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A local resident greets advancing rebel fighters on the outskirts of Tripoli

WTPVWAR, TERROR & POLITICAL VIOLENCE

BRIEFINGTABLE OF CONTENTS

Transnational terrorism 2

Profile: London riots 3

Worldwide political violence 4AfricaAmericasAsiaEuropeMiddle East and North Africa

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REBEL ADVANCE SIGNALS NEW PHASE IN LIBYA CONFLICT The situation in the capital Tripoli remained unclear on 23 August after opposition forces on 21-22 August appeared to take control of large swathes of the city. Rebels met little initial resistance and their advances were reportedly supported by a degree of indigenous uprisings. The status of ruler Col Muammar al-Gadhafi remains subject to speculation, though reports that his son Saif al-Islam al-Gadhafi had been arrested proved incorrect. The traditional loyalist bastions of Sirte and Sebha reportedly remain under government control.

While the extent of the opposition’s control over Tripoli is still unclear, a significant proportion of the capital is beyond the control of Gadhafi loyalists. The opposition’s gains represented the most noteworthy shift in the conflict since the imposition of a NATO no-fly zone over the country in in March, while the government’s position has been significantly and seemingly decisively undermined.

It is unclear whether resistance to the rebel advance represents a co-ordinated campaign by the government. Key loyalist figures and their associated military units remain unaccounted for. However, loyalist elements will, at least in the short term, continue to resist, though their appetite to fight appears limited. Reports indicate a growing number of defections.

The immediate post-Gadhafi scenario is likely to involve the formation of a fractured transitional government with limited territorial control and influence, and a relatively devolved power structure. The removal of the unifying influence of Gadhafi will be likely to highlight tensions between the various, diffuse armed militias and political leaderships throughout the country. However, while an outright collapse into large-scale, sustained violence is unlikely, such a scenario should not be discounted.

SEPTEMBER 2011

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BANGLADESH ARRESTS

The security forces on 18 August arrested the suspected acting leader of the banned Islamist extremist organisation Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami Bangladesh (HuJI-B), Maulana Mohammad Yahiya, along with two other suspected militants. The men were detained at a security checkpoint in Kishoreganj district (Dhaka division), approximately 55 miles (90km) north-east of the capital Dhaka.

The arrests are a reminder of the latent risk of terrorism in Bangladesh. The country remains home to domestic extremist groups such as HuJI-B, the Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB), and Hizb-ut-Tahrir Bangladesh (HTB). It is also a base for some Indian separatist insurgent elements, as well as a transit point and smuggling route for a range of regional militant groups, including some from Pakistan. Although there has not been a significant attack in the country linked to Islamist extremists since 2006, militants have previously targeted individuals and symbols of authority, such as secular politicians, government buildings and courts.

Previously, the security forces on 3 and 4 August arrested three suspected JMB members in the Agargaon, Badda and Mirpur areas of the capital. The raids came after five alleged members of HTB on 27 July had been arrested in the city. The following day, the security forces recovered arms, detonators and 28lbs (13kg) of explosives from Gazipur district (Dhaka division).

ISRAEL ATTACKSEight people were killed and around 30 others injured on 18 August in co-ordinated militant attacks on vehicles and security personnel near the southern city of Eilat. IsraelI forces responded with air strikes on militant positions in the Gaza Strip (Palestinian Territories),

reportedly killing at least seven people. Israeli forces reportedly also accidentally killed three Egyptian security personnel in retaliatory raids. The following day, rockets were fired from Gaza into the Israeli cities of Ashkelon, Beerheva and Kiryat Gat, injuring six people.

The methodology and co-ordinated nature of the attacks denotes a break from recent patterns

of militant activity in Israel. Although militants have recently fired rockets from the Sinai peninsula towards Eilat, the extensive co-ordination, infiltration of Israeli territory and use of improvised explosive devices in conjunction with small and medium-sized arms points to a greater degree of sophistication. However, the incidents are unlikely to presage a sustained campaign of militant attacks. Leading Palestinian factions Fatah and Hamas are keen to avoid outright hostilities with Israel, as this would undermine the Palestinian campaign to achieve international recognition of statehood at the UN General Assembly in September.

