APRIL 2009Table of contents

Transnational terrorism 2

Profile: The southern Philippines 3

Worldwide terrorist activity 4AfricaAmericasAsiaEuropeMiddle East and North Africa

In-depth 8

Coming up 9

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YEMEN

A suicide bomber on 18 March targeted a convoy of South Korean nationals as they travelled along the airport road in the capital Sanaa, killing only himself; uncon rmed reports suggest that the South Korean ambassador to Yemen was in the convoy. The South Korean personnel were in Yemen to investigate an attack on 15 March in which four South Koreans were killed. The incidents are likely to point to an increased level of sophistication among domestic extremists and highlight their improved capability to plan and execute co-ordinated attacks.

The security situation in Yemen may deteriorate further in 2009 because of a range of factors, including increasing challenges to the government’s already limited authority, al-Qaida’s renewed focus on Yemen as a key area of operations, and the demonstrated intention of militants to attack lightly defended targets. In addition, the security forces are overstretched because of a uprising in the north, a persistent regionalist campaign in the south and tribal unrest in areas east of Sanaa. While there is a countrywide risk of terrorism, attacks have generally been concentrated in Sanaa, Marib, Aden, Hodeidah, Hadhramaut and Shabwah provinces. In addition to shooting and bomb attacks, suspected surveillance of foreigners has also been reported in Sanaa.

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Protesters in Seoul burn images of Osama bin Laden following attacks on South Korean nationals in Yemen

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Transnational groups and Islamist extremism

A message purportedly featuring the voice of Osama bin Laden renewed calls for jihad in Iraq and against Israel

AMSTERDAM PLOT

Police on 12 March arrested seven people on suspicion of planning bomb attacks on several buildings, including stores belonging to two multinational retailers, in the capital Amsterdam. Initial reports indicated that all those detained were Dutch nationals of North African origin, though it subsequently emerged that at least two of the suspects only held Moroccan citizenship. The suspects were released on 13 March because of a lack of evidence.

The government’s pro-US stance and signi cant role in the con ict in Afghanistan, combined with the country’s reputation for social liberalism, have made it a potential target for Islamist extremism; the threat has been accentuated by the highly publicised release of Dutch parliamentarian Geert Wilders’ controversial lm Fitna in 2008, which criticised the Koran. The country also has a signi cant Muslim population which contains a number of extremist groups. Despite this, however, the risk of a successful major terrorist attack remains low. The government maintains strong counter-terrorism capabilities, the anti-terrorist police have been active in disrupting potential plots and surveillance of militant groups has been suf cient to mitigate the risk.

‘AL-QAIDA’ MESSAGE

Arabic-language television news network al-Jazeera on 14 March released an audiotape purporting to feature Osama bin Laden in which the al-Qaida leader apparently criticised ‘moderate’ Arab states’ such as Jordan and renewed calls for jihad (holy war) against coalition forces in Iraq and against Israel. While the tape has not been authenticated, it would – if proved to be genuine – suggest that al-Qaida is seeking to capitalise on Israel’s 2008-09 offensive in the Gaza Strip (Palestinian Territories) to advance its campaign against Middle Eastern governments that recognise Israel, such as Jordan and Egypt. If genuine, the tape would also show that al-Qaida’s core remains intact despite setbacks over the past 12 months. A sharp reduction in violence in Iraq since mid-2007 and intensi ed US operations on the Afghanistan-Pakistan border have blunted, though not eliminated, al-Qaida’s propaganda campaign. However, even with its core activities suppressed, the risk of self-radicalising cells drawing inspiration from al-Qaida remains pertinent to many countries in the Middle East, Europe and Africa.

KUWAIT ARREST

Local media on 24 February reported that the security forces had arrested an alleged al-Qaida operative after he had entered the country from Iran. Kuwaiti police claimed that the man – whom they had reportedly been tracking for some time – was responsible for recruiting militants in Kuwait and other Gulf states to ght in Afghanistan. The detainee – referred to in local media reports as MSAA but who is believed to be a former military of cer – reportedly provided the Kuwaiti security forces with names of ghters that he had sent to Afghanistan, as well as other intelligence about al-Qaida’s operations in the Gulf. He is thought to have been arrested after entering Kuwait on a false passport.

