it will be oneof the most closely watched races in the country. If the elecon were held today, 45% of likely 2022 voters say they would vote forSununu, 42% would vote for Hassan, 6% would vote for another candidate, and 6% are undecided. Both candidates have overwhelmingsupport from their respecve pares - 85% of Democrats support Hassan and 86% of Republicans support Sununu while Sununu leadsamong Independents (63%-25%). The matchup between Hassan and Sununu is unchanged over the past year.

Sean P. McKinley, M.A.Zachary S. Azem, M.A.Andrew E. Smith, Ph.D.

[email protected]

cola.unh.edu/unh-survey-center

* We ask that this copyrighted informaon be referred to as the Granite State Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center.

By:

February 2021 July 2021 October 2021

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

5%2%

48%46%

2%1%

49%48%

6%6%

45%42%

2022 U.S. Senate Elecon - Hassan (D) vs. Sununu (R)

Maggie Hassan

Chris Sununu

Other

Don't know/undecided

Page 2: Zachary S. Azem, M.A

Hassan leads Sununu by 24 percentage points among those aged 18 to 34 while Sununu leads by 17 points among those aged 35 to49 and holds very small leads among those aged 50 to 64 (+7) and those aged 65 and older (+4).Sununu leads Hassan by 25 percentage points among men while Hassan leads Sununu by 17 points among women.Sununu leads Hassan by 25 percentage points among those with a high school educaon or less while Hassan leads by 26 pointsamong those who have completed postgraduate work and by 13 points among college graduates.Sununu leads Hassan by 86 percentage points among those who voted for Donald Trump in 2020 while Hassan leads Sununu by 71points among those who voted for Joe Biden.

••••••

Maggie Hassan Chris Sununu

2022 U.S. Senate Elecon - Hassan (D) vs. Sununu (R) - Difference in Support - October 2021

Overall OVERALL

Age of Respondent

18 to 34

35 to 49

50 to 64

65 and older

Gender ofRespondent

Men

Women

Level of Education

High school or less

Tech school/Some college

College graduate

Postgraduate work

2020 PresidentialVote

Voted for Trump

Voted for Biden

3%

24%

17%

7%

4%

25%

17%

25%

13%

26%

4%

86%

71%

Rered General Don Bolduc, who unsuccessfully sought the Republican nominaon in the 2020 Senate race against Jeanne Shaheen, hasalready announced he will run for Senate against Hassan. Hassan currently is in a ght race with Bolduc - 47% of likely voters say they willvote for Hassan, 42% for Bolduc, 6% prefer another candidate, and 6% are undecided. In July, Hassan led this hypothecal matchup51%-41%.

Eighty-eight percent of Democrats say they would support Hassan and 87% of Republicans would support Bolduc while Bolduc leadsamong Independents (41%-36%).

2022 U.S. Senate Elecon - Hassan (D) vs. Bolduc (R)

February 2021 July 2021 October 2021

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

7%

2%

39%

52%

6%

1%

41%

51%

6%6%

42%

47%

Maggie Hassan

Don Bolduc

Other

Don't know/undecided

Page 3: Zachary S. Azem, M.A

Hassan holds a wide lead over Bolduc (+33 percentage points) among those aged 18 to 34 while Bolduc leads by 13 points amongthose aged 35 to 49. The two candidates are effecvely ed among those aged 50 to 64 and 65 and older.Bolduc holds a small lead over Hassan among men (+9) while Hassan leads Bolduc by 16 points among women.Bolduc leads Hassan by 22 percentage points among those with a high school educaon or less while Hassan holds large leadsamong college graduates (+28) and those who have completed postgraduate work (+35).Bolduc leads Hassan by 85 percentage points among those who voted for Trump in 2020 while Hassan leads Bolduc by 82 pointsamong those who voted for Biden.

••••••

Maggie Hassan Don BolducAge of Respondent

2022 U.S. Senate Elecon - Hassan (D) vs. Bolduc (R) - Difference in Support - October 2021

Overall OVERALL

Age of Respondent

18 to 34

35 to 49

50 to 64

65 and older

Gender ofRespondent

Men

Women

Level of Education

High school or less

Tech school/Some college

College graduate

Postgraduate work

2020 PresidentialVote

Voted for Trump

Voted for Biden

5%

33%

13%

1%

3%

16%

9%

22%

28%

35%

0%

85%

82%

2022 U.S. Senate Elecon - Hassan (D) vs. Ayoe (R)

February 2021 July 2021 October 2021

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

6%3%

42%

48%

3%3%

45%

49%

5%7%

43%44%

Maggie Hassan

Kelly Ayotte

Other

Don't know/undecided

Former Senator Kelly Ayoe, who lost very narrowly to Hassan in 2016, is also seen as a possible challenger. Granite Staters are evenlysplit between Hassan and Ayoe - 44% of likely 2022 voters say they would vote for Hassan, 43% would vote for Ayoe, 7% would votefor another candidate, and 5% are undecided. In July, Hassan was ahead in this hypothecal matchup 49%-45%.

