yves page trace co-ordinator

26th June 2008

A Conclusion to TRACE

Yves PageTRACE Co-ordinator

TRACE – eIMPACTConference

26th June 2008Paris, France

TRACE – eIMPACT - Final Conference

TRACE – eIMPACT - Final Conference 26th June 2008

A conclusion to TRACE

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33 Reports

TRACE Outcomes



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The Invisible Hand

Adam Smith, the Absent-minded (1723 – 1790)An inquiry into the nature and the causes of the Wealth of nations, 1776

• According to Adam Smith, the ‘Market laws’, combined with the selfish nature of economic agents lead to an unexpected result:

Social Harmony• Individual interests lead to competition

and competition makes individuals producing what the society needs



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Social harmony demands ‘visible hands’

• The injuries and the crashes are preventable

• This requires a continuous up-date of accident research oriented towards:

– Diagnosis of the remaining problems (nature and magnitude)

– Evaluation of the impact of safety actions, and among them, technology

• These were the TRACE Objectives



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Have we completed ourobjectives ?



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Question 1: Why, when, where, how, to whom does it happen?

Formal Norm

Customs

Conventions

Reference Group / Peer Group

Social Pressure

Relation to the Rule

Social Role

SociodemographicsAge / Gender / Education level

Professional Situation

Social StatusHabitus

Ethnic background

Cultural Bias“reward of risk”

Life style

DriverVehicle A

DriverVehicle B

Relationship Interaction

“what happened?”

EnvironmentSituation /

Specific context

Cultural Bias “Speed culture”



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Genetics

Function

Teleology

Ontology

Crash

Components (human / vehicle /road)

A cybernetic approach

MotivationFailure

Sequence of events



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Production of human failures: the driver

Pre-Crash sitation

Explanatory Factors

Endonenous Functional Failures Exogenous

Subsequent Situation

Crash

Source : Van Elslande



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Question 2: To what extent these (generic) safety applications address real user’s and especially drivers’ needs ?

- The selected functions cover a priori 85 % of drivers’ needs.

- But, if we take into account the contextual constraints of the crash, these applications have a 52 % capacity to compensate for drivers needs

- Applications with the highest power to compensate for drivers’ needs are …. the same ones as the ones assessed with the ‘effectiveness method’



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= - 70 % Serious Injuries

Compared to only

Question 3: Are many lives would be saved and how many injuries would be avoided if the fleet is 100 % fit with these applications?



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Question 3: Are many lives would be saved and how many injuries would be avoided if the fleet is 100 % fit with these applications?

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18

Dynamic SuspensionPredictive Assist Braking

Advanced Adaptive Front light SystemRear Light Brake Force Display

Tire Pressure Monitoring and Warning (*)Cornering Brake Control (*)

Intersection Control (*)Drowsy Driver Detection System

Alcolock Key (***,#)Lane Changing Assistant (*)

Blind Spot Detection (*)Night Vision

Lane Keeping Assistance (*)Traffic Sign Recognition (*)

Collision WarningCollision Avoidance

Advanced Adaptive Cruise ControlAdvanced Automatic Crash Notification

Intelligent Speed Adaptation (**)

Reduction in Serious Injuries (%)Reduction in Fatalities (%)



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Most Promising safety applications

Intelligent Speed adaptation

Automatic Crash Notification

Crash avoidance and warning



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Have we achieved ourchallenges ?



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Research Challenges

• A Diagnosis of traffic safety problems at the European Level

– Accident generating process revisited– EU27 level difficult to achieve for in-depth analysis

• Evaluation of the most promising technologies : ex ante and ex post

– 3 current applications assessed: high benefits expected– 19 applications not-yet on the market (or close to) assessed: additional

benefits expected to be lower– Need to explain ‘non intuitive’ results



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Research Challenges

• Methodological improvements in Human Factors analysis and Statistical Analysis applicable in Accident Research

– Lots of innovations– The HMI issue has not been fully solved– Applicability needs experienced specialists

• Rely on a set of various accident and exposure to risk databases

– Practicable, but with a lot of efforts– Harmonisation of databases still preferable

• Results usable for crash and injury prevention– Inference of actions from the drivers needs exploration– Additional criteria (client value, costs, brand identity– These are crash prevention actions for wealthy nations: other problems with

different magnitude arise in other parts of the world

yves page trace co-ordinator

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