Rockets fired from the Gaza Strip landed near the Israeli coastal city of Ashdod

Al-QAIDA IN YEMENAt least 12 people, including local officials, were killed on 21 August in two suicide-bomb attacks in the southern province of Abyan. Officials subsequently stated that main domestic extremist group al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) had claimed responsibility for the attacks. Previously, at least nine people were killed and 21 others injured on 24 July when a car bomb detonated outside the gate of an army base in the al-Mansoura district of the southern port city of Aden. The government accused AQAP of responsibility.

The attacks have exacerbated fears that AQAP and other militant groups may have consolidated their position in the south, taking advantage of the security forces’ preoccupation with the protest campaign against the regime. However, regime critics claim that extremist groups have been given increased freedom of action, allowing the government to curry favour with the US and other Western governments by claiming that it should remain in place to combat a terrorist threat extending beyond the country’s borders.

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UNREST

The riots in London and in many areas of the country in early August were the most significant to have occurred in the UK since the summer of 1981. Although smaller-scale outbreaks of unrest occur from time to time in low-income districts of major cities, they have usually been contained relatively swiftly.

What began as a peaceful community protest over the killing of a young alleged gang member in the north London area of Tottenham on 6 August quickly escalated into violence and opportunistic bouts of looting and vandalism. These predominantly flared in deprived districts of London and other major cities (including Bristol, Birmingham, Manchester, Liverpool and Nottingham), as looters of varied race and age profiles used social-networking media to outmanoeuvre the unprepared police. With the exception of some incidents in more affluent areas of London, the unrest took place in districts with low relative incomes and low education standards.

Relative calm returned on 10 August, helped by rain and lower temperatures in much of the country, but also by an improved police response compared with the first few nights of the trouble. Although tensions remain elevated, sporadic vigilantism is more likely to spark off future incidents than further co-ordinated actions.

FANNING THE FLAMES

Media coverage played a role in fanning the flames of the unrest. The fact that the disturbances started in London gave extra initial impetus to the coverage, which would have taken much longer to reach saturation levels had the flashpoint occurred in another city. Without 24-hour television news to engrain the images in the popular consciousness, and social media to spread rumours of wider disturbances (many of them false), the impression of the ‘UK on fire’ would have been more likely to have been perceived as merely a series of local difficulties.

IMPLICATIONS

The speed with which images of burned-out buildings gripped the media and raised awareness of the riots suggests that arson may play an increased role in violent protests in the coming months. Animal-rights extremists have long valued arson as a means of generating increased media coverage, and other extremists are likely to follow suit. Anti-capitalism groups are the most likely organisers of the type of demonstrations that could lead to arson, and would consider arson a viable tool. Although fires will not now spring up on the sidelines of non-violent protests, arson is likely to be a feature of disorder as and when it occurs.

Concerns over investment and the viability of policing the Olympic Games in London in 2012 are inevitable, but nonetheless are probably exaggerated in the short term. The cancellation of several football (soccer) matches during the riots was prudent, but the unrest is likely to prove exceptional and unlikely to cause lasting damage to the UK’s image, save for the obvious propaganda fodder it has given to countries such as Iran. Most European countries experience urban unrest at some point – witness France in 2005 – and, though this takes different shapes from country to country, the overall effect on the investment climate is typically minimal.

Commercial premises were set alight in the north London suburb of Tottenham

Profile:London riots

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Africa

Burundi: An army officer was killed and five people were injured on 10 August when unidentified assailants ambushed a convoy in the district of Gihanga (Bubanza province), 13 miles (21km) north of the capital Bujumbura.

Liberia: One person was injured on 18 August when youth activists threw stones at Assistant Information Minister for Culture Jacqueline Capehart in the capital Monrovia. The attack came a day after unknown assailants attacked the residence of Lenn Eugene Nagbe, the deputy campaign manager for President Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf.

Nigeria: Suspected members of the Boko Haram Islamist extremist sect on 19 August killed four people, including three police officers, at a private residence in the Borno state capital Maiduguri. The incident came four days after a a suicide car-bomb attack targeted the police headquarters in Maiduguri.

Senegal: Clashes between supporters of the ruling Democratic Party and young opposition protesters broke out on 29 July in the western city of Touba during a visit by President Abdoulaye Wade. Police used batons and tear gas to separate the two groups.

Uganda: The authorities on 10 August fired tear gas to disperse thousands of supporters of the main opposition Forum for Democratic Change who had gathered in Masaka (Central Uganda region) to commence nationwide protests against the price of commodities.