Eighty-eight percent of Democrats say they would support Hassan and 92% of Republicans would support Ayoe while Independents areabout evenly split between the two (34%-32% Ayoe).

Page 4: Zachary S. Azem, M.A

Hassan holds a wide lead over Ayoe (+38 percentage points) among those aged 18 to 34, while Ayoe leads among those aged 35to 49 (+17) and holds very small leads among those aged 50 to 64 (+4) and those aged 65 and older (+7).Ayoe leads Hassan by 15 percentage points among men while Hassan leads Ayoe by 15 points among women.Ayoe leads Hassan by 27 percentage points among those with a high school educaon or less while Hassan holds leads amongcollege graduates (+31) and those who have completed postgraduate work (+21).Ayoe leads Hassan by 87 percentage points among those who voted for Trump in 2020 while Hassan leads Ayoe by 79 pointsamong those who voted for Biden.

••••••

Maggie Hassan Kelly AyotteAge of Respondent

2022 U.S. Senate Elecon - Hassan (D) vs. Ayoe (R) - Difference in Support - October 2021

Overall OVERALL

Age of Respondent

18 to 34

35 to 49

50 to 64

65 and older

Gender ofRespondent

Men

Women

Level of Education

High school or less

Tech school/Some college

College graduate

Postgraduate work

2020 PresidentialVote

Voted for Trump

Voted for Biden

1%

38%

17%

4%

7%

15%

15%

27%

31%

21%

0%

87%

79%

Page 5: Zachary S. Azem, M.A

Governor Sununu's popularity in the state has also fallen in recent months: 41% of New Hampshire residents have a favorable opinionof him, 36% have an unfavorable opinion of him, 23% are neutral, and less than 1% don't know enough about him to say. Sununu's netfavorability rang is +5, down from +13 in September and at its lowest point since October 2016. Sununu is very popular amongRepublicans (+70 net favorability rang) and is unpopular among Democrats (-56) while Independents are divided (-5). Sununu's netfavorability among Independents has fallen considerably since May (+49).

Senator Hassan's popularity connues to slide in the state: one-third (33%) of New Hampshire residents have a favorable opinion of her,51% have an unfavorable opinion of her, 16% are neutral, and less than 1% don't know enough about her to say. Hassan's net favorabilityrang, the percentage who have a favorable opinion minus the percentage having an unfavorable opinion, is -18, down from -6 inSeptember. Hassan is popular among Democrats (+59 net favorability rang) but is unpopular among Independents (-47) and is veryunpopular among Republicans (-86).

May 2015 Feb 2016 Nov 2016 Aug 2017 May 2018 Feb 2019 Nov 2019 Aug 2020 May 2021 Feb 2022

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

51%

0%

14%

36%

7%

23%28%

41%

Sununu (R) Favorability

Favorable

Neutral

Unfavorable

Don't know enough about to say

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

7%

8%

77%

0%

51%

8%

16%

33%

Hassan (D) Favorability

Favorable

Neutral

Unfavorable

Don't know enough about to say

Page 6: Zachary S. Azem, M.A

Thirty-two percent of New Hampshire residents have a favorable opinion of Ayoe, 32% have an unfavorable opinion of her, 24% areneutral, and 12% don't know enough about her to say. Ayoe's net favorability rang is 0, up slightly compared to the past few months.Ayoe is popular among Republicans (+49 net favorability rang) and is unpopular among Democrats (-49) while Independents aredivided (-1).

Despite running for the GOP nominaon for Senate in 2020, Bolduc remains largely unknown in New Hampshire. Only 19% of NewHampshire residents have a favorable opinion of Bolduc, 23% have an unfavorable opinion of him, 20% are neutral, and 39% don't knowenough about him to say. Bolduc's net favorability rang is -4, up slightly compared to the past few months. Bolduc is somewhat popularamong Republicans (+38 net favorability rang) and is unpopular among Democrats (-45) while Independents are divided (-3).

