What Will Education Look Like During the 21st Century?

• By: Ken Stevenson• University of South Carolina

First, What’s Occurring in the US that’s Driving Educational Trends?

• BIRTH PATTERNS• AGING POPULATION• FAMILY STATUS• VALUE OF AN EDUCATION• TECHNOLOGY• CULTURE

1. Birth Patterns Are Changing

• 2.1 BIRTHS/FEMALE = ZERO POPULATION

• THE U.S.– 1.7 = WHITES– 2.4 = AFRICAN AMERICANS– 2.9 = MEXICAN AMERS.– 3.1 = PUERTO RICANS

Percent children white, Af. Amer., Hispanic -Hernandez, The Future of Children

01020304050607080

1980 2000 2020 2040

WHITEAF. AMERHISPANIC

Children of the 21st Century

• More diverse in values, culture, priorities

• Poorer

• Greater health problems

• Less home stability

• Fewer “pre-school” educational experiences

• Less likely to come to school ready to learn

• Parents likely were not successful in school

2. WE’RE GETTING OLDER

U.S. House Committee on the Budget:

Facing the challenge of the 21st Century

SOME AGE TRENDS• FIRST BABY

BOOMERS TURNED 50 IN 1996

• 18 YEAR OLDS AND UNDER ARE NOW 34% OF POPULATION– BY NEXT DECADE

THEY WILL REPRESENT 25%

•

3. Family Status Continues to Change

• 1955, 60% OF HOUSEHOLDS WERE OZZIE, HARRIET, DAVID, AND RICKY

• TODAY, ONLY 7% ARE– 60+% OF WOMEN ARE IN WORK

FORCE• GROWING EACH YR.

• 40 OF 100 CHILDREN WILL LIVE WITH ONE PARENT BY AGE 18

4. Education Continues to Grow in Importance

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1955 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Bachelor Degrees

• Education = Employment – 13% WITHOUT HIGH SCHOOL DIPLOMA

UNEMPLOYED– LESS THAN 2% WITH COLLEGE DEGREE

UNEMPLOYED

• Education = Quality of Life– FEMALE, SINGLE, PARENT, DROPOUT =

80% IN POVERTY– MARRIED COUPLE, ONE WITH COLLEGE

DEGREE, NO CHILDREN = LESS THAN 1% IN POVERTY

5. Technology Grows - & Grows!

"Since 1984, the country has experienced more than a five-fold increase in the proportion of households with computers," said Census Bureau analyst Eric Newburger, author of Home Computers and Internet Use in the United States: August 2000. "In addition, Internet use is rapidly becoming synonymous with computer availability."

Technology is in the hands of students:

US Census Bureau • “A ratio of 9-in-10 school-age

children (6-to-17 years old) had access to a computer in 2000, with 4-in-5 using a computer at school and 2-in-3 with one at home.”

• “About 77 percent of White non-Hispanic and 72 percent of Asian and Pacific Islander children lived in households with computers, while only 43 percent of African American children and 37 percent of Hispanic children did.”

6. A Changing Culture

• PLURALISM AND DIVERSITY

• “I” GENERATIONS

• MORE CONSERVATIVE VIEW OF GOVERNMENT

• FEAR & VIOLENCE

Cocooning Ourselves From Reality?

How will the Six General Trends Affect Education? Let’s Look at

the Possibilities

Immediate and Intermediate Trends of the Future:

A Baker’s Dozen

Trend 1: Disappearance of attendance lines/zones

VS.

Trend 2: Return to smaller, neighborhood schools

Or many smaller in the bigger?

Trend 3: Schools develop unique personalities

Technology-based curriculum

Arts-based curriculum

“3r’s-basedcurriculum

VS.

New Definition of “Fairness?”

Return to the neighborhood: The “Balkanization of America?

Trend 4: Continued reduction of teacher/pupil ratios

Today Tomorrow

Trend 5: Technology dominates schooling throughout the U.S.

School: Learning from the “Outside to the “Inside” (Classrooms as

staging centers)

Virtual Classmates?

One Vision: Teachers become technical team managers (Master

Teachers)

Teacher as “doctor” with the technical support team?

Trend 6: Schools become full service agencies

Schools will be as much about adult education and service as traditional schooling.

Trend 7: The curriculum becomes more narrowly defined

– Or, does it?

Phys. Ed.?

Music?

Art?

Sight

Taste Touch

HearingSmell

Trend 8: Schools will be about learning and teaching styles

Trend 9: Student as worker

Past:Teacher as all-knowing

Future: Teacher as facilitator

School year will approach 240 days.

Trend 10: School time expands:Extended and Year Round

School day willApproach 8 hours

Trend 11: Paperless Schools

Trend 12: Grades will be grouped differently

K-5? K-8? K-12?

Trend 13: No School?(At least as we now know it??)

A “commodity” to be sought at the will and ability of the purchaser?

Virtual School?

What to do: A) Base decisions on HARD data

whenever possible

What to do: B) Remember that you never arrive

Today’s accomplishments are merely building blocks to the “next” future

What to do: C) View schools as community centers for adults and children

• K-12 Education• Adult Education• Social Services• Health Services• Recreation• Transportation Services• Food Services• Contract Business Use

What to do:D) Plan and construct schools

with the trends in mind• Build schools:

– that are highly flexible– with security and safety as high priorities– that support technology today – and tomorrow– which are durable

– Use of 16 hours daily, year round

– That are inviting and important to the community as a whole

What to do: E) Scan the environment

continuously. Who really knows what’s on the horizon?

In closing: Why not create your future?!

Yesterday is not ours to recover, but tomorrow is ours to win or lose. * Lyndon B. Johnson

Morning comes whether you set the alarm or not. * Ursula K. Le Guin