KEY DATE20 Sep - Zambia: Presidential and parliamentary elections are due to take place amid heightened security.

Americas

Chile: Student groups on 11 August clashed with the police in the capital Santiago during nationwide demonstrations over education reforms. Police used tear gas and water cannon to disperse the protesters, who had erected roadblocks near the Metropolitan Technological University campus.

Colombia: An unidentified armed group on 17 August kidnapped three Colombian employees of Petroseismic, a subcontractor of state oil company Ecopetrol, between Barracabermeja and Puerto Wilches in Santander department. Both the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia and the National Liberation Army leftist guerrilla groups are known to operate in the area.

Honduras: Hundreds of students on 15 August clashed with the police in the capital Tegucigalpa during a protest against a proposed law, which activists claim is an attempt to privatise the education sector. Several injuries and arrests were reported.

Trinidad and Tobago: Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar on 21 August declared a limited state of emergency in crime ‘hot spots’ across the country. The declaration followed a 48-hour period during which 11 people had been killed in shooting incidents and will reportedly provide the security forces with special powers.

KEY DATE11 Sep - Guatemala: Government officials and local non-governmental organisations have warned of rising levels of violence in the run-up to nationwide elections.

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Asia

Afghanistan: Suicide bombers and gunmen on 19 August attacked the office of the British Council, a partly British government-run agency that runs mainly cultural programmes, in the capital Kabul. The Interior Ministry confirmed that nine people were killed and ten others injured in the attack, for which the Taleban claimed responsibility.

East Timor: More than 100 houses and several vehicles were set on fire on 15 August amid unrest in the southern town of Zumalai (Cova Lima district). The unrest occurred as a martial arts gang rioted following the alleged stabbing of a gang member believed to be a police intelligence agent.

India: Suspected members of the militant separatist Garo National Liberation Army on 16 August killed a truck driver and a maintenance worker in South Garo Hills district (Meghalaya state). Elsewhere in the north-east, at least five people were killed and four others injured on 1 August in an explosion in Imphal, the capital of Manipur state.

New Caledonia: Four people were killed and 23 others injured on 8 August during unrest on the island of Maré (Loyalty Islands province). Violence flared as local residents attempted to evict protesters who had occupied Maré Airport during demonstrations against increased air fares.

Sri Lanka: A youth leader of the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress party was killed and five others were injured on 12 August in clashes between local residents and police in the eastern town of Pottuvil. The security forces also fired tear gas to disperse demonstrators in the eastern coastal town of Thirukkovil.

TO WATCHBurma: Further political visits outside the capital Rangoon (Yangon) by National League for Democracy (NLD) leader Aung San Suu Kyi could draw large crowds, potentially resulting in orchestrated attacks by the government against both her and the NLD.

In-depth

AFGHANISTANThe attack on the British Council in the Karte Parwan district of Kabul on 19 August highlights the continuing volatility of the capital’s security environment – Kabul remains a permissive environment for terrorist activity and the Taleban retains the capacity to launch attacks across the city, including against Western targets. The security environment remains precarious for foreign personnel and is unlikely to improve in the next six-to-12 months.

If the Taleban’s claim of responsibility is confirmed, the attack would indicate that the group remains able to conduct

complex operations in central Kabul. The group has also claimed responsibility for an attack on the Hotel Inter-Continental (not part of the Intercontinental Hotels Group) in the city on 29 June, though sources within the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) believe that the Haqqani network, which is operationally distinct from the Taleban, carried it out.

Recent attacks may indicate a partial shift in militant targeting towards civilian targets associated with foreign interests, in addition to an existing focus on local and international security forces, and institutions associated with the Afghan government. The Taleban has little incentive to decrease the intensity of its campaign ahead of the impending drawdown of ISAF troops in 2014.

Precise information on the sequence of the attacks on 19 August is currently unavailable. However, the main assault appears to have been preceded by a lone

suicide bombing at a police checkpoint at a square in western Kabul in the early hours of the morning. This was quickly followed by the detonation of a vehicle-borne improvised explosive device at the gate of the British Council compound, allowing militants to enter the building. Up to nine gunmen, armed with machine guns and rocket-propelled grenades, conducted the assault. Further explosions occurred within the compound some hours after the initial attack.

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Europe

TO WATCHGreece: Strikes over the government’s austerity plan are likely to re-emerge in the coming weeks. Demonstrations accompanying strikes have the potential to turn violent.

