wpa's weekly political brief 120810
TRANSCRIPT
Page 1
WPA’s Weekly Political Brief August 10, 2012
Page 2
WPA’s Weekly Political Brief
As part of our continuing effort to keep our clients and friends up-to-date on the political environment
as we head toward Election Day, 2012, we’ll be distributing these weekly data updates every Friday.
In each update you can expect to find the following key indicators tracked:
• Direction of the Country
• Obama Job Approval
• National Unemployment
• Obama Approval on the Economy
• Generic Congressional Ballot
• National & per capita debt
• Romney vs. Obama
In addition, each week we’ll feature a few charts showing what we think is the most interesting and
timely new data from that week. This week we have:
• A look at economic confidence levels.
• The correlation between GDP growth and incumbent reelection margin.
• An example of how ObamaCare will impact businesses.
Page 3
Weekly Summary
• Economic confidence fell for the second straight month among all Americans (pg. 9).
o The modest improvement since the beginning of the year reversed as more
Americans begin to hold a pessimistic view of the economy.
• The Gallup Economic Confidence Index was negative for all 50 states in the first half
of 2012 (pg. 10).
o In the 12 states with the highest economic confidence rating, 8 have Republican
governors.
• There is a strong relationship between GDP growth and the incumbent reelection
margin (pg. 12).
o Obama’s inability to rejuvenate the economy casts serious doubt on his
reelection prospects.
• When ObamaCare is implemented in 2014, its heavy burden will weigh upon many
individuals and businesses (pg. 14).
o The price of a Papa Johns pizza will increase $0.14 due to ObamaCare, which
underscores the fact that it is an enormous tax.
Page 4
Less than 30% of Americans feel as though the nation is on the right track.
Source: Real Clear Politics
One Month Ago One Year Ago
Right Direction 32% 17%
Wrong Track 62% 77%
29% 27% 29% 31% 31% 30% 28% 27%
17% 19%
31% 30% 32% 29%
47%
66% 62% 64% 63% 64%
66% 64%
77% 74%
61% 62% 62% 65%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Jan
-10
Fe
b-1
0
Ma
r-1
0
Ap
r-1
0
Ma
y-1
0
Jun
-10
Jul-1
0
Au
g-1
0
Se
p-1
0
Oct-
10
Nov-1
0
De
c-1
0
Jan
-11
Fe
b-1
1
Ma
r-1
1
Ap
r-1
1
Ma
y-1
1
Jun
-11
Jul-1
1
Au
g-1
1
Se
p-1
1
Oct-
11
Nov-1
1
De
c-1
1
Jan
-12
Fe
b-1
2
Ma
r-1
2
Ap
r-1
2
Ma
y-1
2
Jun
-12
Jul-1
2
Au
g-1
2
Direction of the Country
Right Direction Wrong Track
2010 Election
Page 5
Obama’s job approval remains below 50% for 15th consecutive month.
Source: Real Clear Politics
One Week Ago One Month Ago
Approve 46% 46%
Disapprove 50% 49%
46%
52%
44% 43% 44% 44% 46% 46%
49%
47%
48% 49%
47% 46% 47%
49%
42%
51% 52% 51% 50% 48% 48%
47%
48%
47% 48%
50% 49% 49%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12
Obama Job Approval
Approve Disapprove
Page 6
$50,793
$139,815
$15,955,258,894,158
The national debt steadily approaches $16 Trillion.
Source: USDebtclock.org
U.S. National Debt
Debt Per Citizen
Debt Per Taxpayer
Page 7
Republicans continue to maintain a lead over Democrats on the generic congressional ballot.
Source: Real Clear Politics Seat change includes Congressional and Senate gains
R+7 seats R+69 seats D+29 seats D+37 seats
41% 42% 43% 42% 45% 44% 43%
41% 43% 41% 41% 43%
46% 43% 44% 42% 43% 44% 45%
41% 46%
43% 43% 44%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Generic Congressional Ballot
Democrat Republican
49% 46% 43% 52% 47% 54% 53%
45%
0%
50%
100%
2004 2006 2008 2010
Previous Election Day Generic Ballots
Page 8
Less than 40% of Americans approve of Obama’s handling of the economy.
Source: Pollster.com
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
Obama Economic Approval
Approve Disapprove
53%
39%
2010 Election
Page 9
Economic confidence fell for the second straight month among all Americans. The modest improvement since the beginning of the year reversed as more Americans hold a pessimistic view of the economy.
15
23
17
0
5
10
15
20
25
January April July
2012 Small Business Owners' Confidence
-27
-23
-19 -21
-17
-22
-26
-29
-24
-19
-14
-9
-4
1
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
2012 Gallup Economic Confidence Index
Source: Gallup
Page 10
The Gallup Economic Confidence Index was negative for all 50 states in the first half of 2012. In the 12 states with the highest economic confidence rating, 8 have Republican governors.
Source: Gallup
-6
-8 -9
-10 -10 -11
-14 -15
-16 -16 -16
-19 -20
-18
-16
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
MN SD MD ND IA HI NE UT VA TX MA WI
Top 12 States with the Highest Economic Confidence Rating
Page 11
Job creation continues to underperform what is necessary to begin real economic recovery.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
125,000 =
Number of new
jobs needed to
keep pace with
population
growth
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
National Unemployment Rate
July 2012 8.3%
87,000 64,000
163,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
May June July
Jobs Created by Month
Page 12
There is a strong correlation between GDP growth and the incumbent presidential reelection margin. Obama’s inability to rejuvenate the economy casts serious doubt on his reelection prospects.
Source: Center for Politics
Carter
H.W. Bush
Ford
Obama W. Bush
Clinton
Johnson
Reagan
Nixon
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Correlation between GDP Growth and Incumbent Reelection Margin
Incumbent
Reelection
Margin
Real GDP Growth in
Reelection Year
Correlation = 0.76
Page 13
The race between Obama and Romney remains a dead-heat heading into the final three months of the election cycle.
Source: Real Clear Politics
47% 49% 49% 49% 47% 49% 47% 46% 46% 45% 47% 47% 46% 46%
46% 43% 45% 44% 43% 45% 44% 45%
43% 45% 44% 44% 45% 45%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1-Jan 15-Jan 1-Feb 15-Feb 1-Mar 15-Mar 1-Apr 15-Apr 1-May 15-May 1-Jun 15-Jun 1-Jul 15-Jul 1-Aug
Obama vs. Romney
Obama Romney
Page 14
When Obamacare is implemented in 2014, its heavy burden will weigh upon many individuals and small businesses. In a real world example that surfaced this week, the price of a Papa Johns pizza will increase $0.14 due to Obamacare.
Tan Tax
•10% tax hike
Medicare surtaxes
•3.8% surtax
Consumer penalties
•2014: $285 or 1% of total household income (whichever is greater)
•2015: $975 or 2% of total household income (whichever is greater)
•2016: $2,085 or 2.5% of total household income (whichever is greater)
Flex spending account limits
•2013: Flexible spending accounts capped at $2,500 with limits on what can be bought with them
Pharmaceutical industry fees
•2013: $2.8 billion
•2014-2016: $3.0 billion
•2017: $4.0 billion
•2018: $4.1 billion
•2019 and beyond: $2,8 billion
Insurance industry fees
•2014: $8 billion
•2015-2016: $11.3 billion
•2017: $13.9 billion
•2018: $14.3 billion
$500 billion Tax Increase
$8.29
$8.43
$8.20
$8.25
$8.30
$8.35
$8.40
$8.45
Current Price After Obamacare
Price of a Papa Johns Pizza
Source: CBS News
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