What Lies Over the Horizon? Scenarios to the Future of the Social Sciences

Shermon CruzUniversity Center for Research and Development Northwestern University;Center for Engaged Foresight

World Social Science Forum 2013Palais De CongresMontreal, Quebec, Canada

Outline

background, rationale, research question research methods – futures triangle, scenario archetypes, INSPECT methodkey drivers / drivers of change / influencers scenarios to the future of the social sciences conclusion

knowledge divides: homogenous / singular

knowledge multiplies: heterogenous / plural

Closed digitization: Commercial

Open digitization:

Public

What is the futures of the social sciences in the era of digitization and social transformations?What are the emerging trends, the pulls, the pushes and weights that might limit or transform the future of the social sciences?

What are the possible, plausible and preferred social science scenarios in the year 2040? What might the social science discipline look like in those years?What lies over the horizon?

Defining, vision, competing images; leads us forward

Deep structures, barriers Quantitative drivers of change, the news headlines, trends

Game changers, wildcardsBest possible circumstances, transform

Current trends worsens Status quo continues

scenarios are written narratives of alternative environments designed to highlight the risks and opportunities involved in specific strategic issues (Ogilvy, Schwartz, 1998)

scenarios are written narratives of alternative environments designed to highlight the risks and opportunities involved in specific strategic issues(Glenn, 2013).

Similar to writing a movie script (Schwartz, 1998).

Royal Dutch Shell

Rand Corporation

National Intelligence Council

World Economic Forum

Etc.

Why futures methods?

“The future is an asset, a resource, a narrative waiting to be employed”

Sohail Inayatullah, 2013

Imagining/creating alternative futures could make our present remarkable, significant

Formulating the scenario worlds

It used the proceedings of the 1999 and 2010 World Social Science Report and navigated the World Wide Web for relevant and related print and digital texts (journals, books, articles, reports, essays, speeches, blogs) that explored and/or imagined (logical, critical and creative) the future of the social sciences.

scanned possible futures using the Google search, Google scholar, books, manuscripts, visions, and other scenario documents/report (print and digital) to peer into what the future could look like in 2040.INSPECT (innovations, nature, society, political, economic, cultural, technology) to scan and identify trends, drivers and emerging issues

We narrowed our list and deliberated on its importance and uncertaintyWe identified the drivers based on our assumption that they are the most significant shapers to the future of the social sciences. We organized them into constellations and were used as building blocks to create our four alternative social science future worlds.

Purpose

not to ‘predict the future’ but rather to anticipate events and leverage the changes driving the field’s futureto offer an alternative view and participate in the global conversation to create meaningful debates and engage social scientists, academics and practitioners to a broad range of futures questions and conversations

to challenge our fundamental assumptions, probe received wisdom, reframe our visions and liberate our attitude towards the future of the social sciences

There’s No Line on the Horizon: Push, Pushes and Weights of Social Science Futures

setting the scene:

enter the world of 2040

drivers of change / influencers

epistemic complexity

digitization

University futures

Sustainability

Perception of the future

Emerging technology

rebuilding the mosaic damaged social sciences

multiplex conception gaming the social sciences

Rebuilding the Mosaic: universal, historical, global

“Modernity is the key theme and condition of the social sciences…this situation has now become global; even those who may want to reject it or modify this predicament cannot avoid seeing themselves confronted with the modernist claim. Given its European and American roots, there is always the risk that this concern with modernity will be cast in parochial terms.”

Peter Wagner, 1999

Social science course catalogue in 2040

Philosophy I, II and III

World History I, II and III

Civilizations I, II and III

Ethics I, II and III

Government and Politics I, II and III

Self, Culture and Society I, II and III

Social Science Inquiry I, II and III

Classics of Social, Political and Economic Thought I, II and III

Colonization and Western Civilizations

Introduction to World Civilizations I, II and III

Introductions to Linguistics I, II and III

The Complex Problem of World Hunger

Problems in the study of Gender, Sexuality

Anthropology of Museums

Damaged social sciences: crisis prone, bad, fragmented

“So what’s to be done now that big trouble has finally arrived on so many fronts? To be brutally honest, we have no idea and even less advice.”

Richard Watson and Oliver Freeman, 2012

Damaged social

sciences

Unemployed social scientists

Unequal degree of internationalization

Knowledge fragmentation

Donor driven/ brain drain

Lack of pluralism and foresight

Knowledge/digital divides

Budget cuts/ closure

2040 Social Science Courses (Fragmented)

‘University’

(singular, universal, individual oriented, homogenous,

Eurocentric, positivist)

‘Multiversity’

(diverse, plural, people oriented, heterogenous

indigenization, decolonized)

Psychology Folk Psychology / Cross-cultural psychology

Sociology Arabic Sociology / African Sociology / Chinese Sociology /

Indian Sociology / Malay Sociology, etc.

Philosophy Arabic Philosophy / Indian Philosophy / Chinese Philosophy /

Malay Philosophy / African Philosophy, etc.

Political Thought and Human Identity Arabic Thought and Identity / Indian Thought and Identity /

Chinese Thought and Identity / Malay Thought and Identity /

African Thought and Identity, etc.

Universal Human rights Culture/Context based human rights / Standpoint

Anthropology Europology

Multiplex Conception: hybrid, plural, integrated

“When I use a word,” Humpty Dumpty said, in rather a scornful tone, “it means just what I choose it to mean—neither more nor less.”

“The question is,” said Alice, “whether you can make words mean so many different things.”

trans-disciplinary

everywhere is the center /

beyond the ivory tower /pluralized

useful - personal, policy,

movements

Great scopes

massive increases and

demands

open access

Gaming the social sciences: gamed, roboticized, space and foresight driven

“Video games are one step before a whole other virtual universe”

Vin Diesel

Gaming

Post-disciplinary

Occupied

Gamed/virtualized

Transmedia

Robotics / Space Driven

Open access

Spirituality

Aging

Social Science Catalogue in a Gaming Scenario

Reality Engineering Coding and Decoding

Home Economics Iteration Mapping

Myth and Magic Micropolitics Macrohistory

Futures Studies Video Literacy

Play Photography Negotiation Translation

Food Robotics

Spirituality and Social TransformationBig History and Galaxies

Decolonization

Conclusion

- We have created plausible four alternative social science future environments - rebuilding the mosaic, damaged, multiplex, gamed.

- Backcasting method and futures wheel analysis must be applied to put more content and provide specifics/actionable items – policies, program of actions, outline to achieved a preferred/ aspired future (a survey, an FI or FGD is appropriate here)

- The present is a conduit to the four alternative futures. Scenarios are dynamic, they are pathways to alternative futures

To change the future, we have to change the core narrative (Inayatullah, 2013)Serves as a mental model, images of an alternative future environmentsCulture eats strategy for breakfast (Inayatullah, 2013) . We have to analyze the future of the social sciences in multiple spaces / perspectives (scenarios at the local, regional is even better – contextual, grounded, situated). Not predictions but alternative narratives of social science futures Re-perceive the social sciences

Maraming Salamat! (Thank you!)