While Kuwait’s porous borders with Iraq increase its vulnerability to in ltration and weapon-smuggling, and the presence of large numbers of foreign personnel and interests provides a range of attractive targets, the arrest highlights the fact that Kuwait serves more as a recruiting ground for transnational militants than as a theatre for extremist operations. Nevertheless, security sources concur that Islamist extremist activity has been reduced but not been eliminated in Kuwait, and that a resurgence remains possible at some stage; barring any new intelligence, the most likely source of a successful attack would appear to be a foreign rather than domestic group.

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Profile: Terrorist activity in the southern Philippines

Members of the Armed Forces of the Philippines inspect the site of an explosion in CotabatoNegros Occidental, Samar, southern Mindanao and the Caraga region. The group has the capacity to carry out damaging attacks against military and other government targets in remote areas, but there is no prospect of the communist insurgency overthrowing the government.

The Abu Sayyaf was formed during the early 1990s as part of the evolving global jihadist movement. Loosely organised, the group has insurgent, criminal and terrorist elements, and cells throughout the south. It espouses radical Islamist internationalism and has carried out bombings, kidnaps, assassinations and extortion, as well as a recent spate of kidnaps in Basilan and Jolo. The group has also been listed as a terrorist organisation by the US. However, the group is only thought to have a few hundred operatives following recent intensive military offensives that were supported by the US.

OUTLOOK

There have been a number of bomb attacks on Mindanao following the collapse of negotiations to expand the ARMM in August 2008. Most recently, an explosion on 3 March at a Cotobato hotel injured two employees, while an explosion near an amusement arcade on 4 March injured four people. In another attack on 3 March, three people were killed and another was injured in a bombing in the ARMM town of Buldon (Maguindanao province). Further attacks against transport hubs, shopping centres (malls) and government and security force buildings remain likely.

INTRODUCTION

An explosion in the early hours of 22 March, which caused minor damage to a bus terminal in the south-western city of Cotabato, the regional centre of the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM), highlighted the persistent risks posed by Islamist separatist activity in south-western Mindanao. Insurgent groups, most notably the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) and the Islamist extremist Abu Sayyaf group, have previously targeted government buildings and security personnel, in addition to crowded public spaces. Such groups have also attacked and kidnapped expatriates and tourists in the region.

THE MILF

With 12,500 ghters located mainly in southern Mindanao, the MILF has been ghting an Islamist separatist insurgency against the government for nearly four decades; however, both sides have been loosely observing a cease re that was restored in 2003. Malaysian-brokered talks aimed at reaching a permanent agreement continue, but have been jeapordised by the suspension in August 2008 of negotiations to expand the ARMM and by increasing low-intensity clashes on Mindanao between the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) and the MILF.

The death of the MILF’s conservative founding leader, Hashim Salamat, in July 2003 paved the way for the rise of military commander Murad Ebrahim, whose supporters favour a more pragmatic approach to negotiations with the government and a return to an emphasis on the MILF’s sovereignty agenda and Moro ethnicity, rather than its Islamist credentials. However, the suspension of the talks brought rebel MILF commanders back into the open, leading to violence in several Christian villages that would have been ceded to the ARMM under any deal. Peace talks remain suspended amid demands by the Department of National Defence that the MILF hand over two of its commanders.

THE COMMUNIST INSURGENCY

Other groups posing a threat to the security environment in the south include the Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP), which together with its military wing – the New People’s Army (NPA) – and political arm the National Democratic Front (NDF) make up the communist movement, which has been waging a war against the government for almost 40 years. Although the military claims to have reduced the number of villages nationwide in which the NPA has a presence, the group claims that its forces can still move freely in up to 80% of the country. NPA activity is concentrated in Bicol,

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AFRICA

Cameroon: At least 30 unidenti ed gunmen on 15 March reportedly abducted one Ukrainian and three Filipino nationals in an attack on an oil supply vessel. The incident occurred around nine miles (15km) off the coast of the Bakassi peninsula, near the border with Nigeria.

Eritrea: Two people were killed on 25 February and eight others injured when a bomb exploded at a restaurant in the western city of Haikota, approximately 140 miles (220km) west of the capital Asmara. No group claimed responsibility.

Ethiopia: According to uncon rmed reports, a rebel militia on 7-8 March attacked an Ethiopian National Defence Forces (ENDF) convoy travelling through the Somali region.

Guinea-Bissau: President João Bernardo Vieira was assassinated on 2 March. The incident occurred one day after military Chief of Staff Gen Tagme Na Wai had been killed in a bomb attack on the military’s headquarters.

Sierra Leone: At least 17 people were reportedly injured on 14 and 15 March in clashes between rival supporters of the opposition Sierra Leone People’s Party (SLPP) and the ruling All People’s Congress (APC) in the capital Freetown.