Italy: Clashes between hundreds of protesting immigrants and the police broke out on 1 August near an immigration centre in the south-eastern city of Bari; 35 people were injured, including several bystanders. Police used tear gas and water cannon to disperse the demonstrators, who set fire to rubbish bins, blocked roads and occupied the railway station.

Kosovo: A police officer on 26 July was killed at the Brnjak border-crossing during a clash between ethnic Serbs and the Kosovo Police Service (KPS)’s Rosa special police unit. The KPS had been ordered to secure the crossing to enforce the government’s ban on imports from Serbia.

Russia: Explosions inside and outside a supermarket in Makhachkala, the capital of Dagestan, on 21 August injured 21 people and caused extensive material damage. The first blast was detonated via mobile (cellular) telephone; the second took place at the side of the road outside the supermarket.

Sweden: The authorities on 17 August deployed additional police personnel to the north-eastern Angered suburb of the city of Gothenburg (Vastra Gotaland county) following rioting by local youths. Protesters threw petrol bombs at police, vandalised two police vehicles and set fire to another car in Angered. Disturbances were also reported in the city’s northern Backa district.

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Middle East and North Africa

TO WATCHSudan: Continued violence is likely in the state of Southern Kordofan in the absence of an agreement between the government and the rebel Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North.

Algeria: The authorities on 14 August confirmed that 33 people, including 21 civilians, had been injured in a suicide-bomb attack outside a police station in the northern city of Tizi Ouzou (Tizi Ouzou province, Kabylie region), around 65 miles (105km) east of the capital Algiers. The explosion, which occurred in the early hours of the morning, caused significant damage to the police facility and nearby buildings.

Iraq: A series of bomb attacks on 15 August killed up to 89 people and injured more than 300 others across the country. The co-ordinated explosions occurred in predominantly Shia areas including the cities of Kut, Najaf and Karbala, as well as Sunni-majority areas such as Baqouba and Tikrit.

South Sudan: More than 100 people, including women and children, on 18-19 August were reportedly killed and several others injured in clashes between members of the Murle and Lou Nuer tribes in the eastern Uror region. The violence began in the early hours of 18 August, when Murle attackers raided Lou Nuer villages located around the town of Pieri.

Syria: The regime continued its crackdown on protesters across the country in August amid growing international condemnation and co-ordinated calls from Western countries for President Bashar al-Assad to stand down. At least 20 people were reportedly killed on 17-18 August during protests in Latakia, Homs and Hama.

Turkey: Reports on 17 August indicated that eight soldiers had been killed and several others injured when an improvised explosive device detonated near the south-eastern district of Cukurca (Hakkari province). The Kurdish nationalist Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) was suspected of responsibility for the attack.

In-depth

TURKEYThe militant Kurdistan Freedom Falcons (TAK) on 21 August warned that it would carry out attacks against civilian and tourist targets – in addition to targeting the security forces – in response to continuing Turkish military air strikes against Kurdish militant bases in northern Iraq.

The statement in itself is not indicative of an imminent threat of attacks. The group has issued similar warnings in the past in response to Turkish military operations in northern Iraq, while the TAK is not

thought to be capable of conducting either large-scale attacks or a sustained campaign in urban centres. As such, one-off, low-intensity bomb attacks are likely to pose the main security threat.

The TAK’s most common targets include military and police personnel or installations, though the group is also suspected of carrying out several small-scale attacks against the tourism industry in 2005-06, and more recently for a suicide-bomb attack in Taksim Square in Istanbul. It is also thought to have been behind a recent explosion near a shopping centre in the residential Etiler district of Istanbul.

Despite the risk of sporadic attacks in urban centres, Kurdish militant activity is likely to remain focused on the south-east and in particular on attacks against the security forces. Several high-profile attacks against the security forces in

the south-east since mid-July have exacerbated communal tensions and triggered intense cross-border air strikes against PKK bases in northern Iraq.

Variations in the levels of PKK activity can be partly explained by seasonal variations – the onset of the spring and summer months facilitates PKK movement across the mountainous border areas where the group maintains its strongholds. A further factor is a lack of progress in efforts to resume negotiations over Kurdish cultural and political rights.

wtpvwar, terror & political violence wtpv sept 11.pdfrockets were fired from gaza into the...

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