wpa's weekly political brief 120322
TRANSCRIPT
Page 1
WPA’s Weekly Political Brief March 22, 2012
Page 2
WPA’s Key Weekend Charts
As part of our continuing effort to keep our clients and friends up-to-date on the political
environment as we head toward Election Day, 2012, we’ll be distributing these weekly data updates
every Friday morning.
In each update you can expect to find the following key indicators tracked:
• Direction of the Country
• Obama Job Approval
• National Unemployment
• Obama Approval on the Economy
• Generic Congressional Ballot
• National & per capita debt
In addition, each week we’ll feature a few charts showing what we think is the most interesting and
timely new data from that week. This week we have:
• Why voters see this economy as Obama’s
• Top word association with the Republican Presidential candidates
• Key races where Republicans are restless
Page 3
Weekly Summary
Unlike 2009 and 2010, voters see this economy as being owned by Obama. While voters showed
little correlation between Obama’s approval rating and their confidence in the economy early in the
administration, there is strong correlation now (.88), indicating that Obama will be judged based on
the performance of the economy over the next year.
• Increasing gas prices, and the daily visual reminder of the high cost of living that they represent,
will not help him.
Mitt Romney’s campaign can be grateful that “Mormon” is no longer the top word American’s
associate with him. Unfortunately “no” and “rich” have replaced it.
This week also saw the most recent of several incumbent losses or near losses in Republican
primaries.
• Adam Kinzinger’s defeat of Don Manzullo was less about Tea Party and establishment and more
about a long-serving older incumbent versus a fresh young face.
• This kind of frustration on the part of Republican voters has been evident in the Republican
primary as well, with nearly half the electorate refusing to vote for the “next in line” candidate.
How this dissatisfaction with incumbents will play out in November remains to be seen.
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American’s continue to think their country is going in the wrong direction.
Source: Real Clear Politics
36%
29% 29%
20% 18%
30% 31%
57% 63% 63%
75%
64% 61%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12
Direction of the County
Approve Disapprove
Page 5
Obama’s approval remains split this week.
Source: Real Clear Politics
One Week Ago One Month Ago
Approve 47% 49%
Disapprove 47% 47%
46%
52%
44% 43% 47%
49%
42%
51% 52% 47%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12
Obama Job Approval
Approve Disapprove
Page 6
Gallup’s unadjusted unemployment declined to 8.8% in mid-March.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics & Gallup Gallup data is not seasonally adjusted
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
National Unemployment Rate
February, 2012 8.3%
7.00%7.50%8.00%8.50%9.00%9.50%
10.00%10.50%11.00%11.50%
Gallup Data
8.8%
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$137,516
$1,316,629,981,259
$15,571,660,178,261
Each taxpayer’s share of the debt increased $516 since last week.
Source: USDebtclock.org
U.S. National Debt
Debt Per Taxpayer
Federal Budget Deficit
Page 8
Most American’s feel that President Obama is not handling the economy very well.
Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll
58%
50%
46%
40% 36%
41% 38%
38% 49%
51%
59% 62%
56% 59%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Feb-09 May-09 Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 May-10 Aug-10 Nov-10 Feb-11 May-11 Aug-11 Nov-11 Feb-12
Obama on the Economy
Approve Disapprove
Page 9
After weeks spent with a near tie, Republicans have taken a slight edge on the generic ballot.
Source: Real Clear Politics
One Week Ago One Month Ago
Republicans 44% 44%
Democrats 43% 43%
41% 42% 43% 42% 45% 44% 43%
46% 43% 44% 42% 43% 43% 45%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12
Generic Congressional Ballot
Democrat Republican
Page 10
President Obama’s job approval shows a very strong correlation with overall economic confidence in 2012. Unlike in 2009 and 2010, voters appear to feel the President owns this economy now.
Source: Gallup, Image © Clay Bennett
Year Correlation
2001 .71
2002 .03
2003 .68
2004 .79
2005 .40
2006 .37
2007 .11
2008 .51
2009 .03
2010 .11
2011 .39
2012 .88
Rising gas prices will only
reinforce American’s
negative associations with
the economic consequences
of the Administration’s
policies.
Statistical Relationship
Between Presidential Job
Approval and Gallup
Economic Confidence Index
Page 11
Republican voters have shown themselves to be unsatisfied with incumbents in key races across the country. This restlessness has shown itself nationally in the Presidential primary and will manifest again in the general election.
Source: Gallup
44%
Don Manzullo
56%
Adam Kinzinger
43%
Jean Schmidt
49%
Brad Wenstrup
Page 12
“Mormon” is no longer the top word associated with Mitt Romney. Unfortunately “no” and “rich” have replaced it among Americans overall.
Source: Washington Post-Pew Research Center
Romney
• No
• Rich
• Good
• Mormon
• Moderate
• Business
• Flip flop
Santorum
• Conservative
• No
• Good
• Ok
• Crazy
• Religious
• Too conservative
Gingrich
• Old
• No
• Idiot
• Untrustworthy
• Dislike
• Smart
• Intelligent
Paul
• No
• Old
• Libertarian
• Honest
• Crazy
• Good
• Too old
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