Feb 2009 Aug 2010 Feb 2012 Aug 2013 Feb 2015 Aug 2016 Feb 2018 Aug 2019 Feb 2021

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

8%

32%

7%

32%

40%

12%

24%

45%

Ayoe (R) Favorability

Favorable

Neutral

Unfavorable

Don't know enough about to say

Aug 2019 Nov 2019 Feb 2020 May 2020 Aug 2020 Nov 2020 Feb 2021 May 2021 Aug 2021 Nov 2021

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

12% 19%

74%

39%

4%

23%

10%

20%

Bolduc (R) Favorability

Favorable

Neutral

Unfavorable

Don't know enough about to say

Page 7: Zachary S. Azem, M.A

Granite State Poll Methodology

These findings are based on the latest Granite State Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. One thousandand sixty-one (1,061) Granite State Panel members completed the survey online between October 14 and October 18, 2021. The marginof sampling error for the survey is +/- 3.0 percent. Included in the sample were 979 likely 2022 general elecon voters (MSE = +/- 3.1%).The response rate for the October 2021 Granite State Poll is 29%. The design effect for the survey is 2.5%.

Data were weighted by respondent sex, age, educaon, and region of the state to targets from the most recent American CommunitySurvey (ACS) conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau, as well as party registraon levels provided by the NH Secretary of State and to2020 elecon results in New Hampshire.

The Granite State Panel is part of an effort by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center to invesgate new ways of gathering andunderstanding the opinion of New Hampshire residents. Approximately 6,250 New Hampshire adults were recruited from randomlyselected landline and cell phone numbers to parcipate in the panel. Panelists are then asked to parcipate in online surveys sponsoredby the UNH Survey Center.

The number of respondents in each demographic below may not equal the number reported in cross-tabulaon tables as somerespondents choose not to answer some quesons. Due to rounding, percentages may not sum to 100%.

For more informaon about the methodology used in the Granite State Panel, contact Dr. Andrew Smith at (603) 862-2226 or by emailat [email protected].

% N

Gender ofRespondent

Men

Women

Age ofRespondent

18 to 34

35 to 49

50 to 64

65 and older

Level ofEducation

High school or less

Tech school/Some college

College graduate

Postgraduate work

Region ofState

Central/Lakes

Connecticut Valley

Manchester Area

Mass Border

North Country

Seacoast

Party ID Democrat

Independent

Republican

Ideology Liberal

Moderate

Conservative

VotingRegistration

Registered Democrat

Registered Undeclared/Not Reg.

Registered Republican

2020PresidentialVote

Voted for Trump

Voted for Biden

Voted for other 2020 candidate

Did not vote in 2020

524

505

51%

49%

215

325

224

277

21%

31%

21%

27%

132

218

323

377

13%

21%

31%

36%

154

109

304

150

139

201

15%

10%

29%

14%

13%

19%

417

185

438

40%

18%

42%

303

408

284

30%

41%

29%

302

434

288

30%

42%

28%

36

16

535

459

3%

2%

51%

44%

October 2021 Granite State Poll Demographics

Page 8: Zachary S. Azem, M.A

N

887

1,537

1,671

Don Bolduc Maggie Hassan Other Don't know/undecided

February 2021

July 2021

October 2021 6%6%47%42%

6%1%51%41%

7%2%52%39%

Chris Sununu Maggie Hassan Other Don't know/undecided

February 2021

July 2021

October 2021 6%6%42%45%

2%1%48%49%

5%2%46%48%

N

891

1,537

1,671

2022 U.S. Senate Elecon - Hassan (D) vs. Sununu (R)

If the elecon for U.S. Senate was being held today and the candidates were Maggie Hassan and Chris Sununu, would you vote for...

2022 U.S. Senate Elecon - Hassan (D) vs. Bolduc (R)

If the elecon for U.S. Senate was being held today and the candidates were Maggie Hassan and Don Bolduc, would you vote for...

2022 U.S. Senate Elecon - Hassan (D) vs. Ayoe (R)

If the elecon for U.S. Senate was being held today and the candidates were Maggie Hassan and Kelly Ayoe, would you vote for...

