wtpv - curie wtpv dec.14.pdf · wtpv briefing war, terror political violence december 2014 in...

WTPVBRIEFINGWAR, TERROR & POLITICAL VIOLENCE

december 2014

in depth: north africa

pakistan: militant threat to india

israel: west jerusalem attack

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Four people were killed and at least eight others were injured on 18 November in an attack on a synagogue in the Har Nof district of West Jerusalem. Police killed two suspected Palestinian or Israeli Arab assailants who had attacked worshippers with axes, knives and a pistol. Palestinian Islamist groups Hamas and Islamic Jihad praised the attack, though the Palestinian Authority condemned it. Israeli Prime minister binyamin Netanyahu vowed to respond with a ‘firm hand’.

Initial reports suggested that the perpetrators may have been affiliated with the Abu Ali mustafa brigades, the military wing of far-left nationalist group the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP), which claimed responsibility for the killings. The PFLP has been behind numerous attacks on Israeli interests, including plane hijacks in the 1970s, suicide bombings during the 2000-05 intifada (Palestinian uprising), and rocket attacks from the Gaza Strip between 2008 and 2011. However, the group’s capabilities appear to have diminished significantly in recent years, and the rudimentary nature of the synagogue attack suggests that this remains the case.

This is at least the fifth militant attack in Israel and east Jerusalem within a month, but the first in Jewish-majority West Jerusalem. However, the strengthening of Israel’s security framework over the past decade is likely to prevent a re-emergence of the frequent and lethal suicide bombings that characterised the 2000-05 intifada in the coming months.

The attack reflects elevated communal tensions, which will continue to drive militancy and social unrest in the coming months. The main trigger for the increased insecurity is the dispute over access to Jerusalem’s Temple mount, where Jews are currently forbidden from praying. Grievances over the July-August conflict between Israel and Palestinian militant groups in Gaza, and the expansion of Jewish settlements in east Jerusalem, have compounded tensions.

cover story: israel attack 2

transnational terrorism 3

in-depth: islamic state and north africa 4-5

Global incidents 6-9

taBle of contents

Tensions over access to Temple mount have been a driver of renewed tensions in Jerusalem

israel: four dead in west jerusalem synaGoGue attack

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transnational terrorism

Unidentified assailants late on 17 November killed at least three people in the Kisauni district of the coastal city of mombasa following an earlier police raid on the musa and Sakina mosques, both of which are accused of having links to Somali Islamist extremist group al-Shabab. The police raid resulted in the arrests of more than 200 people and the death of one suspected militant, who reportedly threw a grenade at police. Police reportedly recovered eight grenades, a pistol, six bullets and machetes. extremist literature and videos in support of former al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden and Kenyan clerics accused of links to al-Shabab were also discovered.

The police raid underlines Islamist militants’ continued intent to stage high-profile terrorist attacks in mombasa. Police claim that the raids came in response to information regarding a planned attack. Potentially involving simultaneous smaller attacks throughout the city, attacks are likely to focus on government and security infrastructure, as well as crowded ‘soft’ targets such as hotels, shopping centres (malls), transport hubs or entertainment venues. business facilities are comparatively less likely to be targeted.

The killings highlight rising insecurity stemming from persistent tensions between the government and the muslim community in the coastal region, and are likely to have represented retaliation for police action. The security forces have a history of violently targeting predominantly muslim individuals and communities suspected of having ties to al-Shabab. Popular resentment of this tactic is likely to continue to facilitate the recruitment of Kenyan youths into al-Shabab or its local affiliates.

Further similar attacks are likely in mombasa in the coming months in the likely event of further police operations. A similar raid on the musa mosque in February prompted riots that resulted in the deaths of two people.

pakistan: india threat reflects shiftinG militant alliances

kenya: police raid reflects continued terrorism threat

militant group Jamaatul Ahrar (JA) – an offshoot of the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP – Pakistan Taliban) – on 4 November threatened to carry out attacks in India and elsewhere in the region. The group issued the statement after claiming responsibility for a suicide bomb attack on 2 November. The attack targeted a paramilitary rangers checkpoint at the Wagah border-crossing between India and Pakistan, killing at least 60 people.