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Worldwide terrorist activity

Terrorism Other political violence Warnings/arrests

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AMERICAS

Bolivia: Around 300 people on 7 March seized the weekend residence of prominent government opponent and former vice-president Victor Hugo Cardenas in Sank’ajawira, on the shores of Lake Titicaca.

Canada: Protesters vandalised stores and threw stones and recrackers, injuring two police of cers, during a rally in Montréal (Québec province) on 15 March to mark International Day Against Police Brutality (IDAPB).

Chile: A previously unknown group called ‘Sabotaje Hemanos Vergara Toledo’ on 10 March attacked railway lines belonging to freight company Fepasa in the town of Quilicura, ten miles (17km) north of the capital Santiago.

Dominican Republic: At least four people, including a police of cer, were injured on 3 March during clashes between police and anti-government protesters in Santiago de los Caballeros (Santiago province).

Peru: One soldier was killed and two others were injured on 28 February in clashes with members of the Shining Path guerrilla group in the Vizcatan area of Ayacucho region.

ASIA India: At least one person was killed and seven others injured on 10 March in clashes between members of the Hindu and Muslim communities in the Faridpur area of Bareilly district in the northern state of Uttar Pradesh. Several vehicles and a number of shops were set on re during rioting following a religious procession to mark the Muslim festival of Eid Milad-un-Nabi.

Pakistan: At least nine people were killed and several others injured on 16 March in a suicide bomb attack on Peshawar Road near the Pir Wadhai Chowk (circle), in the Ghousia Adda area of the garrison city of Rawalpindi. No group claimed responsibility for the attack.

In a separate incident, suspected Islamist extremists on 3 March attacked the Sri Lankan cricket team in Lahore, injuring six players and a coach (a British national) and killing at least six Pakistanis, mostly members of the security forces. The attack took place as the team and its security convoy travelled towards the Gadda stadium in the city.

Sri Lanka: At least 15 people were killed and another 60 injured on 10 March in a suicide attack near the Jumma Mosque in the southern town of Akuressa (Matara district). The attack occurred on a national holiday marking Milad-un-Nabi. The government accused the Liberation Tigers of the Tamil Eelam (LTTE) of responsibility for the attack.

Bangladesh: The security forces on 3 March said that they had arrested ve people suspected of involvement in a mutiny by members of the Bangladesh Ri es (BDR) paramilitary force, which killed at least 80 people. Two of those arrested were among the main suspects in the uprising.

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EUROPE

Georgia: Members of opposition groups clashed with police on 9 March during an anti-government demonstration near the parliament building in the capital Tbilisi.

France: Protesters on 19 March clashed with police at Place de La Nation in the capital Paris during a demonstration to mark a nationwide general strike called by trade unions. Police red tear gas to disperse the crowd after protesters reportedly vandalised public property.

Greece: Following unrest resulting from the fatal shooting of a 15-year-old boy by a police of cer in early December 2008, increased activity linked to leftist/anarchist extremists continued in March.

9 Mar: A bomb exploded outside a local branch of • US bank Citigroup in the northern Nea Ionia district of the capital Athens. The anarchist-terrorist group Revolutionary Struggle (EA) claimed responsibility.

8 Mar: Unidenti ed men carried out arson attacks • on two government of ces and a sports store in the Dafni, Kalithea and Agioi Anargyroi areas of Athens; no injuries were reported as a result of the incidents, which caused structural damage to the buildings.

7 Mar: Unidenti ed arsonists set re to several • government vehicles in the city of Thessaloniki.

Separately, at least three people, including two police of cers, were injured on 2 March during clashes between police and Afghan immigrants in the port town of Patras on the Peloponnese peninsula. Police used tear gas to disperse hundreds of immigrants, who set re to several vehicles and litter bins (garbage cans), and disrupted traf c.

Kosovo: At least 50 ethnic-Serb protesters and eight Kosovo Police Service (KPS) of cers were injured in clashes on 8 March. Demonstrators threw stones and other objects at police when they were prevented from blocking a major motorway. Two people were also injured on 7 March when KPS personnel used tear gas to disperse protesters trying to block the main Gnjilane-Bujanovac road.

Netherlands: Police on 12 March arrested six men and one woman, all of Moroccan origin, on suspicion of planning bomb attacks in the Zuidoost suburb of the capital Amsterdam. However, investigators failed to nd any explosives in raids on the suspects’ houses and the authorities subsequently said that there had been no serious threat to security.