Kelly Ayotte Maggie Hassan Other Don't know/undecided

February 2021

July 2021

October 2021 5%7%44%43%

3%3%49%45%

6%3%48%42%

N

893

1,534

1,670

Page 9: Zachary S. Azem, M.A

Favorability - Maggie Hassan (D)

Below are a list of public figures in New Hampshire. Please indicate whether you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of each ofthem or if you don't know enough about them to say - Senator Maggie Hassan

Favorable Neutral UnfavorableDon't know enough about to

say

October 2011

February 2012

April 2012

August 2012

September 2012

February 2013

April 2013

July 2013

October 2013

January 2014

April 2014

July 2014

October 2014

February 2015

May 2015

July 2015

October 2015

February 2016

April 2016

July 2016

October 2016

February 2017

May 2017

October 2017

February 2018

April 2018

August 2018

October 2018

February 2019

April 2019

August 2019

February 2020

November 2020

December 2020

January 2021

February 2021

March 2021

April 2021

July 2021

August 2021

September 2021

October 2021

8%44%10%38%

0%51%16%33%

6%40%17%37%

8%44%13%36%

4%42%21%32%

5%45%17%32%

3%38%17%42%

4%36%19%41%

6%37%15%42%

4%39%20%37%

15%29%11%45%

12%32%9%47%

17%32%7%43%

15%31%7%46%

12%36%7%45%

16%35%3%46%

17%32%10%41%

17%29%7%47%

9%29%11%50%

12%33%9%46%

10%36%8%47%

10%36%5%50%

11%35%6%48%

8%33%10%49%

10%30%10%50%

14%26%8%52%

11%27%10%53%

10%22%10%58%

11%21%15%53%

14%25%9%52%

12%21%9%58%

13%17%11%59%

14%20%15%51%

19%13%8%60%

20%15%12%52%

19%12%16%53%

28%7%16%48%

35%22%5%38%

72%8%4%16%

81%4%4%10%

77%6%6%11%

77%7%8%8%

N

1,069

1,049

1,786

964

1,934

1,743

1,852

2,015

1,897

770

609

495

546

603

641

498

207

522

571

516

503

767

529

620

684

582

530

567

507

681

664

507

581

661

515

505

578

600

580

531

524

555

Page 10: Zachary S. Azem, M.A

Favorability - Chris Sununu (R)

Below are a list of public figures in New Hampshire. Please indicate whether you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of each ofthem or if you don't know enough about them to say - Governor Chris Sununu

Favorable Neutral UnfavorableDon't know enough about to

say

July 2015

October 2015

February 2016

April 2016

July 2016

October 2016

February 2017

May 2017

October 2017

February 2018

April 2018

August 2018

October 2018

February 2019

April 2019

August 2019

February 2020

May 2020

June 2020

July 2020

August 2020

September 2020

October 2020

November 2020

December 2020

January 2021

February 2021

March 2021

April 2021

May 2021

June 2021

July 2021

August 2021

September 2021

October 2021

5%31%20%44%

0%36%23%41%

4%25%22%48%

6%24%19%51%

0%20%27%53%

3%22%25%51%

1%23%24%51%

3%20%28%49%

0%20%25%55%

0%15%28%56%

0%17%29%54%

0%16%28%55%

1%21%30%48%

0%20%21%58%

1%21%24%55%

1%19%24%56%

1%20%22%58%

0%12%28%60%

9%22%14%55%

10%21%13%56%

10%19%15%56%

13%17%11%59%

12%20%12%56%

16%16%16%52%

21%14%16%49%

14%15%14%56%

13%15%17%56%

14%17%17%52%

22%17%19%42%

24%37%7%32%

36%27%10%28%

40%19%12%28%

43%19%13%25%

42%22%10%26%

51%14%7%28%

N

1,059

1,049

1,790

965

1,600

1,823

1,940

1,740

1,854

2,021

908

1,897

775

1,017

1,873

1,884

993

838

610

496

548

603

640

500

208

519

570

514

502

767

467

618

684

581

530

Page 11: Zachary S. Azem, M.A

Favorability - Don Bolduc (R)

Below are a list of public figures in New Hampshire. Please indicate whether you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of each ofthem or if you don't know enough about them to say - Rered General Don Bolduc

Favorable Neutral UnfavorableDon't know enough about to

say

August 2019

February 2020

May 2020

June 2020

July 2020

August 2020

February 2021

July 2021

August 2021

September 2021

October 2021

37%28%16%19%

39%23%20%19%

50%23%16%11%

42%23%22%13%

46%18%23%13%

48%20%14%18%

54%18%16%13%

61%15%13%11%

65%10%16%9%

73%4%11%12%

74%4%10%12%

N

1,071

1,057

1,783

964

1,841

1,831

1,858

971

832

610

495

Page 12: Zachary S. Azem, M.A

Favorability - Kelly Ayoe (R)