The development highlights shifting alliances among Pakistan’s militant groups. by claiming a regional agenda, JA is likely to be seeking to distinguish itself from the TTP, which is focused on overthrowing Pakistan’s government and targeting the military. The group is also likely to be trying to attract recruits with diverse ideological goals, including those who oppose India or are inspired by the regional mandate of extremist groups such as Islamic State.

JA’s focus on India is likely to be opportunistic and possibly a response to alarm caused by the Wagah attack. more significantly, it it also indicates growing links between JA and Punjab-based anti-India militants. The Punjabi Taliban – which has historically been active in the disputed Kashmir region but has fought alongside the TTP in recent years – in September announced that it would focus on Afghanistan. disaffected anti-India militants may be seeking new alliances with groups willing to target Indian assets.

Pakistani security forces and religious minorities are likely to remain the primary targets of JA attacks. JA commanders hail from the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) along the border with Afghanistan, and have not carried out attacks in disputed Kashmir or within India. Although the group may seek ties with anti-India militants, its fighters are likely to continue to focus on security installations and religious minorities in the FATA, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, balochistan and major cities.

Paramilitary troops stand guard outside a Lahore hospital following the attack

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in-depth: north africa

overview: islamic state spreads its winGs

The seismic ramifications of Sunni extremist group Islamic State’s (IS) rapid advances in Iraq and Syria are being felt particularly strongly in North Africa. militant groups in Algeria have pledged allegiance to the group after beheading a French national, while derna in north-eastern Libya has recently been declared an IS ‘province’. citizens of North African countries also constitute one of the largest blocks of foreign fighters currently in Syria and Iraq (with an estimated 3,000-plus from Tunisia and around 1,500 from morocco). in egypt, the country’s leading militant group formally pledged its allegiance to IS in November.

eGypt: ansar Beit al-maqdis

A statement on what is believed to be the official Twitter account of Islamist extremist group Ansar beit al-maqdis (Abm) on 10 November said that the group had pledged allegiance to IS. The same Twitter account on 4 November had denied a previous report that the group had done so.

Although Abm initially appeared to be loosely affiliated with al-Qaida and its leader Ayman al-Zawahiri, the pledge of allegiance appears to formalise what had been growing but nevertheless still loose ties between Abm and IS. The egyptian authorities had previously indicated that the groups had become loosely linked through their connections with egyptian militants based in Libya. News agency Reuters, quoting a member of Abm, in early September reported that IS had been advising the egyptian group on its operations, while the two groups have repeatedly issued messages of praise for each other this year. Abm in 2014 has appeared to seek to emulate IS’ tactics to attract attention and support from IS sympathisers, for example by carrying out and publicising numerous beheadings. The group in February claimed responsibility for a fatal attack on a tourist bus in the Sinai Peninsula.

meanwhile, state media citing the egyptian military on 13 November reported that gunmen in fishing boats had fired on an egyptian navy vessel around 45 miles (70km) north of damietta, starting a fire on-board. The attack reportedly injured five navy servicemen, while eight others were reportedly missing at sea. Four gunmen were killed when the ship returned fire and up to 32 others were arrested. militants have been able to carry out several large-scale attacks against the security forces in recent months. Abm’s pledge of allegiance to IS is likely to further boost its capabilities and increase the threat that it poses to foreign interests.

Ansar beit al-maqdis claimed responsibility for a fatal bomb attack on a tourist bus in the Sinai Peninsula in February

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Jund al-Khilafah (‘Soldiers of the caliphate’) on 24 September released a video on the internet showing its militants beheading French national Hervé Gourdel. The group had kidnapped the mountaineering guide on 21 September in Tizi Ouzou province in the north-eastern Kabylie region, and threatened to kill him if France did not halt airstrikes against IS positions in Iraq.

The organisation, whose full name is Jund al-Khilafah fi Ard al-Jazair (‘Soldiers of the caliphate in the Land of Algeria’), in early September announced its split from al-Qaida in the Islamic maghreb (AQIm) and professed its allegiance to IS. AQIm is Algeria’s main domestic extremist group and is affiliated to the so-called al-Qaida ‘core’, headed by Ayman al-Zawahiri, from which IS split last year. Little is currently known about the group, though it is reportedly headed by former regional AQIm commander Khaled Abu Suleimane. According to an unnamed source quoted in local newspaper El Watan, the group has no more than 50 members.

alGeria: french journalist Beheaded

Three civil society activists on 11 November were discovered beheaded in the town of derna, in eastern Libya. All three had been prominent critics of Islamist groups that control the city, including the Islamic Youth Shura council, the Abu Slim martyrs brigade and offshoots of Ansar al-Sharia. Islamist groups in the town have voiced support for IS, declared derna to be part of an Islamic caliphate and imposed strict Sharia (Islamic law).