Russia: Suspected separatist attacks concentrated in and around the city of Nazran in the North Caucasus republic of Ingushetia continued in March:

5 Mar: At least six people, including the deputy police • chief, were killed and two others injured in an explosion on the outskirts of the city. The bomb reportedly detonated as security personnel attempted to disarm it.

3 Mar: A grenade explosion occurred near the residence • of former president of Ingushetia Murat Zyazikov in Nazran, killing one person. The grenade was red from a vehicle towards Zyazikov’s home, but missed its target, damaging a neighbouring house instead.

Spain: More than 50 people were injured on 18 March in clashes between police and demonstrating students in the northern city of Barcelona. The unrest occurred at the University of Barcelona when police attempted to evict students who had been involved in a sit-in protest against higher education reforms since November 2008.

UK: The Continuity Irish Republican Army (Continuity IRA) terrorist group on 10 March claimed responsibility for the murder of a police of cer in the Lismore Manor area of Craigavon (Co. Armagh, Northern Ireland) the previous night. The group is believed to co-operate with the Real IRA group, which claimed responsibility for a gun re attack on 7 March at the Massereene army base (Co. Antrim) in which British soldiers were killed and four other people injured.

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MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

Algeria: At least two people were killed and ve others injured on 7 March in a suicide bomb attack on the security barracks in the town of Tadmait (Tizi Ouzou province), approximately 60 miles (100km) east of the capital Algiers. No group claimed responsibility for the attack, though main domestic extremist group al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb (QIM) is likely to have carried it out.

In a separate incident, suspected extremists on 11 March killed one police of cer and injured another during a shoot-out in the town of Barika in the north-eastern province of Batna. At least three suspected extremists were killed on the same day in clashes with the security forces in Souk el-Thenine (Tizi Ouzou province).

Egypt: A US national was slightly injured on 27 February in an attack with a pocket knife in the popular Khan al-Khalili tourist area of the capital Cairo; the incident occurred close to the site of a bomb attack on 22 February that killed a French teenager and injured several other people.

Local media reports on 16 March indicated that at least 75 people had been arrested in Cairo in January on suspicion of membership of three groups with alleged links to the domestic Islamist extremist movement. News of the arrests followed complaints to the country’s prosecutor-general by family members of those arrested.

Iraq: At least 12 people were killed and 40 others injured on 5 March when a car bomb exploded in Hamza (Babil province), south of the capital Baghdad. Previously, a suicide car-bomb attack on 4 March killed at least two police of cers at a checkpoint in the northern city of Mosul (Nineveh province).

Israel: A Palestinian construction worker on 5 March drove a bulldozer into a police car before ramming the vehicle into an empty bus; the incident occurred near the Malha shopping centre (mall) in southern Jerusalem. At least two police of cers were injured in the attack. The driver was shot dead by police of cers arriving at the scene.

Separately, police on 22 March defused a partially exploded car bomb placed in the car park of the Lev Hamifratz shopping centre in the northern city of Haifa. A group called the ‘Galilee Free People’s Brigades’ (GFPB) claimed responsibility for planting the device, though the security forces subsequently cast doubt on the claim.

Lebanon: A car bomb on 23 March killed at least ve people outside the southern Palestinian refugee camp of Miyeh Miyeh, near the city of Sidon, 30 miles (48km)

south of the capital Beirut. The explosion hit the passing convoy of Abbas Zaki, the head of the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO) in Lebanon; Zaki was unharmed, but his deputy Kamal Medhat was killed in the blast.

Saudi Arabia: Hundreds of Shia Muslims on 24 February protested near the city of Qatif (Eastern Province) over actions by the mutawwa (religious police) towards Shia pilgrims in the western city of Medina.

Sudan: According to sources in the UN Mission in Sudan (UNMIS), more than 90 people were killed and several thousand others displaced between 5 and 10 March in clashes between armed tribal groups near Likwongole (Jonglei state). Uncon rmed reports stated that more than 400 people may have been killed.

Separately, three foreign employees of aid agency Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) were released on 14 March after being abducted by an unidenti ed armed group three days previously in Sirat Omra, west of el-Fasher (North Darfur state). The abduction occurred after the International Criminal Court on 4 March issued an arrest warrant for President Omar al-Bashir.

Turkey: At least 300 demonstrators clashed with police on 16 March during a protest near the Sütlüce Congress and Cultural Centre in Istanbul against the World Water Forum, which was meeting in the city. Protesters threw stones and injured a police of cer; riot police subsequently used tear gas and water cannon to disperse the crowd.