Below are a list of public figures in New Hampshire. Please indicate whether you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of each ofthem or if you don't know enough about them to say - Former Senator Kelly Ayoe

Favorable Neutral UnfavorableDon't know enough about to

say

July 2009

October 2009

February 2010

April 2010

July 2010

September 2010

February 2011

April 2011

June 2011

October 2011

February 2012

April 2012

August 2012

October 2012

February 2013

April 2013

July 2013

October 2013

January 2014

April 2014

July 2014

October 2014

February 2015

May 2015

July 2015

October 2015

February 2016

April 2016

July 2016

October 2016

February 2021

July 2021

August 2021

September 2021

October 2021

13%37%24%26%

12%32%24%32%

15%35%25%26%

14%32%24%29%

14%30%28%28%

9%45%7%39%

11%40%7%42%

12%38%8%41%

13%31%9%47%

15%28%11%47%

19%25%8%48%

19%28%5%48%

19%26%13%43%

22%27%7%44%

17%25%8%50%

15%28%9%49%

18%30%10%43%

20%30%8%42%

19%32%8%41%

16%25%9%50%

14%28%7%51%

19%32%5%44%

18%25%5%53%

22%29%5%43%

23%26%9%42%

18%24%10%47%

18%25%12%45%

19%25%8%49%

21%20%8%51%

19%29%11%41%

30%27%7%36%

41%13%7%38%

44%12%6%38%

49%8%6%37%

40%8%7%45%

N

1,070

1,047

1,788

963

1,850

767

530

619

683

583

530

567

509

679

668

505

582

661

512

505

579

590

577

531

527

554

514

501

520

515

504

508

497

501

556

Page 13: Zachary S. Azem, M.A

Chris Sununu Maggie Hassan OtherDon't

know/undecided

STATEWIDE October 2021 6%6%42%45%

N

891

VotingRegistration

Registered Democrat

Registered Undeclared/Not Reg.

Registered Republican

Party ID Democrat

Independent

Republican

Ideology Liberal

Moderate

Conservative

Media Usage Boston Globe reader

NHPR listener

Union Leader reader

WMUR viewer

Fox News viewer

Conservative radio listener

Local newspapers reader

Age ofRespondent

18 to 34

35 to 49

50 to 64

65 and older

Gender ofRespondent

Men

Women

Level ofEducation

High school or less

Tech school/Some college

College graduate

Postgraduate work

Region ofState

Central/Lakes

Connecticut Valley

Manchester Area

Mass Border

North Country

Seacoast

2020PresidentialVote

Voted for Trump

Voted for Biden

Voted for other 2020 candidate

Did not vote in 2020

7%

8%

2%

8%

10%

0%

7%

33%

94%

79%

49%

4%

6%

5%

7%

6%

7%

7%

2%

25%

85%

86%

63%

2%

7%

7%

3%

7%

1%

11%

1%

48%

84%

84%

45%

2%

4%

7%

6%

5%

11%

4%

2%

16%

6%

10%

7%

18%

7%

0%

49%

5%

8%

42%

30%

59%

86%

31%

82%

75%

46%

41%

31%

11%

11%

3%

5%

7%

1%

4%

3%

21%

42%

43%

37%

48%

46%

50%

55%

24%

10%

3%

4%

7%

51%

32%

34%

58%

2%

5%

9%

6%

4%

2%

2%

13%

60%

53%

42%

28%

34%

40%

46%

54%

7%

2%

9%

8%

6%

1%

7%

6%

4%

3%

1%

16%

46%

48%

47%

51%

26%

38%

40%

44%

40%

38%

66%

45%

4%

10%

7%

5%

14%

6%

7%

89%

1%

79%

1%

7%

76%

8%

87%

270

362

243

360

130

390

263

341

239

193

306

390

661

163

533

56

200

280

210

184

435

427

126

198

280

277

142

72

230

140

126

177

7

15

456

404

2022 U.S. Senate Elecon - Hassan (D) vs. Sununu (R)

Page 14: Zachary S. Azem, M.A

Don Bolduc Maggie Hassan OtherDon't

know/undecided

STATEWIDE October 2021 6%6%47%42%

N

887

VotingRegistration

Registered Democrat

Registered Undeclared/Not Reg.