Islamist groups in derna on 5 October pledged alliance to IS and the group’s leader, Abu bakr al-baghdadi, and declared derna to be IS’ ‘barqa province’. A large number of local Islamist groups made a further declaration in late October. Local media and control risks’ sources have indicated that an IS emir – a Yemeni militant called mohammed Abdullah (known as Abu al-baraa el-Azdi) – has been appointed to lead the town.

Growing levels of violence and radicalisation among Islamist groups in the north-east reflect the impact of the continuing conflicts in Iraq and Syria. A number of Islamists from derna and benghazi have fought in the Syrian civil war, and many current fighters from Iraq and Syria return to the region for respite from the fighting. This has given local groups increased operational capabilities, as well as an increasingly extreme ideology.

liBya: local Group declares islamic state ‘province’

Algerian military vehicles search for French national Hervé Gourdel, who was executed by Jund al-Khilafah in September

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GloBal incidents

Two policemen and at least two passengers were killed on 5 November when a bomb exploded on a train at menouf train station (35 miles (55km) north of the capital cairo) in the Nile delta province of menoufiya. The following day, a bomb exploded in a train carriage at the el marg metro (subway) station in northern cairo, injuring three people. Another small-scale bomb attack outside the Qubba presidential palace lightly injured one person.

eGypt

colomBiaSuspected members of the leftist revolutionary Armed Forces of colombia (FArc)’s 21st Front on 12 November killed two soldiers in rural chaparral municipality (Tolima department). col Helbert Velasco of the National Police said that the ambush had come in response to the arrests on 7 November of four members of the 21st Front.

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Police on 6-7 November arrested four men in separate raids in and around the capital London as part of a counter-terrorism operation relating to an alleged terrorist plot. One of the detainees was previously suspected of intending to travel to Syria to join Sunni extremist group Islamic State (IS).

uk

Prime minister Thomas Thabane and King Letsie III on 9 November cancelled public engagements following intelligence reports of an assassination plot against Thabane. The police said that they were investigating reports that Nigerian and Ghanaian mercenaries had entered Lesotho.

lesotho

The Taliban on 18 November claimed responsibility for an attack earlier in the day on a security compound housing foreign contractors in the capital Kabul. The attackers used a suicide truck bomb to force their way into the compound, following which two armed militants entered the facility. The armed militants and two Afghan security guards were killed in the ensuing gunfight.

afGhanistan

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GloBal incidents

Guatemala

Bangladesh

côte d’ivoire

africa

americas

asia

Assailants armed with machetes and improvised explosive devices on 2 November attempted to storm the Nyali military barracks in mombasa; six attackers and a soldier were killed in ensuing clashes.

nigeriaA police spokesman on 10 November said that a suicide bomb attack at the Government Science Secondary School in Potiskum (Yobe state) had killed 47 students and injured 79 others. A suicide bomber dressed as a student reportedly targeted the school’s morning assembly.

kenya

disaffected members of the military on 18 November erected barricades and blockaded streets in several cities across the country to protest against payment arrears and overdue benefits. The protests were largely peaceful, but soldiers blocked access to the second-largest city bouaké.

Burkina fasoPresident blaise compaoré on 31 October stepped down after the army said that it was taking power following a popular uprising. Protesters on 30 October ransacked several state buildings and homes of senior politicians ahead of a vote on amending the constitution to allow compaoré to stand for re-election.

chadUniversity students and local residents on 11 November protested in the capital Ndjamena, moundou (Logone-Occidental) and Sarh (moyen-chari) against high living costs and rising fuel prices. The security forces reportedly killed four people and injured several others during the protests

Interior minister mauricio López on 12 November said that eight National Police officers had been injured and 13 other people arrested during a second day of nationwide protests by indigenous groups.

colombiaArmy general ruben dario Alzate was kidnapped on 16 November while visiting a village near the city of Quibdó (chocó department). The government blamed the kidnap on the leftist guerrilla revolutionary Armed Forces of colombia, and cancelled negotiations that had been scheduled to begin on 17 November.