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In-depth

A tank moves towards the headquarters of the Bangladeshi Ri es in Dhaka on 26 February

BANGLADESH

The number of con rmed casualties continued to rise in early March after a group of paramilitary Bangladeshi Ri es (BDR) personnel mutinied at their headquarters in the capital Dhaka on 25 February. Around 77 people were con rmed dead following the 36-hour uprising, which began when soldiers from the BDR opened re as their director-general, Shakil Ahmed, delivered a speech at their headquarters. Ahmed was killed, along with several other senior of cers. The soldiers mutinied after Ahmed reportedly failed to raise the grievances of junior of cers when he met Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina on 24 February to inaugurate the annual ‘BDR Week’.

After suffering 19 coup attempts in its 38-year history, resulting in the assassination of two presidents, Bangladesh’s political climate remains volatile, with a heated and often violent bipolar competition between the two main political parties. While the Bangladesh National Party (BNP) won only 33 seats in the 300-seat parliament in parliamentary election in December 2008, it won more than one-third of the popular vote, demonstrating that it still retains the capability to fuel widespread unrest through bandhs and hartals (general strikes). These weaknesses are compounded by factionalism within the military and its uneasy relationship with both political parties, latent Islamist extremist threats and a poor economic climate fuelled by the global economic slowdown.

GUATEMALA

The National Civil Police (PNC) on 1 March announced that President Álvaro Colom had received death threats, allegedly from members of Los Zetas, the armed wing of the Mexican Gulf drug cartel. Suspected members of Los Zetas clashed with the police on 5-6 March in the departments of El Quiché, Alta Verapaz and Sololá; at least four people, including two police of cers, were killed and three others were injured in the clashes, while nine suspected drug-traf ckers were arrested.

The cartel’s alleged threats and its apparent latest action against the police may have come in response to a string of arrests related to the drug-traf ckers’ activities in recent months. Two of the leading Mexican drug gangs – the Gulf and Sinaloa cartels – are reportedly ghting for control of the illegal narcotics trade in Guatemala. Drugs gangs are on the rise in the country, undermining its already weak institutional fabric, and the government faces a dif cult task to rein in cartel activities. The greatest problem for Guatemala is that its state institutions are so weak that it requires relatively little effort for organised crime to hijack them.

GUINEA-BISSAU

President João Bernardo Vieira was assassinated on 2 March in an attack on the presidential residence one day after Gen Tagme Na Wai, the chief of staff of the armed forces, was killed in a bomb attack on the military headquarters. The military high command denied that Vieira’s assassination was part of a coup attempt, and on 15 March appointed naval commander Jose Zamora Induta as interim head of the armed forces. Transitional power passes to the National Assembly speaker, who has 60 days to organise a presidential poll.

The military has attributed the assassination of Vieira to an unidenti ed, isolated group of soldiers and has promised to respect the constitution. Despite these assurances, however, the political and security situation remains fragile. The military comprises various competing factions and it is doubtful that the military command can guarantee unity of action. Given that state-level involvement in lucrative drug-traf cking has increased the signi cance of political power, factions within the government and armed forces are likely to vie aggressively for access to narcotics revenue streams, suggesting that a smooth transfer of power is unlikely. Indeed, parliamentary elections in November 2008, described as peaceful and fair by international observers, were followed by an armed attack on the presidential residence and a three-hour gun ght. In this context, clashes are highly likely in the weeks ahead.

Coming up

NEWS AND EVENTS

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COUNTRIES TO WATCH

Argentina: Renewed tensions in a dispute between the government and the agricultural sector have increased the potential for localised unrest.

Comoros: Heightened nationalist sentiment is likely in the run-up to a referendum on 29 March to decide the island of Mayotte’s status as a French department.

Madagascar: Further unrest remains possible following the forced resignation of former president Marc Ravalomanana on 17 March.

Malawi: Sporadic outbreaks of political violence are possible following the arrest of former president Bakili Muluzi in February.

KEY DATES

1-2 Apr – United Kingdom: G20 summit, anti-war demonstrations in London; protests by direct action groups likely.

9 Apr – Algeria: Presidential election; possibility of Islamist extremist attacks, particularly against government buildings and the security forces.

13 Apr – Venezuela: Anniversary of failed coup (2002); protests by government and opposition supporters possible.

17 Apr – Brazil: Anniversary of killing of landless demonstrators (1996); marches, rallies and land invasions likely across the country.