Registered Republican

Party ID Democrat

Independent

Republican

Ideology Liberal

Moderate

Conservative

Media Usage Boston Globe reader

NHPR listener

Union Leader reader

WMUR viewer

Fox News viewer

Conservative radio listener

Local newspapers reader

Age ofRespondent

18 to 34

35 to 49

50 to 64

65 and older

Gender ofRespondent

Men

Women

Level ofEducation

High school or less

Tech school/Some college

College graduate

Postgraduate work

Region ofState

Central/Lakes

Connecticut Valley

Manchester Area

Mass Border

North Country

Seacoast

2020PresidentialVote

Voted for Trump

Voted for Biden

Voted for other 2020 candidate

Did not vote in 2020

6%

10%

1%

4%

10%

0%

9%

39%

96%

81%

41%

3%

5%

16%

4%

3%

7%

7%

4%

36%

88%

87%

41%

1%

5%

10%

1%

4%

1%

11%

2%

56%

88%

89%

33%

1%

6%

7%

7%

6%

10%

3%

2%

15%

4%

9%

7%

17%

7%

3%

53%

7%

10%

47%

31%

63%

90%

26%

83%

73%

40%

41%

27%

6%

11%

4%

2%

6%

2%

4%

1%

18%

45%

47%

42%

55%

42%

46%

55%

22%

5%

7%

3%

7%

54%

38%

38%

47%

6%

3%

7%

7%

1%

2%

1%

13%

64%

62%

46%

29%

29%

34%

46%

51%

2%

0%

5%

15%

7%

4%

8%

0%

4%

1%

1%

15%

54%

51%

50%

53%

33%

39%

36%

48%

41%

31%

59%

42%

1%

57%

4%

7%

12%

6%

5%

96%

2%

86%

2%

3%

29%

4%

86%

265

363

243

356

131

390

266

333

239

192

303

387

657

162

538

56

200

272

214

184

439

419

126

199

284

269

142

73

225

140

126

176

7

15

456

400

2022 U.S. Senate Elecon - Hassan (D) vs. Bolduc (R)

Page 15: Zachary S. Azem, M.A

Kelly Ayotte Maggie Hassan OtherDon't

know/undecided

STATEWIDE October 2021 5%7%44%43%

N

893

VotingRegistration

Registered Democrat

Registered Undeclared/Not Reg.

Registered Republican

Party ID Democrat

Independent

Republican

Ideology Liberal

Moderate

Conservative

Media Usage Boston Globe reader

NHPR listener

Union Leader reader

WMUR viewer

Fox News viewer

Conservative radio listener

Local newspapers reader

Age ofRespondent

18 to 34

35 to 49

50 to 64

65 and older

Gender ofRespondent

Men

Women

Level ofEducation

High school or less

Tech school/Some college

College graduate

Postgraduate work

Region ofState

Central/Lakes

Connecticut Valley

Manchester Area

Mass Border

North Country

Seacoast

2020PresidentialVote

Voted for Trump

Voted for Biden

Voted for other 2020 candidate

Did not vote in 2020

3%

10%

1%

4%

14%

0%

7%

37%

96%

86%

39%

3%

3%

15%

4%

3%

18%

7%

2%

32%

88%

92%

34%

1%

5%

8%

0%

7%

3%

11%

1%

51%

88%

87%

39%

1%

5%

7%

4%

4%

5%

4%

2%

18%

6%

11%

8%

16%

6%

3%

51%

5%

8%

44%

30%

62%

82%

27%

82%

77%

44%

48%

28%

13%

6%

5%

2%

8%

2%

4%

1%

21%

43%

43%

40%

55%

50%

47%

57%

16%

5%

5%

6%

7%

52%

36%

37%

51%

2%

6%

7%

4%

1%

5%

3%

13%

58%

60%

45%

28%

38%

29%

45%

56%

5%

0%

6%

8%

5%

4%

7%

4%

1%

12%

15%

52%

51%

48%

50%

31%

38%

37%

49%

42%

42%

53%

43%

8%

51%

4%

5%

12%

6%

8%

89%

4%

84%

0%

3%

34%

6%

87%

273

362

242

364

130

389

266

341

238

193

310

394

665

162

537

56

200

280

213

184

439

426

125

198

283

277

142

73

232

140

126

176

7

15

455

408

2022 U.S. Senate Elecon - Hassan (D) vs. Ayoe (R)

Page 16: Zachary S. Azem, M.A

Favorable Neutral UnfavorableDon't know enoughabout to say

STATEWIDE October 2021 0%51%16%33%

N

1,049

VotingRegistration

Registered Democrat

Registered Undeclared/Not Reg.