Indian authorities in late October said that Indian intelligence had uncovered an alleged plot by the bangladesh-based Harkat-ul-jihad al-Islami bangladesh militant Islamist group to assassinate Prime minister Sheikh Hasina during a rally in August.

myanmarAt least 22 rebels were killed and a number of others were injured on 19 November during clashes between the military and the separatist Kachin Independence Army near Laiza (Kachin state).

philippinesLocal media on 19 November reported that the military had arrested 14 suspected members of the Islamist extremist Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) in Sulu, south-western mindanao. The arrests came amid intensified military operations against ASG following deadly clashes earlier in the month.

chinaHong Kong police on 19 November reportedly arrested four people as dozens of pro-democracy Occupy central movement protesters attempted to break into the Legislative council and scuffled with police officers in Admiralty district.

pakistanmore than 60 people were killed and 110 others were injured on 2 November in a suicide bomb attack at the Wagah border-crossing on the outskirts of Lahore. militant groups Jundullah and Jamaatul Ahrar – offshoots of the Pakistan Taliban – separately claimed responsibility for the attack.

mexico

demonstrations over a lack of progress in an investigation into the 26 September abduction of 43 trainee rural teachers in Iguala (Guerrero) spread across the country in early-to-mid-November. Protesters, mainly trainee rural and public school teachers, erected road blockades and carried out violent acts in Guerrero, michoacán, Oaxaca, chiapas and Veracruz states.

haitiProsecutor Kerson darius on 18 November stated that one person had been shot dead and several others had been injured during anti-government protests in the capital Port-au-Prince. The government and the opposition accused each other’s supporters of responsibility for the incident.

argentinaAt least 15 people, including two police officers, were injured on 13 November in clashes between activists and the security forces in the city of San Salvador de Jujuy (Jujuy province) during demonstrations over public-sector salaries.

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azerbaijan

europe

middle east and north africa

Azerbaijan’s armed forces on 13 November shot down an Armenian helicopter flying in the area of the so-called ‘line of contact’ separating Azerbaijani and Armenian forces in the vicinity of Nagorno-Karabakh.

russia

polandmore than 260 people were arrested and several were seriously injured on 11 November in the capital Warsaw after far-right protesters clashed with police during a nationalist march to mark Independence day.

franceSeveral cities, including the capital Paris, experienced outbreaks of unrest in late October following the death of an environmental protester during clashes with police at the site of a proposed dam construction at Sivens, north-east of the south-western city of Toulouse.

egyptAt least five police officers were injured on 20 November when a homemade explosive device detonated near a security checkpoint at Helwan University (cairo governorate); the Islamist extremist Ajnad misr (Soldiers of egypt) group claimed responsibility. for the attack.

libya

Three people were killed on 16 November when a suicide car bomber detonated his device on Airport road in the capital baghdad near the main entrance to baghdad International Airport.

israel/palestinian territories

The Shin bet security agency on 20 November said that it had arrested four Palestinians near bethlehem who had been plotting to assassinate the country’s foreign minister. most of the alleged plotters were reportedly members of Palestinian Islamist movement Hamas.

iraqTwo bombs detonated near the egyptian and UAe embassies in the capital Tripoli on 13 November. Initial reporting indicated that no one had been injured in the attacks but that several buildings near the egyptian embassy had been damaged.

saudi arabiaIslamic State (IS) leader Abu bakr al-baghdadi on 13 November reportedly called on his supporters to carry out attacks on Saudi Arabia. In an audio recording published on social media, baghdadi also apparently announced his plan to expand the group into Saudi Arabia and other regional countries.

ukraineThe authorities on 17 November said that six soldiers and three police officers had been killed in the previous 24 hours during clashes in parts of Luhansk province. In the city of donetsk, heavy shelling was reported around the now defunct donetsk International Airport.

Authorities in the North caucasus republic of chechnya announced that four heavily armed militants had been killed on 17 November during a battle with federal forces near Sernovodsk, the administrative capital of the republic’s Sunzhensky region.

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wtpv - curie wtpv dec.14.pdf · wtpv briefing war, terror political violence december 2014 in...

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