wpa's weekly political brief 120302

WPA’s Weekly Political Brief March 1, 2012

WPA’s Key Weekend Charts

As part of our continuing effort to keep our clients and friends up-to-date on the political

environment as we head toward Election Day, 2012, we’ll be distributing these weekly data updates

every Friday morning.

In each update you can expect to find the following key indicators tracked:

• Direction of the Country

• Obama Job Approval

• National Unemployment

• Obama Approval on the Economy

• Generic Congressional Ballot

• National & per capita debt

In addition, each week we’ll feature a few charts showing what we think is the most interesting and

timely new data from that week. This week we have:

• Trends in the Republican Primary Election

• 2012 Voter Enthusiasm Gap

• American’s opinions on taxing the rich

Weekly Summary

The Republican primary election refuses to stabilize, reflecting the indecision of voters across the

Republican spectrum.

• After wins in Michigan and Arizona Romney has returned to the top, supplanting Santorum

going into Super Tuesday.

Despite the lengthy primary race, Republicans are showing more enthusiasm for voting in 2012.

• Republicans have created an eight point enthusiasm gap.

• Republican enthusiasm, however, is below the 79% the Democrats had in February of

2008.

A recent Hill poll has shown how important question wording is can be. While Americans generally

feel the wealthy should pay more taxes, they also define “wealthy” as those who make more money

than they do, irrespective of their actual income. In fact, when asked what exact percentage of their

income the wealthy should pay, the vast majority of Americans settle on a number substantially less

than the current top income rate.

Americans are unsatisfied with the direction of the country.

Source: Reuters/Ipsos National Poll

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

70.00%

80.00%

90.00%

100.00%

Direction of County

Right Direction Wrong Direction

62%

32%

Obama’s job approval remains steady from last week and is up slightly compared to the end of January.

Source: Real Clear Politics

One Week Ago One Month Ago

Approve 49% 46%

Disapprove 47% 48%

46%

52%

44% 43%

49% 49%

42%

51% 52%

47%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12

Obama Job Approval

Approve Disapprove

Disappointing numbers on gas prices and Gallup’s data indicate conflict with Thursday’s drop in unemployment claims. March 9th will hopefully shed some light on a muddled picture.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics & Gallup Gallup data is not seasonally adjusted

January, 2012 8.3%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

National Unemployment Rate

7.00%7.50%8.00%8.50%9.00%9.50%

10.00%10.50%11.00%11.50%

Gallup Data

9.0% 10.3%

8.3%

Despite glimmers of hope in the economy, Obama’s economic rating has not improved.

Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll

58%

50%

46% 40% 36%

44% 38% 49%

51%

59% 62%

53%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Feb-09 May-09 Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 May-10 Aug-10 Nov-10 Feb-11 May-11 Aug-11 Nov-11 Feb-12

Obama on the Economy

Approve Disapprove

Democrats and Republicans remain tied on the generic ballot.


One Week Ago One Month Ago

Republicans 43% 43%

Democrats 43% 45%

41% 42% 43% 42% 45% 43%

46% 43% 44% 42% 43% 43%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12

Generic Congressional Ballot

Democrat Republican

$49,230

$1,259,339,455,465

$15,415,071,315,156

National debt has risen more than $27,027,285,597 since last week.

Source: USDebtclock.org

U.S. National Debt

Debt Per Citizen

Total U.S. Federal Deficit

The race for the Republican nomination continues its unpredictable trend, with Romney’s success in Arizona and Michigan boosting him back on top nationally going into the potentially decisive Super Tuesday.


33%

27% 28%

35%

15% 16%

34%

30%

18%

31%

15% 15%

14% 13% 12% 11%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Select Points During the Republican Nomination

Romney Santorum Gingrich Paul

Likely

Santorum

Likely

Gingrich

Likely

Romney

Oklahoma Georgia Mass.

Ohio Virginia

Vermont

Of the remaining delegates, 19% will be awarded on Super Tuesday. Recent public polling suggest we may see another split decision between Romney and Santorum causing the nomination fight to continue.

State Georgia Ohio Tennessee Virginia Oklahoma Mass. Idaho North

Dakota Alaska Vermont TOTAL

Delegate 76 66 58 49 43 41 32 28 27 17 437

Super Tuesday Delegate Counts Already Voted Super Tuesday Other

Public Polling Estimates

Despite a brutal drawn-out primary campaign, Republicans are distinctly more excited than Democrats about voting in 2012.

Source: Gallup

58%

49% 53%

45% 44% 45%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12

% More Enthusiastic About Voting Than Usual

Republican/Lean Republican Democrat/Lean Democrat

Ostensibly, a majority of Americans support increasing taxes on the wealthy.

Source: NYT/CBS News, August 2-3, n=960

Increase taxes 63%

DK/NA 3%

Don't increase taxes 34%

In order to lower the nation's budget deficit, do you think taxes should be increased on households earning $250,000 a year or more or should the government address the

budget deficit without increasing taxes on those households?

However, most Americans define “wealthy” as those who are making more than they are.

Source: Reason-Rupe, August 9-18, n=1200

Income

Income Percentile Definition of

“Wealthy”

1% $50,000

25% $200,000

50% (Median) $250,000

75% $500,000

99% $10 billion

In fact when asked what rate the wealthy should be taxed at, the majority of Americans suggest a rate that is actually lower than the current one.

Source: The Hill/Pulse Opinion, February 23, n=1000

Less than 20% Tax Rate 21%

20% Tax Rate 17%

25% Tax Rate 23%

30% Tax Rate 14%

35% Tax Rate 13%

40% Tax Rate 4%

More than 45% Tax Rate 2%

Not sure 5%

Most Appropriate Top Tax Rate for Families earning $250,000 or more?

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wpa's weekly political brief 120302

News & Politics