Registered Republican

Party ID Democrat

Independent

Republican

Ideology Liberal

Moderate

Conservative

Media Usage Boston Globe reader

NHPR listener

Union Leader reader

WMUR viewer

Fox News viewer

Conservative radio listener

Local newspapers reader

Age ofRespondent

18 to 34

35 to 49

50 to 64

65 and older

Gender ofRespondent

Men

Women

Level ofEducation

High school or less

Tech school/Some college

College graduate

Postgraduate work

Region ofState

Central/Lakes

Connecticut Valley

Manchester Area

Mass Border

North Country

Seacoast

2020PresidentialVote

Voted for Trump

Voted for Biden

Voted for other 2020 candidate

Did not vote in 2020

1%

0%

85%

59%

6%

9%

14%

22%

6%

27%

72%

0%

0%

1%

89%

61%

11%

8%

24%

20%

3%

15%

69%

1%

0%

90%

45%

16%

8%

17%

21%

1%

37%

63%

0%

0%

0%

0%

1%

46%

87%

82%

49%

64%

33%

8%

11%

7%

10%

13%

11%

16%

20%

43%

6%

8%

38%

25%

50%

72%

1%

1%

47%

55%

59%

42%

12%

7%

10%

34%

41%

37%

30%

24%

0%

0%

44%

59%

16%

14%

40%

27%

0%

1%

1%

34%

39%

45%

67%

14%

16%

23%

11%

52%

44%

31%

22%

0%

1%

0%

1%

0%

1%

45%

39%

54%

40%

64%

56%

16%

12%

18%

19%

11%

16%

38%

48%

28%

40%

26%

27%

2%

4%

0%

0%

20%

88%

18%

91%

49%

7%

21%

8%

29%

1%

61%

1%

302

431

278

417

185

426

303

406

273

195

327

433

742

167

578

61

215

325

222

267

512

505

132

216

312

377

153

109

294

150

139

201

36

16

523

459

Favorability - Maggie Hassan (D)

Page 17: Zachary S. Azem, M.A

Favorable Neutral UnfavorableDon't know enoughabout to say

STATEWIDE October 2021 0%36%23%41%

N

1,049

VotingRegistration

Registered Democrat

Registered Undeclared/Not Reg.

Registered Republican

Party ID Democrat

Independent

Republican

Ideology Liberal

Moderate

Conservative

Media Usage Boston Globe reader

NHPR listener

Union Leader reader

WMUR viewer

Fox News viewer

Conservative radio listener

Local newspapers reader

Age ofRespondent

18 to 34

35 to 49

50 to 64

65 and older

Gender ofRespondent

Men

Women

Level ofEducation

High school or less

Tech school/Some college

College graduate

Postgraduate work

Region ofState

Central/Lakes

Connecticut Valley

Manchester Area

Mass Border

North Country

Seacoast

2020PresidentialVote

Voted for Trump

Voted for Biden

Voted for other 2020 candidate

Did not vote in 2020

0%

0%

13%

29%

68%

13%

28%

23%

73%

42%

9%

0%

0%

0%

8%

37%

63%

14%

30%

29%

78%

33%

8%

0%

0%

12%

35%

67%

9%

26%

26%

79%

38%

7%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

41%

14%

14%

33%

33%

41%

56%

28%

14%

23%

24%

27%

29%

29%

31%

71%

63%

43%

40%

29%

15%

0%

1%

0%

32%

27%

30%

52%

21%

23%

19%

29%

47%

50%

50%

19%

0%

0%

42%

29%

23%

23%

35%

48%

0%

1%

42%

34%

34%

36%

20%

22%

19%

26%

38%

43%

46%

37%

0%

1%

0%

0%

0%

27%

43%

45%

46%

22%

28%

19%

15%

17%

11%

45%

34%

54%

42%

38%

43%

33%

39%

1%

0%

0%

39%

21%

60%

9%

37%

16%

29%

15%

23%

63%

11%

76%

302

432

278

417

185

426

303

406

273

195

327

433

742

167

578

61

215

325

222

267

512

505

132

216

312

377

153

109

294

150

139

201

36

16

523

459

Favorability - Chris Sununu (R)

Page 18: Zachary S. Azem, M.A

Favorable Neutral UnfavorableDon't know enoughabout to say

STATEWIDE October 2021 39%23%20%19%

N

1,057

VotingRegistration

Registered Democrat

Registered Undeclared/Not Reg.

Registered Republican

Party ID Democrat

Independent

Republican

Ideology Liberal

Moderate

Conservative

Media Usage Boston Globe reader

NHPR listener

Union Leader reader

WMUR viewer

Fox News viewer

Conservative radio listener

Local newspapers reader

Age ofRespondent

18 to 34

35 to 49

50 to 64

65 and older

Gender ofRespondent

Men

Women

Level ofEducation

High school or less

Tech school/Some college

College graduate

Postgraduate work

Region ofState

Central/Lakes

Connecticut Valley

Manchester Area

Mass Border

North Country

Seacoast

2020PresidentialVote

Voted for Trump

Voted for Biden

Voted for other 2020 candidate

Did not vote in 2020

29%

45%

40%

7%

20%

46%

24%

20%

11%

40%

16%

3%

28%

53%

42%

4%

11%

47%

26%

28%

10%

42%

8%

1%

26%

44%

45%

1%

30%

40%

25%

16%

14%

48%

10%

1%

48%

30%

38%

36%

48%

33%

22%

28%

6%

8%

26%

23%

34%

61%

14%

27%

19%

20%

15%

19%

11%

10%

37%

35%

17%

14%

13%

5%

40%

37%

19%

55%

27%

24%

27%

16%

13%

23%

20%

22%

20%

16%

34%

8%

40%

36%

23%

23%

19%

21%

18%

20%

36%

30%

36%

47%

31%

36%

23%

13%

22%

19%

16%

23%

12%

15%

25%

18%

33%

26%

43%

40%

37%

43%

32%

21%

23%

32%

11%

19%

15%

28%

16%

16%

36%

17%

20%

25%

19%

12%

16%

21%

59%

64%

43%

30%

1%

7%

43%

3%

39%

14%

14%

26%

1%

14%

0%

42%

302

430

288

417

185

435

303

405

283

195

327

443

750

167

576

61

214

324

222

277

521

504

130

216

323

377

153

109

303

149

139

201

36

16

531

459

Favorability - Don Bolduc (R)

Page 19: Zachary S. Azem, M.A

Favorable Neutral UnfavorableDon't know enoughabout to say

STATEWIDE October 2021 12%32%24%32%

N

1,047

VotingRegistration

Registered Democrat

Registered Undeclared/Not Reg.

Registered Republican

Party ID Democrat

Independent

Republican

Ideology Liberal

Moderate

Conservative

Media Usage Boston Globe reader

NHPR listener

Union Leader reader

WMUR viewer

Fox News viewer

Conservative radio listener

Local newspapers reader

Age ofRespondent

18 to 34

35 to 49

50 to 64

65 and older

Gender ofRespondent

Men

Women

Level ofEducation

High school or less

Tech school/Some college

College graduate

Postgraduate work

Region ofState

Central/Lakes

Connecticut Valley

Manchester Area

Mass Border

North Country

Seacoast

2020PresidentialVote

Voted for Trump

Voted for Biden

Voted for other 2020 candidate

Did not vote in 2020

4%

14%

14%

18%

26%

62%

22%

30%

14%

57%

31%

10%

4%

26%

14%

12%

23%

58%

24%

33%

20%

61%

19%

9%

3%

18%

13%

15%

31%

55%

26%

22%

22%

56%

28%

10%

11%

3%

4%

7%

5%

9%

4%

29%

16%

14%

32%

21%

41%

57%

38%

27%

28%

26%

41%

23%

23%

22%

55%

54%

35%

33%

27%

16%

4%

5%

7%

31%

30%

35%

31%

33%

24%

26%

20%

23%

42%

35%

42%

13%

10%

12%

37%

27%

25%

24%

28%

37%

7%

11%

8%

17%

44%

44%

36%

17%

20%

24%

28%

23%

29%

21%

29%

42%

8%

1%

17%

12%

15%

11%

48%

37%

31%

37%

23%

23%

23%

19%

23%

20%

24%

33%

21%

43%

30%

31%

38%

33%

38%

2%

18%

2%

3%

16%

50%

16%

56%

59%

20%

24%

3%

23%

12%

57%

302

430

278

416

185

426

303

405

273

194

326

432

740

167

577

61

214

325

222

267

511

505

131

216

311

377

153

109

294

150

139

200

36

16

523

458

Favorability - Kelly Ayoe (R)